Immigration policy: a selective approach

Recommendations are offered concerning Japanese policy on the immigration of foreign workers. The author notes that even those countries that used to welcome such immigrants now restrict their entry. The need for a selective policy that would aid internationalization in Japan and strengthen controls on illegal immigrants by requiring employers to secure permits before hiring foreigners is stressed.     

Illegal waste disposal: Enforcement actions and decentralized environmental policy

Environmental non-compliance is affected by the decentralized shaping of environmental policy by local governments and enforcement actions by public bodies. Illegal waste disposal is examined in a relevant national case, by means of an original regionally disaggregated panel dataset for Italy, a country which witnesses heterogeneous environmental performances across regions and a decentralized policy system. Our empirical analysis produces two main insights of strong policy interest. First, commitment to a more stringent waste policy tends to increase illegal disposal of waste. Second, a nonlinear bell shaped relationship exists between the number of inspections and the quantity of illegal disposal. The key message is that deterrence might only result after a relatively high level of controls is implemented.     

Migration: the trends converge

Formerly, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the US have served as permanent destinations for immigrants, while Europe's migrants have moved to more northerly countries to work for a time and then returned home. From 1973-1975 Europe's recruitment of foreign workers virtually ended, although family reunion for those immigrants allowed in was encouraged. Problems resulting from this new settlement migration include low paying jobs for immigrant women, high unemployment, and inadequate education for immigrant children. Illegal migrants from Latin America and the Caribbean enter the US and Canada each year while illegal North African immigrants enter Italy, Spain, and Greece. North America, Australia, and Europe have all received political refugees from Asia and Latin America. Increasingly, these foreigners compete in the labor market rather than simply fill jobs the native workers do not want. All the receiving countries have similar policy priorities: 1) more effective ways for controlling and monitoring inflows and checking illegal immigration; 2) encouraging normal living patterns and accepting refugees; and 3) integrating permanent migrants into the host country. Europe's public immigration encouragement prior to the first oil shock, has left some countries with a labor force that is reluctant to return home. It is unlikely that Europe will welcome foreign labor again in this decade, since unemployment among young people and women is high and family reunion programs may still bring in many immigrants. Less immigration pattern change will probably occur in North America, Australia, and New Zealand since these countries' populations are still growing and wages are more flexible. Immigration, regulated by policy, and emigration, determined by market forces, now are working in the same direction and will likely reduce future migration flows.     

The Robust Relationship Between US Food Aid and Civil Conflict

Humanitarian aid has long been considered an important means to reduce hunger and suffering in developing countries. A recent finding by Nunn and Qian (US food aid and civil conflict, American Economic Review 2014; 104 : 1630–1666) that such aid from the US increases the incidence and duration of civil conflict in recipient countries, however, questions the effectiveness of this policy and poses a serious policy concern for the US government. We revisit this issue by conducting a successful replication study of the results in their paper. In order to further scrutinize their claims that a heterogeneous effect of food aid on conflict is not present, we employ a semiparametric endogenous estimation procedure. We show that their parametric models cannot be rejected and argue that their findings are robust. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The integration of international financial markets: an attempt to quantify contagion in an input–output-type analysis

ABSTRACT

The increasing integration of international financial markets means that credit defaults in one country have to be covered by creditors in other countries. If the principle of creditor liability were applied systematically, the financial losses incurred by the financial institution that provided the credit and is thus directly affected by the default would be ‘passed on’ through its domestic and foreign shareholders and debt holders, as well as their creditors, to the original savers. In this paper, this contagion effect will be estimated by taking international capital linkages into account. Analogously to an input–output analysis of inter-industry linkages, savings used for investments in one country are traced back to the countries from which the funds originated. This also reveals the important role of international financial centers, which essentially serve as distributors of investment risks, while the financial losses are ultimately borne by larger countries with higher levels of savings.     

