中国的永久移民

中国的户口制度阻碍了农村居民向城市的迁移。然而,农村居民仍能通过接受较好的教育、提干或参军等方式获得城市户口。利用2002年的大样本调查,我们发现永久移民的数量大约为1亿,约占现今城市居民的20%。与留在农村的农民相比,永久移民的经济状况得到了很大的改善。成为永久移民的概率与父母教育水平、汉族身份、父母党员身份等正相关。永久移民的经济状况与获得户口时的年龄有关。较年轻时就获得户口的永久移民的收入要高于城市原住民,较晚获得户口的永久移民的收入则要低于城市原住民。尽管大部分永久移民成功地融入了城市生活,但那些通过非职业途径获得户口的永久移民,却远非如此。     

迁移、自选择与收入分配-来自中国城乡的证据

本文强调两个事实:第一,农村居民并非同质,他们根据自身的特征决定迁移与否;第二,那些成功地改变了户籍身份的永久移民与没能改变户籍身份的临时移民之间有着显著的差异。利用2002年的CHIP数据发现,永久移民的正选择效应非常明显,它使得农村地区教育水平较高、处于收入分布较高位置的样本减少。这导致农村的收入水平和农村内部的不平等程度降低,阻碍了城乡差距的降低。相反,临时移民的选择效应几乎可以忽略不计。     

制度分割下的农村劳动力流动过程的宏观效应分析

在不同的制度环境下，农村劳动力迁移流动的过程显示不同的阶段性特征。以中国经济体制转轨和社会转型为背景，对农村劳动力向城市流动的阶段性过程进行划分；并对由户籍制度与土地制度所产生劳动力流动过程的阶段性特征的原因进行阐述，提出相关的制度变革建议，以期为实现平稳和持续的城市化、非农化创造所需要的制度环境。     

预期退休年龄的影响因素分析* ——基于CHARLS数据的实证研究

本文基于2011年CHARLS数据,利用Multinominal Logit模型分析了45岁~60岁劳动者个人特征、配偶特征以及家庭特征对他们延迟退休意愿和无休止劳动意愿的影响。本文发现,女性、具有高级职称和农业户口的劳动者更愿意延迟退休,在企业工作、具有农业户口和受教育程度偏低的人倾向于无休止劳动。对延迟退休意愿进行性别差异分析的结果表明,男性延迟退休意愿随着自身受教育程度的提高而增加,随着妻子受教育程度的提高呈现先降低后提高的“U”型趋势。女性的延迟退休意愿随着自身受教育程度的提高而下降,但并不受丈夫的影响。无论是男性还是女性,随着受教育程度的提高,他们无休止劳动的预期均下降。针对以上结论,本文提出了相应的政策建议。     

户籍制度扭曲及放松对经济的影响:理论与实证

户籍制度是我国劳动力流动的主要障碍.那么,当前我国的户籍扭曲程度几何?户籍制度放松对经济又会有怎样的影响?对这些问题的回答将有助于政府评估户籍制度改革的空间和经济效益.文章在Hansen和Prescott(2002)的两部门劳动力流动模型基础上,将工人分为农业和非农户口,引入户籍扭曲因子,构建两部门两类工人的户籍扭曲模型;然后,使用1984?2013年宏观经济数据度量户籍扭曲程度,并对2013年我国户籍制度逐渐放松过程中经济变量的变化进行模拟;最后,文章建立了包含"农业与非农"和"本地与外地"户籍差异的省份异质性户籍扭曲模型.研究表明:(1)经济和户籍制度改革的不同步导致了1984?2013年我国户籍扭曲程度呈现倒"U"形变化,且相较于韩国尚有较大的改善空间;(2)以韩国为参照,若2013年我国户籍制度完全放开,经济达到均衡时,农业部门和非农部门的就业人数将分别下降58.83%和上升26.92%,工资率将分别上升19.44%和下降6.77%,社会增加值将增长15.33%,这说明社会经济效率将得到提升,贫富差距将缩小.文章丰富和完善了户籍扭曲的理论模型,从减少劳动力流动摩擦的视角为政府制定相关政策提供了参考.     

Search, migration, and urban land use: The case of transportation policies

We develop a search-matching model with rural-urban migration and an explicit land market. Wages, job creation, urban housing prices are endogenous and we characterize the steady-state equilibrium. We then consider three different policies: a transportation policy that improves the public transport system in the city, an entry-cost policy that encourages investment in the city and a restricting-migration policy that imposes some costs on migrants. We show that all these policies can increase urban employment but the transportation policy has much more drastic effects. This is because a decrease in commuting costs has both a direct positive effect on land rents, which discourages migrants to move to the city, and a direct negative effect on urban wages, which reduces job creation and thus migration. When these two effects are combined with search frictions, the interactions between the land and the labor markets have amplifying positive effects on urban employment. Thus, improving the transport infrastructure in cities can increase urban employment despite the induced migration from rural areas.     

