WTO服务贸易谈判的历程回顾与前瞻

2000年2月25日,WTO服务贸易理事会召开特别会议,开启了新回合服务贸易领域的谈判。2001年,服务贸易谈判被纳入多哈回合,成为多哈发展议程"一揽子协议"中的一部分。此后,服务贸易谈判经历了坎昆部长级会议的失败、2004年"七月框架协议"的达成,《香港部长会议宣言》的达成,多哈回合的中止与重启,2008年小型部长级会议的失败。全球金融危机时期,各国政府表现出强烈的尽快结束谈判的政治意愿。这一意愿目前仍未衰减,我们期待2011年包括服务贸易谈判在内的多哈回合的顺利结束。     

从农业政策范式的变化看多哈回合谈判的中止

持续五年之久的多哈回合全球贸易谈判的中止说明了农业谈判的困难重重。农业谈判背后所反映的恰恰是农业政策范式在不同国家间的彼此冲突和对立,但本文认为对依赖性农业政策范式的游离是不可改变的趋势。基于此,即便在多哈回合继续谈判时间尚不明朗的背景下,我们提出价格支持向脱钩收入支持的调整依然是各国农业支持具体措施变化的主要方向。     

国际贸易与环境关系问题研究综述

2001年12月WTO各成员国在多哈召开了新一轮贸易谈判，即“多哈回合”。这次又被称为“发展回合”（Development Round）的谈判为发展中国家发展贸易，实现增长提供了重要的机会。值得注意的是，在该回合中，有关贸易与环境的谈判被纳入议题。从而有可能削减发展中国家获得的贸易发展机会（Alan Oxley 2002）.     

多哈回合谈判止于何时

2001年11月14日，在卡塔尔多哈举行的世贸组织第四次部长级会议上启动了新一轮全球多边贸易谈判，即多哈回合，多哈回合谈判范围包括农业、非农产品市场准入、服务贸易、规则谈判、贸易与发展、争端解决、知识产权、贸易与环境问题等8个具体议题。但农业问题是“多哈回合”中最核心的内容，是解决其他议题的关键。     

多哈回合中止对世界经济未来发展的影响

2006年7月27日,WTO总理事会正式批准了总干事拉米日前提出全面中止多哈回合谈判的建议.至此,已经进行了五年之久的WTO新一轮多边贸易谈判陷入停滞,WTO遭遇了自成立以来的最大危机.     

多哈回合谈判中止：矛盾焦点、发展前景及其对中圈的影响

多哈谈判的中止意味着现行的多边贸易体制遭受到空前的挑战。本文在对多哈回合谈判中止的主要原因进行分析的基础上，重点就其对中国的影响展开讨论，并就未来多哈谈判前景进行预测。     

多哈回合谈判中止:矛盾焦点、发展前景及其对中国的影响

多哈谈判的中止意味着现行的多边贸易体制遭受到空前的挑战。本文在对多哈回合谈判中止的主要原因进行分析的基础上,重点就其对中国的影响展开讨论,并就未来多哈谈判前景进行预测。     

中国参与下一阶段多合回合谈判：策略与选择

多哈回合谈判虽然处于中止状态，但面对经济全球化潮流，各方恢复谈判的可能性依然较大。本文在对中国参与下一阶段多哈回合三大部门谈判情况进行分析的基础上，试图对中国参与谈判的策略，提出一定的政策建议。     

多哈回合谈判十年回顾之一：区域贸易协定透明度机制谈判的报告

世界贸易组织2001年11月在卡塔尔首都多哈召开部长级会议，正式发起多哈回合谈判。多哈回合是首轮以促进发展为使命的多边贸易谈判，也是发展中国家参与最多、贡献最大的一轮谈判。十年来，世贸组织发达成员和发展中成员举行过多次会议和磋商，但一直未能消除在农业和非农产品市场准入以及服务贸易等领域存在的严重分歧，致使谈判中断、恢复、再中断，数次错过“最后期限”。     

