河北省民间金融与民营经济发展研究——基于金融可持续发展视角

近年来,河北省民营经济发展迅猛,占据了省内经济的半壁江山.与此同时,省内民问金融规模也呈上升态势,有力地支持着省内民营经济发展.本文从金融可持续发展视角探索了民问金融与民营经济的互动关系及民间金融的变化,并提出了民间金融与民营经济发展的建议.     

河北省民间金融健康发展的思路与对策

民间金融在河北省民营经济发展中具有重要地位和作用。随着金融体制改革的不断深化和金融市场的逐步开放,民间金融发展环境正在发生质的改变。适应新的政策环境和形势需要,引导、规范和促进民间金融的健康发展,对于河北经济发展和金融制度创新都具有十分重要的现实意义。发展民间金融要坚持发展与规范相结合,与正规金融机构改革相结合,与发展民营经济和促进全民创业相结合,优化信用环境,为民间金融发展创造条件。     

民间金融与民营经济发展问题探析——以玉田县为例

本文通过探析民间金融发展对民营经济的影响因素,对县域民间金融支持民营经济发展的现状、民营经济融资面临的困境及成因进行了分析,提出了对策建议.     

我国民间金融变迁的路径依赖

在我国民营经济较为发达的区域经济内,民间金融随着经济结构的变化而不断变迁.本文以温州地区的民间金融制度变迁为例,在对其进行经济与效率分析的基础上,指出不应简单消除民间金融,提出规范民间金融的必要性,及发展内生于民营经济的中小金融机构,建立服务于中小企业、适合区域经济发展的金融体系.     

探索民间金融发展的新路子

为加快推进以"国际金融、产业金融、科技金融、民生金融、农村金融"为重点领域的区域金融中心建设,广州市以民间金融为突破口,立足本地民营经济发展现状,引导民间金融要素聚集发展,探索建立民间融资定价机制,建成了全国首条民间金融街,在创新、规范发展民间金融方面走出了一条新路子。     

基于民间金融视角的温州家族企业融资问题研究

本文从民间金融角度,以浙江温州的家族企业为切入点,分析利用温州家族企业融资及民间金融的现状、民间金融满足家族企业融资需求现状。根据目前浙江温州的家族企业融资问题,可以从家族企业改变自身缺陷角度(如改变单一的产权结构,接受多元化投资主体;发挥家族企业特有优势,提高企业的诚信观念等)、规范温州民间金融发展(如允许民间资本进入金融领域、促进民间借贷利率市场化、民间金融与小额贷款公司相结合、建立多层次金融服务体系、发展地方资本市场等),以及进一步完善外部监管条件三个方面解决温州的家族企业融资问题。最后,温州民营经济是中国民营经济重要的组成部分,家族企业作为温州民营企业的最普遍的形式。解决好家族企业的融资问题,为温州民营经济发展解决一大难题,促进温州经济可持续发展。     

基于民间金融视角的温州家族企业融资问题研究

本文从民间金融角度,以浙江温州的家族企业为切入点,分析利用温州家族企业融资及民间金融的现状、民间金融满足家族企业融资需求现状。根据目前浙江温州的家族企业融资问题,可以从家族企业改变自身缺陷角度(如改变单一的产权结构,接受多元化投资主体;发挥家族企业特有优势,提高企业的诚信观念等)、规范温州民间金融发展(如允许民间资本进入金融领域、促进民间借贷利率市场化、民间金融与小额贷款公司相结合、建立多层次金融服务体系、发展地方资本市场等),以及进一步完善外部监管条件三个方面解决温州的家族企业融资问题。最后,温州民营经济是中国民营经济重要的组成部分,家族企业作为温州民营企业的最普遍的形式。解决好家族企业的融资问题,为温州民营经济发展解决一大难题,促进温州经济可持续发展。     

共生原理下民间金融生态秩序调整

改革开放以来,我国民间金融以其独特的方式迅速发展,在帮助解决中小民营企业融资问题的同时,也带来了相应的金融生态秩序问题。本文从共生视角出发,把共生理论与模型实证分析相结合,分析说明民间金融与民营经济的共生依存关系,阐述影响民间金融生态秩序的共生发展问题。在此基础上,依据因势利导原则,提出引导民间金融有序健康发展的相关建议。     

缓解河北民营中小企业融资难—基于发展民间金融视角

近年来,民营经济为河北经济的发展做出了巨大贡献,然而融资难题却始终制约着民营中小企业的发展,从利用民间金融融资的角度,分析了民间金融在民营中小企业融资中的优势及可能存在的风险,并提出规范民间金融的对策建议。     

民间金融的存在与发展：一个供给的视角

随着民营经济的发展,需求决定论对民间金融发展规律的解释力逐渐降低,民间金融供给因素的重要性得以体现。从供给视角来分析,我国民间金融将长期、稳定地存在和发展,民间金融的利率水平、创新能力和营销水平,将是影响民间金融发展的关键因素。同时,立足供给视角可以看出,市场化模式是民间金融发展的最优选择,而市场化发展模式的现实组织体系是区域民间金融市场。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.