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1.
Pricing Structure in Tokyo Metropolitan Land Markets and its Structural Changes: Pre-bubble,Bubble, and Post-bubble Periods 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Chihiro Shimizu Kiyohiko G. Nishimura 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2007,35(4):475-496
In this paper, we estimate hedonic price equations of Japanese commercial and residential land prices for a 25-year period
and to investigate possible structural changes in these price equations. Our price equations are based on transaction prices,
not appraised land values, of commercial land in Central Business Districts of Tokyo (Chiyoda Ward, Chuo Ward, and Minato
Ward), and residential land of its suburb (Setagaya Ward). We find that price structure differs substantially among locations,
reflecting differences in supplier pricing and end-user preferences. We also find significant structural changes in price
structure, identifying pre-bubble, bubble and post-bubble periods.
相似文献
Chihiro ShimizuEmail: |
2.
The standard urban model supports the concept of a constant land price gradient throughout the urban area. It is a reasonable
conjecture that the land price gradient would vary with direction from the CBD. The variation in the gradient could be caused
by a number of factors, but the idea that the land price gradient is flatter along radial transportation routes than in other
directions is widely recognized even though there is little rigorous empirical work supporting this belief. This paper will
examine the structure of urban land prices with a focus on the land price gradient as a function of the direction around the
center of the city using a piecewise linear function. The added flexibility in the gradient estimate gained by this approach
reveals a dramatically varying directional land price gradient.
相似文献
Henry J. MunnekeEmail: |
3.
We propose two alternative models to estimate fundamental prices on real estate markets. The first model is based on a no-arbitrage
condition between renting and buying. The second model interprets the period costs as the result of market equilibrium between
housing demand and supply. We estimate both models for the USA, the UK, Japan, Switzerland, and the Netherlands. We find that
observed prices deviate substantially and for long periods from their estimated fundamental values. However, we find some
evidence that, in the long-run, actual prices tend to return to their fundamental values progressively. This result is due
to both impulse–response functions and forecast analyses. In particular, we find that using the fundamental price significantly
increases the accuracy of out-of-sample long-term forecasts of the price.
相似文献
Christian HottEmail: |
4.
Christoph Hinkelmann Steve Swidler 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,36(1):37-52
This paper examines the use of futures contracts to hedge residential real estate price risk. We examine whether existing
futures contacts can effectively be used to offset volatility in national house prices. Little evidence of any simple systematic
relation between national prices and futures prices is found. Since house prices are not easily replicated with a portfolio
of existing futures contracts, a further implication is that the Chicago Mercantile’s introduction of a financial asset whose
value reflects house prices will help complete the market. Nevertheless, the success of the CME’s new derivative contracts
may be limited in light of state and regional house price correlations.
相似文献
Steve Swidler (Corresponding author)Email: |
5.
Velma Zahirovic-Herbert Geoffrey K. Turnbull 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,37(2):113-130
This paper develops an empirical framework for taking into account the effects of endogenous liquidity on price capitalization
estimates. Changes in school attendance zones in the East Baton Rouge Parish public school district provide a natural experiment
for studying how changes in school characteristics affect house prices and liquidity. House price and selling time, or liquidity,
are simultaneously determined in search markets. The empirical model exploits variation in the surrounding neighborhood market
conditions pertinent to each house to identify the system of price and liquidity equations. The estimates are consistent with
search-market theory in that liquidity absorbs part of the capitalization of school quality.
相似文献
Velma Zahirovic-HerbertEmail: |
6.
Dynamic Residential Housing Cycles Analysis 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Robert H. Edelstein Desmond Tsang 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2007,35(3):295-313
This paper develops and tests a theoretical model for residential housing market cyclical dynamics. The model employs an interactive
supply and demand framework to engender housing price dynamics. Under our set of assumptions, the two equation system is econometrically
identified: the first equation, housing demand, relates rent, property values, and capitalization rates with demand fundamentals.
The second equation, housing supply, relates housing investment and property values with supply fundamentals. Using the model,
we analyze empirically the cyclical dynamics for residential properties in Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego and Sacramento
for the 1988–2003 time period. The theoretical and econometric design represents improvements and/or modifications of previous
studies in at least four ways. First, many of the earlier commercial cyclical analyses have focused on office appraisal and
have relied on sparse transactions data, which are likely to be less reliable than the copious amount of residential transactions
data. Second, the cyclical volatility and timing of single-family housing is different than that of commercial real estate.
Third, by examining different local MSA markets in California, our study distinguishes and isolates national-macro, regional
and local market variable effects upon cycles. Finally, utilizing quarterly data (versus annual data) sharpens our ability
to focus upon cyclical behaviour. Our empirical analyses suggest that fundamentals, such as employment growth and interest
rates are key determinants of the residential real estate cycles. However, in general, local fundamentals tend to have greater
cyclical impacts than those of national or regional fundamentals.
相似文献
Desmond TsangEmail: |
7.
