到2050年全球经济和能源变化:可能的情景和主要趋势

对能源发展的分析显示,周期为40年左右的经济危机导致世界能源发展轨迹发生改变:能源增长率下降、能源结构变化和用能品质提高。根据对能源领域所作的追溯性动态分析,对未来世界能源发展构建出三种情景——惯性的、停滞的和创新的。分析认为,2010-2030年世界能源发展将在很大程度上保持目前的惯性,国家的作用将进一步增强。预计2030年后将出现能源危机,随之而来的是能源行业在技术、组织结构、管理方式以及发展方向上发生巨变。世界能源将产生由低价值能源向高价值能源发展的质的变化。在创新情景下,通过向技术含量更高的能源的转换,"有效"能源的使用将迅速增加。     

Global competition and EEC policy in telecommunications: An Italian perspective

Within the framework of increasing US and Japanese competition, an interpretation is given of the future development lines of European telecommunications. Europe is lagging behind in this sector; this is explained in terms of the subdivision of services at the national level and the fragmentation of industrial areas within the respective countries. The minimum basis for recovery should be the establishment of a common European base in the telecommunications sector. A European scenario is proposed with particular attention devoted to the Italian problems in restructuring and development.     

中央电力企业“十二五”发展定位和重点研究

“十二五”是我国经济社会发展的重要战略机遇期,经济和能源发展将进入新的时期。中央电力企业是关系国计民生的重要行业。在新环境下,中央电力企业将明确发展定位,进一步发挥在行业发展中的控制力、带动力和影响力。通过深入分析中央电力企业现状及“十二五”面临的发展环境,研究提出了中央电力企业“十二五”发展定位和重点的意见。     

碳税对我国电力结构演变的影响--基于CSGM模型的模拟

电力部门的脱碳化发展是整个能源系统低碳化发展的重要内容。基于国内温室气体限排减排趋势日益明显,通过构建可计算一般均衡的CSGM模型,研究电力部门未来能源消耗与排放情景,分析了征收碳税以及限排条件下电力结构的变化趋势。情景方案模拟显示,征收碳税对电力部门从化石能源向非化石能源的结构演变具有较大的推动作用。     

油库区火灾应急过程风险因素-事故情景结构方程模型研究

为了探讨油库区火灾应急过程中风险因素与事故情景间的量化作用关系，揭示事故发展演化的基本规律，通过对近50年来国内外240例油库区典型火灾爆炸事故的统计分析，从人-物-环境-管理4个方面，建立了二者间的结构方程模型。结果表明：各因素与情景间影响关系显著，其中人的因素影响系数最大，为0.46，且对火灾扩大的情景影响更大，而“误判断”这一具体因素事件最易发生。所构建的结构方程模型能较清晰地量化应急过程风险因素与情景间的作用关系，可为揭示事故发生发展的作用机理提供一定的科学依据，同时为油库区火灾事故应急安全管理提供参考。     

Broadband access in the EU: An assessment of future economic benefits

This paper evaluates the net economic benefits that would derive from the implementation of the broadband infrastructure deployment targets by 2020 as entailed by the Digital Agenda for Europe Initiative set forth by the European Commission. As a first step, we estimate the returns from broadband infrastructure for the period 2005–2011, differentiating the impact of broadband by levels of adoption and speed while accounting for reverse causality and extensive heterogeneity. In the second step, the cost of broadband roll-out is assessed under different assumptions of technical performance and contrasted with the forecasted benefits that derive from increased broadband coverage. We find that in the base case scenario the overall future benefits outweigh the investment costs for the European Union as a whole for the highest performance technologies. This holds also for the majority of member states individually. We further extrapolate the returns by country under different scenarios of implementation. In most cases the benefits are substantially well above the costs. Private sector is reluctant to invest, as investors in broadband infrastructure only can partially appropriate benefits. This would suggest a rationale for the public sector to subsidize build-out of high speed broadband infrastructure.     

