Unemployment in Africa: A Fractional Integration Approach

This paper estimates long‐memory models to analyse the stochastic behaviour of unemployment in eleven African countries (Botswana, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Mauritius, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia) from the 1960s until 2010. The empirical results provide very strong evidence of lack of mean reversion in all series under examination. This suggests that hysteresis models are the most relevant for the African experience (not surprisingly, given the rigidities in their labour markets). Therefore in such countries shocks hitting the unemployment series will have permanent effects, and policy makers should take appropriate action to reverse the effects of negative shocks.     

Female Access and Rights to Land,and Rural Non‐farm Entrepreneurship in Four African Countries

This paper examines the relationship between female access to land, rights to such land, and engagement in non‐farm entrepreneurship in rural Africa. We used data from the four countries (Ethiopia, Nigeria, Tanzania and Malawi) that were featured in the Living Standards Measurement Study—Integrated Surveys in Agriculture dataset for the period 2013–15. To estimate the relationship, we compute the marginal effect from the logistic regression, while controlling for other important covariates that explain non‐farm activities at the individual/household level. We find that overall, women's access to land and rights to such land significantly explain their likelihood to engage in non‐farm enterprises. However, this relationship is not seen across the sampled countries. In Nigeria, for instance, we find that though the relationship is positive, it was not significant. While for Ethiopia, Tanzania and Malawi, we find a positive and significant relationship. We explain our result based on two important perspectives. The policy implications of our result are included in the paper.     

The Revenue–Expenditure Nexus: The Experience of 13 African Countries

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the causal relationship between government revenue and government expenditure for 13 African countries within a multivariate framework using a modified version of the Granger causality test due to Toda and Yamamoto (1995) . The empirical evidence suggests that there was a bi‐directional causality running between expenditure and revenue for Mauritius, Swaziland and Zimbabwe; no causality in any direction for Botswana, Burundi and Rwanda; unidirectional causality running from revenue to expenditure for Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Mali and Zambia; and a uni‐directional causality running from expenditure to revenue for Burkina Faso only.     

Special gains from trade with socialist countries: The case of Tanzania

Trade does not necessarily benefit all trading partners and heavy dependence on trade is a precarious matter. Trade with socialist countries could confer special advantages on Third World trading partners thus making a net benefit more likely. However this requires conditions in which trade ceases to be ‘mere exchange of commodities’ and becomes an element of planned economic integration. Given a non-planned Third World country like Tanzania and given recent approaches to international trade by most socialist countries, it is not surprising that Tanzania is shown to have derived no particular benefits from its trade with the socialist countries. The trade was merely an exchange of commodities, with the possible exception of the trade with China.     

African Stock Markets: Efficiency and Relative Predictability

The weak form of the efficient markets hypothesis is tested for eight African stock markets using three finite‐sample variance ratio tests. A rolling window captures short‐horizon predictability, tracks changes in predictability and is used to rank markets by relative predictability. These stock markets experience successive periods when they are predictable and then not predictable; this is consistent with the adaptive markets hypothesis. The degree of predictability varies widely: the least predictable African stock markets are those located in Egypt, South Africa and Tunisia, while the most predictable are in Kenya, Zambia and Nigeria.     

Resource allocation, equality of access and health

Based upon the experience of Tanzania, this paper relates resource allocation in the health sector to the output of health, by contrasting access to and utilization of available health services by urban and rural populations. The writer argues that increased health expenditures alone cannot yield an efficient health care return unless the additional expenditure is spread ‘thinly’, in keeping with the realities of population distribution, transport possibilities, and disease patterns in most poor countries. Detailed data are presented for recurrent and capital expenditures for health facilities at different levels, and the output of those institutions is considered in terms of the volume of services offered. Those services are then measured according to their utilization by urban and rural populations. Because referral systems are found to function only marginally, it is argued that further building of large hospitals is not justified in the present situation of most poor countries. Specifically, the writer describes the ways in which Tanzania is changing its inefficient and unjust health care system. The paper concludes that the major obstacles to change are not shortages of resources or technologic ignorance but social systems that do not place high value upon the health care needs of rural peasants. It is in this way that the professional and elitist interests of the few are often destructive of the needs of the many.     

