Do foreigners replace native immigrants? A panel cointegration analysis of internal migration in Italy

This paper examines the impact of the immigration of foreigners on domestic labor mobility. Since David Card's seminal study on the regional labor market impact of the Mariel Boatlift it is controversial whether domestic labor mobility equilibrates economic conditions across regions. However, there is little or no evidence that natives leave destinations where migrants tend to cluster. In this paper we reconcile the existing evidence by taking another route: we analyze whether the immigration of foreigners replaces domestic mobility from poor to rich regions. We focus on Italy, which is characterized by large North-South wage and unemployment differentials, and apply panel cointegration methods. The main finding is that, conditional on unemployment and wage differentials, the presence of foreign workers in the labor force of the destination regions discourages internal labor mobility significantly. As a consequence, spatial correlation studies which use the variance of the foreigner share across regions for identifying the wage and employment effects of immigration, tend to understate the actual impact of foreign immigration.     

Literacy and the Migrant–Native Wage Gap

Being able to read and write is one of the most important skills in modern economies. Literacy frequently is a prerequisite for employment and its relevance for productivity and wages is magnified by the fact that it is only through literacy that many other skills become usable. More so than for natives, this argument applies to migrants: even those with high levels of human capital acquired in the country of origin often have it rendered worthless by the absence of literacy in the host‐country language. Using novel data from a large‐scale German adult literacy test (“leo.—Level‐One Studie”, or “LEO”), we investigate the determinants of literacy and show that migrants have systematically lower language skills than natives. We find that any observed raw employment and wage gaps between natives and migrants can be fully explained by these differences.     

Regional migration and wage inequality in the West African economic and monetary union

We investigate the impact of intra-regional migration on wage inequality in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA). We exploit unique data from a unified labour force household survey which covers natives and migrants in the seven economic capital cities of that region. We first estimate the counterfactual wage distributions of UEMOA migrants in absence of migration to evaluate the compositional effect of migration (i.e., when wages are treated as exogenous). We find that regional migration increases average wages by 1.8% and generates a decrease in inequality that ranges between −1.5% (for the Gini index) and −4.5% (for the interquartile ratio). This is essentially driven by a reduction in inequality between capital cities, while the effect of migration on within-capital cities inequality is heterogeneous across countries and remains small overall. Second, when accounting for possible general equilibrium effects of migration on stayers’ wages (i.e., when wages are treated as endogenous), we find similar to stronger effects on inequality, albeit with a smaller increase in the average wage.     

Immigrant Wage Adjustment in Australia: Cross Section and Time-Series Estimates*

Cross-sectional estimates of the comparative wage performance of natives and immigrants can be distorted if there are changes in labour market quality between immigrant cohorts. This question is investigated with a study of 1973 and 1981 cross-sections of Australian migrants. We find that migrants from non-English-speaking countries entering Australia about 1965 perform significantly better between 1973 and 1981 than predicted from the 1973 cross-section. Migrants from English-speaking countries time-series wage performance is consistent with the 1973 cross-section prediction. The paper interprets the analytic importance of these results.     

Employment, wages, and the economic cycle: Differences between immigrants and natives

In this paper, we analyse differences in the cyclical pattern of employment and wages of immigrants and natives for two large immigrant receiving countries, Germany and the UK. We show that, despite large differences in their immigrant populations, there are similar and significant differences in cyclical responses between immigrants and natives in both countries, even conditional on education, age, and location. We decompose changes in outcomes into a secular trend and a business cycle component. We find significantly larger unemployment responses to economic shocks for low-skilled workers relative to high-skilled workers and for immigrants relative to natives within the same skill group. There is little evidence for differential wage responses to economic shocks. We offer three explanations for these findings: an equilibrium search model, where immigrants experience higher job separation rates, a model of dual labour markets, and differences in the complementarity of immigrants and natives to capital.     

Risk aversion and the earnings of US immigrants and natives

The literature on the earnings of natives and immigrants has heretofore ignored differences in compensating wages for job risks. It is possible that the risk involved in migration may indicate a greater willingness on the part of immigrants to accept riskier jobs than natives. Alternatively, immigrants may attempt to protect their migration investment by choosing occupations with less risk, indicating a higher degree of risk aversion. This paper examines differences in risk aversion between US immigrants and natives, and corresponding differentials in wage premiums for job risk. Our analysis suggests that on average immigrants are exposed to 21% less risk than natives, but receive a 25% higher risk premium. The higher degree of risk aversion of immigrants and their lower exposure to risk, and thus lower earnings, explains 5% of the higher observed earnings of natives. We also find that earlier immigrant cohorts (pre-1970) are employed in riskier jobs than are recent cohorts, but the difference accounts for only a small portion of the observed earnings differential. Finally, we estimate statistical values of life of $3.6 million for US natives and $4.6 million for immigrants, well within the range of previous studies.     

