Are Russian Wheat Exporters Able to Price Discriminate? Empirical Evidence from the Last Decade

Significant changes have taken place in the world wheat market in the last decade. Russia, a former net wheat importer, has become a leading exporter with a world market share of 11.2% in 2009. This increasing importance and the discussion about the establishment of a grain‐OPEC consisting of Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Russia has raised the issue of pricing behaviour of Russian wheat exporters. Although there are several studies on the pricing behaviour of Canadian and US wheat exporters, there is none so far for Russian wheat exporters. This study provides a quantitative analysis of the pricing behaviour of Russian wheat exporters, explicitly taking account of the export tax imposed between 2007 and 2008. We employ a pricing‐to‐market (PTM) model on quarterly Russian wheat‐export data, covering the period from 2002 to 2010 and 25 export destinations. Our findings indicate that (i) Russian wheat exporters exercised PTM in only a few importing countries over the whole time period, and (ii) PTM behaviour was more pronounced in the aftermath of the export tax period (i.e. 2008–2010) than before.     

Pricing to market behaviour of India's high value agri‐food exporters: an empirical analysis of major destination markets

The pricing behaviour of India's high value agricultural and food exporters in their major destination markets is examined using a pricing‐to‐market (PTM) model for noncompetitive and exchange rate related pricing behaviour. The analysis was undertaken in a context where India is showing high commodity concentration in agricultural trade. The econometric analysis employed is panel corrected standard errors (PCSE) estimation technique. The results indicated evidence of a greater degree of imperfect competition either through price discrimination across destinations or through imperfect exchange rate pass‐through. The analysis of exchange rate effects showed that the local currency price stabilization by the Indian exporters were more prominent than the amplification of exchange rates. The analysis of the asymmetric effects of exchange rates on export prices showed that in most cases the depreciation of Indian rupee had a greater impact than the appreciation. Moreover the results showed that the exchange rate pass‐through is sensitive to the kind of exchange rate index utilised. In our analysis we found that the commodity specific exchange rate better predicts the pricing to market behaviour in most cases.     

Pricing‐To‐Market Analysis: The Case of EU Wheat Exports

The EU is a major player in the global wheat market. This paper examines the pricing behaviour of EU wheat exporters using a pricing‐to‐market (PTM) analysis. Wheat is an exemplary product for testing PTM theories as it is widely and frequently traded, and largely unbranded. We estimate the relationship between export unit values and exchange rates using quarterly panel data for 11 EU export destinations for 2000–2013. Results show that there is a meaningful long‐run relationship between export unit values and exchange rates, but there is little evidence of differential mark‐ups between EU export markets. Belarus and Iceland are exceptions where exporters from the EU appear to exercise local currency price stabilisation.     

Residual demand measures of market power of Russian wheat exporters

Traditionally, the international wheat market has been considered a good example of a market with perfect competition. Yet, several articles provide evidence of imperfect competition and price discrimination in the wheat trade. However, these studies focused on traditional high‐quality wheat exporters such as Canada and the United States. In contrast, this article investigates whether Russian wheat exporters exercise market power in eight selected importing countries using the residual demand elasticity (RDE) model. The article makes two major contributions. First, it focuses on a nontraditional exporter, who exports mainly wheat of mediocre quality to low‐ and middle‐income countries. Second, the RDE model is estimated for the first time using a nonlinear estimator, the instrumental variable Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood estimator. This is important because the double logarithmic functional form can provide biased results in the presence of heteroskedasticity. The results indicate that Russian wheat exporters can exercise market power in only a few markets, while they are price takers in the majority of importing countries.     

Output and Price Determination in the Canadian Chicken Industry: Which Should Come First?

