SOCIAL SECURITY AND THE POOR: Choices for Developing Countries

There is an urgent need to provide an effective safety net forthe poorest in societies ranging from socialist countries undergoingreform to Sub-Saharan African economies. This article examinessocial security systems in industrial countries and explorestheir relevance to developing countries. The objective of socialsecurity is defined broadly as public action, including thatby communities, to protect the poor and vulnerable from adversechanges in living standards. Relevant instruments include employmentand income guarantees, and also such formal policy instrumentsas assistance, social insurance, and family allowances. Thearticle highlights issues that arise in providing social securityin developing countries, particularly its effectiveness in protectingthe target groups.      

GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: Trends, Causes, and Consequences

Throughout the twentieth century governments have been spendingever larger proportions of national income. Three issues arisein discussions about the growth of such spending as it pertainsto developing countries: How does it compare with expenditurein industrial nations? What explains the growth in spendingby developing country governments? And what are the effectson economic growth? Government expenditure as a share of GDPin low- and middle-income countries, on average, is lower thancomparable shares in industrial market economies and, with fewexceptions, is growing. Many factors, including ideology, demographics,a positive income elasticity for public goods, the rising costof public goods relative to private goods, and perhaps developmenttheory and practice, explain this growth. As for the relationshipbetween government expenditure and economic growth, the empiricalevidence does not reveal any strong correlation. The size ofgovernment may engender strong ideological debate, but the positionthat the aggregate level of government expenditure is a significantdeterminant of growth rates receives little support.      

SOME LESSONS FROM THE EAST ASIAN MIRACLE

The rapid economic growth of eight East Asian economies, oftencalled the "East Asian miracle, " raises two questions: Whatpolicies and other factors contributed to that growth? And canother developing countries replicate those policies to stimulateequally rapid growth? This article, based on case studies, econometric data, and economictheory, offers a list of the ingredients that contributed tothat success. But it is the combination of these ingredients,many of which involve government interventions acting together,that accounts for East Asia's success.      

Rural Poverty: Old Challenges in New Contexts

Poverty is still a predominantly rural phenomenon. However,the context of rural poverty has been changing across the world,with high growth in some economies and stagnation in others.Furthermore, increased openness in many economies has affectedthe specific role of agricultural growth for rural poverty reduction.This paper revisits an ‘old’ question: how doesgrowth and poverty reduction come about if most of the poorlive in rural areas and are dependent on agriculture? What isthe role of agricultural and rural development in this respect?Focusing on Sub-Saharan Africa, and using economic theory andthe available evidence, the author comes to the conclusion thatchanging contexts has meant that agricultural growth is onlycrucial as an engine for growth in particular settings, morespecifically in landlocked, resource-poor countries, which areoften also characterized by relatively low potential for agriculture.However, extensive market failures in key factor markets andlikely spatial effects give a remaining crucial role for ruraldevelopment policies, including focusing on agriculture, toassist the inclusion of the rural poor in growth and development.How to overcome these market failures remains a key issue forfurther research. JEL codes: O41, Q10, O55     

Globalization, Poverty, and Inequality since 1980

One of the most contentious issues of globalization is the effectof global economic integration on inequality and poverty. Thisarticle documents five trends in the modern era of globalization,starting around 1980. The first trend is that growth rates inpoor economies have accelerated and are higher than growth ratesin rich countries for the first time in modern history. Developingcountries’ per capita incomes grew more than 3.5 percenta year in the 1990s. Second, the number of extremely poor peoplein the world has declined significantly—by 375 millionpeople since 1981—for the time in history. The share ofpeople in developing economies living on less than $1 a dayhas been cut in half since 1981, though the decline in the shareliving on less than $2 per day was much less dramatic. Third,global inequality has declined modestly, reversing a 200-yeartrend toward higher inequality. Fourth, within-country inequalityin general is not growing, though it has risen in several populouscountries (China, India, the United States). Fifth, wage inequalityis rising worldwide. This may seem to contradict the fourthtrend, but it does not because there is no simple link betweenwage inequality and household income inequality. Furthermore,the trends toward faster growth and poverty reduction are strongestin developing economies that have integrated with the globaleconomy most rapidly, which supports the view that integrationhas been a positive force for improving the lives of peoplein developing areas.      