Children’s Work in Nigeria: Exploring the Implications of Gender, Urban–Rural Residence, and Household Socioeconomic Status

Child labor in developing countries continues to be a topic of policy and academic concern, particularly in Africa where there are more working children than in any other region. Scholarly attention has been drawn in part to gender, place of residence, and socioeconomic status as factors that shape the type of work that children perform and whether it impacts educational attainment. I explore these issues in the context of Nigeria through analysis of data from the 2004 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey EdData Survey. A series of logistic regression models of child labor confirm the existence of gender and, especially, socioeconomic disparities in children??s work. The data also indicate that girls and rural children face a double risk of working if they belong to poor households. A policy implication is that poverty alleviation programs??such as Mexico??s Oportunidades program (the erstwhile PROGRESA)??may help to reduce those forms of child labor that interfere with schooling. That this program has been found to more beneficial for girls suggests it may be particularly appropriate for Nigeria where gender disparities persist.     

Market-based incentives in South Africa and Zambia: A comparative analysis of the clean development mechanism

The clean development mechanism (CDM) is intended to serve as a market-based incentive that is both efficient and cost-effective for eligible developing countries. The analysis contained in this article explores why, in theory, such an attractive incentive opportunity has been so under-utilised in sub-Saharan Africa. The paper compares the experience of the CDM in South Africa and Zambia. These two Southern African countries were selected because of their varying levels of statehood, South Africa being an emerging, middle-income economy while Zambia is classified as a least developed country. General challenges affecting the CDM were identified in the literature to be awareness, capacity, eligibility and access to finance. The paper then compares how these overarching issues specifically impact the CDM experience in South Africa and Zambia. The paper finds that common complexities relating to the CDM have varying implications for eligible host countries at different levels of statehood.     

FINANCIAL INTEGRATION IN THE COMMON MONETARY AREA*

This paper assesses the level of financial integration within the CMA countries, using the concept of the uncovered interest rate parity. The impact of foreign interest rates on the domestic interest rates, in this case the South African rates on the rates of the LNS countries, is analysed. For comparative purposes, other neighbouring countries such as Botswana, Zambia and Zimbabwe are brought into the analysis. The results from the uncovered interest rate parity approach show that Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland can be considered to be well financially integrated with the South African market, while for Botswana, Zambia and Zimbabwe it shows the contrary.     

Sources of Industrial Growth in Kenya,Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe: Some Estimates

Résumé: Resume: Pour etudier les sources de croissance industrielle au Kenya, en Tanzanie, en Zambie et au Zimbabwe, nous avons utilise dans cet ouvrage la methode de la formation de production appliquee a la croissance, le taux de croissance du facteur de la productivite globale (T.F.P.G.) sont calculees sur une periode allant de 1964 a 1983 pour ces pays. Pour le Zimbabwe le taux de croissance du T.F.P.G. est positif mais n'a aucune signification. Donc, pour tous ces pays une croissance de facteur des moyens de production influe en grande partie sur la croissance industrielle. En comparant des etudes faites sur les pays developpes avec celles faites sur les pays en developpement nous constatons que la contribution de l'augmentation des facteurs de production est relativement negligeable, mais celle du T.F.P.G. est significative. Puis, dans ce document nous considererons les causes approximatives de la performance nulle du T.F.P.G. dans ces pays etudies. Puis nous analyserons les variations de la capa-cite d'exploitation, des tailles du marche, des politiques macro-economiques, des structures du marche, du niveau de developpement des capacites techno-logiques. Abstract: This paper utilizes a growth accounting production function approach to analyze the sources of industrial growth in Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Rates of Total Factor Productivity Growth (TFPG) are calculated for these countries during periods in between 1964 and 1983. The estimates indicate negative growth rates of TFP in Kenya, Tanzania and Zambia. For Zimbabwe the growth rate of TFP is found to be positive but insignificant. Hence, for all of these countries increase in factor inputs mostly accounts for manufacturing growth. By comparison studies for developed countries and some developing countries showed a relatively unimportant contribution from increased inputs and a significant contribution from TFPG. The paper, then considers some of the proximate causes of the poor performance in TFPG in the countries—studied. The roles of changes of capacity utilization, market size, macro-economic policies, market structures, level of development of technological capability are analyzed.     

水足迹视角下世界主要经济体的水资源利用效率研究

本文利用EORA数据库中水足迹相关数据,测算了2006-2015年46个世界主要经济体的水资源利用效率,研究结果发现:(1)在2006-2015年始终位于前沿面(水资源利用效率值等于1)的国家有阿尔及利亚、埃及、法国、伊拉克、荷兰、尼日利亚、沙特阿拉伯、新加坡、阿联酋、委内瑞拉.(2)澳大利亚、加拿大、捷克、丹麦、芬兰、德国、意大利、波兰、韩国等国家在2006-2015年水资源利用效率相对较低,绿水和蓝水的投入以及非期望产出灰水的无效率值均在0.9以上.因此,水资源利用效率较低的国家需要向水资源利用效率较高的国家学习先进的节水技术和污水治理经验,并因地制宜制定水资源政策.     