Bilateral bargaining between chicken producers and processing firms determined chicken prices in Ontario from 1995 to 2002. A significant reform in 2003 introduced a formula‐based live price that is a function of chicken producers' costs. The latter pricing mechanism reduces the risk faced by processing firms and producers because the chicken price is known when output decisions are made. However, the pricing formula also involves some risk in that the cost components may be far removed from actual costs when production is carried out. Expected farm prices under the two different pricing mechanisms are also not identical. The producers' and processors' expected utility of profits under each pricing mechanism is computed. The bargaining pricing mechanism generally yields higher expected utility for producers than the formula‐based price. Conversely, processing firms obtain a higher expected utility under the formula‐based pricing than under the bargaining framework. These conclusions critically hinge on the size of the producers' margin component in the formula‐based price. In that sense, the formula‐based pricing mechanism did not lessen the significance of relative bargaining strengths in establishing the distribution of welfare in the chicken industry. Des négociations bilatérales entre les producteurs de poulet et les entreprises de transformation déterminaient le prix du poulet vivant en Ontario de 1995 à 2002. Une formule de prix établie en fonction des coûts de production des producteurs de poulet fut introduite en 2003. Ce mécanisme réduit le risque auquel sont confrontés les transformateurs et les producteurs parce que le prix du poulet vivant est connu lorsque les décisions de production sont prises. Cependant, la formule de prix comporte aussi un risque dans le sens où la composante du coût dans la formule de prix peut être différente des coûts réels de production du poulet vivant. Les prix espérés du poulet vivant sont aussi différents dans les deux systèmes de prix. L'utilité espérée des profits pour les producteurs et les transformateurs de poulet est calculée dans les deux mécanismes. Le modèle fondé sur la négociation génère une utilité espérée des profits plus élevée pour les producteurs que la formule de prix. À l'inverse, les transformateurs obtiennent une utilité espérée des profits plus élevée selon la formule de prix que selon le modèle fondé sur la négociation. Ces conclusions sont étroitement liées à la taille de la marge des producteurs utilisée dans le calcul de la formule de prix. Dans ce sens, l'introduction d'un nouveau mécanisme de détermination des prix n'a pas modifié l'importance du pouvoir relatif de négociation dans la distribution du surplus économique au sein de la filière canadienne du poulet.     

Black Sea and World Wheat Market Price Integration Analysis

In 2008–10, Russia and Ukraine together exported an average of 29 million tons of wheat per year, and have become important players in the international wheat market. This research summarizes the short‐ and long‐run wheat price dynamics between Ukraine and Russia, and other major wheat exporters—the United States, European Union (EU), and Canada—from 2004 to 2010. Tests of market price co‐integration (Johansen maximum likelihood test and residual‐based tests) as well as threshold error correction techniques were performed for this purpose. The results suggest that Russian wheat prices were co‐integrated with EU and U.S. wheat prices but not with Canadian wheat prices. Ukrainian wheat prices were found to be co‐integrated with French wheat prices only. The estimated long‐run wheat price transmission elasticities were estimated to be equal to 1.04 between Russian and French (a representative country of the EU) wheat prices, 1.16 between Russian and U.S. wheat prices, and 1.05 between Ukrainian and French wheat prices. We also found the short‐term relationships between the co‐integrated series to be statistically significant. Price adjustments in all co‐integrated prices were found to be symmetric.     

FTA,Exchange rate pass‐through and export price behavior – Lessons from the Australian dairy sector

The growing number of bilateral and regional free trade agreements (FTAs) alongside exchange rate volatility has raised a question on whether these affect exporters’ pricing behaviors, hence competitiveness. This study contributes to this topic by examining Australian dairy export price behavior across eight major markets taking into account the extent of pass‐through of exchange rate and tariff as well as FTAs between Australia and its trading partners. Commodity‐level dairy trade data from 1996 to 2016 and the feasible generalized least squares methods are employed. The study finds incomplete pass‐through at the industry level. The dairy export prices decrease by 1.7% if Australian dollar depreciates by 10%, while 10% tariff reduction is associated with 0.7% export price cut. Results at the commodity level show different pricing behaviors across destination and commodity markets. Overall, apart from the tariff effects, there is minimal evidence of the impacts of FTAs on dairy export prices.     

Policy reform and farmers' wheat allocation in rural China: a case study*

Market‐oriented policy reforms often have important effects on farm‐level grain production and utilisation decisions in developing countries. China's grain farmers are of particular interest because of China's importance in world grain markets and because of China's recent major agricultural policy advances and retrenchments. An empirical evaluation of market liberalisation among farmers located in two provinces in China on farm‐level wheat consumption, market sales and on‐farm storage during 1994 is presented. The results indicate that policymakers should account for such changes in farm household behaviour in designing and assessing the consequence of market liberalisation programs for agricultural sectors in developing countries.     

Post–Uruguay Round price linkages between developed and developing countries: the case of rice and wheat markets

The Uruguay Round Agreement on agriculture attempted to lower distortions in global agricultural markets. However, the significant fall in commodity prices in the late 1990s may have reduced the incentives for both developed and developing countries to better integrate into world markets. This study analyzes price linkages and adjustment between developed and developing countries during the post–Uruguay Round period. Prices of two key commodities, long‐grain rice and medium‐hard wheat, are assembled for major exporters and producers. Results of multivariate cointegration analysis suggest partial market integration between developed and developing countries in the post–Uruguay Round period. Developed countries are found to be price leaders in these two markets, and in most cases, changes in their prices have relatively large impacts on those of the developing countries. Developing countries (e.g., Vietnam and Argentina) have faced considerable price adjustment due to changes in the developed countries' prices.     