Migration,self‐selection and income distributions

Self‐selection in rural–urban migration is examined using three datasets from rural and urban China in 2002. We construct a migrant sample including both migrants who converted their hukou status from rural to urban (permanent migrants) and those who did not (temporary migrants). We find a strong positive selection for permanent migrants, but the selection for temporary migrants is ambiguous. We reach these conclusions by comparing migrants' counterfactual wage densities, assuming they are paid as rural local workers, to actual wage densities of rural local workers. Our results imply that permanent migration has negative effects on rural human capital accumulation and income levels.     

农村剩余劳动力培训能促进产业转移吗?

文章综合发展经济学Lewis模型和新经济地理学Krugman模型,构建了农村剩余劳动力跨区转移的空间经济模型,根据2005-2013年中国内地31个省份和2010-2012年河南省109个县两个层面的面板数据,采用面板和双重差分估计方法实证检验了农村剩余劳动力转移培训的产业转移效应.研究表明:(1)当前针对"转移农村劳动力"的培训补贴政策并无"产业转移效应",而存在"城市化效应".(2)"就地转移劳动力"培训补贴政策同样不存在"产业转移效应",而其"城市化效应"更强;唯有针对"欠发达地区企业"的劳动力培训补贴政策,在区域一体化水平突破 "门槛值"时才有"产业转移效应".文章研究的重要启示是:中西部地区若以促进城市化为目的,选择"就地转移劳动力"补贴更有效;而若以吸引产业转移为目的,则一方面需要针对"欠发达地区企业"的劳动力培训进行补贴,另一方面需要着重提高区域一体化水平.同时,若要实现农村剩余劳动力培训的产业转移效应,则需要改变现有的培训补贴方式,由向政府培训提供补贴转为向企业培训提供补贴.     

户籍门槛、流动性差异与地区收入差距

按学历、技能设置的落户条件在一定程度上强化了不同人力资本禀赋劳动力的流动性差异,这种流动性差异深刻的影响着人力资本的区域间分布和现代部门产业的空间格局,从而为解释地区收入差距的形成与扩大提供了新的视角。本文将户籍门槛变量引入新经济地理模型,并利用数值模拟技术分析在不同水平的户籍门槛、贸易成本、人力资本份额下,不同技能劳动力的空间选择及地区收入差距变动。研究结果表明,需求与供给效应的彼此强化使得低技能劳动力与高技能劳动力在同一区域聚集,但因技能而设置的户籍门槛作为分散力阻碍了低技能劳动力的空间聚集过程。伴随区域一体化推进,贸易成本不断降低,高技能劳动力将在发达地区高度集聚,而如果户籍门槛保持不变,低技能劳动力将均匀地分布在两个区域。高技能劳动力的地理集中是导致地区收入差距持续扩大的主要原因,降低贸易成本能够有效缩小地区收入差距,而降低户籍门槛或提高人力资本份额均使地区差距变得更大。本文进一步回顾了改革开放以来中国出现的劳动力回流现象、人力资本的迁移趋势、以及改革开放以来地区收入差距的收敛和发散趋势,发现经验数据与理论命题的结论基本相符。     

The effect of rural labor migration on poverty alleviation: a village-level study in China

The construction of the new socialist countryside is being carried out in China nowadays. Although lots of successful experience has been gotten, different problems occur in various regions yet. To analyze the relationships among rural labor migration, poverty alleviation and characteristics of migrants is important in considering the effect of rural labor migration on the construction of the new socialist countryside. Available sampling and typical case study are adopted and 236 questionnaires are collected from[bur villages in northwest GuangxL China, Daxin Lixin, Longhe and Yongchang. We analyze the rural labor migration status, characteristics of migrants, remittance situation and income, household income and the ratio of remittance income to total household income. A bout 2/3 of the households have migrants in surveyed villages. And nearly half of the migration households have only one fam- ily member as migrants in the four villages. The migrants mainly comprise male and the younger, with the education level of junior middte school and higher More than half of the migrants are employed in Guangdong Province. But the characteristics of migrants in Yongchang are more diverse. The rural labor migration in the village is extremely active and extensive. And over 60% of the household with family members as migrants have remittance income. The rate in Yongchang is extremely high (80%). And the income of households with migrants getting remittance income significantly higher than their counterparts. More than half of their income comes from remittance as far as the former kind of household is concerned And in Yongchang, the rate is nearly 80%. The conclusion is that rural labor migration is popular and extensive in lots of villages. And the migration and remittance play an important role in rural household income, especially in some poor villages. For this kind of village, the rural labor migration may be some "compulsory course" in rural development. And the rural labor emigration is an essential way in poverty al-leviation. This is the first step in the construction of the new socialist countryside.     