Tourism in peripheral regions: a Swedish policy perspective

To be successful as a motor in the development of declined regions, tourism must be integrated in a carefully planned regional development policy which has clear objectives. Regional development policy in Sweden is reviewed in the context of the northern peripheral areas of the country. The objectives were first economic and relied on the trickling down effect from the core. With the crisis of the 1970s the focus shifted to ‘quality of life’. Regional policy became more active with tourism as a sort of motor in the development plans. Most of the activities failed due to heavy dependence on investment in large public and private enterprises. The focus has now shifted to a more endogenous mode of development and, as a means to this, the restoration of the ‘brain balance’ through inward migration to the declined peripheral regions. The parameters for a tourism policy which would be a significant factor in creating an attractive region for tourism and for an inward migration which would play its role in a wider development process are set out.     

The exchange rate and machinery and equipment imports: Identifying the impact of import source and export destination country currency valuation changes

This paper presents estimates of the impact of exchange rate movements on the quantity of machinery and equipment imports. Many countries have become increasingly reliant on imports of these types of products and evidence in a number of studies indicates that investment in machinery and equipment contributes to improved productivity and growth. Unlike previous studies, this study differentiates between exchange rate movements with respect to machinery and equipment import source and final good export destination countries. Data are employed for two machinery and equipment importing countries, Australia and Canada, and two exporting countries, Japan and the U.S. The results indicate that a currency depreciation with respect to an import source country has a significant negative effect on the quantity of machinery and equipment imports, while a depreciation with respect to a domestic final good export destination country has a significant positive effect. These findings imply that the net impact on the quantity of machinery and equipment imports of an exchange rate change with respect to a particular country will depend on the extent to which that country is a supplier of machinery and equipment imports and a market for domestic exports.     

我国城镇廉租住房退出机制的探讨

廉租房政策是世界各国普遍推行的一项针对低收入群体的住房福利政策。它在保障低收入阶层的居住权发挥着重要的作用。因此,确保该政策准确覆盖目标群体至关重要。完善的廉租房退出机制将是实现这一目标的重要手段。在分析我国现行廉租房退出机制弊端的前提下,在借鉴发达国家和地区公共住房退出机制经验的基础上,力求探索和完善我国的廉租房退出机制。     

Interest Groups, Transfer Seeking and Democratization: Competition for the Benefits of Governmental Power May Explain African Political Instability

A bstract . The effect of permanent interest group transfer-seeking behavior on the degree of democratization is examined, Each permanent interest group is viewed as attempting to maximize its share of wealth transfers through the political process. To maximize the share of transfers, each group undertakes competitive strategies to control the instruments of transfers. Such competition is more intense the larger the number of permanent interest groups in a given country, and the higher the likelihood that the competition would involve non-democratic means to achieve and maintain control of the political machinery in those countries. It is predicted that the more intense the competition for transfers, which is a direct function of the number of permanent interest groups in any given country, the less democratic the system of government in that country is likely to be. This prediction is supported empirically using cross-sectional data for 65 countries.     

Macroeconomic and financial stability in a monetary union: The case of Lithuania

In this paper, we study the implications of macroprudential policies in a monetary union for macroeconomic and financial stability. For this purpose, we develop a two-country monetary union new Keynesian general equilibrium model with housing and collateral constraints, to be calibrated for Lithuania and the rest of the euro area. We consider two different scenarios for macroprudential policies: one in which the ECB extends its goals to also include financial stability and a second one in which a national macroprudential authority uses the loan-to-value ratio (LTV) as an instrument. The results show that both rules are effective in making the financial system more stable in both countries, and especially in Lithuania. This is because the financial sector in this country is more sensitive to shocks. We find that an extended Taylor rule is indeed effective in reducing the volatility of credit, but comes with a cost in terms of higher inflation volatility. The simple LTV rule, on the other hand, does not compromise the objective of monetary policy. This reinforces the “Tinbergen principle”, which argues that there should be two different instruments when there are two different policy goals.     