ANALYSIS OF EXPORT DEMAND FOR CANADIAN WHEAT

The objectives of this study are to identify the main factors affecting foreign countries' imports of wheat, and to interpret the implications for Candian wheat export policy. Analyses have been made if import demands of twelve countries, including four which have purchased approximately 60 percent of Canadian wheat exports during the last five years. The study focuses on methods of estimating the price elasticity of demand in the purchase of wheat by individual countries. Three models were applied: the direct, the substitution, and the market share model. The substitution model performed best and was judged to have the greatest potential for further research. Significant negative price elasticities considerably greater than unity (in absolute terms) were found for several countries, including some major importers. This suggests that there are large potential gains obtainable for Canada by decreasing price. However, unless the Wheat Board adopts multiple pricing, these gains would be at least partly offset by losses in markets which appear to be much less responsive to price. L'objectif de cette étude est ?identifier les principaux facteurs qui affectent les importations de blé aux pays étrangers et ?évaluer la portée de ses facteurs sur la politique canadienne ?exportalion du blé. On a analysé les demandes ?importation de 12 pays, dont quatre ont acheté prés de 60 pourcent des exportations canadiennes de blé au cours des cinq dernières années. Cette etude se concentre sur les méthodes ?estimation de I‘élasticite de demande des pays individuels. On a utilise trois modèles dit: “direct”, “substitution”, et “le portage du marché.” Le modèle “substitution” donna les meilleurs résultats et semble le plus prometteur pour de telles recherches dans I'avenir. Des élasticites négatives et significatives de prix, plus grand que ?unité (en termes absolus) ont été obtenues pour plusieurs pays incluant quelques-uns des plus gros importateurs. Ceci nous laisse croire qu'il y aurait des possibilityée de gains accrues si le Canada réduisait ses prix. Cependant, à moins que la Commission Canadienne du Blué n'adopte une systeme de prix différentiels, ces gains seraient au moins particllemcnt réduits par des pcrtes dans ?autres marchés qui paraissent être moins sensibles aux changements des prix.     

Effects of pricing policy on seasonal storage of wheat in Pakistan

Most studies of stockholding in less developed countries have concentrated on public, interannual stocks. A recent change in Pakistan government policy for the pricing of wheat highlights the need to examine seasonal storage issues, considering explicitly the effects of policy on the behavior of private agents who hold seasonal stocks of grain. Using H. Working's supply of storage theory and a simple monthly model, implications of the policy change for fiscal cost, private storage, and government procurement are explored. Costs of the policy could be reduced dramatically by increasing marginally the gap between the procurement and release price. Expected cost to the consumer of a wider gap would be no larger than under the previous policy.     

Strategic pricing in a differentiated product oligopoly model: fluid milk in Boston

In an imperfectly competitive industry, differentiated products compete with each other with price rather than quantity as the strategic variable. Several previous studies have employed a generalized Nash–Bertrand model: Liang (1989) , Cotterill (1994) , Cotterill et al. (2000) , and Kinoshita et al. (2002) ; however, only Liang has explored the theoretical foundations of that model. This article generalizes the Liang two‐good model to three goods. A surprising and important result follows. Price‐conjectural variations do not exist in models with three or more goods. Price‐reaction functions, however, exist in multiple‐good models. We estimate them jointly with a brand‐level demand system to evaluate the total impact of a brand manager's price change on own quantity. In a differentiated product market, this is a useful addition to a partial demand elasticity approach, because a change in one brand's price typically engenders a price reaction by other brands that affects own quantity via substantial cross‐price elasticities among substitutes. Strategic pricing in the Boston fluid milk market was also influenced by the existence of a raw milk price support program, the Northeast Dairy Compact. We find that the advent of the Compact was a focal point event that crystallized a shift away from Nash–Bertrand to more cooperative pricing. If the downstream market is not competitive, one needs to consider strategic price reactions when designing and evaluating agricultural price programs.     

Measuring Market Power for Food Retail Activities: French Evidence

In this paper we develop and estimate an empirical model of pricing behaviour for food retail firms in both a quantity‐setting oligopoly engaged in the joint production of demand‐related final goods and a quantity‐setting oligopsony for supply‐unrelated wholesale goods. The procedure consists of estimating an inverse demand system for the final goods, single supply functions for the wholesale goods and the retail industry first‐order profit‐maximisation conditions, from which an estimate of the degree of imperfect competition and of oligopoly‐oligopsony power for the different commodities can be retrieved. The model is applied to the French food retail industry and three commodities are distinguished: dairy products, meat products and other food products. We strongly reject the hypothesis that French food retail firms behave competitively, and more than 20 and 17 per cent of the wholesale‐to‐retail price margins for dairy products and meat products, respectively, can be attributed to oligopoly‐oligopsony distortions.     

