Neutral Property Taxation Under Uncertainty

In a framework where no uncertainty arises, Arnott (J Publ Econ Theor 7:27–50, 2005) investigates a neutral property taxation policy that will not affect a landowner’s choices of capital intensity and timing of development. We investigate the same issue, but allow rents on structures to be stochastic over time. We assume that a regulator implements taxation on capital, vacant land, and post-development property so as to expropriate a certain ratio of pre-tax site value as well as to achieve neutrality. We find that the optimal taxation policy is to tax capital and subsidize properties before and after development. We also investigate how this optimal policy changes in response to changes in several exogenous forces related to demand and supply conditions of the real estate market.

Asset Price Spillover,Collateral and Crises: with an Application to Property Market Policy

This paper studies the impact of land supply elasticity and land use regulation. For sufficiently adverse shocks constrained entrepreneurs liquidate their assets for debt repayment. This effect can spillover to the residential property market. A crisis occurs when households are forced to default on their mortgages as well. While both converting costs and land use regulation tend to magnify the effect of adverse shock, the former generates an asymmetric effect between a positive and a negative shock on the land market, and the latter tends to raise the likelihood of a crisis, by raising the threshold value of liquidation.

Land Development: Risk, Return and Risk Management

We model and examine the financial aspects of the land development process incorporating the industry practice of preselling lots to builders through the use of option contracts as a risk management technique. Using contingent claims valuation, we are able to determine endogenously the land value, presale option value, credits spreads and the effects of presales on debt pricing and equity expected returns. We show that using presales options effectively shift market risk from the land developer to the builder. Results from the model are consistent with the high rates of return on equity observed in empirical surveys; they also suggest that developers may be justified in pursuing projects with substantially lower expected returns to equity when a large number of lots can be presold. Additionally, we show that presales reduce default risk dramatically for leveraged projects and can support a considerable reduction in the cost of construction financing. Large debt risk premiums are justified for highly levered projects, which helps explain the use of mezzanine financing in the land development industry to reduce expected default costs.

Why do firms repurchase stock to acquire another firm?

This study investigates firms that repurchase their stock to finance an acquisition. Since research shows that cash-financed acquisitions perform better than stock-financed acquisitions, why do firms that have available cash initiate the extra transactional step. I find these firms are well compensated for their efforts, especially in the long run. On average, these firms have negative abnormal returns prior to their repurchase announcements and thus may choose repurchasing to signal undervaluation. Furthermore, the stock acquisition step allows these firms to share risk, counteract the negative effects of dilution, and enjoy a tax advantage for their efforts.

Trading House Price Risk with Existing Futures Contracts

This paper examines the use of futures contracts to hedge residential real estate price risk. We examine whether existing futures contacts can effectively be used to offset volatility in national house prices. Little evidence of any simple systematic relation between national prices and futures prices is found. Since house prices are not easily replicated with a portfolio of existing futures contracts, a further implication is that the Chicago Mercantile’s introduction of a financial asset whose value reflects house prices will help complete the market. Nevertheless, the success of the CME’s new derivative contracts may be limited in light of state and regional house price correlations.

Securities Transaction Tax and Market Efficiency: Evidence from the Japanese Experience

This study examines the effect of transaction costs on the time series behavior of stock returns over a period surrounding the April 1989 changes in tax rates on securities transactions and capital gains in Japan. We find significant decreases in estimates of the first-order autocorrelation in returns for Japanese stocks listed in Japan, but no changes for Japanese stocks dually listed in the United States as American Depository Receipts (ADRs), which were not subject to the tax law change. We also find lower price basis between the ADRs and their underlying Japanese stocks. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that a reduction in transaction costs improves the efficiency of the price discovery process.

How do commodity futures respond to macroeconomic news?

This paper investigates the impact of seventeen US macroeconomic announcements on two broad and representative commodity futures indices. Based on a large sample from 1989 to 2005, we show that the daily price response of the CRB and GSCI commodity futures indices to macroeconomic news is state-dependent. During recessions, news about higher (lower) inflation and real activity lead to positive (negative) adjustments of commodity futures prices. In contrast, we find no significant reactions during economic expansions. We attribute this asymmetric response to the state-dependent interpretation of macroeconomic news. Our findings are robust to several alternative business cycle definitions.

