Modeling Corporate Bond Returns

We propose a conditional factor model for corporate bond returns with five factors and time-varying factor loadings. We have three main empirical findings. First, our factor model excels in describing the risks and returns of corporate bonds, improving over previously proposed models in the literature by a large margin. Second, our model recommends a systematic bond investment portfolio whose high out-of-sample Sharpe ratio suggests that the credit risk premium is notably larger than previously estimated. Third, we find closer integration between debt and equity markets than found in prior literature.     

On the suboptimality of single-factor exercise strategies for Bermudan swaptions

This paper examines the interaction between momentum in the returns of equities and corporate bonds. We find that investment grade corporate bonds do not exhibit momentum at the three- to 12-month horizons. Instead, the evidence suggests that they exhibit reversals. However, significant evidence exists of a momentum spillover from equities to investment grade corporate bonds of the same firm. Firms earning high (low) equity returns over the previous year earn high (low) bond returns the following year. The spillover results are stronger among firms with lower-grade debt and higher equity trading volume, seem robust to various risk and liquidity controls, and hold even after controlling for past earnings surprises. In examining the source of the spillover, we find that the bond ratings of firms with positive (negative) equity momentum continue to improve (deteriorate) in the future, suggesting underreaction to the information in past equity prices about changing default risk is a likely source of the spillover effect. Overall, our results suggest that both equity and debt underreact to firm fundamentals, but past equity returns is a better proxy of firm fundamentals than past bond returns.     

Corporate bond returns and the financial crisis

We examine effects of government actions and related accounting policies on the corporate bond market implied by changes in relations between aggregate bond returns and cash flow and discount rate news. We capture the influence of risk by partitioning bonds into investment and speculative grades. We use earnings changes as a proxy for cash flow news and T-Bill rate changes as a proxy for discount rate news. As expected, during non-crisis periods, we observe a positive relation between earnings changes and bond returns and a negative relation for T-Bill rate changes. A combination of government bailouts of large financial institutions and mark-to-market accounting preserves the positive relation for earnings changes during the crisis for investment grade bonds, while absence of these factors leads to an insignificant relation for speculative grade. Intervention by the Federal Reserve to induce lower interest rates as earnings were declining, a flight to safety shifting demand from corporate bonds to T-Bills, and low cost funds invested in risk free investments explain a reversal of the relation between bond returns and T-Bill rate changes for both grades.     

The Cross Section of Expected Real Estate Returns: Insights from Investment-Based Asset Pricing

Motivated by investment-based asset pricing, we show that two firm fundamentals, investment and profitability, have substantial predictive power for REIT returns. The return predictability of investment and profitability is not subsumed by conventional models and can be useful for understanding the cross section of expected REIT returns. To illustrate, we construct an investment-based factor model for REITs that consists of a market factor, an investment factor, and a profitability factor. The investment-based model outperforms conventional models in capturing well-known cross-sectional patterns in REIT returns. Our findings suggest that incorporating investment-based asset pricing can be a promising direction for future real estate finance research.     

Sources of Financing,Profitability and Productivity: First Evidence from Matched Firms

This paper contributes to the literature on capital structure and firm performance. Using firm‐level data covering over 11,000 firms from 47 countries over a recent period of 1997‐2007, we address the effect of different sources of financing on corporate performance, employing a matching process, which allows an adequate `like‐for‐like’ comparison between high and low level of financing by firms. Robust to different matching estimators, the main findings are consistent with the theories of capital structure, in that firms with high debt‐to‐equity ratio tend to have lower returns to shareholders (profitability) and lower internal efficiency (productivity). The results become more robust when we separate the firms into advanced and emerging country‐groups or countries with high/low levels of financial development. Given the lower level of leverage below 50% on average in emerging markets (or in countries with lower level of financial reforms), firms in these economies face lower risk of financial distress and thereby less adverse effect on firm profitability and productivity, relative to their counterparts in advanced economies. We also find that retained earnings and equity financing improve performance, while debt financing by firms particularly in the form of bank loans leads to lower performance, although not so in the case of debt raised through issuing bonds.     

The information content of aggregate profitability

Recently, there has been significant interest in the information content of aggregate accounting profitability. I collect evidence on whether aggregate profitability captures information about changes in the cost of capital as predicted by classical investment theory. Consistent with these predictions, I find that the stock market return is negatively related to future accounting profitability for several years into the future. I provide evidence that this relation is most likely due to a positive association between changes in expected returns which exert a negative impact on stock returns and future profitability. These findings indicate that aggregate accounting profitability reflects significant economic content related to the cost of capital. This study is the first to link changes in accounting profitability to the market cost of capital under an investment-based mechanism.     

How do bond investors perceive dividend payouts?

