国际干散货航运市场供求及运价分析

文章从微观层面选择了影响干散货航运市场运力的需求、供给、运费(以运价指数代替)这三个方面出发,分析了近几年来国际干散货市场上它们各自的现状,通过一些数据做出图表进行说明,并根据运力预期数据,综合这些因素,得出了国际干散货航运市场的发展趋势预测。     

2011年3月中国公路货物运输市场价格指数

1、2011年3月份公路货物运输市场价格2011年3月份公路货物运输市场价格,见表1。2、20 11年3月份公路货物运输市场价格指数2011年3月份公路货物运输市场价格指数,见表2。3、2011年3月份运价指数波动分析2011年2月份受春节假期影响,运价水平波动较大,转至3月份,运价平稳中有     

我国企业参与干散货运费衍生品市场的战略性建议

2008年金融危机后,随着全球性的经济萎缩和运力供给的急速增长,国际海运市场日趋动荡,国际运费剧烈波动。鉴于运费衍生品市场的价格先导性,海运企业利用运费衍生品来摆脱被动承担运价损失的困境,并确保成本的稳定及收益的获得变得十分必要。随着近期国际远期运价协议FFA市场的波动溢出以及套期保值功能的强化,积极参与运费衍生品市场已成为国际海运企业把握市场、控制风险、保障自身收益并获取竞争力的重要途径。本文在深入研究国外运费衍生品市场现状及发展新趋势的基础上,从战略层面提出了我国海运企业参与干散货运费衍生品市场的具体建议。     

我国企业参与干散货运费衍生品市场的战略性建议北大核心

2008年金融危机后,随着全球性的经济萎缩和运力供给的急速增长,国际海运市场日趋动荡,国际运费剧烈波动。鉴于运费衍生品市场的价格先导性,海运企业利用运费衍生品来摆脱被动承担运价损失的困境,并确保成本的稳定及收益的获得变得十分必要。随着近期国际远期运价协议FFA市场的波动溢出以及套期保值功能的强化,积极参与运费衍生品市场已成为国际海运企业把握市场、控制风险、保障自身收益并获取竞争力的重要途径。本文在深入研究国外运费衍生品市场现状及发展新趋势的基础上,从战略层面提出了我国海运企业参与干散货运费衍生品市场的具体建议。     

2011年5月中国公路货物运输市场价格指数

1、2011年5月份公路货物运输市场价格2011年5月份公路货物运输市场价格，见表1。 2、2011年5月份公路货物运输市场价格指数2011年5月份公路货物运输市场价格指数，见表2。 3、2011年5月份运价指数波动分析2011年5月份运价水平较4月份运价有增长，低开高走，     

2010年11月中国公路货物运输市场价格指数

l、2010年11月份公路货物运输市场价格 2010年11月份公路货物运输市场价格，见表1。 2、2010年11月份公路货物运输市场价格指数 2010年11月份公路货物运输市场价格指数，见表2。 3、2010年11月份运价指数波动分析 2010年11月的综合运价指数从月初的较高水平平稳下降至月末的较低水平，整车、零担重货、零担轻货指数均以相同的趋势回落。具体来说，各类运价承接10月份月末的水平，     

2010年5、6月中国公路货物运输市场价格指数

1.2010年5月份公路货物运输市场价格2010年5月份公路货物运输市场价格见表1。2.2010年5月份公路货物运输市场价格指数2010年5月份公路货物运输市场价格指数,见表23.2010年5月份运价指数波动分析2010年5月的运价除整车运输外,其他价格均有明显下降,主要原因是由于车源充足,同时从南到北单向市场货量市场减少,     

2010年9、10月中国公路货物运输市场价格指数

1.2010年9月份公路货物运输市场价格 2010年9月份公路货物运输市场价格,见表1。 2.2010年9月份公路货物运输市场价格指数 2010年9月份公路货物运输市场价格指数,见表2。 3.2010年9月份运价指数波动分析 2010年9月的综合运价指数稳步上升,月初处于较低水平,月末已上升到64.0,处于较高水平。具体来说,整车、零担重货、零担轻货运价在9月份均有增长,特别在最后一周,     