英国低碳能源转型:战略、情景、政策与启示

总结英国上一轮能源转型的清洁化、多元化、市场化特点及影响,简要阐述其面向"2050碳中和"目标的立法,引用英国国家电网公司发布的"未来能源情景(2019)",分析低碳转型目标下未来英国能源系统"可信"的演变方式。在情景规划的基础上,以未来英国增长潜力最大的海上风能为例,着重分析英国本轮能源市场改革中如何通过政策干预与市场竞争,实现可再生能源的快速发展以及低碳化能源系统与市场的构建。对中国政府和企业制定低碳发展战略的启示包括:应对气候变化和面向低碳能源的立法是实现转型的基本保障;能源低碳化转型路径不唯一,应充分结合本国资源与产业特点制定能源政策;政策扶持结合市场竞争的模式可以加快新能源产业发展,降低转型成本;融入区域统一能源市场,低碳转型中强化多重能源战略目标的实现。     

An integrated model for analyzing the development of the 4G telecommunications market in Taiwan

Previous studies of development trends in the telecommunications industry have estimated market potential but have seldom integrated analyses of customer preferences and macro-environmental factors (political, economic, social, and technological analyses). In order to more accurately analyze 4G technological trends and market penetration and provide implications for businesses and policymakers, we use conjoint analysis to analyze customers' preferences for telecommunications technology and integrate the results with data from scenario analysis and the Delphi method to address possible scenarios for the development of 2G, 3G, Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX), and long-term evolution (LTE) in Taiwan. We then use the innovation diffusion model to forecast the sales volume for these four technologies in Taiwan over the next 10 years. Finally, we provide suggestions for policymaking and strategic actions for 4G stakeholders.     

天然气开启能源新时代——第25届世界天然气大会综述

2012年6月4-8日,第25届世界天然气大会在马来西亚首都吉隆坡举行,会议以“天然气:可持续发展的未来全球能源增长点”为主题,交流总结了2009-2012年以来天然气领域的发展现状和未来趋势.认为天然气逐步成为一次能源结构中不可替代的清洁能源;非常规天然气开发将改变世界天然气供需格局,成为推动天然气发展的重要因素;未来20年LNG需求将增加一倍多,北美LNG出口将影响世界贸易格局;全球天然气价格将以区域性价格体系为主,近期难以形成统一气价;天然气消费需求的增长及能源消费结构的调整加大了对储气库的需求;俄罗斯推行天然气出口新策略,纳布科管道项目遏阻;人力资源竞争激烈,人才是天然气工业可持续发展的重要驱动力 中国的天然气发展势头迅猛,市场空间广阔,将为世界天然气市场的发展注入新的活力.     

The development of and prospects for organic farming in the UK

The organic sector in the UK is booming with the largest ever wave of farm conversions underway. Consumer demand is currently growing faster than supply. The evidence regarding the factors that have been critical, now and in the past, in causing producers to establish organic systems is reviewed. This review draws on the authors’ own work as well as that of other researchers in Europe and the USA. In the second part of the paper we report on a recent study of the factors that prompt organic producers to abandon registered organic production. This analysis is based on a survey of producers, formerly registered with the Soil Association, who have left the scheme since 1990. Finally, the paper considers the current policy regime with respect to organic farming, the scope for the continued growth of the sector and the debate regarding the design of future policy.     

US agricultural research politics: Utopians,utilitarians, copians

Political support for US public agricultural research institutions has come from first users within the industry and from those interested in the long-run consequences of improved agricultural technology. Public funding for agricultural research was initially supported by ‘utopians’, who envisioned technology development as a route to food abundance and reduced labour. Recently, ‘dystopian’ groups have urged reform in the development process and have suggested alternative scenarios for coping with food needs in the twenty-first century. Major contemporary support comes from first users, including regional and commodity producer groups, and also from innovative farmers. These ‘utilitarians’ have also produced a scenario for coping with future food needs. Unsuccessful efforts have been made to reconcile the research agendas of these contrasting scenarios.     

新加坡对华直接投资与双边产业内贸易关系的实证研究

本文概述了新加坡对华直接投资和双边产业内贸易的现状,重点利用计量模型分析国际直接投资与产业内贸易的相关性,论证了新加坡企业对华直接投资与双边产业内贸易存在着正相关关系,得出两个重要结论:新加坡在中国的直接投资诱发并扩大双边的产业内贸易、垂直一体化直接投资是现阶段中国与新加坡产业内贸易发展的重要动力。最后,在上述研究的基础上提出中国更好地吸引和利用外商投资、提高产业内贸易水平的政策建议。     

Organic or conventional? Optimal dairy farming technology under the EU milk quota system and organic subsidies

