Stock Market Efficiency and Economic Efficiency: Is There a Connection?

In a capitalist economy, prices serve to equilibrate supply and demand for goods and services, continually changing to reallocate resources to their most efficient uses. However, secondary stock market prices, often viewed as the most “informationally efficient” prices in the economy, have no direct role in the allocation of equity capital since managers have discretion in determining the level of investment. What is the link between stock price informational efficiency and economic efficiency? We present a model of the stock market in which: (i) managers have discretion in making investments and must be given the right incentives; and (ii) stock market traders may have important information that managers do not have about the value of prospective investment opportunities. In equilibrium, information in stock prices will guide investment decisions because managers will be compensated based on informative stock prices in the future. The stock market indirectly guides investment by transferring two kinds of information: information about investment opportunities and information about managers' past decisions. However, because this role is only indirect, the link between price efficiency and economic efficiency is tenuous. We show that stock price efficiency is not sufficient for economic efficiency by showing that the model may have another equilibrium in which prices are strong-form efficient, but investment decisions are suboptimal. We also suggest that stock market efficiency is not necessary for investment efficiency by considering a banking system that can serve as an alternative institution for the efficient allocation of investment resources.     

Is Debt Relief Efficient?

When developing countries announce debt relief agreements under the Brady Plan, their stock markets appreciate by an average of 60% in real dollar terms—a $42 billion increase in shareholder value. There is no significant stock market increase for a control group of countries that do not sign Brady agreements. The stock market appreciations successfully forecast higher future resource transfers, investment, and growth. Since the market capitalization of U.S. commercial banks with developing country loan exposure also rises—by $13 billion—the results suggest that both borrower and lenders can benefit from debt relief when the borrower suffers from debt overhang.     

Putty-clay technology and stock market volatility

Firms' first-order conditions imply that stock returns equal investment returns from the production technology. Much applied work uses the adjustment cost technology, which implies that the realized return is high when the investment-capital ratio is high. This paper derives, for an arbitrary stochastic discount factor, the investment return implied by the putty-clay technology. The combination of capital heterogeneity and irreversibility creates a novel channel for return volatility. The investment return is high when the ratio of investment to gross job creation is low. Empirically, the putty-clay feature helps account for U.S. stock market data.     

DOES THE OCTOBER 1987 CRASH STRENGTHEN THE CO-MOVEMENTS AMONG NATIONAL STOCK MARKETS?

This study examines the effect of the October 1987 crash on the co-movements among national stock markets. Interrelationships among the price movements in different national stock markets are analyzed using correlation and exploratory factor analysis. The data on weekly returns of 12 national stock market indices over the period from August 1984 to December 1990 are used in both local-currency and U.S. dollar terms for the analysis. This study finds that national stock markets became more interrelated after the crash, and the strengthening co-movements among national stock markets continued for a longer period after the crash. In addition, it is shown that the co-movements among national stock markets were stronger when the U. S. stock market was more volatile. These results imply that after investors experienced the October crash, they tend to give more weight to international factors in making investment decisions after the crash than before.     

Institutional investors: Arbitrageurs or rational trend chasers

This paper studies the relationship between institutional investor holdings and stock misvaluation in the U.S. between 1980 and 2010. I find that institutional investors overweigh overvalued and underweigh undervalued stocks in their portfolio, taking the market portfolio as a benchmark. Cross-sectionally, institutional investors hold more overvalued stocks than undervalued stocks. The time-series studies also show that institutional ownership of overvalued portfolios increases as the portfolios' degree of overvaluation. As an investment strategy, institutional investors' ride of stock misvaluation is neither driven by the fund flows from individual investors into institutions, nor industry-specific. Consistent with the agency problem explanation, investment companies and independent investment advisors have a higher tendency to ride stock misvaluation than other institutions. There is weak evidence that institutional investors make a profit by riding stock misvaluation. My findings challenge the models that view individual investors as noise traders and disregard the role of institutional investors in stock market misvaluation.     

Does the stock market affect firm investment in China? A price informativeness perspective

This paper investigates the empirical relationship between firm-level investment and the stock market in China from a price informativeness perspective. We find that firm investment does not significantly respond to the stock market valuation, because stock prices contain very little extra information about the future operating performance of firms. This finding is further supported by the relative investment response test and the relative price information content test based on the informativeness proxy of price non-synchronicity combined with firm information transparency.     

U.S. Equity Investment in Emerging Stock Markets

This article examines U.S. equity flows to emerging stock marketsfrom 1978 to 1991 and draws three main conclusions. First, despitethe recent increase in U.S. equity investment in emerging stockmarkets, the U.S. portfolio remains strongly biased toward domesticequities. Second, of the fraction of the U.S. portfolio thatis allocated to foreign equity investment, the share investedin emerging stock markets is roughly proportional to the shareof the emerging stock markets in the global market capitalizationvalue. Third, the volatility of U.S. transactions in emerging-marketequities is higher than in other foreign equities. The normalizedvolatility of U.S. transactions appears to be falling over time,however, and we find no relation between the volume of U.S.transactions in foreign equity and local turnover rates or volatilityof stock returns.     