THE IMPACT OF EC-92 ON TRADE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

How is the attempt of the European Community (EC) to createa single market going to affect the developing countries? Thisarticle argues that the net direct effects of EC-92 may be rathersmall: the trade creation and trade diversion effects broughtabout by the program may cancel each other out, with few repercussionsfor the developing countries as a group. The expected changesin trade flows arising from relatively small changes in nominalprices and aggregate incomes, the changes in market structure,the removal of internal barriers, and a predicted 5 percentincrease in EC output may be important to European policymakers,but they are rather remote from the developing countries. The threat of EC-92 to the developing countries lies elsewhere:from diversion of investment from those countries to the ECand from the resurrection of protectionism by the EC, especiallyin the form of nontariff barriers, toward the outside world.      

Foreign Bank Entry: Experience, Implications for Developing Economies, and Agenda for Further Research

In recent years foreign banks have expanded their presence significantlyin several developing economies. In Argentina and Chile in LatinAmerica and in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland in EasternEurope, foreign-controlled banks now hold more than half oftotal banking assets. In other regions the trend is similar,though foreign bank entry has been slower. Despite the growingnumber of countries embracing foreign bank entry, importantquestions are still being debated: What draws foreign banksto a country? Which banks expand abroad? What do foreign banksdo once they arrive? How do foreign banks' mode of entry andorganizational form affect their behavior? This article summarizescurrent knowledge on these issues. Because the existing literaturefocuses heavily on developed economies, it also puts forth anagenda for further study of the causes and effects of foreignbank entry in developing economies.      

Monetary policy spillovers and the trilemma in the new normal: Periphery country sensitivity to core country conditions

We investigate why and how the financial conditions of developing and emerging market countries (peripheral countries) can be affected by the movements in the center economies – the U.S., Japan, the Eurozone, and China. We apply a two-step approach. First, we estimate the sensitivity of countries' financial variables to the center economies [policy interest rate, stock market prices, and the real effective exchange rates (REER)] while controlling for global and domestic factors. Next, we examine the association of the estimated sensitivity coefficients with the macroeconomic conditions, policies, real and financial linkages with the center economies, and the level of institutional development. In the last two decades, for most financial variables, the strength of the links with the center economies have been the dominant factor while the movements of policy interest rate also appear sensitive to global financial shocks around the emerging market crises of the late 1990s and since the global financial crisis of 2008. While certain macroeconomic and institutional variables are important, the arrangement of open macropolicies such as the exchange rate regime and financial openness are also found to have direct influence on the sensitivity to the center economies. An economy that pursues greater exchange rate stability and financial openness faces a stronger link with the center economies through policy interest rates and real effective exchange rate (REER) movements. We also find that exchange market pressure (EMP) in peripheral economies is sensitive to the movements of the center economies' REER and EMP during and after the global financial crisis. Open macro policy arrangements, especially exchange rate regimes, also have indirect effects on the strength of financial linkages, interacting with other macroeconomic conditions. Thus, trilemma policy arrangements, including exchange rate flexibility, continue to affect the sensitivity of developing countries to policy changes and shocks in the center economies.     

EMERGING EQUITY MARKETS: GROWTH, BENEFITS, AND POLICY CONCERNS

Since the mid-1980s, stock market activity has increased substantiallyin many developing countries. This article first examines themain characteristics of emerging stock markets and illustratesthe evolution of equity prices in these markets during the lastdecade. It then discusses the reasons for the markets' growthand assesses the extent to which they have been affected bydomestic policies and external factors. The authors discussthe likely benefits of these markets, the effects any abruptcorrection in stock prices could have for the economy, and theways in which these markets can be made more efficient.      

How Effective Are Second-Generation Road Funds? A Preliminary Appraisal

Underfunded, inefficient road maintenance is a perennial problemin many developing economies. To address it, some countrieshave created "second-generation" road funds that are financedby fuel levies and managed by boards representing the interestsof road users. Macroeconomists often oppose such funds, arguingthat this earmarking of revenue reduces fiscal flexibility.Some argue that such road funds should be seen as an interimstep toward fully commercialized road maintenance or good publicsector governance—and hence subject to sunset provisions.Decisions on whether to retain (or create) such funds shouldthen be based on their effects on resource allocation, operationalefficiency, and rent seeking. Using evidence on new road fundsin Africa, this article finds that they have not underminedfiscal flexibility. Moreover, they have improved the administrationof road funding (in terms of execution capability) and its outputs(in terms of road conditions). So, although criteria for assessingroad funds remain relevant, the funds should not automaticallybe considered temporary mechanisms. But when establishing newfunds, government's continued role in approving spending onroad maintenance should be explicitly recognized.      