Hsuan-Chu Lin 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2007,29(2):173-180
This paper identifies and corrects a typographical error in Black and Cox (J Finance 31:351–367, 1976). While the typographical error is seemingly trivial, the magnitude of the pricing error that it generates can be substantial.
相似文献
Hsuan-Chu LinEmail: |
8.
Existing literature on housing prices is predominantly in a linear framework, and an important question that has not been
addressed is whether housing prices exhibit nonlinearity. We examine Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model based nonlinear
properties of housing prices over the 1969–2004 period for the entire US and the four regions. Our main findings are (1) housing
price for the entire US and all regions except for the Midwest show non-linearity, (2) the dynamic properties implied by the
nonlinear estimation explain the typical patterns that have characterized each housing market, and (3) results of Granger
causality tests look more plausible in the nonlinear framework where we find stronger evidence of Granger causality from housing
price to employment and also from mortgage rates to housing price.
相似文献
Radha Bhattacharya (Corresponding author)Email: |
9.
Ruey S. Tsay Yi-Mien Lin Hsiao-Wen Wang 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2008,31(4):331-358
The paper uses Ohlson (Contemp Account Res 11:661–687, 1995) and compares the relative predictability of the proposed simultaneous
model for contemporaneous stock price with a traditional single equation model used by the previous studies. The paper also
explores how residual income and value-relevant information affect firms’ equity price. The main results of the paper suggest
that the predictive ability and estimation efficiency of the simultaneous models in explaining contemporaneous stock prices
are better than those of the traditional single models. Moreover, investors will use the value-relevant information beyond
accounting earnings, namely analysts’ earnings forecasts, bankruptcy cost and agency cost, in equity valuation to make decision.
Note particularly, the higher the bankruptcy or agency cost is, the more important the role it plays in equity valuation and,
on average, the higher the accuracy of price prediction is.
相似文献
Hsiao-Wen WangEmail: |
10.
Apostolos Dasilas 《Financial Markets and Portfolio Management》2009,23(1):59-91
This paper examines the ex-dividend stock price and trading volume behavior in the Greek stock market for the period 2000–2004.
We use both standard event-study methodology and cross-sectional regression analysis in assessing the ex-dividend stock price
anomaly. We find that stock prices drop less than the dividend amount. By examining abnormal returns as well as abnormal trading
volume around the ex-dividend day, we find strong evidence of short-term trading, which is consistent with the presence of
dividend-capturing activities around the ex-dividend day. The results from the cross-sectional regression analysis confirm
that the short-term trading hypothesis explains the ex-dividend day stock price anomaly in Greece.
相似文献
Apostolos DasilasEmail: |
11.
Determinants of House Prices: A Quantile Regression Approach 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Joachim Zietz Emily Norman Zietz G. Stacy Sirmans 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,37(4):317-333
OLS regression has typically been used in housing research to determine the relationship of a particular housing characteristic
with selling price. Results differ across studies, not only in terms of size of OLS coefficients and statistical significance,
but sometimes in direction of effect. This study suggests that some of the observed variation in the estimated prices of housing
characteristics may reflect the fact that characteristics are not priced the same across a given distribution of house prices.
To examine this issue, this study uses quantile regression, with and without accounting for spatial autocorrecation, to identify
the coefficients of a large set of diverse variables across different quantiles. The results show that purchasers of higher-priced
homes value certain housing characteristics such as square footage and the number of bathrooms differently from buyers of
lower-priced homes. Other variables such as age are also shown to vary across the distribution of house prices.
相似文献
G. Stacy SirmansEmail: |
12.
Taxation on Land Value and Development When There Are Negative Externalities from Development 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
This article employs a real options framework to investigate the design of taxation on both land value and development in
a competitive real estate market. We assume that developed properties reduce open space, and thereby harm urban residents.
However, ignoring this negative externality, landowners will develop properties sooner than is socially optimal. A regulator
can correct this tendency by imposing a positive tax on development or a negative tax on land value. Alternatively, the regulator
can implement both instruments simultaneously, in which case an increase in the tax rate on development will be accompanied
by an increase in the tax rate on land value, and vice versa.
相似文献
Tan Lee (Corresponding author)Email: |
13.
Patricia Fraser Martin Hoesli Lynn McAlevey 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,37(1):71-91
This paper studies actual (real) house prices relative to fundamental (real) house values in New Zealand for the period 1970–2005.
Utilizing a dynamic present value model, we find disparities between actual and fundamental house prices in the early 1970s
and 1980s and from 2000 to date. We model the bubble component that is related to fundamentals (the intrinsic component),
making it possible to highlight whether a bubble still exists after that component is accounted for. We then analyze any remaining
bubble to detect any momentum behavior. Much of the overvaluation of the housing market is found to be due to price dynamics
rather than an overreaction to fundamentals.
相似文献
Lynn McAleveyEmail: |
14.