我国研发强度增长态势预测分析

一些发达国家的发展经验表明,一国研发强度超过2%之后将保持低速增长。我国若重蹈别国的覆辙,将难以实现到2020年研发强度达2.5%的目标。从2006年至今的发展情况来看,我国的研发强度在突破2%之后或仍将保持较快增长,有望提前实现2.5%的目标。     

Accounting for Administrative Change in Three Asia-Pacific States

The New Public Management (NPM) appears to be of universal applicability. However, if examined on a country-by-country basis we can observe considerable variations. This article surveys public management change in three Asia-Pacific countries and contends that even in countries that share similar characteristics, in this case, British post-colonial bureaucracies, there is little uniformity. We might assume that administrative change is the result of the attraction of NPM to élites who shop around the international market for ideas, but this is a gross oversimplification. However, the apparent internation alization of NPM appears to be driven by policy transfer activity. The survey of public management in these countries reveals that although the policy transfer approach is difficult to apply empirically, it is worth pursuing as it strips away the appeal of NPM. Although in each of these countries, it is difficult to argue with any conviction that policy has been transferred from another country, a number of adaptations and ideas have been utilized by bureaucratic élites. Policy transfer is a more subtle process, and more ‘context sensitive’ than we might first assume. Even where a policy developed elsewhere can be demonstrated to be successful, its transfer to another country is less than, straightforward and often it is the rhetoric, rather than the substance, that is adopted.     

REINVENTING FOREIGN AID FOR INCLUSIVE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: KUZNETS,PIKETTY AND THE GREAT POLICY REVERSAL

This survey essay reviews close to 200 papers in arguing that in order to achieve sustainable and inclusive development, foreign aid should not orient developing countries toward industrialization in the perspective of Kuznets but in the view of Piketty. Abandoning the former's view that inequality will fall with progress in industrialization and placing more emphasis on inequality in foreign aid policy will lead to more sustainable development outcomes. Inter alia: mitigate short‐term poverty, address concerns of burgeoning population growth, train recipient governments on inclusive development, fight corruption and mismanagement and avoid the shortfalls of celebrated Kuznets’ conjectures. We discuss how the essay addresses post‐2015 development challenges and provide foreign aid policy instruments with which discussed objectives can be achieved. In summary, the essay provides useful policy measures to avoid past pitfalls. ‘Output may be growing, and yet the mass of the people may be becoming poorer’ (Lewis). ‘Lewis led all developing countries to water, proverbially speaking, some African countries have so far chosen not to drink’ (Amavilah). Piketty has led all developing countries to the stream again and a challenging policy syndrome of our time is how foreign aid can help them to drink.     

Fiscal consolidation and its cross-country effects

We build a new Keynesian DSGE model consisting of two heterogeneous countries in a monetary union. We study how public debt consolidation in a country with high debt (like Italy) affects welfare in a country with solid public finances (like Germany). Our results show that debt consolidation in the high-debt country benefits the country with solid public finances over all time horizons, while, in Italy, debt consolidation is productive in the medium and long term. All this is with optimized feedback policy rules. On the other hand, fiscal consolidation hurts both countries and all the time, if it is implemented in an ad hoc way, like an increase in taxes. The least distorting fiscal mix from the point of view of both countries is the one which, during the early phase of pain, Italy cuts public consumption spending to address its debt problem and, at the same time, reduces income tax rates, while, once its debt has been reduced in the later phase, it uses the fiscal space to further cut income taxes.     

Donors and domestic politics: Political influences on foreign aid effort

The vast majority of scholarship on foreign aid looks at either the effectiveness of foreign aid or why particular countries receive aid from particular donors. This paper takes a different approach: what are the domestic sources of support for foreign aid? Specifically, how does the donor's domestic political and economic environment influence ‘aid effort’? This paper uses a time-series cross-sectional data set to analyze the influence of changes in political and economic variables. As governments become more conservative, their aid effort is likely to fall. Domestic political variables appear to influence aid effort, but only for aid to low income countries and multilaterals while aid effort to middle income countries in unaffected. This suggests that models solely emphasizing donor economic and international strategic interests as determinants of donor aid policy may be mis-specified. These results also suggest sources of aid volatility that might influence recipient growth prospects.     

Exchange rate regimes and capital mobility: issues and some lessons from central and eastern European applicant countries☆

The five most advanced central and eastern European countries that aspire to join the European Union, EMU and to adopt the euro, have pursued very dissimilar exchange rate strategies up to now. Yet, there is only one instance in which a country was unable to sustain its chosen exchange rate regime. This paper explores two keys to exchange rate sustainability and argues that failure to maintain internal policy consistency and policy credibility is decisive in forced exit. The paper then relates the findings to possible policy lessons for emerging market economies in the Western Hemisphere.     

