Firms’ skills as drivers of radical and incremental innovation

Using firm level data from the Irish Community Innovation Survey 2008–2010 we analyse the importance of eight skill sets for the innovation performance of firms. We distinguish between radical and incremental innovation. Our results suggest that there is substantial heterogeneity in the importance of skills for different types of innovation and that some skills are best sourced from outside the firm while others are best developed in-house.     

Does the analysis of innovation barriers perceived by high growth firms provide information on innovation policy priorities?

High growth firms and reducing innovation barriers figure high in the European innovation policy debate. Do high growth firms face specific innovation barriers which are relevant for innovation policy? In this paper we study the robustness of the perception of innovation barriers when alternative definitions of high growth firms are used. Using data from two waves of the European Innovation survey (CIS 4 and CIS 2006) we show not only that different definitions of high growth firms lead to quite different results across country groups, but also that the results are quite different for the CIS 4 and CIS 2006 samples. We argue that in the light of the available empirical evidence this non-robustness should not come as a surprise and that this negative result makes it difficult to specifically target high growth firms with public policies. Fostering the emergence of high growth innovative firms in Europe may not be feasible with targeted funding policies only but needs a systemic approach.     

Measuring microenterprise profits: Must we ask how the sausage is made?

A large share of the World's poor is self-employed. Accurate measurement of profits from microenterprises is therefore critical for studying poverty and inequality, measuring the returns to education, and evaluating the success of microfinance programs. However, a myriad of problems plague the measurement of profits. This paper reports on a variety of different experiments conducted to better understand the importance of some of these problems, and to draw recommendations for collecting profit data. In particular, we (i) examine how far we can reconcile self-reported profits and reports of revenue minus expenses through more detailed questions; (ii) examine recall errors in sales, and report on the results of experiments which randomly allocated account books to firms; and (iii) asked firms how much firms like theirs underreport sales in surveys like ours, and had research assistants observe the firms at random times 15–16 times during a month to provide measures for comparison. We conclude that firms underreport revenues by about 30%, that account diaries have significant impacts on both revenues and expenses, but not on profits, and that simply asking profits provides a more accurate measure of firm profits than detailed questions on revenues and expenses.     

The better you are the stronger it makes you: Evidence on the asymmetric impact of liberalization

This paper shows how trade liberalization can have an asymmetric effect on heterogeneous firms. It develops a neo-Schumpeterian growth model predicting that the impact of liberalization on economic performance is positive “on average”, but more advanced firms benefit more. These predictions are tested using Mexican plant-level data confirming that, under NAFTA, the liberalization spurred productivity growth on average. However, the empirical analysis goes beyond estimating the average effect of liberalization and shows that more advanced firms benefited disproportionately more from the liberalization. Focusing on the mechanisms explaining these results, the paper shows that the results are not just driven by an increase in input usage and investments, but rather by innovative and managerial efforts as they are significantly stronger in those sectors where the scope for innovative activities is larger.     

Political versus economic institutions in the growth process

After a decade of research on the relationship between institutions and growth, there is no consensus about the exact way in which these two variables interact. In this paper we re-examine the role that institutions play in the growth process using data for developed and developing economies over the period 1975–2005. Our results indicate that the data is best described by an econometric model with two growth regimes. Political institutions are the key determinant of which regime an economy belongs to, while economic institutions have a direct impact on growth rates within each regime. These findings support the hypothesis that political institutions are one of the deep causes of growth, setting the stage in which economic institutions and standard covariates operate.     

Does services liberalization affect manufacturing firms’ export performance? Evidence from India

This paper investigates the relationship between the reform of energy, telecommunications and transport services in India in the mid-1990s and manufacturing firms’ export performance. The empirical analysis relies on exogenous indicators of regulation of Indian services sectors and detailed firm-level data from India in the 1994–2004 period. I find that the reform of upstream services sector has increased the probability of exporting and export sales shares of firms producing in downstream manufacturing industries. The results suggest that the effect of services liberalization on manufacturing firms’ export performance is stronger for initially more productive firms. These empirical findings are robust to alternative econometric specifications that control for other reforms, industry, firm characteristics and that deal with potential reverse causality concerns.     

Sudden stops and the Mexican wave: Currency crises,capital flow reversals and output loss in emerging markets

Sudden stops are the simultaneous occurrence of a currency/balance of payments crisis with a reversal in capital flows. We investigate whether sudden-stop crises are a unique phenomenon and whether they entail an especially large and abrupt pattern of output collapse (a “Mexican wave”). Using a panel data set over 1975–1997 and covering 24 emerging-market economies, we distinguish between the output effects of currency crises, capital inflow reversals, and sudden-stop crises. Sudden-stop crises have a large negative, but short-lived, impact on output growth over and above that found with currency crises. A currency crisis typically reduces output by about 2–3%, while a sudden stop reduces output by an additional 6–8% in the year of the crisis. The cumulative output loss of a sudden stop is even larger, around 13–15% over a 3-year period. Our model estimates correspond closely to the output dynamics of the ‘Mexican wave’ (such as seen in Mexico in 1995, Turkey in 1994 and elsewhere), and out-of-sample predictions of the model explain well the sudden (and seemingly unexpected) collapse in output associated with the 1997–1998 Asian Crisis.     

