Current Account Imbalances and Real Exchange Rates in the Euro Area*

Global current account imbalances have been one of the focal points of interest for policymakers during the last few years. Less attention has been paid, however, to the diverging current account balances of the individual euro area countries. In this paper we consider the dynamics of current account adjustment and the role of real exchange rates in current account determination in the EMU countries. After controlling for the effects of income growth, we find the relationship between real exchange rates and current accounts to be substantial in size and subject to nonlinear effects. We find that real exchange rates can offer further insights, beyond the effects of the income catch‐up process, relevant to current account determination in the EMU.     

Testing a theoretical model of mortgage demand on UK data

This study explores whether the long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis holds for selected real exchange rates from Turkish economy during the period 1982M1–2003M12. In addition to conventional unit root tests, five different unit root test procedures have been applied including efficient point-optimal tests, extended M tests and GLS-detrended variants of DF tests, to four monthly real exchange rate series defined in terms of both producer and consumer price indices. The countries analysed are the USA, the UK, Germany and Italy which are major trade partners of Turkey. Mixed evidence is found for the long-run PPP hypothesis when real exchange rate is defined in terms of German DM and Italian Lira. However, the empirical analysis reveals that the PPP hypothesis holds strongly in the long-run for the UK£ and US$ based real exchange rates series using either PPI or CPI. In corroboration with other studies in the literature, the bias correlated half-life estimates suggest relatively faster speeds of adjustment supporting the view that the deviations from the PPP rate dissipate rather quickly for relatively high inflation countries.     

Fourier nonlinear quantile unit root test and PPP in Africa

We test the PPP hypothesis in 29 African countries using a newly developed nonlinear Quantile unit root test with a Fourier function which accounts for smooth breaks. Simulation indicates that the proposed new test has higher power than the conventional Quantile unit root test as proposed by Koneker and Xiao (2004). Our empirical results provide support for the PPP hypothesis in 21 out of 29 African countries, a unique discovery using their real effective exchange rates. It appears that incorporating Fourier function to nonlinear Quantile unit root test gets us closer and closer to solving the PPP puzzle in Africa.     

Asymmetry dynamics in real exchange rates: New results on East Asian currencies

This paper provides new evidence on the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis in six East Asian countries. Based on nonlinear unit root tests, we discovered that the results are broadly consistent with the fact that real exchange rates (RERs) follow a nonlinear mean reversion process. We presented new evidence that the adjustment towards the PPP parity is asymmetric (LSTAR process) above and below the equilibrium value in all but one case — the Malaysian ringgit (MYR). The empirical results suggest that it is important that the conventional tests of PPP be amended to take account of asymmetries in the adjustment process in RERs.     

Reexamining the PPP hypothesis: A nonlinear asymmetric heterogeneous panel unit root test

In this study, we re-examine the PPP hypothesis in the light of the new developments in the unit root testing literature. The recent theoretical findings have pointed out that the real exchange rate series exhibit asymmetric nonlinear behavior. A unit root test applied to analyze the PPP hypothesis therefore, should also take into account this asymmetry inherent in the real exchange rate. Different unit root tests that consider the presence of these data features have been developed in the time series literature. However, a true attempt to test the PPP hypothesis should take a panel data approach. To this end, we propose a nonlinear heterogeneous panel unit root test where the alternative hypothesis allows for symmetric or asymmetric exponential smooth transition autoregressive nonlinearity and provide its finite sample properties. We apply our test to the real exchange rates of the 15 European Union countries against the US dollar. While the results of the linear and symmetric nonlinear heterogeneous panel unit root tests are against the PPP hypothesis, the asymmetric nonlinear heterogeneous panel test that we propose gives support for the PPP hypothesis as expected. Therefore, the conclusions drawn from the linear panel unit root tests or the nonlinear panel unit root tests that do not take asymmetry into account might be misleading.     

The real exchange rate and the black market exchange rate in developing countries

This article tests for the validity of the Purchasing power parity (PPP) theory using both the black market and the official exchange rates for panels with cross sectional dependency. The test is conducted using a newly developed, nonlinear IV panel unit root test that properly handles cross-sectional dependency for thirty-seven developing countries. We find that the null of joint unit root hypothesis is rejected for the whole panel, using the black market exchange rate, and for sub-panels of African and high inflation countries, using either exchange rate. The black market-based real exchange rates are, therefore, shown to provide stronger evidence for the purchasing power parity theory than do the official rates. This finding is consistent with the observation that black market exchange rates better represent market forces and thus are more relevant when testing for the validity of the PPP theory in developing countries.     