Fundamentals,Misvaluation, and Business Investment

Does stock market misvaluation affect business fixed investment? To answer this question, we provide evidence based on U.S. firm‐level panel data. We examine the orthogonality conditions for the investment Q and Euler equations, and our qualitative tests reject the null hypothesis that investment is unaffected by misvaluation (this result is not driven exclusively by the late 1990s). To measure the quantitative effects on investment, we introduce a measure of misvaluation into standard investment equations. Our estimates imply that a one‐standard‐deviation increase in misvaluation increases investment between 20% and 60% relative to the mean level of investment in the sample.     

Stock Market Valuation,Foreign Investment,and Cross-Country Arbitrage

This study investigates the role of stock market valuation and cross-country arbitrage in shaping foreign direct and indirect investments, contingent upon a country's stage of development. This paper is built upon the mispricing-driven foreign investment hypotheses developed by Baker, Foley, and Wurgler (2009). Interesting findings emerge when developed and emerging markets are considered separately. Empirical evidence indicates that the use of relatively cheap financial capital for foreign investment is prominent among developed countries, but not so in emerging markets. This is largely due to the extremely low level of foreign investment outflows in emerging markets and the inability of unsophisticated emerging market managers to successfully time the market. Further investigation shows that host-country stock market valuation is an important determinant of the mode of foreign investment; investors tend to choose indirect or portfolio investment, as opposed to direct investment, when the stock market is perceived to be undervalued. This is especially the case in emerging markets, where there is more room for misvaluation and potential arbitrage. These findings suggest that the unique institutional features of the markets involved play an important role in shaping foreign investment and cross-country arbitrage.     

Managerial characteristics and stock market investment: evidence from China

We examine the effect of managerial characteristics on investment in the stock market by listed firms in China. Our empirical findings suggest that higher levels of cash‐based compensation may increase both the propensity of investing in the stock market and the total amount of investment. On the other hand, managerial holdings discourage managers from investing in stock markets and also lead to a decrease in the amount of investment. This study sheds light on managerial risk‐taking incentives. Moreover, this study fills the gap in the literature by providing evidence for the determinants of listed firms’ stock market investment.     

房价预期与城镇居民家庭股市参与——理论探讨与微观经验证据

本文基于中国家庭金融调查数据,通过构建理论模型和实证检验分析了房价预期与家庭股市参与的关系,考察了行为金融偏差在房价预期影响股市参与过程中的作用,并根据背景风险、社会网络和户主特征进行异质性分析。结果表明:(1)房价上涨预期通过降低居民家庭的股票收益率预期和增加住房资产,进而降低居民家庭的股市参与概率和参与程度;(2)“心理账户”以及“有限关注”的存在显著弱化了房价上涨预期对家庭股市参与的负向作用;(3)房价上涨预期对股市参与概率和参与程度的负向作用在收入风险更高、健康状况更差、社会网络水平较低以及受教育程度偏低的家庭中更大。因此,稳定房价预期能够通过提升家庭股市参与,进而从需求角度促进股票市场的健康发展。     

Time and frequency dynamics of connectedness and hedging performance in global stock markets: Bitcoin versus conventional hedges

Some studies have revealed the hedging ability of Bitcoin against stock markets, but the knowledge of how it compares with other hedges is in its infancy. This paper presents the first study on time-frequency domain connectedness and hedging among five hedges (Bitcoin, crude oil, commodities, gold and the U.S. dollar (USD) index) and four stock indices (developed markets ex U.S., emerging markets ex China, U.S. and China). We find that the connectedness between hedges and stock markets varies by time across time horizons. Specifically, the connectedness between Bitcoin and stock indices is the smallest among all hedges, especially for the short horizon. Gold and USD are isolated from other markets at longer horizons. The hedging ratio, optimal portfolio weights and hedging effectiveness also vary across investment horizons. For short-term investment, gold has better hedging effectiveness, especially for emerging stock markets and the U.S. stock market. For median- and long-term investment, USD has better performance, especially for developed markets ex U.S. and emerging stock markets. Additionally, although Bitcoin has good hedging properties, it has high volatility compared with other hedging assets. In other words, if Bitcoin is included in a portfolio, investors should pay attention to its wide variation. These empirical findings highlight the important role that gold and USD play in hedging against global stock markets.     

