CROSS‐SECTIONAL VARIATION IN INDIVIDUALS' EARNINGS INSTABILITY

There has been considerable recent interest in earnings instability—the variability of workers' earnings around their expected earnings paths. While previous work has measured trends in instability, often to illuminate trends in inequality, this paper investigates the variation across workers. Data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics reveal considerable differences in earnings instability across demographic and occupational characteristics, generally in accordance with prior expectations. These results can also be used to develop a person‐specific measure of instability for use in behavioral studies, and it is shown that the resulting metric correlates strongly with several decisions that are plausibly influenced by earnings risk.     

The Evolution of Individual Male Earnings in Great Britain: 1975–95

I study the dynamic structure of male wages in Great Britain using the New Earnings Survey Panel from 1975–95. Computing auto-covariances of individual wages by cohort I find evidence of a permanent component of earnings that increases over the life cycle and a highly persistent, serially correlated transitory component. In addition, the estimated variances of both these components have risen over this period, each explaining about half the rise in inequality. Using individual's occupation at age 22, I split the sample into four skill groups. I find some differences across these groups, with the rise in the permanent variance most important for the manual groups.     

Factor Components of Inequality: A Cross‐Country Study

This paper uses data from the Luxembourg Income Study to examine some of the forces that have driven changes in household income inequality over the last three decades of the twentieth century. We decompose inequality for six countries (Canada, Germany, Norway, Sweden, the U.K., and the U.S.) into the three sources of market income (earnings, property income, and income from self‐employment) and taxes and transfers. Our findings indicate that although changes in the distribution of earnings are an important force behind recent trends, they are not the only one. Greater earnings dispersion has in some cases been accompanied by a reduction in the share of earnings which dampened its impact on overall household income inequality. In some countries the contribution of self‐employment income to inequality has been on the rise, while in others, increases in inequality in capital income account for a substantial fraction of the observed distributional changes.     

SHORT‐RUN AND LONG‐RUN IMPLICATIONS OF ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION ON FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

Opposing theoretical arguments exist regarding the effect of environmental regulation on financial performance. Some studies argue that environmental regulation constrains firms' abilities to exploit revenue‐enhancing or cost‐reducing opportunities. Other studies, representing the Porter hypothesis, argue that environmental regulation motivates firms to innovate, which ultimately improves financial performance. Although much of the debate focuses on long‐run effects, there are also important short‐run effects. This study provides empirical evidence regarding the short‐run and long‐run effects of Clean Water Act regulation on financial performance. To generate this evidence, we examine the effect of permitted wastewater discharge limits, on the return on sales, using panel data on publicly owned firms in the chemical manufacturing industries. We find that Clean Water Act regulation improves financial performance in both the short run and the long run with a stronger effect in the long run. These results suggest that some net benefits may be realized during a short‐run transition to comply with a tighter permitted discharge limit, with additional benefits accruing to the firm in the long run because the firm has more time to innovate. (JEL K23, L25, L51, L65, Q52)     

The technological determinants of long‐run inequality

I explore the effect of skill‐biased technological change and unbiased technological progress on long‐run inequality using a theoretical model in which the supply of skilled and unskilled workers is endogenous. The main assumption of the model is that young agents can finance their education and become skilled workers by borrowing against their future income on an imperfect credit market. I show that whenever the rate of unbiased technological progress is sufficiently high there is no steady‐state inequality, independent of the degree of skill bias. If instead the rate of unbiased technological progress is low, then the long‐run skill premium increases with the technological skill bias. Therefore, similarly to the short run, in the long run higher technological skill bias may cause higher inequality. However, contrary to the short run, in the long run unbiased technological progress is more important than technological skill bias in determining inequality. I also discuss how the efficiency of the educational technology and the degree of financial development affect long‐run inequality.     

EARNINGS INEQUALITY IN GREAT BRITAIN 1975–90: THE ROLE OF AGE

This paper is concerned with the growing earnings dispersion among British men. The study is based on unit record data drawn from the New Earnings Survey. It is found that increases in inequality within age groups account for most of the rise in earnings inequality overall. Occupation too is a significant explanation of growing inequality among workers, but the major part of increased inequality within age groups remains unexplained.     