Measuring international competitiveness: experience from East Asia

This paper uses a new measure of real exchange rates as an indicator of international competitiveness. This new measure involves defining all prices and exchange rates on an appropriately weighted basket of currencies rather than a single currency. The measure is applied to the data for Japan, Korea, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. For comparison purposes, we calculate real exchange rates based on purchasing power parity (PPP) for these countries. To check for the relative performance of the two measures, cointegration tests are employed. The results indicate that the new measure tends to be closely related with the export growth for the sample countries, while the PPP-based measure is not. Moreover, the PPP-based real exchange rates tend to understate the measures of competitiveness for these countries. This result has important implications in terms of the levels of these countries' exchange rates as well as the well-known Balassa hypothesis.     

Panel asymmetric nonlinear unit root test and PPP in Africa

This study revisits purchasing power parity (PPP) theory for 20 African countries using panel asymmetric nonlinear unit root test proposed by Emirmahmutoglu and Omay (2014), through the sequential panel selection method of Chortareas and Kapetanios (2009). While standard panel unit root tests fail to support the PPP, the empirical results from panel asymmetric nonlinear unit root test do support the PPP. However, additional tests reveal that support in all 20 African countries is mostly due to stationarity of the real effective exchange rates of Ghana and Rwanda where the adjustment process towards equilibrium is nonlinear and asymmetric.     

Do real exchange rates really follow threshold autoregressive or exponential smooth transition autoregressive models?

Nonlinear models, especially threshold autoregressive [TAR] and exponential smooth transition autoregressive [ESTAR] classes, are widely applied for modeling real exchange rates in order to examine the validity of purchasing power parity [PPP]. Even though the nonlinear models are theoretically well-motivated, some of the recent findings cast doubts on their relevance for real exchange rates. In particular, the nonlinear models do not necessarily yield improved out-of-sample forecasts over linear models and add little value in resolving the well-documented PPP puzzle. Utilizing a nonparametric entropy measure of dependence proposed by Granger et al. (2004), we show, in this study, that the real exchange rates from four major countries had exhibited quite strong nonlinear serial dependence, which linear autoregressive models fail to replicate. Furthermore, the nonlinear TAR and ESTAR models estimated for the real exchange rates also have some difficulty in generating significant serial dependence structure actually observed in the data. Overall, other nonlinear models than the currently entertained TAR and ESTAR should be considered to study the dynamics of the real exchange rates.     

Non-linear quantile unit root test and PPP: more evidence from Africa

It is now a common practice to establish stationarity of the real exchange rate as a sign of purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis. In this article, we consider the real effective exchange rates of 29 African countries. When we apply conventional linear unit root tests, we find support for the PPP in eight countries. However, when we shift to the newly introduced non-linear quantile unit root test, support for the PPP increases to 15 countries.     

Testing nonlinearities in economic growth in the OECD countries: an evidence from SETAR and STAR models

This study estimates the Self Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR) and Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models and examines the nonlinear and regime switching dynamics of economic growth for a set of 10 OECD countries. The null of linearity in SETAR model is tested using the recursive polynomial F test of Tsay and the bootstrap based supremum, average and exponential average Lagrange Multiplier (LM) tests of Hansen. The F test of Tsay rejects the null of linearity for all the countries, except Spain and Switzerland. The SETAR model of Hansen reinforces the evidence and suggests the rejection of linear model. The STAR model rejects the null of linearity against STAR nonlinearity for all the countries, except Denmark and Switzerland. The sequential F tests for the conditional nulls suggest the LSTAR nonlinearity for Australia, Belgium, France, Sweden and UK, and the ESTAR nonlinearity for Canada, Spain and the USA.     

Parity reversion in the Asian real exchange rates: new evidence from the local-persistent model

This article investigates the time-series properties of 13 Asian real exchange rates (RERs) vis-à-vis the US dollar. The half-life point estimates drawn from the local-persistent model are all less than 2 years, with a finite upper bound. There is no evidence to indicate that the Asian financial crisis has altered the speed of the purchasing power parity (PPP) adjustments. We find that the persistence of RERs over the last three decades remains unchanged in majority of the cases. Given the fairly rapid speed of adjustments and their corresponding confidence intervals, we conclude that the PPP puzzle does not exist in these countries.     

