期权理论在企业并购价值评估中的应用

企业并购,是一项高风险的投资决策,是典型的战略投资。而并购的估价又是整个并购成败的关键。目前,传统的评估方法即便是最常用的折现现金流量法,在估值时也往往忽略了并购方隐含的期权价值,而低估了并购的价值,进而可能错过了有利的并购机会。本文拟从期权的角度阐述企业并购和期权的关系,提出企业并购价值评估中,基于期权理论和现金流量折现法的企业价值评估模型。     

基于上市公司企业价值评估方法探析

随着资本市场及经济全球化的不断深入发展,企业并购重组的大量涌现,企业价值评估日益受到人们的重视。上市公司价值评估是企业价值评估中的重要组成部分,但是由于企业价值的复杂性,使得采用任何单一的评估方法都会存在评估结果出现差异的问题,因此,如何使评估结果更加切合实际,是上市公司在企业价值评估中方法选择的重点。本文首先对企业价值的概念做了简要阐述,根据企业价值评估的目的及市场经济现状,笔者认为,应对上市公司企业价值评估采用现金流量折现法,并与非财务指标评估有机结合,突出核心人才、企业治理、创新能力和外部环境对企业价值的作用,以期为上市公司企业价值评估提供参考。     

折现现金流量法及其缺陷

价值评估是财务管理的核心内容之一。价值评估的方法有多种,归纳起来有三类,即以利润为基础、以现金流为基础和以资产为基础。折现现金流量法就是以现金流为基础的一种价值评估方法。本文拟从这种方法的评估思路出发,引出其应用中的局限性并加以说明。一、模型及基本思路持续经营公司的价值,是其未来现金流量的净现值。折现现金流量法(DiscountedCashFlow,简称DCF),就是用未来现金流量的净现值来评估公司价值。其模型为:公司的价值(V)=未来现金流量的净现值=C1-I1(1+r)+C2-I2(1+r)2+C3-I3(1+r)3+···式中,Ct-It表示第t年的自由现金…     

普查阶段收益途径评估法在矿业权评估中的应用

折现现金流量法和折现现金流量风险系数调整法分属于收益途径矿业权评估方法。这两种评估方法在评估原理、计算公式、适用范围等方面都很相似,通过案例分析其在评估模型、评估参数的选取等方面的差异性,以此来验证两种评估方法从不同的角度所表现的矿业权评估价值。     

投资决策预算新思考

一、要重新认识投资决策预算的一些基本问题投资决策分为长期和短期投资决策,相应地投资决策预算也就有长短期之分。投资决策预算对我国大部分企业而言是个薄弱环节,也是长期困扰企业战略管理的关键问题。1.长期投资决策预算采用现金折现法。为了提高其科学性和合理性,在估算折现率和现金流量时,常采用现金流量折现法进行。这样,既不要人为夸大风险、高估折现率、低估现金流量,也不要不考虑风险、低估折现率、高估现金流量。因为现代长期投资决策模式多采用复利折现法,高估或低估折现率,对未来远期现金流量的现值将有很大影响,会淘汰那些未…     

基于EVA和DCF企业价值评估方法的比较研究

EVA和DCF分别从经济增加值和现金流量的角度评估企业价值。这两种方法各有其优越性,但是孰优孰劣没有定论。本文从EVA的基本原理出发,对应用EVA技术进行企业价值评估的方法与模型进行了完善。对比了EVA法和DCF法的不同,并利用某上市公司的数据进行实例分析,结论认为:EVA评估方法更加客观与科学。     

实物期权在电子商务投资决策中的应用

电子商务自产生以来迅猛发展。由于电子商务的投资具有极大的不确定性,标准的折现现金流量模型,如净现值法或更为传统的投资回报率法不适于用来评估其价值。因此,本文将使用一种新的方法-实物期权法,分析其在电子商务投资决策中的作用与优势以及它与净现值法的区别。     