Partial Interests in Recreational Property

Changing demographics, growing real incomes, and friendly tax laws underlie the continuing growth in demand for recreational real estate in the US. The market for recreational property has undergone a major transformation over the past decades, with the refinement and deepening of markets for partial property ownership vehicles. This paper represents the first to analyze the factors underlying the demand for partial ownership interests. It develops a theory of partial ownership demand that focuses on the roles of familiarity and location-specific human capital in mediating the consumption uncertainty associated with particular recreation locations. Using private data from a survey of partial ownership participants, the empirical analysis yields results consistent with the theory: factors associated with greater site-specific recreation price, like distance between the primary residence and the recreation site and frequency of visits per week, reduce the share of ownership demanded, while factors associated with lower consumption risk tend to increase the share of ownership demanded.

Can Space Syntax Help Us in Understanding the Intraurban Office Rent Pattern? Accessibility and Rents in Downtown Stockholm

The effect of accessibility upon rent is investigated for office properties located in Downtown Stockholm. Starting from the firm’s cost minimization problem, a translog hedonic model is derived. The results suggest the model has good predictive power in explaining the variation in the log of the rent. A negative rent gradient is obtained with a base approximately 90 m from the postulated focal point. It appears as if Space Syntax adds important information to the understanding of the intraurban office rent pattern.

Valuation of loss firms in a knowledge-based economy

Recent research in accounting has documented a substantial increase in the number of loss firms. Existing theories on the valuation of loss firms are based on adaptation/abandonment options or limited liability, assuming that these firms are operationally distressed. In this paper, we show that many loss firms do not fit this stereotype and identify the primary value drivers of this new type of loss firms. Our analysis helps resolve the puzzling negative relation between earnings and market value documented in prior research. Overall, our findings underscore the importance of “hidden assets” or intangibles in the study of loss firms.

Pricing Structure in Tokyo Metropolitan Land Markets and its Structural Changes: Pre-bubble,Bubble, and Post-bubble Periods

In this paper, we estimate hedonic price equations of Japanese commercial and residential land prices for a 25-year period and to investigate possible structural changes in these price equations. Our price equations are based on transaction prices, not appraised land values, of commercial land in Central Business Districts of Tokyo (Chiyoda Ward, Chuo Ward, and Minato Ward), and residential land of its suburb (Setagaya Ward). We find that price structure differs substantially among locations, reflecting differences in supplier pricing and end-user preferences. We also find significant structural changes in price structure, identifying pre-bubble, bubble and post-bubble periods.

Insurer's insolvency risk and tax deductions for the individual's net losses

Using the representative agent approach as in Kaplow (Am Econ Rev 82:1013–1017, 1992b), this paper shows that providing tax deductions for the individual’s net losses is socially optimal when the insurer faces the risk of insolvency. We further show that the government should adopt a higher tax deduction rate for net losses when the insurer is insolvent than when the insurer is solvent. Thus, tax deductions for net losses could be used to provide an insurance for individuals against the insurer’s risk of insolvency. These findings could also be used to explain why a government provides supplementary public insurance or government relief. Finally, we discuss that, if the individuals are heterogeneous in terms of loss severity, loss probability, or income level, providing a tax deduction for the individual’s net losses may not always achieve a Pareto improvement, and cross subsidization should be taken into consideration.

Information effects of dividends: Evidence from the Hong Kong market

The literature has suggested that earnings and earnings forecasts provide stronger signals than dividends about future performance of a firm. We test the information effects of simultaneous announcement of earnings and dividends in the Hong Kong market, distinguished by three interesting features (concentrated family-shareholdings, low corporate transparency, and no tax on dividends). Our results show significant share price reactions to unexpected earnings and dividend changes, but dividends appear to play a dominant role over earnings in pricing, a result contrary to findings in the literature. The signaling hypothesis works primarily for firms with earning increases, while the maturity hypothesis works mainly for firms with earnings declines.

The nature of listed real estate companies: property or equity market?