新世纪中亚国家能源地位变化的实证分析

鉴于中亚国家在世界能源市场中竞争地位的凸显,本文采用聚类分析法,选取了12个主要经济体作为样本,对新世纪中亚国家的能源生产、消费及出口在世界能源市场中的地位予以分析。分析得出：从生产地位来看,中亚国家与世界主要能源生产国同属一类;从消费地位来看,中亚国家不属于世界主要的能源消费国;从出口地位来看,其生产地位和消费地位共同决定了中亚国家在世界能源市场中的出口地位越来越重要;综合能源生产、消费和出口地位来看,中亚国家在世界能源市场中的竞争地位凸显,与美国、俄罗斯、伊朗、埃及和印度同属一类。同时,分析还显示,与拥有丰富能源资源的中亚国家开展合作应该有利于解决我国能源短缺问题。     

The district administrator in rural development

Although the “district administrator” was, and still is, identified under various titles, there was a common role of generalist administrative head within a spatial unit of field administration. For several decades the district administrator's authority was steadily diminished but he never completely disappeared from the scene and he is now making a strong return. The authority of the district administrator is also often augmented, and controlled, by the appointment of a political officer in the same locality. In the process he has come to need special experience in the field of development. In many countries the district administrator is supported in his development work by specialist development officers.

This article traces the changing but persistent role of the district administrator in certain former British territories in Southern, Central and East Africa. Particular reference is made to Botswana, parts of South Africa, Zambia, Malawi, Tanzania and Kenya.     

False Promise or False Premise? The Experience of Food and Input Market Reform in Eastern and Southern Africa

The literature on the effects of agricultural market reform in Africa is sharply divided and inconsistent. This article attempts to reconcile opposing viewpoints on the effects of food and input market policy reform in eastern and southern Africa. Drawing from studies of Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, we argue that a major source of the controversy stems from assumptions that countries have actually moved to a liberalized market environment. We find that many of the most fundamental elements of the reform programs either remain unimplemented, were reversed within several years, or were implemented in such a way as to negate private sector investment incentives. A framework is developed for explaining why some countries have been able to liberalize their food and fertilizer markets while others have not. These findings have implications for how donor assistance and policy-oriented research can more constructively contribute to an improved policy environment.     

Selection and Reporting Bias in Household Surveys of Child Labor: Evidence from Tanzania

Abstract: Studies of child labor in developing countries have largely relied on data collected through national household surveys. But government‐sponsored household surveys are arguably prone to both sample selection bias and reporting bias. In this paper, we compare the demographic and labor market characteristics of working street children obtained from the 2000 Tanzanian Integrated Labor Force Survey, a government‐sponsored household survey, with the results obtained in a 2004 survey of working street children in the city of Mwanza in northern Tanzania. Our comparisons help illumine the potential biases introduced when child labor studies rely on household samples; specifically, we show that children in the non‐household based survey work longer hours, have lower educational attainment and suffer worse health outcomes than their counterparts in the government‐sponsored household survey. This suggests that studies based on national household surveys may significantly underestimate both the extent and the consequences of child labor.     

Measuring Exchange Market Pressure and Its Contagion in the East African Community

As the members of the East African Community seek to further integrate their economies, issues of compatibility arise. How interlinked are these countries' exchange markets, and which currencies are most likely to influence their neighbours? This study constructs monthly indices of exchange market pressure (EMP) for Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda over the past decade. Two methods of constructing these indices are shown to exhibit large differences. Vector autoregressive approaches are then applied to the main EMP series and a set of global stock price proxies. Kenya, the dominant economy, is shown to have the largest effect on the region but is not itself affected by other regional currencies. Foreign stock price declines increase EMP for all countries except Tanzania, which is also the least integrated in terms of trade. This suggests that financial integration in the region is uneven – with implications for a successful common currency.     