Evaluating Recipes for Development Success

This article offers a provocative critique of the ability ofresearch on the impact of institutions on growth to offer immediateand practical recommendations for reforming and redesigninginstitutions in developing countries and transition economies.The literature traces the sources of growth to unalterable historicaland geographic features. It contains equally plausible recommendationsfor opposite courses of action. It is sometimes driven by fadsor recommends imitation of the latest success story. Some recommendationsare too vague or too general to constitute practical advice.The article suggests a Bayesian diagnostic procedure to identifythe causes of economic failure in an individual country as afirst step toward remedying the failure. JEL codes: O43, O17, O20, P30, P48     

SHELTER STRATEGIES FOR THE URBAN POOR IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Rapid growth in many developing-country cities is strainingthe capacity of their shelter delivery systems. Governmentshave chosen a variety of implicit and explicit policies to amelioratethese strains. However, these policies are not always consistentwith their objectives, often because of a lack of knowledgeof how housing markets actually work and how policies affectand are constrained by market behavior. This paper reviews recentresearch on housing market behavior in developing countries,including the demand for housing and the pattern of housinginvestment across countries, the financing of housing by low-incomehouseholds, and the willingness to pay for secure tenure. Commonhousing policies are then examined, including public housing,sites and services projects, and slum clearance versus upgrading.Rent controls, measures to improve the supply of finance andinfrastructure, and building codes and standards are also discussed.      

WAGE CONTROLS DURING THE TRANSITION FROM CENTRAL PLANNING TO A MARKET ECONOMY

Wage controls have been integral to the stabilization programsof the formerly socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europethat are now moving toward market economies. The usual rationalefor such restraints in "heterodox" stabilization efforts hasbeen the need to break the momentum of inflationary expectations.In economies in transition the pervasive weakness of governanceof state enterprises supplies an added imperative: the controlsare needed to hold the line against pressures for excessivewage increases, which must ultimately be paid for by decapitalizationof firms, reduction of tax revenues, or accumulation of enterprisedebt. Examination of the design and enforcement of various systemsof wage control leads to the conclusion that wage controls inevitablydistort decisions on employment and work effort. These distortions,moreover, are the result of the same features of state enterprisesthat necessitate wage controls in the first place. Ultimately,the only way to avoid such distortions is to remove uncertaintyabout the timing of privatization, to ensure that workers andmanagement have a well-defined stake in the newly privatizedfirms, and to establish financial discipline over the enterprises.      

Deregulating the Transfer of Agricultural Technology: Lessons from Bangladesh, India, Turkey, and Zimbabwe

Many transition and developing economies have reduced directpublic involvement in the production and trade of seed and otheragricultural inputs. This trend creates opportunities for farmersto realize improved access to inputs, including technology frominternational private research. Unfortunately, input regulationsoften derail these opportunities by blocking private entry andthe introduction of private technology. This study looks atthe experience in Bangladesh, India, Turkey, and Zimbabwe tosee whether regulations make a difference in agriculture andinput industries in developing economies. In all countries,companies and farmers responded to regulatory reforms by introducingand adopting more new technology and by expanding the production,trade, and use of inputs. The increased use of private technologyhas brought higher yields and incomes, allowing farmers andconsumers to reach higher levels of welfare. These results challengegovernments to open their regulatory systems to allow marketentry and the introduction of private technology through seedsand other inputs.      

Lessons in Structuring Derivatives Exchanges

The global deregulation of financial markets has created newinvestment opportunities, which in turn require the developmentof new instruments to deal with the increased risks. Institutionalinvestors who are actively engaged in industrial and emergingmarkets need to hedge their risks from these cross border transactions.Agents in liberalized market economies who are exposed to volatilecommodity price and interest rate changes require appropriatehedging products to deal with them. And the economic expansionin emerging economies demands that corporations find betterways to manage financial and commodity risks. The instrumentsthat allow market participants to manage risk are known as derivativesbecause they represent contracts whose payoff at expirationis determined by the price of the underlying asset a currency,an interest rate, a commodity, or a stock. Derivatives are tradedin organized exchanges or over the counter by derivatives dealers.Since the mid-1980s the number of derivatives exchanges operatingin both industrial and emerging-market economies has increasedsubstantially. What benefits do these exchanges provide to investorsand to the home country? Are they a good idea? Emerging marketscan capture important benefits, including the ability to transferrisks, enhance public information, and lower transaction costs,but the success of a derivatives exchange depends on the soundnessof the foundations on which it is built, the structure thatis adopted, and the products that are traded.      

