Benchmarking the information society in the long range

In this paper, a model for Information Society (IS) benchmarking in the long range is proposed. This model, called EOR, aims to support and integrate (1) the development of future visions about the IS/Information Technology (IT) industry, (2) detection of obstacles to IS/IT diffusion, (3) detection of recommendations for IS/IT diffusion, and (4) benchmarking processes focused on the IS/IT field. The EOR is based on a Delphi-Cross-Impact approach. In this work, the key principles and issues of EOR implementation are analyzed and an application of the EOR to a technology foresight process is reported.     

Assessing the solvency of the insurance industry

The article attempts to assess the ability of the insurance industry to discharge its liabilities and to settle in full the claims against it without resorting to any of the limited safety nets that exist. The article examines several indicators of the health of the industry including: (1) industry profitability, (2) the risk level of assets held, (3) the industry's capital cushion, (4) the duration match between assets and liabilities, and (5) possible agency problems induced by the operation of a safety net. In addition, other risks are considered including the escalating costs of settling claims and pressures to make insurance rates more affordable. The article concludes with a cautiously optimistic appraisal. The industry, with a few notable exceptions, is somewhat stronger than banking intermediaries. Concerns over a generalized solvency problem, such as that faced by the savings industry, appear misplaced.This research was supported by the John M. Olin Program for the Study of Economic Organization and Public Policy at Princeton University.     

Modelling the dynamics,structural breaks and the determinants of the real exchange rate of Australia

This paper examines the dynamics, structural breaks and determinants of the real exchange rate (RER) of Australia derived from an inter-temporal general equilibrium model. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling results show that a one per cent increase in: (1) terms of trade appreciates the RER by 0.96–1.05 per cent in the long-run; (2) government expenditure appreciates the RER by 0.53–0.46 per cent in the long-run; (3) net foreign liabilities appreciates the RER by 0.18–0.22 per cent in the long-run; (4) interest rate differential depreciates the RER by 0.007–0.01 per cent in the long-run; (5) openness in trade depreciates the RER by 1.15–1.31 per cent in the long-run; and (6) per-worker labour productivity depreciates the RER by 0.38–0.55 per cent in the long-run. The two endogenously determined structural breaks are positive but are statistically insignificant. The speed of adjustment towards equilibrium is high with short-run disequilibrium correcting by nearly 39–47 per cent per quarter. These results add new insights to the literature on the determinants of RER in Australia. Apart from the terms of trade, the effects of other determinants of RER are contrary to the results obtained in previous studies.     

Friction in the trading process and the estimation of systematic risk

This paper considers how estimates of the market model beta parameter can be biased by friction in the trading process (information, decision, and transaction costs) that (a) leads to a distinction between observed and ‘true’ returns; (b) causes observed returns to be generated asynchronously for a set of interdependent securities; and (c) thereby introduces serial cross-correlation into security returns. Several propositions are derived from which consistent estimators of beta are obtained, and the effect of differencing interval length on beta estimates is specified. The formulation is contrasted with the related analyses of Scholes-Williams (1977) and Dimson (1979).     

Reexamining the Robustness of the Market Value of Equity

We apply the methodology of Knez and Ready (KR) (1997) to data from the Japanese stock market and reexamine the robustness of the risk premium for the market value of equity (MVE). In particular, we compare two alternative explanations for the relation between stock returns and MVE: the one pointed out by Fama and French (FF) (1992) and the other proposed by Berk (1995). Consistent with results for the U.S. market, when we check FF's explanation for MVE, we find that the risk premium for MVE is not robust against extreme observations. Besides the evidence supporting KR's findings, we study the role of MVE proposed by Berk (1995), who points out that under controlled expected cash flows, MVE will be negatively correlated with expected returns. After showing that MVE negatively correlates with risk in the presence of expected cash flows, we test the robustness of the relation between returns and MVE. We find that the estimated risk premium for MVE is robust when realized cash flows (earnings plus depreciation) or book value of equity (BE) is used as a proxy for expected cash flows.     

Revisiting the ICAPM under the distortion of risk–return tradeoff in short-horizon stock returns

We suggest that the distortion of the positive risk–return relation in the ICAPM is a consequence of trading by informed investors to exploit mispricing. We hypothesize and demonstrate that a non-positive (strongly positive) risk–return relation following positive (negative) market returns is attributed to short-selling (purchasing) of overpriced (underpriced) stocks along with optimistic (pessimistic) expectations conditional on good (bad) market news. We verify this asymmetry in the risk–return relation through the indirect risk–return relation conditional on good (bad) market news. We also find that the attenuation (reinforcement) of the positive risk–return relation is more profound in high- (low-) sentiment periods.     