FOREIGN BANTU WORKERS IN SOUTH AFRICA: THEIR PRESENT POSITION IN THE ECONOMY

It is not possible to compile accurate statistics about the size, origin, distribution, earnings, remittances and similar measurable aspects of the foreign Bantu labour force in South Africa. From the foregoing discussion it will be obvious that such data are most unlikely to become available in the foreseeable future. There is, however, a growing need for reasonably reliable information concerning economic interrelationships in Southern Africa. The only way to arrive at a workable basis for informed studies of labour matters in the regional context, appears to be the one followed here. By compiling, and fully documenting, as much of the accessible and relevant data as possible into comprehensive and intrinsically consistent tables, the present article can, it is hoped, serve as a convenient starting point for further, more detailed investigations. Briefly, the principal figures derived in the foregoing may be recapitulated. The total number of foreign workers in the Republic in 1964 can be put at roughly half a million men, almost 300,000 (59 per cent.) of them in mining, about 140,000 (29 per cent.) in agriculture, and about 60,000 (12 per cent.) in other employment. In these sectors, they constitute roughly 53, 14, and under 4 per cent. respectively of all Bantu employed there. Approximately 45 per cent. of all foreign workers come from the former High Commission Territories (Basotho accounting for about 60 per cent of this group), about 30 per cent. from Moçambique, 18 per cent. from Rhodesia, Zambia and Malawi together, and the remaining 7 per cent. from South West Africa, Angola, Tanzania and other territories. The total annual earnings of foreigners can be put at R133.4 million (R82.3 million cash and R51.1 million in kind), out of which cash and goods to a total value of R23.9 million (R17.7 million cash and R6.2 million worth of goods) are estimated to be remitted to the countries of origin. About 40 per cent. of the total population of Southern Africa, more than 80 per cent. of its White inhabitants, and approximately two-thirds of the region's wage-earning opportunities for Bantu are to be found in the Republic. Apart from the remittances of migrant workers, the labour supplying countries derive substantial benefits, though of course to a varying degree, from the movement of their nationals to the Republic. These are: 1. the absorption of surplus population into the Bantu groups of the Republic; 2. the fact that at any given moment, a large number of people are living off the resources of another country instead of pressing on inadequate resources at home; 3. the financial benefits from the administrative activities of the recruiting organizations; and 4. the instruction in various subjects imparted to employees on the mines and elsewhere, and generally the knowledge and skills brought back by migrants to their home countries. (The social and economic drawbacks of the migrant labour system cannot be ignored but an evaluation of this system falls outside the scope of this study. It must be recognized that intra-regional labour movements are inextricably bound up with the economic life of Southern Africa. It can, rightly, be pointed out that the abundant supply of foreigners to mining and agriculture in the Republic tends to depress the earnings of indigenous Bantu in these sectors. It is, however, prima facie, open to serious doubt whether drastic reductions in the number of foreign workers is the best way to promote the economic well-being of the local Bantu population. From the standpoint of the labour exporting countries, it is naturally regrettable that their nationals are mostly confined to the less well paying sectors of the South African economy. On the other hand, and in view of the undeveloped state of their economies, they have every reason to welcome such employment opportunities as there may be in the Republic. The newly independent states of the region are earnestly striving to develop their potentialities. By supplying (or releasing) scarce resources, labour migration to the Republic contributes materially, and in the case of Lesotho and Botswana even decisively, towards the attainment of higher levels of living throughout the region. The Republic's neighbours would suffer most if political passion or animosity towards South Africa were to disrupt the present network of the intra-regional flow of labour.     

中国经济转型期嵌入内生增长模式的战略思考

根据原生市场经济国家和再生市场经济国家形成的内生增长模式与导入增长模式为理论框架,研究再生市场经济的国家从导入增长模式向内生增长模式转变的过程中,应避免陷入对引进依赖的陷阱,从协调发展观的高度实现增长模式的转型。目前中国的经济正处在增长模式转型时期,而且存在着引入陷阱的潜在风险,规避这个风险的战略选择是需要在导入增长模式中嵌入内生增长模式战略。     

The trans‐Atlantic slave trade and local political fragmentation in Africa

This article examines the possibility that the trans‐Atlantic slave trade influenced the political institutions of villages and towns in precolonial Africa. Using anthropological data, it shows that villages and towns of ethnic groups with higher slave exports were more politically fragmented during the precolonial era. Instrumental variables are used to show that the relationship is causal. It is argued that this fragmentation is important for relative economic development because it still influences political institutions today. This argument is supported by the use of more contemporary data to show that in contemporary Nigeria and Tanzania, areas with higher levels of precolonial political fragmentation have a higher incidence of bribery.