Family ties and employment behavior: The role of financial intermediaries

We study the interaction effect of financial intermediaries and family ties on labor participation and employment type in China. Although existing studies examine these effects separately, we investigate the effects of both factors in one model. We give empirical evidence to support earlier arguments that family ties negatively affect labor force participation and positively affect self‐/family‐employment behavior and that financial development positively affects labor force participation. Departing from the extant literature, our results overall indicate a compensating effect of financial intermediaries for family ties in labor participation and employment type. We further argue that there are gender, urban/rural, and age differences in the role of financial intermediaries. The effect of financial intermediaries on the strength of family ties is more relevant for female, rural, and younger people compared to male, urban, and older people.     

Welfare and equity impacts of cross-border factor mobility in Bangladesh: A general equilibrium analysis

We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with cross-border factor mobility to assess the impacts of a foreign wage shock and the effects of counteractive policy measures in Bangladesh. The model features migration of workers and foreign direct investment (FDI) in the ready-made garments (RMG) sector. Our simulation results show that returning migrants induced by a foreign wage fall would reduce household welfare by lowering wages and increasing unemployment, particularly for unskilled workers in the domestic labor market. To counteract this negative shock, FDI promotion in the RMG sector and a human-capital development program are considered. The former policy minimizes the negative impacts of the foreign labor market shock, while a combination of both policies is more equitable.     

户籍制度与劳动力市场保护

劳动力市场城乡间分割 ,在改革之前是政府推行重工业优先发展战略的需要 ,在改革以来则是受到城市利益集团的影响而得以维持。本文利用计划迁移数量决定的计量分析 ,以及北京市就业保护政策的演变实例检验了上述假说。由此得出的结论是 ,户籍制度是劳动力市场上就业保护的制度基础 ,其改革有赖于一系列配套改革的完成。     

The influence of rapid rural-urban migration on Korean national fertility levels

A autoregressive model is applied to personal migration and pregnancy histories recorded in the 1974 Korean World Fertility Survey to assess the adaptation effect of rural-urban migration on migrant fertility and national fertility levels. The objective of this study is to provide policy makers in developing nations with a model that will enable them to quantify the effects of rapid urbanization on the fertility level of migrant women and thus on national fertility levels. The fertility of rural-urban migrants is on the average lower than that of rural stayers; this study supports the adaptation hypothesis and indicates that rural-urban migrants experienced a significant reduction in 5 year fertility rates from those of comparable rural stayers after migration to the urban area. In addition, the city specific effects of migration on fertility are of considerable importance; migrants to larger cities adapt more over their lifetime than migrants to smaller cities. The completed adaptation by postmarital, rural-urban migrants is largest among migrants who are least educated. The autoregressive model controls the fertility level at the beginning of the observed period; it is assumed that this is a proxy for family size preferences. Results show that the completed fertility of migrant women with less than 4 years of school is 1.9 children fewer than that of comparable rural stayers, 1 child fewer for migrant women with 4 to 6 years of school, and .8 children fewer for migrant women with at least 6 years of school. For Korea, the overall effects on national fertility of rural-urban migration represent a reduction of 1.79 births per woman for the 1965-1970 period; it is estimated that the 945,400 rural-urban women migrants of this period would avoid, on average, 71,300 births annually for their expected average 24 years of urban life.     

STRUCTURAL CHANGE THROUGH PUBLIC EDUCATION EXPENDITURE: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

Under China's hukou system, I analyze the relationship between public education expenditure and structural change as measured by labor transfer from the agricultural to the industrial sector. I construct a two‐sector general equilibrium model, which shows that in the short term, public education expenditure crowds out industrial capital accumulation and temporarily hinders structural change, but in the long term, public education expenditure permanently reduces rural residents' education costs. An inverted U‐shape relationship implied by the empirical evidence indicates that China's current public education expenditure is far from optimal, suggesting that China should increase it, especially for rural residents. (JEL I28, O11, O15)     

Resettlement's impact on the domestic economy in lake restoration:case study of Poyang Lake region