Time-varying risk premia and the cost of capital: An alternative implication of the Q theory of investment

Evidence suggests that expected excess stock market returns vary over time, and that this variation is much larger than that of expected real interest rates. It follows that a large fraction of the movement in the cost of capital in standard investment models must be attributable to movements in equity risk-premia. In this paper we emphasize that such movements in equity risk premia should have implications not merely for investment today, but also for future investment over long horizons. In this case, predictive variables for excess stock returns over long-horizons are also likely to forecast long-horizon fluctuations in the growth of marginal Q, and therefore investment. We test this implication directly by performing long-horizon forecasting regressions of aggregate investment growth using a variety of predictive variables shown elsewhere to have forecasting power for excess stock market returns.     

How Do Investment,Fundamentals, and Stock Prices Relate Around the World?

We assemble a novel data set of industry panel data for the corporate sector and the entire economy across a number of countries to explore the connection between investment and stock prices. The link is present in all samples, in both the aggregate and industry dimensions, and increases with stock market development. Fundamentals are less related to prices in underdeveloped markets but are similarly related to investment everywhere. Thus, the active informant interpretation does not seem to be the main force behind the stock market–investment relationship. In addition, industries that are more dependent on equity finance, and where investors are strongest, exhibit higher sensitivity to prices, especially in developed markets.     

The q-factors and expected bond returns

This study provides new insight into the recent debate on profitability and investment patterns in the cross-section of expected returns. Relying on implied risk premia of U.S. corporate bonds, we document a strong negative relation between exposure to the profitability factor and cost of debt. We do not observe a robust relation between exposure to the investment factor and cost of debt. Our findings are consistent with profitability being a risk factor, but suggest that high profitability implies lower (and not higher) risk. Because the market portfolio consists of all risky assets including corporate bonds, our findings challenge a risk-based explanation for the profitability and investment patterns in stock returns.     

Metodología para la toma de decisiones de inversión en portafolio de acciones utilizando la técnica multicriterio AHP

This paper presents a methodology for decision making in the Colombia stock market by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) multicriteria technique. The problem of the research is related to the process for making investment decisions in a stock market by considering risk and profitability criteria. The research methodology includes the integration of traditional techniques for making investment decisions in equity portfolio with the AHP technique. The AHP multicriteria technique allows evaluating a finite number of choices with qualitative and quantitative criteria in a hierarchical way. The methodology has been tested on the solution of the problem of choice an equity portfolio by considering stocks of high and Medium Marketability which quoted in the Colombian stock market from December 2007 to April 2010. The computational results show the importance and efficiency of the successful integration of the traditional criteria of equity portfolio investment with the methodology AHP, for finding an appropriate balance between profitability and risk in the process of stock investment on the Colombian stock market.     

Credit Spread Changes and Equity Volatility: Evidence from Daily Data

We investigate the determinants of daily changes in credit spreads in the U.S. corporate bond market. Using a sample of liquid investment grade and high‐yield bonds, we show that both systematic bond and stock market factors as well as idiosyncratic equity market factors affect changes in the yield spread at the daily frequency. In particular, we find that increase in stock market volatility has a positive effect on changes in the spread of corporate bonds over the corresponding Treasuries beyond that captured by standard term structure variables. Our results show that there is an almost contemporaneous inverse relationship between changes in the bond yield spread and the stock return of the issuing firm.     

Law,Stock Markets,and Innovation

We study a broad sample of firms across 32 countries and find that strong shareholder protections and better access to stock market financing lead to substantially higher long‐run rates of R&D investment, particularly in small firms, but are unimportant for fixed capital investment. Credit market development has a modest impact on fixed investment but no impact on R&D. These findings connect law and stock markets with innovative activities key to economic growth, and show that legal rules and financial developments affecting the availability of external equity financing are particularly important for risky, intangible investments not easily financed with debt.     

Investment Horizon and Composition of Optimal Portofolio: International Evidence

Little attention has been paid in the literature to the impact of different investment horizons on the portfolio compositiondespite its importance to portfolio managers. One exception isthe study by Gunthorpe and Levy (1994) on the U.S. stock market.Our paper extends the same study to the stock markets of Japan,Hong Kong and Korea. Using 40 individual stocks in each market,our results support those of Gunthorpe and Levy (1994) in thatthe composition of an optimal portfolio depends heavily on theinvestment horizon. When the investment horizon lengthens, theproportion of defensive stocks becomes larger while that ofaggressive stocks becomes smaller.     

仓位限制对证券投资基金投资行为的影响研究

本文考察了股票仓位限制对证券投资基金投资行为的影响,发现仓位限制抑制了基金的动量行为,并使波段操作成为基金经理应对申购赎回机制和评价考核机制压力的基本策略。这意味着基于仓位限制的基金投资行为使股市波动的幅度减小、频率加快。据此,本文认为在我国股票市场过度波动的情况下,基金业绩差强人意与仓位限制有关,并且基金因为仓位限制而发挥了稳定市场的重要作用。