How much do immigration and trade affect labor market outcomes?

"This paper provides new estimates of the impact of immigration and trade on the U.S. labor market.... We examine the relation between economic outcomes for native workers and immigrant flows to regional labor markets.... We...use the factor proportions approach to examine the contributions of immigration and trade to recent changes in U.S. educational wage differentials and attempt to provide a broader assessment of the impact of immigration on the incomes of U.S. natives." Comments and discussion by John DiNardo, John M. Abowd, and others are included (pp. 68-85).     

Efficiency-Wage Unemployment and Intersectoral Wage Differentials in a Heckscher–Ohlin Model

The paper analyzes a Heckscher–Ohlin (HO) model with efficiency-wage unemployment (henceforth HOe model). We show that all HO results have close HOe analogues. Additionally, conditions are derived under which immigrants might not only find employment for themselves but also raise employment for natives. Moreover, we analyze the ranking of countries with respect to their rate of unemployment, showing that this ranking may be reversed as countries move from autarky to trade. All results are clearly linked to factor intensities and the pattern of intersectoral wage differentials.     

AN EQUILIBRIUM SEARCH MODEL WHEN FIRMS OBSERVE WORKERS' EMPLOYMENT STATUS*

This article considers an equilibrium search model, where firms post wages using information on workers' employment status. Earnings differentials between workers of different employment statuses are driven by firms' ability to discriminate workers' reservation wages. I study how these wage policies depend on firms' and workers' characteristics, and how these policies affect the wage distribution. The model delivers new predictions for the amount of wage dispersion that can be generated with search models and provides a better representation of the left tail of the wage distribution in the presence of a legal minimum wage than standard equilibrium search models.     

A SEARCH‐EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH TO THE EFFECTS OF IMMIGRATION ON LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES

We analyze the impact of the U.S. skill‐biased immigration influx that took place between 2000 and 2009 within a search and matching model that allows for skill heterogeneity, differential search cost, and capital‐skill complementarity. We find that although the skill‐biased immigration raised the overall net income to natives, it had distributional effects. Specifically, unskilled native workers gained in terms of both employment and wages. Skilled native workers, however, gained in terms of employment but lost in terms of wages. Nevertheless, in an extension where skilled natives and immigrants are imperfect substitutes, even the skilled wage rises.     

Temporary Migration and the Flow of Savings to the Source Country

The saving behavior of temporary migrants when the duration of their stay abroad is set by the immigration policy of the host country is studied in this paper. The focus is on the implied flow of savings back to the source country and how it depends on migration costs, duration of the work permit, and international wage, interest and price‐level differentials. The amount of time that migrants are allowed to work in the host country is shown to be a key policy variable that affects the flow of savings repatriated to the source country.     

Immigrant job search assimilation in Canada

Immigrant assimilation is a major issue in many countries. While most of the literature studies assimilation through a human capital framework, we examine the role of job search assimilation. To do so, we estimate an equilibrium search model of immigrants operating in the same labour market as natives, where newly arrived immigrants have lower job offer arrival rates than natives but can acquire the same arrival rates according to a stochastic process. Using Canadian panel data, we find substantial differences in job offer arrival and destruction rates between natives and immigrants that are able to account for three quarters of the observed earnings gap. The estimates imply that immigrants take on average 13 years to acquire the native search parameters. Due to immigrants facing much lower on‐the‐job offer arrival rates than natives, the model predicts that earnings growth through job search is minimal for immigrants prior to their job search assimilation.     

The gender wage gap among China’s rural–urban migrants

In this study, we present new empirical evidence on gender wage differences among rural–urban migrants in China. We use a data set that includes migrants residing in urban communities and those living at their workplaces—the latter were not included in the previous studies. We find that the gender wage gap among migrants is 16%–18% and does not differ between migrants living at workplaces and those living in urban communities. However, gender differences in industry sorting play a more important role for migrants living at their workplaces, whereas differences in education and experience are of importance for those living in urban communities. Overall, differences in the returns to characteristics are the main driver of the gender wage gap, especially for migrants living in urban communities.     