BDI和CCFI原因分析及其走势发展

2018年7月至9月以来,波罗的海干散货指数(BDI)波动较大,但整体变化较小,降幅为1.8%。中国出口集装箱运价指数(CCFI)则呈缓慢上升趋势,增幅为1.5%左右。该变化是近几年航运指数的典型状态之一,该文通过阐述近两个月BDI和CCFI的走势特征,来分析目前航运业变化原因和走势变化,从而为目前航运企业发展提供一定的参考价值。     

中国野BDI冶指数唱响全球航运业

伴随着全球经济重心向亚太地区的转移,中国在全球货物运输市场中占据着越来越重要的地位,上海航交所继1998年推出了出口集装箱运价指数之后,于今年11月又推出了中国进口干散货运价指数(CDFI)和中国进口原油运价指数(CTFI).这一举措表明中国将有自己的“BDI”体系,能够更好地反映市场行情.     

住房流动性对房价指数的影响及其定量分析

目前中国城市住房市场不稳定程度较高,这不仅体现为房价的迅速变化,而且反映在交易量的大幅波动上,后者就是住房流动性的变化。有学者研究指出,以实际交易价格为基础的房价指数可能会低估住房市场的波动程度。为了更准确地把握住房市场的运行状态,本文借鉴美国MIT的相关技术,分析了住房流动性（交易活跃程度）对房价指数的影响,并尝试将流动性信息引入房价指数当中。我们发现,住房流动性对于房价指数有较大影响,且符合人们对于市场走势的直观判断,能够较好地反映市场转折点。     

The relationship between oil prices,the stock market and the exchange rate: Evidence from Mexico

This paper analyzes the variables of oil price, exchange rate and stock market index to explain how they interact with each other in the Mexican economy. The examined period includes monthly data from January 1992 to June 2017. A Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) is implemented that includes oil prices, the nominal exchange rate, the Mexican stock market index, and the consumer price index. Results indicate that the exchange rate has a negative and statistically significant effect on the stock market index; this indicates that an appreciation of the exchange rate is related to an increase in the stock market index. It is also found that the consumer price index has a positive effect on the exchange rate and a negative effect on the stock market index. The results also indicate that oil prices are statistically significant against the exchange rate, concluding that an increase in oil prices creates an appreciation of the exchange rate. In addition, the impulse-response functions show that the effects found tend to disappear over time.     

高油价下企业如何降低道路货物运输成本

近年来国内油价不断攀升,油价的上涨带动了国内各行业成本的持续增长,在涨价趋势中主要以汽油和柴油消耗为主的道路货物运输业受到了很大冲击,油价上调直接影响了道路货物运输业的成本和运价,同时产生了一定的行业和社会效应。文章以成品油涨价为背景,从企业自身出发,探讨了一些降低道路货物运输成本切实可行的措施,期望对企业在降低运输成本和提高行业竞争力方面有所帮助。     

城市房屋征收中公共权力的配置与控制——以权力为视角评《国有土地上房屋征收与补偿条例》

《国有土地上房屋征收与补偿条例》（以下简称《征收条例》）历经两次公开征求意见在社会公众翘首盼望中得以颁行,在我国法治建设和私权保护方面具有里程碑意义。与《城市房屋拆迁管理条例》（以下简称《拆迁条例》）相比,《征收条例》对城市房屋征收中公共权力的配置模式进行了全面调整,以征收权的行使为中心重新构建了一套权力分立、制约和控...     

中国外运服务创新模式研究——以河南分公司为例

入世后,我国货运代理市场进一步开放．货运代理面临新的竞争格局。外资船公司纷纷建立自己的货代公司或办事处,直接和全面地控制货流．参与市场竞争．逐步获得货代经营权,对河南的货代业也造成严重冲击。通过全面分析国内外国际货运代理的发展现状,分析了河南国际货运代理业存在的问题,论证了中国外运河南分公司服务创新模型的必要性,提出了货代企业在入世后的市场环境下进行服务创新的策略。     

Oil prices,stock returns,and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from China and the United States