经济增加值在业绩评价与价值管理中的应用

<正>一、经济增加值、业绩评价与价值管理的含义经济增加值又称经济附加值(Economic Value Added简称EVA),是由美国学者Stewart提出的一种先进的公司价值管理理念。它把以会计基础的相关数据和价值基础的管理要求有机的结合在一起,是企业投资资本收益超过加权平均资本成本部分的价值,或者企业未来现金流量以加权平均资本成本率折现后的现值大于零的部分。     

资产评估主要方法简介

资产评估的方法主要有以下几种: 1 收益现值法 收益现值是企业在连续经营下所产生的预期收益按社会基准收益率或同行业平均资金利润率计算的折现值。其价值基础是再生产过程中活劳动所创造的一部分价值所形成的利润以及净回收投入资金之和。收益现值法即根据被评估资产的现值评定重估价值。收益现值评估有以下方法。 1.1 市场法。当近期市场上有与被评估资产相同或相似的资产成交,可以把成交价作为     

企业如何防范项目投资风险

投资决策是企业财务管理的一个重要组成部分 ,风险和报酬对投资决策起着至关重要的作用 ,是影响投资决策的关键因素。一、投资决策研究的重点是现金流量既然风险和报酬是影响投资决策的关键因素 ,在市场经济条件下 ,风险和报酬分析必然要考虑资金的时间价值 ,也就必须要涉及到投资项目的现金流量。现金流量是现代企业管理中最重要的一个指标 ,甚至比利润更重要。在市场经济中企业还必须有能力再把实物变回到货币。这种从货币到货币的现金流量对于企业 ,就像氧气对于人体 ,非常重要。同时 ,利润是按权责发生制确定的 ,而现金流量是根据收付实…     

Spectrum value

Radio spectrum is a scarce resource; understanding its economic value is one piece of information needed to manage it efficiently. Estimating the value of radio spectrum, however, creates significant challenges not found in valuing some other assets. Spectrum is somewhat of a special case; market transactions provide a basis for valuation, but almost always require significant adjustments. Some adjustments are best made using discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis or econometric evidence. A review of past work on spectrum valuations suggests that focusing on a single valuation technique leaves critical information about spectrum value unused.     

自由现金流 金字塔股权结构与公司价值关系实证研究

本文以2007-2010年的A股上市公司为样本,从终极控制人角度研究了上市公司终极控股股东两权分离下自由现金流、控制层级和控制链条与公司价值的关系。自由现金流约束可以抑制控股股东的掏空行为,提高企业价值。控制层级与企业价值呈负相关关系,而控制链条数与企业价值呈正相关关系。     

A NOTE ON THE OPTIMAL CYCLE LENGTH WITH A RANDOM PLANNING HORIZON

In 1993, Moon and Yun studied the economic order quantity model with a random planning horizon. They adopted the discounted cash flow to fully recognize the time value of money in determining the optimal cycle length. In this paper, we first derive bounds for the optimal cycle length. With those bounds, the algorithm of Moon and Yun can be simplified.     

贴现现金流量法在煤炭上市公司价值评估中的应用

介绍了采用贴现现金流量法评价煤炭上市公司资源价值,从而进一步实现对上市公司价值的评价的方法。同时使用该方法对靖远煤电公司的资源价值以及上市公司价值进行了评估。     

Evaluation of a mining project under the joint effect of commodity price and exchange rate uncertainties using real options valuation

Cash flows generated by mining projects tend to be volatile and are extensively influenced by exogenous variables, notably commodity prices and exchange rates. The traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) method, which is normally used for economic feasibility studies and mining project evaluations, presents inconsistencies because the method fails to adequately address uncertainties and operational flexibilities and often ignores certain specific market conditions. Numerous studies have been carried out for mining project evaluations using the real options valuation (ROV) technique for assessing commodity price uncertainty, but there is no research on the combined effects of price and exchange rate uncertainties. Therefore, in order to assess the economic viability of a mining project more accurately, the commodity price and its inherent volatility, the exchange rate and its inherent volatility, and the correlation parameters between them have been incorporated into the model and used in the evaluation process. One of the interesting findings revealed in the study is that project values are overestimated if only commodity price uncertainty is considered in evaluating the project value instead of the joint effect of commodity price and exchange rate uncertainties. This new ROV technique will explore the opportunity to utilize an alternative methodology for approximating project values and to identify valuation opportunities to enhance economic gains or to mitigate economic losses, where the DCF valuation method does not.     