最优关税、专利保护期和FDI——基于产品生命周期理论的模型拓展与实证分析

本文讨论在产品生命周期理论框架下的一个最优关税和专利保护期模型,研究发展中国家知识产权保护对发达国家跨国企业进行FDI决策的影响。发展中国家应使用最优关税和专利保护期的组合策略,吸引FDI并使其社会福利最大化。当考虑到产品成熟期时发展中国家的反向出口,跨国企业更不易采取FDI策略。这一结论在作者选择20家知名跨国企业在100个发展中国家投资的有关数据进行计量分析后基本得以证实。     

The demographic effects of income redistribution and accelerated economic growth revisited

The statistical basis of Winegarden's conclusions, i.e., that an egalitarian redistribution of incomes in a typical low-income country would cause a substantial increase in fertility, was examined in detail in that it casts doubt about the validity of all previous econometric studies based on international cross-sectional data. Winegarden's model is reproduced as are his findings. The reexamination of Winegarden's (1984) findings revealed 3 areas which suggest that his conclusions may require modification. In regard to family planning, Winegarden's results indicated that the introduction of a state-supported family planning program would cause a large decline in natality after about a decade. A much weaker relationship emerged when the fertility equation was recomputed using a more appropriate economic method. Further, the results were highly sensitive to changes in the threshold year used to classify countries with regard to family planning programs. It is argued that a qualitative index devised by Mauldin and Berelson (1978) provides a more reliable way to measure the effects of such programs than the binary variable Winegarden used. The use of this index fundamentally altered the findings regarding economic growth and income distribution. According to Winegarden's calculations, faster economic growth would have a pronatal impact in the more economically advanced nations yet help to reduce fertility for those countries in the early stages of development. In contrast, it was found that variations in the rate of economic growth had no discernible impact on natality. Winegarden's results suggested that an egalitarian redistribution of incomes would cause substantial increase in fertility in a typical low-income country, but it was found here that these distributional effects would be fairly modest over a wide range of incomes. Consequently, it appears that any concern about the demographic effects of greater equality in less-developed countries is not well-founded. The potential for reducing natality in the richer nations by means of income redistribution may be overstated by Winegarden's results.     

Competition in long-distance and telecommunications equipment markets: Effects of the MFJ

The Modification of Final Judgement (MJF) is now 10 years old. The MFJ was a historic change in US antitrust policy and in telecommunications policy. Pre-divestiture AT&T was divided into a single company, AT&T, which was allowed to compete in long-distance markets, telecommunications equipment markets and (with some delay) information service markets. Seven regional Bell Operating Companies (RBOCs) were permitted to provide local service and nearby long-distance service. However, the BOCs were not permitted to enter the three markets reserved for AT&T. In 1991 the Information Services restriction was eliminated for the BOCs. However, the ban on provision of (interLATA) long distance and equipment remains. The policy experiment was quite interesting since no other nation has followed the USA, despite numerous other countries ending the formerly monopoly status of their telecommunications provider. In this paper I evaluate how competitive the remaining markets reserved for AT&T, and from which the BOCS are banned, have become. I conclude that (interLATA) long-distance market for residential and small business users, by far the largest fraction of users of long distance is currently uncompetitive. AT&Ts prices are constrained by FCC regulation, not by competition. AT&T has market power and is exercising market power. For equipment markets, I find a good deal more competition. However, I conclude that the BOCs could not impede competition in long distance and that removal of the MFJ restrictions would be pro-competitive. Thus, I conclude that removal of the MFJ estrictions on the BOCs would be pro-competitive, would increase economic efficiency, and would improve consumer welfare.     

Inter-jurisdiction subsidy competition for a new production plant: What is the central government optimal policy?

This paper models inter-jurisdiction competition for foreign direct investment and optimal government policy intervention to protect the national interest. The inter-jurisdiction competition for a multinational has the potential of favouring the multinational and of becoming detrimental for the host country. The central government wants to limit such competition but it cannot tax-discriminate between different types of multinationals. We find that the central government would use tax policy to create asymmetries even when the underlying structure is symmetrical. This offers a novel explanation for the creation of ‘Special Economic Zones’ in many countries, which are well known to be aimed at the attraction of foreign direct investment.