On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks

We find support for a negative relation between conditional expected monthly return and conditional variance of monthly return, using a GARCH-M model modified by allowing (1) seasonal patterns in volatility, (2) positive and negative innovations to returns having different impacts on conditional volatility, and (3) nominal interest rates to predict conditional variance. Using the modified GARCH-M model, we also show that monthly conditional volatility may not be as persistent as was thought. Positive unanticipated returns appear to result in a downward revision of the conditional volatility whereas negative unanticipated returns result in an upward revision of conditional volatility.     

An Intraday Examination of the Components of the Bid–Ask Spread

Using transactions data for a sample of NYSE stocks, we decompose the bid–ask spread (BAS) into order–processing (OP) and asymmetric information (AI) components using the techniques of George, Kaul, and Nimalendran (1991) and Madhavan, Richardson, and Roomans (1997). McInish and Wood (1992) demonstrate that the intraday behavior of BASs can be explained by variables measuring activity, competition, risk, and information. We investigate whether these variables explain the behavior of the OP and AI components of the spread over the trading day. We conclude that, on balance, the variables that determine the aggregate BAS also determine its intraday components.     

The Role of the Options Market in the Dissemination of Private Information

Abstract:   This paper examines the role the options market plays in the dissemination of private information. We find abnormal volume in the options market for three days prior to management forecasts, controlling for concurrent equity volume. Classifying trades as long or short, we find more informed options volume relative to equity volume (1) with relatively greater options market liquidity; (2) when equity is listed on the NYSE or AMEX; (3) for larger surprises; (4) with fewer analysts; (5) for shorter times between the forecast and period end; (6) for good news forecasts; and (7) for smaller percentage institutional holdings.     

A note on the turn of the month and year effects in international stock returns

This examination of the turn of the month (TOM) and turn of the year (TOY) effects in 50 international stock indices, for the period 1994–2006, characterises the degree that the effects are influenced by: (i) the gross domestic product of the economy, (ii) the sign of the return on the prior day (called the prior day effect), (iii) a temporal indicator and (iv) the Monday effect. These effects are assessed by the use of an estimated generalised least squares (EGLS) panel regression model incorporating panel-corrected standard errors. Three important results relating to the TOM and TOY effects are observed. When the prior day effect on control days is used as the reference and controls are made for market development and year, we find that: (i) there is a relatively enhanced return on all TOM days, (ii) there is a relatively enhanced return on good TOY days and (iii) returns of bad TOY days are not remarkable.     

Heterogeneously informed trading and the stock market efficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic

This study investigates the U.S. stock market efficiency from the symmetric and asymmetric perspectives during the COVID-19 pandemic. We explore that the pandemic boosts (hurts) the information role of symmetrically (asymmetrically) informed trading. Specifically, we find that the epidemic outbreak and infection scale strengthen (weaken) the stock return reaction to symmetrically (asymmetrically) informed trading. Evidence also indicates that the effect of symmetrically (asymmetrically) informed trading on stocks' permanent price shocks and price informational efficiency is enhanced (impaired) during the pandemic. Moreover, all these effects are consistently more intensive to informed buys.     

Does the truth rest with the minority? Divergent views on nonfinancial firms' financial investments from the private equity market

We investigate how the seasoned equity market evaluates nonfinancial firms that recently bought wealth management products (WMPs). Using a sample of Chinese firms, we find that the stock market reacts less positively to private equity placements (PEPs) by firms that recently purchased WMPs (i.e., quasi-deposits) than to those that did not. Further analysis suggests that compared with retail investors, sophisticated (i.e., institutional and high-net-worth) investors pay a higher price for the shares of these WMP-buying firms. After PEPs, we find that the long-term operating performance and firm value of WMP-buying firms are higher than those of non-buying firms. Overall, the findings suggest that: (i) engaging in shadow banking activities (buying WMPs) does not mean a firm is distracted, and (ii) sophisticated investors are less concerned than retail investors about a firm's shadow banking activities.     

Factors explaining the interest margin in the banking sectors of the European Union

This study analyses the interest margin in the principal European banking sectors (Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Spain) in the period 1993–2000 using a panel of 15,888 observations, identifying the fundamental elements affecting this margin. Our starting point is the methodology developed in the original study by Ho and Saunders [Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis XVI (1981) 581–600] and later extensions, but widened to take banks' operating costs explicitly into account. Also, unlike the usual practice in the literature, a direct measure of the degree of competition (Lerner index) in the different markets is used. The results show that the fall of margins in the European banking system is compatible with a relaxation of the competitive conditions (increase in market power and concentration), as this effect has been counteracted by a reduction of interest rate risk, credit risk, and operating costs.     