多哈回合谈判十年回顾之一 区域贸易协定透明度机制谈判的报告

世界贸易组织2001年11月在卡塔尔首都多哈召开部长级会议,正式发起多哈回合谈判。多哈回合是首轮以促进发展为使命的多边贸易谈判,也是发展中国家参与最多、贡献最大的一轮谈判。十年来,世贸组织发达成员和发展中成员举行过多次会议和磋商,但一直未能消除在农业和非农产品市场准入以及服务贸易等领域存在的严重分歧,致使谈判中断、恢复、再中断,数次错过"最后期限"。目前,已经历时十年的多哈回合再次面临严重危机。由于美国缺乏谈判诚意,在谈判时漫天要价,谈判中的分歧今年来不仅未能减少,反而更加尖锐。毋庸置疑,如果多哈谈判就此失败,冲击将会是灾难性的。世贸组织前总干事萨瑟兰表示,多哈回合若死亡,将严重打击整个多边贸易体系,是世贸组织的巨大灾难。他指出,现有出价能够使各方获得巨大利益,因此各方应该更加认真地对待谈判。2011年4月21日,世贸组织总干事拉米和各谈判组主席发布了关于多哈回合启动十年来各议题谈判的报告和现有谈判案文。拉米在报告中着重指出,由于成员们在非农部门减让问题上的严重分歧,2011年结束谈判已无可能。为此,我们选择了其中一些比较重要的案文和报告译出,案文中成员们之间的分歧按照惯例以方括号显示,案文的建议方用上标的形式标注。这些案文和报告是多哈回合谈判十年来的一个回顾,也为国内学者进行深入研究提供了一个基础。下面这份区域贸易协定透明度机制谈判案文是在2006年12月该机制临时决定基础上所做的修改,通过删除标记和方括号显示了世贸组织成员们目前的谈判立场。     

Going beyond Cancun: Realizing the development promise of the Doha agenda

The launch of a new trade round in Doha in November 2001 was a major breakthrough following the discord in Seattle in 1999. The Doha Round is the first set of multilateral trade negotiations in which the needs and interests of developing countries have been officially declared a priority and whose conclusion deemed essential. However, the failure of the Doha negotiations in Cancun in September 2003 was a major setback. The trade talks are now stalled in several policy domains vital to developing countries such as agriculture, non‐farm trade, access to patented drugs, special and differential treatment and dispute settlement, and in areas of interest to the developed countries such as the “Singapore issues” dealing with investment, competition, trade facilitation and government procurement This paper discusses the reasons behind the failure, its wider implications as well as the policies that member governments of the World Trade Organization (WTO) will need to make to move beyond Cancun.     

Impacts of the Doha Round on Brazilian,Chinese and Indian agribusiness

The central themes to be addressed during the Doha Round of the world trade negotiations are the reduction of the agricultural production and export subsidies and improved market access for agricultural and non-agricultural goods. The G-20 group wields enough power to press negotiations at the Doha Round toward lower agricultural trade barriers and production and export subsidies. The objective of this study is to determine the impacts of the Doha Round on the economies of Brazil, China, and India. The Global Trade Analysis Project's (GTAP) general equilibrium model and database (version 7) are used. The Doha Round scenarios simulated in this paper consider the WTO agricultural production and export subsidy reduction requirement, and the application of the Harbinson approach, and Swiss formula to reduce import tariffs. Brazil and China present the highest GDP growth rate varying from 0.4 % to 1.4%. India shows a negative GDP growth rate in all scenarios, except in that which replicates the Uruguay Round. The welfare gains are positive, but small, for Brazil, China and India. The GDP loss observed in the economies of the EU25 and the US may make it difficult to reach a trade agreement at the Doha Round.     

贸易自由化与环境保护的平衡——世界贸易组织框架下的环境保护机制探析

作为以促进贸易自由化为宗旨的国际组织,世界贸易组织在平衡贸易自由化与环境保护关系方面显得步履艰难。在制度设计上,世界贸易组织偏重于对贸易自由化的维护,而在案件审理实践中,争端解决机构则越来越顾及环境保护的要求。在新一轮的“多哈回合”中,各方对贸易与环境议题的争论和分歧较大,谈判的失败标志着世界贸易组织框架下的贸易和环境的利益平衡将面临着更多的挑战。     

Implementation and imbalance: dealing with hangover from the Uruguay Round

The Uruguay Round agreements impose bound obligations to implement,but provide only unbound promises of assistance—is therea legal solution within the WTO legal system, i.e. can implementationassistance be made a legal obligation? The author concludesthat the Doha negotiations on trade facilitation and on aidfor trade demonstrate that such a legal arrangement cannot beconstructed. This is not, however, a problem; the internationalcommunity has provided extensive trade-related assistance throughbilateral and multilateral development agencies. Regarding theoverall Uruguay Round imbalance (developing countries gave morethan they got), failure of the international community to acknowledgethat the imbalance stems in major part from the WTO agreementon intellectual property (TRIPS) has retarded a general making-up.     