This paper assesses the competitiveness of organic and conventional dairy farms under different milk market and organic farming policy scenarios. We use a DEA-based model to estimate for each policy scenario the sample farms’ profit potential in both technologies. The model enables identification of a farm’s optimal technology based on its input–output observations. The empirical analysis is based on the annual accounts of 1300 Bavarian dairy farms. Results indicate that approximately 69% (78%) of the organic (conventional) farms have chosen their optimal farming system. The remaining organic (conventional) farmers could increase their profit on average by roughly 6% (10%) by switching to the other technology. Abolishment of the EU milk quota results in a considerable decline in the number of sample farms for which organic farming is the optimal technology, suggesting that, ceteris paribus, organic dairy farms may lose competitive advantage with the deregulation of the EU’s milk market regime in 2015. Organic maintenance payments more than double the number of farms with a higher earning potential in organic farming, but their effectiveness could decline when the milk quota is abolished.     

Competition and regulation in China's 3G/4G mobile communications industry—Institutions,governance, and telecom SOEs

When it comes to the analysis of the intrinsic mechanism of market behaviors and hence competition development and regulatory imperatives in the Chinese telecommunications industry, currently there is no consistent pattern offered in the literature. In China's emergent 3G/4G era, market behaviors can be affected by various institutional factors, along with various forms of informal forces, which may translate into different implications for competition regulation. Based on extensive archival research and interview, this current study aims to bridge the gap by following an interpretive approach. An input–output model was substantiated for pattern-matching in the Chinese context base on the postulation of a series of propositions and hence Industry-Gray-Box. Accordingly, two categories of market behaviors, that is, market-driven vs. institutions-driven, were arguably delineated as being underpinning the competition development. Policy implications and future reform imperatives were discussed. This study may advance knowledge in terms of: (1) the establishment of a relatively consistent pattern for mapping the landscape of China's communications industry; (2) the substantiation of the inner working mechanism of China's SOE system in the telecommunications sector; and (3) original first attempt in identifying different roles of telecom SOEs and the governing forces that affect them. The paper also offers extensive and cohesive insights on China's formal and informal institutional environment in general and for telecommunications in particular. Measurements developed in this study may serve as basis for future study.     

Optimierte Integration der Elektromobilität in das Stromversorgungssystem bei hohen Anteilen erneuerbarer Energien

Electric mobility will play a key role for the transformation of the energy supply in Germany [the “Energiewende”]. A successful market development of plug-in hybrids and battery electric vehicles and a full fleet penetration in the long-term are the most efficient and effective measure for integrating large amounts of renewable energy into the transport sector and for reaching the efficiency targets. These new electricity consumers in the supply system will cause additional electricity loads strongly dependent on the mobility needs of the vehicle users. A controlled battery charging is able to avoid new peak demands and to increase the efficiency of the power generation system by using excess power. By scenario analysis, the German Aerospace Center (DLR) in cooperation with the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE) and the Institute for High Voltage Technology of the RWTH Aachen investigated a possible successful development path of electric mobility in Germany and its integration into and interaction with the future power supply system. From both perspectives—the one of the total supply system as well as the other of local distribution grids—the results show promising potentials but also limits.     

Decision‐making in the pharmaceutical industry: analysis of entrepreneurial risk and attitude using uncertain information

The main purpose of this study was to investigate judgments made by employees from the pharmaceutical industry and allied health‐care sectors in a set of four different drug discovery and development cases derived from real scenarios. Each case study related to go/no‐go decisions taken from various steps in drug discovery through preclinical and clinical development (investigational new drug) on to market introduction (new drug application) and treatment of the target population. Using a web‐based questionnaire, 52 respondents made five sets of judgment within each drug case whether to continue or halt further project development. For each case, additional details of the developmental scenario were disclosed to the respondent after completion of each judgment response. We also assessed to what extent the individual judgments given by the respondents were influenced by work experience and functional role, education, or their perceived entrepreneurial character. Our study demonstrates that health‐care employees differ substantially in their individual intuitive judgments of benefit and risk in go/no‐go decisions during the drug discovery and development process. This lack of coherence and wide variability with respect to the drug development cases selected may reflect judgment in the real world. Such judgments are usually taken from incomplete information, and individual decision‐making rules vary substantially between experts in the field. Further knowledge about this inherent human functional judgment variability may be helpful to form a better understanding of individual decision‐making in relation to inherent uncertainties. Additional research may also clarify how personal experience within drug discovery and development influences judgment and help to optimize decision outcomes in the drug development sector. Importantly, a deeper insight of the fundamentals and rules that shape individual and group decision‐making of everyday drug discovery and development may help to optimize the decision processes in the pharmaceutical industry.     

