Fraudster’s and victims’ profiles and loss predictors’ hierarchy in the mental healthcare industry in the US

Abstract

Background

Fraud- or theft-related crimes account for the highest number of crimes in the mental health industry in the US.     

Inequality and volatility moderation in Russia: Evidence from micro-level panel data on consumption and income

We construct key household and individual economic variables using a panel micro data set from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) for 1994–2005. We analyze cross-sectional income and consumption inequality trends and find that inequality decreased during the 2000–2005 economic recovery. The decrease appears to be driven by falling volatility of transitory income shocks. The response of consumption to permanent and transitory income shocks becomes weaker later in the sample, consistent with greater self-insurance against permanent shocks and greater smoothing of transitory shocks. Finally, expenditure and income inequality in Russia are not far apart.     

Does Participation in the Food Stamp Program Increase the Prevalence of Obesity and Health Care Spending?

We use panel data techniques and information on state-level Food Stamp Program characteristics to obtain unbiased estimates of the impact of Food Stamp Program participation on weight status and health care spending among nonelderly adults. Our results suggest that program participation by women leads to a 5.9% (p = 0.07) increase in their likelihood of overweight and obesity, which is smaller than previous estimates, and to higher medical expenditures. The direct effect of program participation on medical spending through higher discretionary income is significantly larger than the indirect effect through changes in weight status.     

When does FDI have positive spillovers? Evidence from 17 transition market economies

We use rich firm-level data and national input–output tables from 17 countries over the 2002–2005 period to test new and existing hypotheses about the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the efficiency of domestic firms in the host country (i.e., spillovers). We document that backward linkages have a consistently positive effect on productivity of domestic firms while horizontal and forward linkages show no consistent effect. We also examine how the strength of spillovers varies by sector, FDI source, institutional environment (corruption, red tape, level of development), firm’s distance to the technological frontier, and other firm- and country-specific characteristics.     

Financial constraints and continental business groups: Evidence from German Konzerns

Using a unique large panel of German firms, we examine whether participation in business groups (Konzerns) reduces the sensitivity of investment to cash flow. The main finding is that the investment sensitivity is significantly reduced for small firms. On the other hand, we do not find clear evidence that medium-sized and large firms participating in Konzerns have different sensitivity compared to that of their stand-alone counterparts. We conclude that the German business model, which embodies key elements of the continental business model, seems to alleviate capital market imperfections for medium-sized and large firms and fails to do so for small firms.     

Monetary policy when potential output is uncertain: Understanding the growth gamble of the 1990s

The Fed kept interest rates low and essentially unchanged during the late 1990s despite a booming economy and record-low unemployment. These interest rates were accommodative by historical standards. Nonetheless, inflation remained low. How did the Fed succeed in sustaining rapid economic growth without fueling inflation and inflationary expectations? In retrospect, it is evident that the productive capacity of the economy increased. Yet as events unfolded, there was uncertainty about the expansion of the capacity of the economy and therefore about the sustainability of the Fed's policy.This paper provides an explanation for the success of the Fed in accommodating growth with stable inflation in the late 1990s. It shows that if the central bank is committed to reverse policy errors it makes because of unwarranted optimism, inflation can remain in check even if the central bank keeps interest rates low because of this optimism. In particular, a price level target—which is a simple way to model a commitment to offset errors—can serve to anchor inflation even if the public does not share the central bank's optimism about shifts in potential output. The paper shows that price level targeting is superior to inflation targeting in a wide range of situations. The paper also provides econometric evidence that, in contrast to earlier periods, the Fed has recently put substantial weight on the price level in setting interest rates. Moreover, it shows that CPI announcement surprises lead to reversion in the price level. Finally, it provides textual evidence that Alan Greenspan puts relatively more weight on the price level than inflation.     

The economics of options-implied inflation probability density functions

Recently a market in options based on consumer price index inflation (inflation caps and floors) has emerged in the US. This paper uses quotes on these derivatives to construct probability densities for inflation. We study how these probability density functions respond to news announcements and find that the implied odds of deflation are sensitive to certain macroeconomic news releases. We also estimate empirical pricing kernels using these option prices along with time series models fitted to inflation. The options-implied densities assign considerably more mass to extreme inflation outcomes (either deflation or high inflation) than do their time series counterparts. This yields a U-shaped empirical pricing kernel, with investors having high marginal utility in states of the world characterized by either deflation or high inflation.     

Estimation of DSGE models when the data are persistent

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are often solved and estimated under specific assumptions as to whether the exogenous variables are difference or trend stationary. However, even mild departures of the data generating process from these assumptions can severely bias the estimates of the model parameters. This paper proposes new estimators that do not require researchers to take a stand on whether shocks have permanent or transitory effects. These procedures have two key features. First, the same filter is applied to both the data and the model variables. Second, the filtered variables are stationary when evaluated at the true parameter vector. The estimators are approximately normally distributed not only when the shocks are mildly persistent, but also when they have near or exact unit roots. Simulations show that these robust estimators perform well especially when the shocks are highly persistent yet stationary. In such cases, linear detrending and first differencing are shown to yield biased or imprecise estimates.     

Wealth Effects of Seasoned Equity Offerings: A Meta‐Analysis

We use meta‐analysis to review studies on announcement effects associated with seasoned equity offerings. Our sample includes 199 studies from 38 leading finance journals and Social Sciences Research Network working papers. The studies cover different countries, but the US is particularly well‐represented with 131 studies. We find a statistically significant mean cumulative abnormal return of −0.98%. Abnormal returns are more negative for equity issues by US companies and for non‐US rights issues and are less negative for private placements. In addition, wealth effects are more negative when the proceeds are used for debt reduction, when the SEO is issued shortly after IPO, and for issues by nondividend‐paying companies and industrial companies. We identify important avenues for future research.     

An Empirical Comparison of Convertible Bond Valuation Models

This paper empirically compares three convertible bond valuation models. We use an innovative approach where all model parameters are estimated by the Marquardt algorithm using a subsample of convertible bond prices. The model parameters are then used for out-of-sample forecasts of convertible bond prices. The mean absolute deviation is 1.86% for the Ayache-Forsyth-Vetzal model, 1.94% for the Tsiveriotis-Fernandes model, and 3.73% for the Brennan-Schwartz model. For this and other measures of fit, the Ayache-Forsyth-Vetzal and Tsiveriotis-Fernandes models outperform the Brennan-Schwartz model.