The Chinese government started a lake restoration project in Poyang Lake region 10 years ago,and the expost monitor of the migrants' livelihoods was limited.This paper compares the composition difference of domestic income and domestic consumption between migration and non-migration villages in Poyang Lake region.The results show that the migrants' domestic income has increased in the last 10 years,which originated from the increasing trend of active and extensive rural labor migration,while the resettlement has not influenced the domestic income significantly.The resettlement stimulates younger farmers to work far away from home whose wages contribute nearly 80% of domestic income.The resettlement decreases their savings due to higher expenditure of daily life for those who work far away from home,and higher expenditure of food for those who stay at home,losing cultivated lands with irrigation system for vegetable.On the other hand,the increase of rural labor migration leads the migrants who stay at home to have access to more cultivated lands for rice and cotton,and the farmers also apply more fertilizer in the same cultivated land for more agriculture products.The resettlement makes most of migrants spend their savings on the improvement of their housing conditions due to not enough governmental financial support for new building.After the analysis,some factors that influence migrants' income and consumption are discussed.The paper may contribute to the building of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone.     

Rural-urban migration,urban unemployment and underemployment,and job-search activity in LDCs

A quantity adjustment framework is used to analyze unemployment and underemployment in less developed countries (LDCs). The basic premise of the formal theoretical model presented is that the same kinds of forces that explain the choices of workers between the rural and urban sectors can also explain thier choices between 1 labor market and another within an urban area and are most likely made simultaneously. The decision makers, whether family units or individuals, are presumed to consider the various labor market opportunities available to them and to choose the one which maximizes their expected future income. In the model the primary equilibrating force is taken to be the movement of workers between labor markets, not changes in wages. The point of departure is the received theory of rural urban migration in LDS, which is the model of Harris and Todaro (1970). The 1st step is a summary of the basic features of the model. While accepting their basic approach emphasizing movement of workers rather than changes in wages, it is shown that the particular implication of the model with respect to the equilibrium urban unemployment rate substantially overstates the rates actually observed by Turnham (1971) and others. The analysis is then extended to consider several important factors which have previously been neglected--a more generalized approach to the job search process, the possibility of underemployment in the so-called urban "murky sector," preferential treatment by employers of the better educated, and consideration of labor turnover--and demonstrate that the resulting framework gives predictions closer to actual experience. Harris and Todaro in their original discussion concluded that a combination of a wage subsidy in the modern sector and physical restriction of migration would be required to realize a first best state lying on the economy's production possibility frontier. Subsequently Bhagwati and Srinivasan (1974) challenged them and demonstrated that a first best solution can be achieved by means of a variety of alternative tax or subsidy schemes, none of which require migration restriction. This analysis suggests 3 additional policy variables, beyond those considered by either pair, which might be expected to have an important effect on the volume of unemployment and underemployment in LDCs: a smoothly functioning labor exchange would reduce the incentive to remain unemployed while searching for a superior job; the size of the educational system would also influence the amount of unemployment; and it is job hiring in the modern sector, more than the number of jobs, which primarily influences workers' locational decisions.     

农村的二胎超生反弹及其原因探析——以湖北省三个乡镇为例

基于湖北省三个乡镇实地调查的数据分析,近十年来二胎超生普遍反弹,且成为超生队伍的主体。其根本原因在于农户普遍具有二孩偏好。由于二孩偏好富于弹性,在2002年之前农村政策环境收紧时,农户被迫将这一生育偏好"蛰伏"起来,而当2002年后农村政策环境逐步松动、基层治责和治权弱化和农户收入提高后,独子户的二孩偏好逐渐释放,最终导致生育反弹。农民的生育观念与国家政策要求还有一定距离,为了达到政策要求,国家要赋予基层与政策要求相匹配的治责和治权。     

Factors that influence female labor force supply in China

Using the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) database of the employment of married women in 2006, this paper analyzed the factors that influenced the labor force participation of female workers in urban and rural areas, from the perspectives of individuals and families. The Probit Regression suggested that factors associated with families were of more importance than individual factors and there existed large differences between urban and rural areas. For women from urban areas, individual factors played a more important role than those from rural areas, while family factors were more significant for those who came from rural areas. Thus labor market policies should consider the structural difference between urban and rural women.     

Urban and rural attitudes toward municipal water controls: A study of a semi-arid region with limited water supplies

This study addresses the effectiveness of using pricing mechanisms, government-imposed constraints, or a hybrid, as a means of rationing municipal water. We try to test which policies would be most accepted among rural and urban communities in a semi-arid region of Texas that depend on both surface and groundwater sources for their municipal supplies. This study reveals that a hybrid conservation policy that includes mandatory restrictions, fines for overuse, and pricing increases could be more acceptable, and hence more efficient, than a policy that only consists of regulation. Moreover, there is not a significant dichotomy in policy preferences between rural and urban constituents; although those in rural communities would seem to appreciate far less regulatory policy than would urbanites.