The role of consumer purchase and post-purchase decision-making in sustainable seafood consumption. A Spanish case study using carbon footprinting

Sustainable consumption in the food sector is a desirable goal which is often difficult to achieve depending as it does on the interaction of a broad set of factors, such as market prices or consumer preferences. In the current study, a distinction has been made between pre-purchase consumer decision-making, on the one hand, and purchase and post-purchase consumer decision-making, on the other. Purchase and post-purchase decisions are those that affect their actions directly. These include vehicle selection to purchase the products, shelf-time in the household or the cooking method employed. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the environmental profile in terms of carbon footprint (CF), of a range of scenarios with varying direct environmental decisions performed by consumers. More specifically, the CF of an iconic frozen seafood product in Spain (one package of frozen fish sticks of Patagonian grenadier) was modeled for a total of 24 scenarios of fish sticks consumption. Results showed a high variance in environmental impacts depending on the scenario chosen, proving the high variability in CF that the consumption of frozen seafood can show depending on consumer choices or needs. Additionally, results showed the relative importance of the consumption stage within the entire supply chain in terms of GHG emissions. Hence, important reductions may be achieved in the diet of an individual merely by improving the behavioral traits when purchasing and consuming food products. Consequently, consumers, if given the correct environmental guidelines through awareness campaigns, can play an active and relevant role in the reduction of the environmental profile of seafood products through behavioral modifications when purchasing and consuming them.     

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS IN THE MAINTENANCE,REPAIR, AND OVERHAUL INDUSTRY: AN OPTIONS APPROACH

This paper presents a practical case application of the real options framework to a multi-stage investment in the aerospace maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) industry. With the deregulated commercial airline industry and military procurement reform, the $44 billion MRO sector must implement tools to remain strategically poised. In this case study, the MRO participant values a multi-stage irreversible expenditure in maintenance equipment and processes under air travel demand uncertainty using a real options analysis. The investment scenario is viewed from a delay, growth, and compound options framework, and an appropriate sensitivity analysis is performed. The main contribution of this paper is the detailed real option framing, valuation, and discussion that may be used as an illustration for industry practitioners or classroom instruction.     

Aligning technology,business and regulatory scenarios for cognitive radio

The amount of wireless and mobile applications and devices is rapidly growing. This exponential growth might be hindered by a scarcity of suitable radio spectrum, a necessary but limited natural resource required for all wireless communications. Spectrum scarcity does not only slow down data growth, but may also disrupt existing communications. Cognitive radio may provide a solution to these issues, but although the concept seems promising, few products making use of CR have been brought to the market. This is due to significant uncertainties surrounding the appropriate economic scenario for CR, the regulatory framework and the technology enablers needed for such CR scenario. As business, regulatory and technical constraints are largely co-determined by each other, this paper proposes to align them, paving the road for the implementation of specific economic scenarios with appropriate regulation. First, from the business perspective, a taxonomy of possible economic scenarios for CR is proposed. Second, for each scenario a number of regulatory requirements – based on a European context – and characteristics are given. In doing so, it is argued that the economic scenarios are inherently distinct so that CR regulation should be customized for the type of scenario envisaged. Third, from the technology perspective, this article reviews the possible CR enablers, showing that spectrum sensing, CPC and geolocation database all have their strengths and weaknesses, and receive varying support from business and regulators. Based on the analysis it can be concluded that, although the introduction of CR does not seem problematic for the unlicensed scenario and the flexible operator scenario, more complex measures are required to enable CR to contribute to the implementation of spectrum pool—and spectrum market scenarios. It can also be concluded that, out of the three proposed alternatives, the geolocation database is the most likely candidate to be used for CR purposes. However, although this database is a clear favorite for applications within the TV White Spaces, spectrum sensing should not be discarded as a potential CR enabler for highly sensitive applications in high-density radio environments.