The behavior of Turkish exchange rates: A panel data perspective

This paper investigates the behavior of Turkish exchange rates within the context of purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis by means of recent developments in the panel unit root testing procedures for ten Turkish real exchange rates during January 2002–May 2012. The unit root test which accounts for nonlinearity, smooth structural shifts, and cross-section dependency supports that PPP hypothesis holds for Eurozone and European countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom), while it does not hold for non-European trading partners (Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and USA). From the empirical results, we can conclude that PPP hypothesis holds in the countries which have the free trade agreement, while it is violated in the countries in which there are trade barriers and greater distance. The findings therefore provide policy implications for Turkey in determining equilibrium exchange rates with her major trading partners.     

Purchasing power parity revisited: evidence from old and new tests for an organisation for economic co-operation and development panel

The objective of this article is to study long-run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for a panel of 21 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from the end of the Bretton Woods era by applying a wide range of the econometric techniques available. This will allow us to present a comprehensive up to date examination of the empirical validity of PPP, covering the weak and strong versions of the hypothesis with individual and panel analysis, including the absence or presence of cross-dependency, the linear or nonlinear behaviour of the real exchange rates and the degree of persistence. Overall, the results provide evidence in favour of PPP.     

GLS detrending-based unit root tests in nonlinear STAR and SETAR models

We extend GLS detrending procedure to testing for unit roots against STAR and SETAR alternatives. Monte Carlo simulations and applications to DM/Yen real exchange rates demonstrate that GLS detrending-based nonlinear unit root tests are more powerful than OLS detrending-based counterparts.     

Quantile unit root test and the PPP in Africa

In this study, we apply the Quantile unit root test and revisit the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) in 20 African countries using real effective exchange rates over the period 1971Q1 to 2012Q4. While traditional unit root tests fail to reject unit root hypothesis in most of the countries, results from Quantile unit root test reject unit root null hypothesis in Ghana, Mauritius, Niger, South Africa, and Togo, providing support for the PPP at least in these five countries. We further estimate the half-life based on Quantile autoregressive (QAR) model to be about 4.57–7.96 quarters (1–2 year).     

The Behaviour of Real Exchange Rates: The Case of Japan

This study examines the convergence rate of mean reversion by estimating the half‐lives of sectoral real exchange rates using an extensive product price panel for Japan (with the USA as the numéraire). We find that the half‐lives of sectoral real exchange rates are remarkably distorted when the grouped half‐life is measured inappropriately and the cross‐sectional dependence and potential trend breaks are ignored. After taking account of these problems, the bias‐corrected half‐life for all goods is as low as 3.00 years, close to the bottom of the consensus view of 3 to 5 years. Moreover, the bias‐corrected half‐life of mean reversion is 2.40 years for traded goods, and only approximately half that for non‐traded goods. Finally, our findings also support the view that small‐sample bias correction is critical for half‐life estimations.     

Removal of farm subsidies in a regional economy: a computable general equilibrium analysis

There are a number of studies that examine the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis. The empirical findings from the extant literature for the PPP hypothesis are mixed. This article applies univariate and panel Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to real exchange rates for 15 Asian countries. The univariate LM unit root tests find evidence of PPP for two-thirds of the sample. The results from the panel LM unit root test support long-run PPP for the Asian countries in the sample. The results from the LM panel unit root tests differ from those of existing panel unit root tests of PPP for Asian countries that have not allowed for the existence of structural breaks.     

Smooth structural breaks and the stationarity of the yen real exchange rates

This article examines and solves an interesting paradox in the literature that the tests for purchasing power parity (PPP) based on the yen real exchange rates (RERs) refute the PPP hypothesis more often than those with other major currency-based RERs, and the evidence is sensitive to the sample period used. Using a new empirical methodology accounting for both nonlinearity and multiple smooth temporary breaks in the data, we show that the puzzling finding is due to the failure to take into account the long but temporary large rise and fall in the yen RERs. The results illustrate that the yen RERs in the post-Bretton Woods period are likely mean reverting with linear or nonlinear adjustment toward large, long swing type of infrequent smooth temporary changes around constant equilibrium values, supporting the validity of PPP and resolving the paradox.     

ARE ASIA‐PACIFIC REAL EXCHANGE RATES STATIONARY? A REGIME‐SWITCHING PERSPECTIVE

This paper tests for long‐run purchasing power (PPP) among nine Asia‐Pacific countries. Non‐stationarity of the real exchange rate is tested within a Markov regime‐switching framework. Two new concepts of PPP are defined that allow for real exchange behaviour to switch between stationary and non‐stationary regimes (partial PPP) or between stationary regimes of differing degrees of persistence (varied PPP). The results indicate that each country is characterized by at least one stationary regime. Indeed, five countries are characterized by two such regimes. Further analysis indicates that the Asian crisis of 1997 gave mixed impetus to the achievement of long‐run PPP.