Employing the diagonal BEKK model as well as the dynamic impulse response functions, this study investigates the time-varying trilateral relationships among real oil prices, exchange rate changes, and stock market returns in China and the U.S. from February 1991 to December 2015. We highlight several key observations: (i) oil prices respond positively and significantly to aggregate demand shocks; (ii) positive oil supply shocks adversely and significantly affect the Chinese stock market; (iii) oil price shocks persistently and significantly impact the trade-weighted US dollar index negatively; (iv) the US and China stock markets correlate positively just as the dollar index and the exchange rate does; (v) a significant parallel inverse relation exists between the US stock market and the dollar and between the China stock market and the exchange rate; and (vi) the Chinese stock market is more volatile and responsive to aggregate demand and oil price shocks than the US stock market in recent years.     

The role of the world’s major steel markets in price spillover networks: an analysis based on complex network motifs

In recent years, the international steel market has shown increasingly strong cross-regional correlation. To better understand the price trends of various markets, it is necessary to identify their inherent price spillovers. This paper combines a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity Baba–Engle–Kraft–Kroner (GARCH-BEKK) model and complex network motifs to explore the price fluctuations among international steel markets. The study selects steel markets in 12 countries and regions and uses daily data on import and export prices from January 2009 to September 2017 to analyze eight steel products. The results show that spillovers are associated with geographical location, market development, product type and status. Spillovers mostly occur between buyer’s markets; additionally, the Asian market, especially the East Asian market, is in most cases the recipient of spillover, whereas the European Union (EU) market is in most cases the sender of spillover effects. Developed markets have clear spillover effects on emerging markets, sheet steel products have clear spillover effects on profile steel products, and the prices of midstream and downstream products in the industrial chain are the most influenced. This paper examines international steel market relationships from the perspective of price transmission, and the results can help manage and prevent large-scale economic risks.

     

物流企业如何应对高油价

国际原油价格持续上涨,国内成品油价格也不断攀升,给国内的物流业带来了明显冲击。文章在分析油价上涨对物流成本、物流市场结构、物流竞争结构的影响的基础上,提出了面对高油价我们一方面应降低物流成本,缓解高油价带来的成本压力,另一方面可以通过提高运输价格、加强企业间的合作和发展绿色物流来提高国内物流企业竞争力,以应对高油价带来的影响。     

The influence of international oil price fluctuation on the exchange rate of countries along the “Belt and Road”

In recent years, the international crude oil price has become increasingly volatile. It influences the exchange rate changes of relevant countries through economic growth, price level, international balance of payments, and other channels. Such exchange rate fluctuations have caused certain risks for the development of China’s “Belt and Road” Initiative. This article analyzes the impact of oil price changes on the exchange rates of countries. Because the fluctuation of oil prices and exchange rates has shown the characteristics of multiple time scales, this study used the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method to obtain the long-cycle and short-cycle sequences of oil prices and the exchange rates of various countries, then analyzed the impact of oil price changes on exchange rates under different time scales. The results showed that oil price fluctuations have an impact on the exchange rate changes of countries along the “Belt and Road” under different time scales. However, this effect is asymmetric between oil-producing countries and non-oil-producing countries, and the transmission path of oil prices to exchange rates varies from cycle to cycle.     

China and international market integration: Evidence from the law of one price in the Middle East and Africa

We model market integration in the Middle East and Africa by analyzing price dispersion and testing the law of one price (LOP) on highly-comparable actual local retail prices of 135 goods and services across 23 countries in the region over the period of 1990–2016. Second-generation panel estimators are applied to four price benchmarks: Regional average, South Africa, China, and US prices. Cross-regional price dispersion diminishes considerably over time up to 2008, particularly for non-tradeables around China price. The test of LOP indicates the percentage of convergent prices is highest in China price benchmark, followed by US, South Africa, and regional average benchmarks. Direct estimation of the convergence speed confirms this order. Overall, the results show evidence of increasing market integration in Middle East and Africa but it appears to be driven by global forces and, especially, the rise of China as a new economic power. The results show that some emerging market economies, such as China, can step up and promote integration while traditional economic powerhouses, such as the USA and UK, disengage from international economic relations.