TRIPs and patenting activity: Evidence from the Indian pharmaceutical industry

This paper studies the impact of the strict patent regime on the patenting activity of Indian pharmaceutical firms and finds that patenting activity of these firms has increased after the signing of TRIPs. The study is conducted for 65 pharmaceutical firms for the period 1991 to 2004 using different parametric and semiparametric count panel data models. Results across different count data models indicate a positive and significant impact of the introduction of stronger patents on patenting activity. Further, the results show a gestation lag of 2 years between R&D spending and patent applications.     

The determinants of pollution levels: Firm-level evidence from Chinese manufacturing

Using a large, unique, firm-level dataset from the Chinese manufacturing sector, we study important factors that are related to emission intensity for three pollutants in China – sulfur dioxide, wastewater, and soot. Our main findings are as follows: (1) compared to state-owned enterprises (SOEs), both foreign-owned firms and domestic public-listed firms exhibit less intensive pollutant emissions; (2) firms in regions with less local protection have lower pollution intensity; (3) better property rights protection is negatively correlated with pollutant discharge over and beyond the national standards; and (4) larger firms, firms in industries that export more, and firms with more educated employees pollute less. These results suggest that China should not target foreign firms more harshly in its effort to reduce industrial pollution. Better institutions in the form of more effective law enforcement and lower entry barriers across regional markets are also means of curbing China’s pressing environmental problems during its current stage of economic development.     

Animal spirits and the composition of innovation

This paper shows that the Schumpeterian model with both vertical and horizontal innovative research admits many more equilibria than the unique symmetric balanced growth path (BGP) usually highlighted in the literature. Each of a continuum of BGPs is characterized by a different composition of aggregate R&D (vertical versus horizontal).This appears if firms expect self-fulfilling “waves of enthusiasm” in the newly introduced sectors, as is very common in the real world. Pioneers are challenged by more outsiders and the first monopoly of every new good is likely to last less than in more mature industries: By expecting this horizontal innovation is depressed while vertical innovation is more intense. Such “waves of enthusiasm” have a positive effect on growth rates and a negative effect on consumption levels.     

Competition and inter-firm credit: Theory and evidence from firm-level data in Indonesia

Using firm-level data we investigate the relationship between trade credit and suppliers' market structure and find a ∩-shaped relationship between competition and trade credit, with a discontinuous increase in credit provision between monopoly and duopoly. This “big jump” arises because monopolists are more likely to not offer any trade credit than firms in competitive environments. Our model exploits the fundamentally different nature between cash and trade credit sales, arguing that firms are unable to commit ex ante to a trade credit price. We show that monopolists will often sell only on cash, while credit is always provided in competitive environments.     

Are complementary reforms a “luxury” for developing countries?

This paper investigates the impact of complementarity reforms on growth and how it depends on GDP per capita. Based on reform data for six policy areas compiled from various sources during the period 1994–2006 for over 100 countries, we compute composite indicators of reform level and complementarity. We provide qualitative justification for the existence of pair-wise complementarities among policy areas. We then use cross-section and panel data estimates to test the effect of reform level and complementarity on GDP per capita growth. We found reforms to be positively related and their dispersion (or the inverse of complementarity) negatively related to growth, controlling for initial conditions, monetary stability and other structural and institutional variables, as well as endogeneity of reform level and complementarity. We show that the effect of policy complementarity is a stronger condition for sustainable growth in developing than in advanced countries, to conclude that complementary reforms are not a ‘luxury’ for developing countries.     

When does FDI have positive spillovers? Evidence from 17 transition market economies

We use rich firm-level data and national input–output tables from 17 countries over the 2002–2005 period to test new and existing hypotheses about the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the efficiency of domestic firms in the host country (i.e., spillovers). We document that backward linkages have a consistently positive effect on productivity of domestic firms while horizontal and forward linkages show no consistent effect. We also examine how the strength of spillovers varies by sector, FDI source, institutional environment (corruption, red tape, level of development), firm’s distance to the technological frontier, and other firm- and country-specific characteristics.     