SOUTH-SOUTH TRADE: Theory, Evidence, and Policy

Recently a number of commentators have argued that trade policyin developing countries should be deployed discriminatorilyto encourage the expansion of trade among southern countries.Such a strategy is seen as being central in the framing of anew international economic order. This article evaluates thearguments in favor of a relative expansion of South-South tradeand reviews the experience of developing countries with discriminatoryregional trading arrangements. It contends that the case forspecific policies to promote South-South trade is not convincingand that experience with discriminatory arrangements is notencouraging. The expansion of South-South trade can be expectedto continue in the context of multilateral trade expansion,and the potential gains are likely to be greater if this processis allowed to evolve freely in a multilateral setting.      

Vouchers for Basic Education in Developing Economies: An Accountability Perspective

Advocates argue that voucher programs can correct the incentiveproblems of education systems in developing economies. An accountabilityperspective, based on a principal-agent framework, was developedto clarify the arguments for and against education vouchers.An assessment of findings on voucher programs in industrialcountries and a review of voucher or quasi-voucher experiencesin Bangladesh, Chile, Colombia, Côte d'Ivoire, and theCzech Republic support the usefulness of the analytic framework.The assessment concludes that the policy relevance of voucherprograms for developing economies remains uncertain. Major voucherinitiatives have been attempted only in countries with a well-developedinstitutional infrastructure. Some studies find favorable benefitsfor at least some population groups, but others find limitedeffects and evidence of increasing social stratification inschools. Whether vouchers lead to better outcomes or greaterstratification appears related to specific contexts, institutionalvariables, and program designs.      

THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY: A Review of Its Operation and Effects on Developing Countries

Policy changes in the European Community (EC)—the world'slargest importer and, since 1986, exporter of agricultural commodities—mayhave significant effects on world markets and developing countries.This article investigates the EC's Common Agricultural Policy(CAP), its history, mode of operation, and the prospects andpossibilities for change, to bring out the implications of thepolicy for developing country exporters and importers. The hypothesisthat evolves differs from that of many studies in proposingthat an agricultural liberalization in the EC is unlikely toeffect any great change in world market prices over the firstfew years. Developing countries' principal gain from a liberalizationof the CAP would derive from increased stability of world marketprices, improved access to export markets, and a reduction inthe uncertainty currently caused by discretionary measures inthe EC.      

Why OECD Countries Should Reform Rules of Origin

With preferential trade agreements on the rise worldwide rulesof origin—which are necessary to prevent trade deflection—areattracting increasing attention. At the same time, preferenceerosion for Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) recipientsis increasing resistance to further multilateral negotiations.Drawing on different approaches, this article shows that thecurrent system of rules of origin that is used by the EuropeanUnion and the United States in preferential trade agreements(including the GSP) and that is similar to systems used by otherOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countriesshould be drastically simplified if developed economies reallywant to help developing economies integrate into the world tradingsystem. In addition to diverting resources for administrativetasks, current rules of origin carry significant compliancecosts. More fundamentally, it is becoming increasingly clearthat they are often been designed to force developing economiesto buy inefficient intermediate products from developed economiesto "pay for" preferential access for the final product. Theevidence also suggests that a significant share of the rentsassociated with market access (net of rules of origin compliancecosts) is captured by developed economies. Finally, the restrictivenessof rules of origin is found to be beyond the levels that wouldbe justified to prevent trade deflection, suggesting a captureby special interest groups. The article outlines some alternativepaths to reforms. JEL codes: F13, F15     

Weak Links in the Chain: A Diagnosis of Health Policy in Poor Countries

Recent empirical and theoretical literature sheds light on thedisappointing experience with implementation of primary healthcare programs in developing countries. This article focuseson the evidence showing two weak links in the chain betweengovernment spending for services to improve health and actualimprovements in health status. First, institutional capacityis a vital ingredient in providing effective services. Whenthis capacity is inadequate, health spending, even on the rightservices, may lead to little actual provision of services. Second,the net effect of government health services depends on theseverity of market failures—the more severe the marketfailures, the greater the potential for government servicesto have an impact. Evidence suggests that market failures arethe least severe for relatively inexpensive curative services,which often absorb the bulk of primary health care budgets.A companion paper, available from the authors (seep. 219), offersa perspective on how government funds can best be used to improvehealth and well-being in developing countries. It gives an alternativeview of appropriate public health policy, one that focuses onmitigating the characteristic market failures of the sectorand tailoring public health activities to the government's abilityto deliver various services.