This paper addresses the question of whether shares of public real estate companies should be treated as real estate or as equity investments. Because theoretical considerations do not suffice for making such a classification, we empirically investigate correlation structures and cointegration relationships of private and public real estate and equity markets for the United States and the United Kingdom. Our results suggest that public real estate stocks show similarities to the general stock market with regard to short-term return co-movements. For long-term investment horizons, the interdependence between direct and securitized real estate is much stronger. However, in the latter case, real estate stocks substantially lead the private property markets.

Do Some People Work Harder than Others? Evidence from Real Estate Brokerage

The decision to work and its levels of intensity are estimated for the real estate brokerage industry where workers can set their own hours. A three-stage model of the brokerage labor market is presented with decisions made recursively between full- and part-time status, wage offers and hours worked. The application is to data from a cross-sectional survey of 6,842 real estate licensees in the United States for 1999. Conditional on self-selection, an expected wage for real estate licensees is estimated given skills and personal characteristics. That expected wage enters the supply-side equation for the number of hours worked. The findings indicate that skills such as education, experience and licensee status are related to higher wages, but there is a negative self-selection in wages: part-time workers have higher unmeasured skills. Schooling and experience decreases hours worked, consistent with increasing efficiency. The resulting labor supply elasticity with respect to the wage is 0.24.

Dividend taxation and corporate investment: a comparative study between the classical system and imputation system of dividend taxation in the United States and Australia

In recent times a number of countries have initiated some important tax reforms to eliminate the distortions of double taxation. In this context, Australia adopted a dividend imputation system in 1987, while the US employed the 1986 Tax Reform Act (TRA). The analysis in this paper examines the effects on the level of corporate capital investment, on proxies for corporate tax rates, financial leverage, liquidity, capital intensity and firm size after controlling for the tax reforms. The empirical results provide evidence that: (1) dividend imputation as introduced in Australia is an effective way to reduce the distortions caused by the traditional system of taxation. (2) Compared with the TRA, dividend imputation has been better able to positively stimulate corporate capital investment. (3) TRA effect on corporate investment is more pronounced in the US for firms having a net operating loss. (4) Individual tax rates play a role in corporate investment decisions in both the US and Australia.

House Prices and Bubbles in New Zealand

This paper studies actual (real) house prices relative to fundamental (real) house values in New Zealand for the period 1970–2005. Utilizing a dynamic present value model, we find disparities between actual and fundamental house prices in the early 1970s and 1980s and from 2000 to date. We model the bubble component that is related to fundamentals (the intrinsic component), making it possible to highlight whether a bubble still exists after that component is accounted for. We then analyze any remaining bubble to detect any momentum behavior. Much of the overvaluation of the housing market is found to be due to price dynamics rather than an overreaction to fundamentals.

Estimating Default Probabilities of CMBS Loans with Clustering and Heavy Censoring

This paper provides a comprehensive default estimation of commercial real estate loans with a complete commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) loan history database. Standard survival models assume that eventually every observation will experience the event. However, often there is a high proportion of censored observation in the sample. A mixture model is proposed to disentangle the probability of “long-term survivorship” and the timing of default occurrence. Loans within the same geographical area and property type tend to exhibit correlation in default incidence. A multilevel model is proposed to capture this correlation within and between clusters.

Disagreement over the persistence of earnings components: evidence on the properties of management-specific adjustments to GAAP earnings

We examine disagreement between management and Thomson Datastream over the persistence of earnings components. Using income statement and footnote disclosures, we identify the source and properties of disputed items. Disagreements typically reflect opaque reporting practices (for example, in the case of transitory operating items) and restrictive classification rules (for example, in the case of discontinued operations). Incremental and relative value relevance tests suggest that the majority of management-specific adjustments reflect appropriate classification of earnings components by insiders. Nevertheless, evidence consistent with strategic disclosure does emerge for a subset of management adjustments.

Universal Banking,Conflicts of Interest and Firm Growth

This paper studies the relationship between universal banking and firm performance. With 40 developing and developed countries, I find that the overall effect of universal banking on firm growth is negative. This suggests that the negative effect of conflicts of interest dominates the positive effect of economies of scale and scope in universal banking. However, in countries with stronger protection of creditors’ rights and higher information efficiency, conflicts of interest are less likely and the negative relationship between universal banking and firm growth is significantly weaker.