Changing income inequality: A distributional paradigm for Canada

This paper examines the major changes in income inequality in Canada since the 1970s and collects them as a distributional paradigm for Canada. It focuses on labour market changes in terms of shares of workers and earnings shares for lower earners, middle‐class workers and higher earners in a flexible general framework. Polarization of full‐time workers, loss of middle‐class earnings share and increase in a higher earnings gap are highlighted. Changing returns to human capital, role of demographics and cohort effects and declining labour share are examined. The paper also reviews evidence of changing economic mobility and estimating the role of inequality of opportunity.     

OUTPUT–EMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIP ACROSS SECTORS: A LONG‐ VERSUS SHORT‐RUN PERSPECTIVE

This paper investigates the nature of the output–employment relationship by using the Turkish quarterly data for the period 1988–2008. Even if we fail to find a long‐run relationship between aggregate output and total employment, there are long‐run relationships for the aggregate output with non‐agricultural employment and sectoral employment levels for seven of nine sectors that we consider. However, a further investigation for the output and employment relationship within a short‐run perspective does not reveal statistically significant relationships for either total employment or non‐agriculture employment, or eight of the nine sectors that we consider. Although there are various long‐run relationships between output and employment, the short‐run links between demand and employment are weak. The various implications of this for the economy and the labour market are discussed. As a result, maintaining high levels of output in the long‐run creating demand is essential for employment generation.     

ON‐THE‐JOB SEARCH,PRODUCTIVITY SHOCKS,AND THE INDIVIDUAL EARNINGS PROCESS*

Individual labor earnings observed in worker panel data have complex, highly persistent dynamics. We investigate the capacity of a structural job search model with on‐the‐job search, wage renegotiation by mutual consent, and i.i.d. productivity shocks to replicate salient properties of these dynamics, such as the covariance structure of earnings, the evolution of individual earnings mean, and variance with the duration of uninterrupted employment, or the distribution of year‐to‐year earnings changes. Structural estimation of our model on a 12‐year panel of highly educated British workers shows that our simple framework produces a dynamic earnings structure that is remarkably consistent with the data.     

Intergenerational Mobility under Private vs. Public Education*

Intergenerational earnings mobility is analyzed in a model where human capital is produced using schooling and parental time. In steady states more mobile societies have less inequality, but in the short run higher mobility may result from an increase in inequality. Starting from the same inequality, mobility is higher under public than under private education. A rise in income shocks, for example due to increased returns to ability, or a switch from public to private schooling both increase inequality. However, increased shocks raise mobility in the short run and do not affect it in the long run, whereas an increased role for private schooling reduces mobility in both the short and long run. That these differences may help to identify the source of changes in inequality, and other real‐world implications, are illustrated in a brief discussion of time trends and cross‐country differences.     

LONG‐RUN VERSUS SHORT‐RUN PERSPECTIVES ON CONSUMER SCHEDULING: EVIDENCE FROM A REVEALED‐PREFERENCE EXPERIMENT AMONG PEAK‐HOUR ROAD COMMUTERS

Earlier studies on scheduling behavior have mostly ignored that consumers have more flexibility to adjust their schedule in the long run than in the short run. We introduce the distinction between long‐run choices of travel routines and short‐run choices of departure times, using data from a real‐life peak avoidance experiment. We find that participants value travel time higher in the long‐run context, supposedly because changes in travel time can be exploited better through the adjustment of routines. Schedule delays are valued higher in the short run, reflecting that scheduling restrictions are typically more binding in the short run.     

Earnings inequality and the business cycle

Economists have long viewed recessions as contributing to increasing inequality. However, this conclusion is largely based on data from a period in which inequality was increasing over time. This paper examines the connection between long-run trends and cyclical variation in earnings inequality. We develop a model in which cyclical and trend inequality are related, and find that in our model, recessions tend to amplify long-run trends, i.e. they involve more rapidly increasing inequality when long-run inequality is increasing, and more rapidly decreasing inequality when long-run inequality is decreasing. In support of this prediction, we present evidence that during the first half of the 20th century, when earnings inequality was generally declining, earnings disparities indeed appeared to fall more rapidly in downturns, at least among workers at the top of the earnings distribution.     