Coherence and the WTO

Coherence between the WTO and the Bretton Woods Institutions(a formal WTO objective) has achieved some minor goals but hasbeen expensive in terms of direct costs and inefficiencies inpolicy-making and policy debate. The so-called Integrated Frameworkhas achieved relatively little and aid for trade has yet tobe fully established. There is little role for the WTO in developmentand aid policy other than its traditional job of facilitatingtrade growth, and so its role in aid-for-trade is unclear. Coherence,especially when interpreted as allowing developing countriesto avoid trade liberalization in the name of development, hasconfused and weakened the Doha Round of WTO negotiations.     

A Kiss of Life for the Withering Doha Round of the Multilateral Trade Negotiations?

Abstract

Notwithstanding the gallant intensions, the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations (MTNs) proved to be egregiously problem-prone. It went down in the history of multilateral trade as the first round to be suspended. Potsdam was the final link in this chain of breakdowns. While the G-8 leaders supported the DDA, their trade delegations did not seem to abide by the public pronouncements of their leaders. This article delves into the anatomy of this failure and points toward the salient factors that led to it. There is an imperious need for resuscitating the Doha Round and for the key players to be flexible and take some decisive steps forward. The round is too important for the community of trading economies to be allowed to collapse. Revival is a possible and credible objective. A two-stage revival process is suggested in this article.     

Explaining rising regionalism and failing multilateralism: consensus decision-making and expanding WTO membership

The beleaguered progress of the Doha Development Agenda of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) presents something of a puzzle for economic theory: if multilateralism is an effective forum for liberalisation (as it has been in the past), then why have the current round of talks faltered amid the proliferation of preferential trade agreements (PTAs)? This paper builds a ‘hub and spoke’ version of the Maggi (Am Econ Rev 89(1):190–213, 1999) model of trade negotiations to shows that the combination of the WTO single-undertaking and consensus decision-making principles with an expanded and more diverse membership can render multilateralism less desirable for hub countries than bilateralism. It is argued that these principles give spoke countries de facto veto power meaning that their threat point during WTO negotiations is a reversion to PTA negotiations between all parties. Accordingly, spoke countries with relatively less to gain from the WTO can use their veto power to extract gains from those that would benefit substantially. If an expanding WTO membership has increased the number of such countries, then the benefits of multilateralism versus regionalism from the perspective of hub counties may have been diminished to such an extent that they are no longer willing to wait for the conclusion of the Doha round before engaging in PTA negotiations.     

多哈回合谈判现状及我国的策略选择

“巴厘一揽子协定”是多哈回合谈判的“早期收获”,但因协定并未涉及分歧较大的议题,加之WTO谈判机制的弊端仍然存在,区域贸易主义又呈现蒸蒸日上的发展趋势,多哈回合谈判依然前途未卜.我国作为最大贸易国,应当积极参与WTO的规则制定,明确谈判立场,在充分考量利弊的基础上选择最优的策略应对多哈回合的每一议题.     

The Future of African Trade with China under Alternative Trade Liberalization Schemes

Abstract: Evidence is gradually being built up in Africa on the full extent and rapidly growing role and interest of China in Africa. The global trade integration under the Doha Round, which is considered as the channel for fostering outward‐oriented development and generates economic and social benefits, is expected to effect more African trade with China. Our results show that with an agreement for the Doha Round, China will achieve its dominance on global trade faster than in the baseline scenario where no agreement is expected to be signed. In the long term, this impressive growth in Chinese exports to Africa is not a real value added, as China is already taking the place of the other major trade players both in African markets as well as in the markets of other regions and countries. In other words, China is expected to achieve in 10 years (2010–2020) what initially was expected to be achieved in 20 years in case of no agreement under the Doha Round, where a simple linear estimation on the evolution of Chinese exports is carried out. Our results also show that even in the case where China will offer more market access for African countries, the situation will not improve much for most of them. The reason is that Africa is still suffering from small productive capacities and a low level of diversification of its economy.     

WTO农业谈判囚徒困境的成因及启示

作为导致多哈回合谈判破裂以及多哈议程被迫中断的主要原因,WTO农业贸易自由化问题上的分歧昭示了多哈谈判利益博弈的复杂与艰难。农业议题的高度敏感性、欧美农业经济历史包袱沉重和政治利益集团的干扰、发展中国家的崛起以及传统谈判思维和方式局限加大了WTO农业谈判利益聚合的难度。当前,我国应当力主WTO农业谈判的实际影响力和中国话语权,加快农业产业化和产业安全体系建设步伐,为建构公正合理的国际农业贸易利益平衡机制贡献智慧和力量。