THE RELATION BETWEEN THE MAGNITUDE OF GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES AND THE DURATION OF EQUITY

I examine the relation between the magnitude of growth opportunities in a firm and the duration of the firm's equity. Conventional wisdom holds that because cash flows from growth opportunities occur late relative to cash flows from existing projects, firms that can be characterized as growth firms have a higher duration. I adopt the real option approach to the valuation of growth opportunities and show that under certain circumstances the opposite can be true; equity duration can be lower for growth firms. I further show that the relation between equity duration and the magnitude of growth opportunities depends on (a) the magnitude of the duration of assets in place, (b) dominance of the firm in its industry, (c) the magnitude of R&D expenditure, and (d) the volatility of expected cash flows generated by the investment project underlying the growth opportunity. I empirically test these predictions and find the predictions are not rejected, particularly for the utility and banking industries. JEL classification: G31, G12.     

加拿大蒙特利尔银行的信贷管理及其借鉴

本文对加拿大蒙特利尔银行的经营管理方式进行了系统的介绍和分析,重点考察了蒙行的信贷文化、组织机构、信贷程序、经营理念和风险管理.西方商业银行的发展已有数百年的历史,它们在银行经营管理方面积累了丰富的经验,如果我国商业银行能根据国情对此进行选择性的吸收和继承,无疑在改革和转制成为真正的商业银行管理模式的过程中少走很多弯路.本文最后对工商银行的信贷管理提出了建议,包括:建立有自身特色的信贷文化;根据本行的风险偏好设定收益与风险的对应关系;运用先进的风险测量方法进行风险控制;根据市场设定组织机构;尽快建立客户资信系统;加强对不良客户的监管;建立金融安全协调与保障机制等.     

21世纪国际金融与资本市场调整的特点和发展趋势

进入新世纪,国际金融市场上尽管汇率、股价、金价、利率以及相关产品价格都出现不同程度的跳跃与波动,但总的来说是有惊无险,人们忧虑的金融泡沫始终没有形成并对国际经济产生影响.本文结合当前国际金融市场的走势,分析了未来国际金融与资本市场调整的五大特点,即风险预期加大、美国主导作用继续加大、竞争不均衡加大、协调与合作趋势加大和应对意识与能力加大;提出了调整发展的四大趋势,包括美国金融优化主导趋势、欧洲金融竞争向上趋势、日本金融潜在调整趋势和发展中国家金融加强趋势,以及未来国际金融与资本市场的变化格局;并对国际金融市场发展对我国金融业的影响进行了分析.