We explore how bond investors view corporate cash distributions through dividends and how that view influences corporate cost of debt. Explaining between 45 and 67 percent of variance in credit spreads at the time of issuance, our model reveals a non-linear association between dividend payouts and investment return expected by bondholders. In particular, while bondholders view cash disbursements in small amounts as a positive signal, large dividend payouts are viewed negatively. Our results thus provide support for both the signaling hypothesis and for the agency-cost-of-debt hypothesis. The results are robust even after controlling for firm size, growth opportunities, profitability, leverage, business risk, asset tangibility, and term structure. Exploiting the 2003 dividend tax cut as an exogenous shock, we demonstrate that our results are not vulnerable to endogeneity problems. Finally, we find no evidence of corporations timing the payouts strategically to influence the cost of debt.     

债务结构优化与企业创新——基于企业债券融资视角的研究

本文在我国保持宏观杠杆率基本稳定及实施创新驱动发展战略的现实背景下,从债券融资的视角,探讨债务结构优化对企业创新的影响。研究发现,债券融资与企业创新之间显著正相关,表明债券融资优化企业债务结构、提升企业创新能力的积极作用占据主导地位。进一步研究表明:(1)债券融资能够通过降低整体债务融资成本并延长整体债务期限促进企业创新;(2)债券融资对于银行贷款存在溢出效应,即企业通过债券融资,还能降低银行贷款利率、延长银行贷款期限,进而促进企业创新;(3)产品市场竞争和代理问题会在一定程度上削弱债券融资对企业创新的促进作用;(4)不同类型的债券对企业创新能力的作用存在异质性,债券发行的便利性是其影响企业创新的一个重要因素。     

Financial Constraints, Debt Capacity, and the Cross-section of Stock Returns

Building on a model of corporate investment under collateral constraints, we develop and test a hypothesis on the differential effect of debt capacity on stock returns across financially constrained and unconstrained firms. Consistent with the hypothesis, we find that debt capacity is a significant determinant of stock returns only in the cross-section of financially constrained firms, after controlling for beta, size, book-to-market, leverage, and momentum. The findings suggest that cross-sectional differences in corporate investment behavior arising from financial constraints, predicted by theories of imperfect capital markets and supported by empirical evidence, are reflected in the stock returns of manufacturing firms.     

The real effects of bank taxation: Evidence for corporate financing and investment

This paper examines how bank taxation affects the financing decisions and investment activities of corporates. Exploiting exogenous tax variation at the bank level, we show that taxing banks' gross profits leads to higher bank leverage, and results in lower risk and credit supply. The contraction in credit supply has implications for corporate debt financing and investment activity. Corporates more exposed to banks subject to gross profit tax exhibit lower leverage and rely less on bank debt. Corporates partly offset lower bank financing by switching to bond financing. The cost of bond financing increases with corporate exposure to the tax. A greater exposure also impacts negatively on corporate investment activity. Overall, our results highlight the importance of bank taxation for corporate financing and investment decisions.     

The Impact of Dividend Covenants on Investment and Operating Performance

This paper examines the influence of dividend covenants in corporate bonds on investment and operating performance. Prior literature analytically demonstrates that by limiting dividend distribution to shareholders, dividend restrictions effectively place a minimum on investment expenditures. This suggests a positive relation between dividend covenants and investment. The literature also conjectures that the influence of dividend covenants on investment (1) mitigates the under‐investment problem associated with debt financing; or (2) exacerbates over‐investment. We empirically document that the presence of dividend covenants is associated with a higher level of investment and poorer future performance. Further analyses confirm that the higher level of investment is consistent with dividend covenants exacerbating over‐investment, not mitigating under‐investment. Our results shed light on the cost aspect of dividend covenants proposed in prior literature.     

ILLIQUIDITY RISK,PROJECT CHARACTERISTICS,AND THE OPTIMAL MATURITY OF CORPORATE DEBT

I derive the optimal maturity period for corporate debt used to finance a specific project, when costly financial distress is triggered by the inability to meet coupon obligations. My model predicts a negative relation between bond risk and maturity, and it explains why high-grade bonds show greater maturity dispersion than low-grade bonds, as observed in U.S. corporate bond markets. The major determinant of bond maturity is project duration for low-risk bonds and project risk for high-risk bonds. Other determinants of bond maturity are debt burden, reorganization costs, corporate tax rate, interest rate, and project growth rate.     

Aggregate Earnings and Corporate Bond Markets

I examine the previously unexplored relation between aggregate earnings changes and corporate bond market returns. I find that aggregate earnings changes have a negative relation to investment‐grade corporate bond market returns and a positive relation to high‐yield corporate bond market returns. The aggregate earnings‐returns relation is lower (i.e., less positive or more negative) for bonds with higher credit ratings and longer maturities. Further, I show that the aggregate earnings‐returns relation is driven by both the expected and the news component of aggregate earnings changes. The expected component is negatively related to expected returns, and the news component is positively related to cash flow news and changes in nominal interest rates, and negatively related to changes in default premia. My results contribute to the understanding of the role of earnings in corporate bond markets as well as the macroeconomic role of accounting information.     