FREE CASH FLOW (FCF), ECONOMIC VALUE ADDED (EVA™), AND NET PRESENT VALUE (NPV):. A RECONCILIATION OF VARIATIONS OF DISCOUNTED-CASH-FLOW (DCF) VALUATION

The paper assists the user of DCF methods by clearly setting forth the relationship of free-cash-flow (FCF) and economic value added (EVA?) concepts to each other and to the more traditional applications of DCF thinking. We follow others in demonstrating the equivalence between EVA and NPV, but our approach is more general in that it links the problems of security valuation, enterprise valuation, and investment project selection. Additionally, our approach relates more directly to use of standard financial accounting information. Beginning with cash budget identity, we show that the discounting of appropriately defined cash flows under the free-cash-flow valuation approach (FCF) is mathematically equivalent to the discounting of appropriately defined economic profits under the EVA? approach. The concept of net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT), found by adding after-tax interest payments to net profit after taxes, is central to both approaches, but there the computational similarities end. The FCF approach focuses on the periodic total cash flows obtained by deducting total net investment and adding net debt issuance to net operating cash flow, whereas the EVA? approach requires defining the periodic total investment in the firm. In a project valuation context, both FCF and EVA? are conceptually equivalent to NPV. Each approach necessitates a myriad of adjustments to the accounting information available for most corporations.     

Genetic Algorithms and Engineering Design

Viewing the future value of a cash flow stream as a polynomial in the compounding factor (being one plus the interest rate), this article uses Ruffini's rule in the synthetic division of a polynomial to provide insight linking several discounted cash flow analysis concepts. We use the polynomial remainder theorem to relate the concepts of divisor, quotient, and remainder to concepts in cash flow analysis—future value, present value, interest rate, account balance, and internal rate(s) of return—establishing a remainder theorem for the future value of a cash flow. Our exposition suggests that future value analysis is perhaps more direct and mathematically more transparent than attention paid to examining present value. This article extends previous work on the resolution of multiple rates of return when the interest rate used in our analysis equals an internal rate of return of the cash flow.     

基于价值网络的企业价值计量模式研究

企业生活在一个多维价值网络系统中,这一价值网络系统由企业外部的微观价值网络体系、产业价值网络体系和社会价值网络体系共同构成。多维价值网络体系促进了企业智力资本的积累与发展,导致企业无形价值边界逐步脱离有形价值边界,产生了企业的双重价值边界,提升了企业无形价值和整体价值。多维价值网络环境下的企业价值计量包括有形价值计量和无形价值计量,有形价值计量以测量企业物质财富的经济价值为目的,通常采用财务计价或财务估价模式,无形价值计量以测量企业智力资本的价值创造潜力为目的,通常计量、财务计价、财务估价、非财务价值计量、非财务价值估计等多种模式综合并用。     

A Companion For NPV: The Generalized Relative Rate of Return

We show how to determine a unique rate, for a particular cash flow stream, that is used only whenever a project demands outside resources to compound the rates of the existing term structure precisely at those times. The net present value of the cash flow stream when discounted with the thus-modified term structure becomes zero. We therefore determine a vector of rates that belongs to the induced space of internal rates of return for that cash flow stream. The rate is applicable under discrete stochastic interest rate representations and provides maximum loan rates that may be contracted only when needed thus keeping a project financially autonomous. (Any investments required may be fully repaid by the project's own cash outflows).