Modeling migration barriers in a two-sector framework: A welfare analysis of the hukou reform in China

The present paper constructs a two-sector labor market model for China featuring endogenous internal labor mobility and heterogeneous costs of migration induced by the Chinese household registration system (hukou). The main novelty of our model is to divide migrants into those with more family responsibilities and those with fewer to explain the empirical fact that almost all young people with rural hukou have migrated to cities, while people who stay in the rural area are older and have more family responsibilities. We conduct two policy experiments using the model: one experiment concerned with reducing costs of living for younger migrants and the other for older migrants. The main results are that the first policy would unambiguously increase social welfare, while the reduced-cost policy for older migrants would reduce poverty and inequality although some urban natives may experience a wage reduction.     

Return migration,uncertainty and precautionary savings

"This paper presents a life-cycle model where migrants determine re-migration and consumption simultaneously in a stochastic environment. Whether precautionary savings of migrants are above or below those of natives is ambiguous in general--the sign depends on the risk in host- and home-country labor markets and on the correlation of labor market shocks. Furthermore, the effect of an uncertain environment on migration and re-migration plans cannot be unambiguously signed for the general case. It depends on the size of the wage differential as well as the relative risk the migrant exhibits in the two labor markets."     

AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF THE RELATIONS AMONG WAGE DIFFERENTIALS, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, AND TRADE

This article investigates the relations among productivity growth, wage differentials, and net exports in the United States. The time periods considered are the long run and the short run. Cointegration test results indicate that all the test variables are cointegrated. Therefore, productivity growth, wage differentials, and trade are all related in the long run. A short-run investigation of the relations among productivity growth, wage differentials, and trade is conducted within a vector error correction (VEC) estimation structure. The VEC tests indicate that, contrary to the prevailing view, productivity growth and trade have no impact on wage differentials in the short run. At the same time, it is apparent that wage differentials and trade have a positive and statistically significant impact on productivity growth in the United States in the short run.     

Migration Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Dual Labor Market

The paper uses a two–sector efficiency–wage model to analyze the consequences of immigration for a small open economy with a dual labor market. Immigrants are characterized by an (exogenous) return probability. Legal regulations impose preferential hiring of natives or "old" immigrants. As a result, there is sectoral segregation between natives and immigrants, leading to discrimination of the type equal pay for equal work,but unequal "work." In the short run (with sector–specific capital), immigration has a positive first–order impact on natives' welfare if migration policy favors segregation through high return rates or restrictive hiring practices ("guest–worker system"). In the long run, its effect is only determined by factor intensities (2 ¥ 2 model). Finally, the improved integration of migrants yields efficiency gains and improves aggregate welfare of all residents.     

Catching up? The educational mobility of migrants’ and natives’ children in Europe

Migrants into European countries are often less educated than European natives. We analyse whether migrants’ children are more or less likely than natives’ children to achieve upward educational mobility across generations, and study differences in the factors, which contribute to differences in mobility for the two groups. We find that migrants’ descendants are more often upwardly mobile (and less often downwardly mobile) than their native peers in the majority of countries studied, and show that the main factor contributing to these patterns is the education level of parents. Although a lower parental education means that their children are less likely to access the same amount of human, social and financial capital as children of more highly educated parents, migrants’ descendants over the last two generations were able to make significant progress in reducing education gaps with natives.     

Matching, Heterogeneity, and the Evolution of Income Distribution

This paper analyzes a model in which firms and workershave to engage in costly search to find a production partner,and endogenizes the skill, job, and wage distributions in thiscontext. The presence of search frictions implies that thereare two redistributive forces in the labor market. The firstis mismatch relative to the Walrasian economy; skilled workerstend to work with lower physical to human capital ratios, andthis compresses the earnings differentials. The second is theopportunity cost effect; because the opportunity cost of acceptingan unskilled worker, which is to forgo the opportunity to employa skilled worker, is high, unskilled wages are pushed down. Theinteraction between these two forces leads to a non-ergodic equilibriumprocess for wage and income inequality. Further, the presenceof mismatch reduces the rate of return to physical capital andthus depresses growth. A key prediction of the analysis is thatincreasing wage inequality is more likely to arise in economieswith less frictional labor markets, which is in line with thediverse cross-country patterns observed over the past two decades.Finally, the paper predicts that, as is largely the case withU.S. data, between group and within group wage inequality shouldmove in the same direction.     

A comparative analysis of inter-industry wage differentials: industrialized versus developing countries

This study aims to compare the available evidence on inter-industry wage structure for industrialized and developing countries and to find whether the industry wage differentials are consistent and stable independent of time and space. Moreover, it tries to clarify some of the determinants of industry wage differentials. International evidence supports the wage differential regularity across countries, and the factors underlying inter-industry wage differentials are found to be more or less the same for both industrialized and developing countries.