Price floors and technical inefficiency in India's sugar processing industry

In India, cane is processed into sugar by cooperatives, public enterprises, and private (for‐profit) firms. The Indian government sets a unique floor price for each processor that is increasing in the firm's effectiveness in converting cane into sugar. The floor price binds for public and private firms but not for cooperatives, which rebate profits to members. We argue that this price floor policy creates a disincentive for private and public firms to be technically efficient in converting cane to sugar. In support of this hypothesis an analysis of 593 Indian sugar factories from 1992 to 2007 reveals statistically significant differences in technical efficiency, with cooperatives being the most efficient and public firms least efficient. We estimate welfare losses due to the technical inefficiency attributable to the price‐floor policy and argue that it can be eliminated by enacting policy to base price floors upon quality of the cane input received by a factory.     

The Contingent Tariff of the Special Safeguard Mechanism: What Happens When Markets are Imperfectly Competitive?

Contingent tariffs for agri‐food commodities have been proposed as a Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM) in the Doha Round negotiations by the G33 group of countries as an instrument to control downward spikes in their border prices and/or surges of imports. The objective is to safeguard the livelihood security of farm households in poor countries. To date, most analysis of such tariffs uses stochastic partial equilibrium models with perfect competition. Yet in many markets for such commodities, imperfectly competitive market intermediaries play an important role in determining producers' prices, as do state trading enterprises (STEs). A stochastic partial equilibrium model of a typical importing country situation is specified in which there are either imperfectly competitive domestic intermediaries with a contingent tariff or an STE. The role of these intermediaries in influencing price behaviour and livelihood security in the presence of contingent tariffs alters the conclusion based on models of perfect competition. Using Monte‐Carlo simulation, it is shown that the efficacy of a contingent tariff is substantially reduced as the number of firms declines because increasingly they absorb the tariff, and the procurement price and producer surplus do not increase to the extent that they do under perfect competition.     

Supermarket Promotions and Food Prices: A Note

Using a sample comprising nearly 250,000 weekly prices from the largest seven UK supermarket chains, this note investigates two pricing practices that have attracted public interest: the tendency for promotions to ‘disguise’ rises in non‐sale prices and the inflation of prices prior to sales which ‘exaggerate’ the discount. Analysing price dynamics before and after periods of promotional discounting results show post‐sale prices are typically lower than pre‐sale prices, contrary to the disguise hypothesis. We do, however, find evidence of exaggeration of the discount, which may potentially explain why prices fall after discounts, although the evidence is not sufficiently widespread for this to be the sole cause. Results parallel the competition authority's view of supermarket promotions and point to the useful contribution that retail price microdata might play in keeping prices in check in countries where highly concentrated retail sectors raise similar concerns.     

Dragon Head Enterprises and the State of Agribusiness in China

This paper examines the political trajectory of agribusiness firms called ‘dragon head enterprises’ in China's ongoing agri‐food transformations. It starts from the premise that state and private elites in China are working together to consolidate a robust domestic agribusiness sector, as both an arena for national‐level rural and economic development, and a new frontier for access to resources and markets abroad. Through analyses of policy documents, market share data and ethnographic materials, I explore the organization and operation of dragon heads in the pork sector. My findings reveal that agribusiness development in China's pork sector is largely domestic, has a mixed state–private form and tends to marginalize the foreign‐based TNCs that have been the most powerful actors in the global agri‐food system to date. I argue that China is not only a destination for ‘external’ transnational capital, but also a site of agribusiness development in its own right. This has important implications for analysing capitalist transformations and for engaging global agri‐food politics.     