Expectations and the asset-market approach to the exchange rate

This paper advances the following arguments concerning that portion of the literature characterized by deterministic models in which asset markets adjust quickly relative to the commodity market: (i) Overshooting of the exchange rate in response to exogenous shocks is not inherent. (ii) Perfect foresight and stability are incompatible. (iii) An alternative trade-balance approach is free of this incompatibility and also illustrates that two competing theories of the exchange rate are consistent. The analysis is general enough to include all interesting assumptions about expectations formation and therefore embraces many recent contributions as special cases.     

Perceived justice and customer loyalty in the retail banking sector in the UAE

In this study, the impacts of the three dimensions of justice (distributive, interactional, and procedural) on customers’ post-complaint behaviour (ie exit vs loyalty) of both conventional and Islamic banks in the UAE were investigated. The results showed that interactional justice (eg courtesy) and distributive justice (eg refund) play predominant roles, since they impact both positive and negative emotions and the exit-loyalty behaviour of customers regardless of the type of bank (conventional or Islamic). The results show, however, that procedural justice (eg timeliness) has no impact on either negative or positive emotions and the exit-loyalty behaviour of either conventional bank customers or Islamic bank customers. The results were interpreted in terms of cultural context and in terms of managerial implications for conventional and Islamic banks that are mostly dealing with complaint handling and employee training. The limitations of this study are also discussed at the end.     

Harmonisation of financial reporting before the European Company Law Directives: the case of the Nordic Companies Act

De jure harmonisation of financial reporting began early in the Nordic countries with initial discussions reported as early as the 1930s. Legislation implemented in the 1970s was based on a proposal for a common Nordic Companies Act. This article follows the history of this legislation and analyses it with a view to providing insights into voluntary harmonisation across multiple countries. The main lessons appear to be that (1) Germany had a measurable influence; (2) taxes played an important role which has persisted in some countries, with others resisting change until the 1980s and 1990s; (3) the Nordic countries were among the first to introduce a legal requirement for publication of a funds flow statement; (4) meeting the needs of diverse and dynamic stakeholders was addressed differentially by the Nordic countries; and (5) regional co-operation seems to have been overtaken by events on the broader international stage and the costs of compromise.     

Determinants of the decision to submit market or limit orders on the ASX

This paper examines factors that affect the decision criterion used by market participants when determining whether to place buy and sell orders at market or away from the market on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX). Using logit regressions, the results indicate that (i) the bid–ask spread, (ii) depth at the best price, (iii) price changes in the last 5 minutes, and (iv) order imbalance are major determinants of the traders' decision to place market and limit orders.     

International Harmonisation: He Who Pays the Piper Calls the Tune

This article reviews the historical background to the call for Australian accounting standards (AASBs) to be "harmonised" with international accounting standards (LASs) and analyses the major arguments for and against it. The companion article by Tarca reviews research on the extent of harmony between national standards (including AASBs) and LASs and the third article in the series, by Brown and Clinch, reports the available capital-market evidence on the debate.     

Explaining the default risk anomaly by the two-beta model

This study attempts to explain the anomaly that firms with high-default risk earn low average realized returns. We measure default risk according to Ohlson's (1980) O-score and Campbell, Hilscher, and Szilagyi's (2008) failure probability and further implement Duffie, Saita, and Wang's (2007) doubly-stochastic intensity model to estimate default probabilities that incorporate the dynamics of the changes in covariates. We then employ Campbell and Vuolteenaho's (2004) two-beta model to estimate firms' cash-flow and discount-rate betas according to the default risk. The default risk anomaly persists when using Duffie el al.'s (2007) method. We show that cash-flow and discount-rate betas, respectively, earn a high and low premium and find that high-default firms tend to have relatively high discount-rate and low cash-flow betas. Hence, high-default firms deliver low expected returns. Importantly, 25.5% of the default risk anomaly can be explained by the two-beta model and that, on average, also accounts for 49.2% of the cross-sectional variation across the portfolios formed on default risk. This result implies that investors believe that high-default firms are unlikely to generate significantly extra cash flows when market-wide profitable opportunities improve.     

The regulatory response to the financial crisis

There are numerous aspects concerning financial regulation which the current financial turmoil has high-lighted. These include: (1) the form of deposit insurance; (2) bank solvency regimes, ‘prompt corrective action’; (3) Central Banks’ money market operations; (4) commercial bank liquidity risk management; (5) procyclicality of CARs (and mark-to-market); lack of counter-cyclical instruments; (5) boundaries of regulation, conduits, SIVs and reputational risk; (6) crisis management: (a) within countries, e.g. UK Tripartite Committee; or (b) cross-border, how to allocate the burden of cross-border defaults? This paper describes how the crisis exposed regulatory failings, drawing largely on UK experience, and suggests remedies.