C. Charles Okeahalam 《Journal of Financial Services Research》2008,33(3):147-162
I assess the impact of bancassurance on the price of retail financial services. I find that service fees in a product bundle
increase less than proportionally to the number of services; that an increase in the number of clients in each product bundle
market reduces fees by 1.5%; that the degree of competition in the markets of each bundle also reduces fees; that premium
products have higher average costs; and finally, that cross-holdings reduce prices by about 5% and bancassurance reduces prices
by just over 6%. The price reduction declines if both strategies are combined.
相似文献
C. Charles OkeahalamEmail: |
15.
Julie Mueller John Loomis Armando González-Cabán 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2009,38(2):155-172
Unlike most hedonic studies that analyze the effects of a one-time event, this paper analyzes the effects of forest fires
that are several years apart in a small geographical area. We find that repeated forest fires cause house prices to decrease
for houses located near the fires. We test and reject the hypothesis that the house price reduction from one fire is equal
to the house price reduction from a second fire. The first fire reduces house prices by about 10%, while the second fire reduces
house prices by nearly 23%, a statistically significant difference. The pattern of these results are robust to several alternative
econometric specifications.
相似文献
John Loomis (Corresponding author)Email: |
16.
Geoffrey K. Turnbull Jonathan Dombrow 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2007,35(1):57-76
This study examines how individual agents affect house selling prices and time on the market while controlling for brokerage
firm-specific effects as well as supply and demand conditions that vary by neighborhood. Firm size effects disappear once
firm specialization and agent characteristics are taken into account but geographic concentration by firms leads to higher
selling prices. For individual agents, neither sex nor selling own listings affects price or selling time, but there are gains
from partnering transactions across firms. Agents who specialize in listing properties obtain higher prices for their sellers
while those who specialize in selling obtain lower prices for their buyers. Houses nearer to other transactions of an agent
sell for higher prices. Finally, greater scale of listing and selling activity by an agent tends to lower selling price or
lengthen the time on the market.
相似文献
Geoffrey K. TurnbullEmail: |
17.
Oliver Kim Steve C. Lim Taewoo Park 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2009,32(2):145-168
In this paper we examine how sales affect earnings and in turn the stock price using a model in which sales contribute to
earnings by a fixed sales margin rate and the stock price responds more sensitively to sales-induced earnings than to non-sales-induced
earnings. We report that the regression coefficient of the sales margin (2.54) is about three times the earnings response
coefficient (0.85) for the full sample and can be as high as 19 times the earnings response coefficient for an industry (i.e.,
11.95 vs. 0.62 for restaurants). We contribute to the literature by identifying and documenting factors that make separating
out the sources of earnings more important in equity pricing.
相似文献
Taewoo ParkEmail: |
18.
Spatial Dependence,Housing Submarkets,and House Price Prediction 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Steven C. Bourassa Eva Cantoni Martin Hoesli 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2007,35(2):143-160
This paper compares alternative methods of controlling for the spatial dependence of house prices in a mass appraisal context.
Explicit modeling of the error structure is characterized as a relatively fluid approach to defining housing submarkets. This
approach allows the relevant submarket to vary from house to house and for transactions involving other dwellings in each
submarket to have varying impacts depending on distance. We conclude that—for our Auckland, New Zealand, data—the gains in
accuracy from including submarket variables in an ordinary least squares specification are greater than any benefits from
using geostatistical or lattice methods. This conclusion is of practical importance, as a hedonic model with submarket dummy
variables is substantially easier to implement than spatial statistical methods.
相似文献
Martin HoesliEmail: |
19.
Shinhua Liu 《Journal of Financial Services Research》2007,32(3):161-176
This study examines the effect of transaction costs on the time series behavior of stock returns over a period surrounding
the April 1989 changes in tax rates on securities transactions and capital gains in Japan. We find significant decreases in
estimates of the first-order autocorrelation in returns for Japanese stocks listed in Japan, but no changes for Japanese stocks
dually listed in the United States as American Depository Receipts (ADRs), which were not subject to the tax law change. We
also find lower price basis between the ADRs and their underlying Japanese stocks. These results are consistent with the hypothesis
that a reduction in transaction costs improves the efficiency of the price discovery process.
相似文献
Shinhua LiuEmail: |
20.
Mark Bertus Harris Hollans Steve Swidler 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,37(3):265-279
Until the recent introduction of real estate futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), there have been few opportunities
to manage house price risk. This paper examines whether house price risk can be effectively hedged in Las Vegas, one of the
CME contract cities. The analysis considers hedging from the viewpoint of real estate investment groups, mortgage portfolio
investors, builder/developers and individual homeowners. For investment groups and mortgage holders holding a mix of new and
existing home assets, CME futures would have reduced house price risk by more than 88% over the 1994–2006 period. Similarly,
homeowners implicitly hedging price volatility of existing homes also would have fared well over the sample period. However,
builder/developers worried about new home price appreciation would have been much less successful in managing their risk.
One important caveat, minimum variance hedge ratios change over time and may cause hedge performance to suffer.
相似文献
Steve Swidler (Corresponding author)Email: |