Credit constraints,inequality and the growth gains from trade

This paper tests the hypothesis that, in the presence of credit constraints, higher wealth inequality affects negatively the growth gains from trade liberalisation. Variations in the growth rate of value added–decomposed in the growth rate of the number of establishments and the growth rate in average size–of manufacturing industries in 34 developing countries before and after trade liberalisation are used to study the effects of inequality on the difference in growth under liberalised and nonliberalised regimes. The results show that the number of firms in industries with high dependence on external finance in countries with higher inequality grow significantly slower, in both statistical and economic terms, than in industries with low dependence on external finance in countries with lower inequality following a trade liberalisation relative to the closed-economy period.     

Learning the master's trade: Apprenticeship and human capital in Ghana

This paper explores the institution of apprenticeship in Ghana. A model is presented where apprenticeship training is idiosyncratic, increasing an individual's productivity in the current firm, but not in any other firm. Still, individuals are willing to fund apprenticeships as they can reap the returns to the specific training of apprenticeship if they manage to acquire the capital required to start their own firms, and replicate the technology and business practice of the apprenticeship firm. Predictions of the model for the productivity and remuneration of different workers are developed and tested using both a linked employer–employee survey of manufacturing firms and a national household survey.     

Comparing China and India: A factor accumulation perspective

The remarkable economic transformations in China and India in recent decades have been accompanied by almost equally remarkable different development patterns. For example, the empirical data during 1985–2004 show that, compared with India, China’s economy has exhibited (i) considerably higher rates of physical capital formation; (ii) much higher ratios of measured physical to human capital; and (iii) a more physical-capital-friendly public policy. Motivated by these empirical observations, we study the accumulation of both physical and human capital in a one-sector growth model with a CES production function. After deriving some qualitative implications from the model, we estimate the key technological parameters of the normalized CES production function using the panel data at the provincial level for China and at the state level for India. Our estimation results suggest that our model implications match broadly with the above stylized development patterns regarding China and India.     

Can total factor productivity explain value added growth in services?

This paper examines the factors responsible for generating the services led growth witnessed in the Indian economy during 1980–2005. A sectoral growth accounting exercise shows that total factor productivity (TFP) growth was the fastest for services; moreover this TFP increase was significant in accounting for service sector value added growth. A growth model with agriculture, industry and services as three principal sectors is calibrated to Indian data using sectoral TFP growth rates. The baseline model performs well in accounting for the evolution of value added shares and their growth rates, but is unable to capture sectoral employment share trends. The performance of the model with respect to value added shares improves when the post 1991 increase in service sector TFP growth following the inception of market-based liberalization reforms is accounted for. A modified version of the model with public capital can better track trends in sectoral employment shares.     

Endogenous recessions: The creative destruction effect of final product novelty

In this paper we build a basic macroeconomic model aimed to grasp some aspects of the inner functioning of macroeconomic fluctuations. We highlight a mechanism through which the appearance of a product innovation results in an eventual reduction of the aggregate economic activity. When a new product appears, demand moves towards this more attractive product. The ‘creative destruction’ effect in this context is represented by the resources lost when firms producing old varieties exit the market due to the shortage of demand. Because firms producing a given product receive on average the same amount of demand, exits happen to be highly synchronized. We use this fact to explain the fluctuation asymmetries observed in real data. We test the ability of the model to meet features of real data against the United States' GDP in the 1950–1992 period.     

Why don't firms export more? Product quality and Colombian plants

Exporting firms around the world ship only a small fraction of their output overseas. For firms in a large country, such as the United States, this behavior can be explained by the existence of a large domestic market. For firms in a small lower income country, such as Colombia, the lower share of exports remains a puzzle. This paper begins by illustrating the failure of current models to explain plant export patterns in Colombia. Even models that do well in describing the US export distribution fail when confronted with the Colombian data. In response to this puzzle, this paper suggests that Colombia's export distribution can be explained with a two-dimensional productivity space where output productivity is considered separately from quality productivity. Predictions of this theory are tested on Colombian plant level data from 1981–1991. Overall, product quality is shown to be a significant factor in explaining the tendency for Colombian plants to under-export manufactured goods to the United States.     

Population heterogeneity and growth

I investigate the robustness of the link between growth and heterogeneity in a population along ethnic, linguistic, religious, and socio-economic class lines using cross-country data covering the period 1960–92 and 72 countries. In addition to 21 distinct explanatory variables extensively used in the empirical growth literature, I consider several fragmentation and polarization indices capturing the heterogeneity in a population to deal with measurement uncertainty, and utilize Bayesian Model Averaging techniques to address uncertainty issues regarding model specification. My results indicate that while substantial data evidence favors the inclusion of population heterogeneity as a theory when proxied by fragmentation indices, it does not support the inclusion of this theory when proxied by polarization indices. Furthermore, the religious fragmentation index has the strongest evidence in favor of its inclusion as opposed to ethnic and linguistic fragmentation indices and income inequality.