The profitability and investment premium: Pre-1963 evidence

I investigate the profitability and investment premium in stock returns using hand-collected data from Moody's Manuals for 1940–1963. Controlling for value, the profitability premium emerges as important in this period. In contrast, there is no reliable relation between investment and returns, regardless of whether investment is measured using growth in total assets or book equity and even after extending the data back to 1926. In spanning regressions, factors constructed from profitability and book-to-market ratios (RMW and HML, respectively) improve the mean-variance efficient tangency portfolio but the investment factor (CMA) does not.     

International tests of a five-factor asset pricing model

Average stock returns for North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific increase with the book-to-market ratio (B/M) and profitability and are negatively related to investment. For Japan, the relation between average returns and B/M is strong, but average returns show little relation to profitability or investment. A five-factor model that adds profitability and investment factors to the three-factor model of Fama and French (1993) largely absorbs the patterns in average returns. As in Fama and French, 2015, Fama and French, 2016, the model's prime problem is failure to capture fully the low average returns of small stocks whose returns behave like those of low profitability firms that invest aggressively.     

Corporate Pyramids,Conservatism and Cost of Debt: Evidence From Taiwan

This study investigates the extent to which the span of corporate pyramids (as measured by the number of ownership layers) is associated with higher agency costs of debt, and whether conservatism can moderate the agency cost. Consistent with corporate pyramids generating higher agency costs and information asymmetries between corporate insiders and outside creditors, we find a positive association between the number of investment layers and cost of debt. However, we also find that multi-layered firms mitigate organizational opaqueness through increased financial reporting conservatism, which results in lower cost of debt capital. These findings provide new insights into the relationship between organizational structure and financial reporting quality.     

Corporate social responsibility and inside debt: The long game

We examine the effect of CEO inside debt on corporate social responsibility (CSR). We document a positive relation between CEO inside debt and CSR. This positive relation is attenuated not only when firms face high risk, but also when firms have high short-term institutional ownership. Our evidence supports the view that CEOs with large inside debt holdings are more concerned about firm sustainability and, are therefore more likely to prefer CSR for long-term firm benefits, i.e., the long game. We also find that CSR and CEO inside debt jointly exert a significantly positive impact on long-run stock performance, particularly in the presence of a low level of short-term institutional holdings. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of aligning institutional investor preferences with CEO incentives in order to maximize shareholder benefits from CSR investment.     

Liquidity risk and expected corporate bond returns

This paper studies the pricing of liquidity risk in the cross section of corporate bonds for the period from January 1994 to March 2009. The average return on bonds with high sensitivities to aggregate liquidity exceeds that for bonds with low sensitivities by about 4% annually. The positive relation between expected corporate bond returns and liquidity beta is robust to the effects of default and term betas, liquidity level, and other bond characteristics, as well as to different model specifications, test methodologies, and a variety of liquidity measures. The results suggest that liquidity risk is an important determinant of expected corporate bond returns.     

上市公司综合盈利水平与股票收益

本文基于2000-2017年上市公司的财务及股票交易数据,研究了上市公司综合盈利水平与股票收益之间的关系。我们使用目前资产定价文献中较新的偏最小二乘法和组合预测法,从12个衡量公司盈利能力的指标中提取了一个测度上市公司综合盈利水平的指标。研究结果显示,上市公司综合盈利水平能够显著预测未来股票收益。使用单因子偏最小二乘法、取12个月斜率的平均值构造的综合盈利水平最有效,以其构建的多空对冲投资组合能产生15%的年平均收益,夏普比率达到0.75。与此对应,组合预测法提取的上市公司综合盈利水平的预测能力稍低,但依然显著。在控制了其他公司特征变量后,综合盈利水平对于股票收益的解释能力依然稳健。本文还从经济机制的角度出发,探讨了综合盈利水平对收益的预测来源。我们发现,上市公司综合盈利水平与股票预期回报的正向关系在投资摩擦更低的组中更高,而在错误定价程度更高的组通常更低。这些结果支持了基于投资摩擦的Q理论,而与行为金融的错误定价理论相悖。     

Corporate debt and unconventional monetary policy: The risk-taking channel with bond and loan contracts

We investigate the effects of unconventional monetary policies on corporate debt through the risk-taking channel using corporate bond and syndicated loan contracts from 2000 to 2016 in Japan. In this period, the policy rate remained fixed near the zero bound. Using the daily changes in the yield curve on monetary policy meeting days, we identify one call rate shock and two unconventional monetary policy shocks that do not affect short-term rates. We find that QE shocks, which move all medium-to-long-term rates, increase the maturity of debt contracts, especially for syndicated loans. In addition, such QE shocks decrease the size of corporate bonds with short maturity. On the other hand, QQE shocks, which raise medium-term rates and lower long-term rates, decrease the size of loans and corporate bonds with longer maturity. These effects imply the existence of the risk-taking channel of unconventional monetary policy: it stimulates investment in longer-maturity assets and decreases investment in assets with lower yields. Our findings show that unconventional policies affect debt contracts even in an extremely low interest rate environment.