A Reexamination of Price Dynamics in the International Wheat Market

This paper examines price relationships in the international wheat market for the years 1981–93 using a cointegration and error correction approach. Price series are found to be first-differenced stationary and cointegrated. Our results provide evidence that the United States, Australia, the European Union and Argentina react to Canada's pricing decisions, whereas Canada does not respond to any other price changes except Australia's. Similarly, the United States also plays a strong role in the pricing of other exporters (except Canada) and its pricing decision is affected by changes in Canadian and Australian prices. The remaining exporters such as the European Union and Argentina respond to the U.S. and Canadian price changes but do not have any influence on other prices. Overall, our results suggest that there is no distinct price leader in the international wheat market. Nous examinons les rapports deprixjouantsur le marché international du blé durant la période 1981–1993, suivant une démarche de co-intégration et de correction des erreurs. Nous avons constaté et vérifié que les séries de prix se révélent stationnaires lorsqu‘exprimées en première différence et qu‘elles sont cointégrées. Nos observations démontrent que les États-Unis, I'Australie, I'Union européenne et I'Argentine réagissent aux décisions de tariflcation prises au Canada et que de son côté, le Canada ne réagit à aucun autre changement du régime de tarification sauf à celui de I'Australie. De même, les États-Unis jouent également un rôle important dans la tarification des autres exportateurs (le Canada excepté) et ses décisions de tarification sont sensibles aux changements affectant les prix canadiens et australiens. Le reste des exportateurs, notamment I'Union européenne et I'Argentine, sont en mesure de réagir aux changements des prix appliqués aux États- Unis et au Canada, mais Us n‘ont aucune influence sur la tarification des autres exportateurs. Toutes ces observations nous amènent à conclure qu'il n'y a pas vraiment de leader dans l'établissement des prix du blé sur le marché international.     

Exploring Farm Investment Behaviour in Transition: The Case of Russian Agriculture

This paper analyses the investment behaviour of Russian farms during the period of economic stabilisation that followed Russia’s financial crisis of 1998, and is the first to apply the error‐correction investment model to describe farms’ investment behaviour in the transitional context. Additionally, the paper employs the error‐correction and the adjustment‐cost model to test for differences in the investment behaviour between various farm categories. The results show that in general Russian farms exhibited an error‐correcting behaviour in the period under investigation. From 1999 to 2005 the output–capital gap was closed by an average rate of 10% per year. Estimates of the adjustment‐cost model show that Russian farm investments are very sensitive to the sales–capital ratio, suggesting that Russian farms exhibit increasing returns to scale and positive expectations about future revenues. Yet, such farm characteristics as ownership structure, access to input markets and also regional specifics were found to be decisive for farm investment not only in the short but long term too. Finally, the results show that the adjustment‐cost model is adequate for the evaluation of differences in short‐term investment behaviour, whereas it is noticeably less powerful for investigating differences in the farms’ long‐term investment behaviour.     

Pricing-to-Market: Simple Theoretical Insights, Formidable Econometric Challenges

Pricing‐to‐market (PTM) arises when firms endowed with market power alter their pricing decisions in response to exchange rate changes. I argue that the empirical models commonly used in the literature are not properly specified, especially the ones pertaining to agri‐food trade. The nature of the relation between the export price and the exchange rate can be influenced by the time‐series properties of the data, by the choice of currency to be used for invoicing, by menu costs which posit that it is costly for firms to change prices, and by the production technology of the products traded. With menu costs, only large enough exchange rate changes can trigger systematic changes in export prices. The empirical implication is to test for threshold effects. Constant return to scale is analytically and empirically convenient, as it is a necessary assumption to support the typical single‐equation PTM specification. When goods are produced under increasing returns, there are also domestic PTM effects, and a system of equations is required to properly analyze the impacts of the exchange rate on pricing decisions at home and abroad. Jointness in production, so prevalent in the agri‐food sector, can support so‐called perverse PTM effects, even when firms maximize profits and there are no switching costs. Il y a tarification en fonction du marché (TFM) quand des entreprises exerçant une influence sur le marché modifient leurs prix d'après les fluctuations du cours du change. L'auteur soutient que les modèles empiriques couramment mentionés dans les textes ne sont pas assez bien spécifiés, en particulier ceux se rapportant au secteur agroalimentaire. La relation entre les prix d'exportation et la devise peut subir diverses influences, en l'occurrence celle des propriétés des données chronologiques, celle de la devise employée pour la facturation, celle des coûts d'ajustement, qui supposent que modifier les prix est une opération onéreuse pour l'entreprise, et celle des technologies de fabrication propres aux produits dont on fait le négoce. Avec les coǔts d'ajustement, seul un taux de change assez élevé enclenchera la modification systématique des prix d'exportation. L'implication empirique est qu'il faut vérifier les effets de seuil. Des rendements d'échelle constants s'avèrent commodes sur les plans analytique et empirique, et demeurent une hypothèse indispensable avec les spécifications typiques de la TFM à une équation. Quand le rendement s'accroît avec la production cependant, la TFM influe aussi sur le marché intérieur et l'on a besoin d'un jeu d'équations pour analyser correctement l'impact du taux de change sur les prix au pays et à l'étranger. Le regroupement des productions, si fréquent dans le secteur agroalimentaire, peut conforter les prétendus effets pervers de la TFM même quand les enterprises maximisent leurs bénéfices et le changement de fournisseur n'entraîne aucun frais.