Within‐firm wage inequality and firm‐level exports

This paper analyzes changes in within‐firm inequality of hourly wages arising from export shocks to exporting firms in Denmark. We provide causal evidence that export demand shocks increase within‐firm inequality. Decomposing overall inequality into within and between components for occupational and educational groups, the results show that exports lead to a significant increase in within‐group wage inequality but do not affect the between‐group component. We develop a partial equilibrium model, featuring heterogeneous workers, which rationalizes these observations and shows how export demand shocks induce a complementarity effect, leading to increases in wage inequality within firms.     

EARNINGS INEQUALITY, LABOUR SUPPLY AND SCHOOLING IN HUSBAND–WIFE FAMILIES

This paper describes the association between market work and earnings inequality across families over the life cycle and over calendar time with special attention to the different experiences of college‐educated and high‐school‐educated people. A concise and effective accounting framework is developed that allows for an assessment of the effect of the growing market employment of married women on family earnings inequality. Applying this framework to pseudo‐panel data from successive Current Population Surveys indicates that the increase in wives' employment has diminished the growth in family earnings inequality especially for well‐educated couples. Inferences about the level and change in earnings inequality depend on the degree of labor market attachment of the people studied especially in the case of wives.     

Earnings dynamics of men and women in Finland: permanent inequality versus earnings instability

I decompose the earnings variance of Finnish male and female workers into its permanent and transitory components using the approach of Baker (J Labor Econ,15:338–375, 1997) and Haider (J Labor Econ, 19:799–836, 2001) in the spirit of scientific replication. I find that the increasing earnings inequality of men and women is driven by both the transitory and permanent components of earnings. In addition, I find considerable differences in the earnings dynamics of men and women, that have been largely neglected in previous studies of earnings dynamics. The inequality among men is dominated by the permanent component. Conversely, permanent and transitory components are of comparable magnitudes to women. As a corollary, men experience more stable income paths but display larger permanent earnings differences. Women, on the other hand, face more unstable earnings profiles but show smaller permanent differences in earnings.     

ADDICTIVE DRUG USE MANAGEMENT POLICIES IN A LONG‐RUN ECONOMIC MODEL*

A model of illicit, addictive drug use is proposed when users have foresight. Impacts of drug use penalties, penalties on drug use‐related crime, support for drug user rehabilitation as well as the effects of health‐related, harm‐minimisation policies are analysed. In the short run, government policies impact only on the drug use intensities of existing addicted and casual users. Longer term policy‐induced user‐cost changes impact on new user and addict numbers through their effect on recruitment into addiction and quit dynamics. Effects of policies on user numbers, usage intensities and impacts on long‐run social costs are analysed over this long‐term horizon. The model provides a setting for analysing the long‐run effects of illicit drug management policies on the social costs of illicit drug use and allows assessment of drug use abstinence and harm minimisation policy tradeoffs.     

Informality and Long‐Run Growth

One of the most salient features of developing economies is the existence of a large informal sector. In this paper, we use quantitative theory to study the dynamic implications of informality on wage inequality, human capital accumulation, child labor, and long‐run growth. Our model can generate transitory informality equilibria or informality‐induced poverty traps. Its calibration reveals that the case for the poverty‐trap hypothesis arises: although informality serves to protect low‐skilled workers from extreme poverty in the short run, it prevents income convergence between developed and developing nations in the long run. Then we examine the effectiveness of different development policies to exit the poverty trap. Our numerical experiments show that using means‐tested education subsidies is the most cost‐effective single policy option. However, for longer time horizons, or as the economy gets closer to the poverty trap threshold, combining means‐tested education and wage subsidies is even more effective.     

Motivation crowding‐out and green‐paradox‐like outcomes

We analyze the effectiveness of environmental policy in a framework in which households’ utility is determined by both private and social components, representing their extrinsic and intrinsic motivations to undertake green actions, respectively. Environmental policy, in the form of a subsidy aiming to incentivize the adoption of a green technology, on the one hand, directly increases households’ extrinsic motivation, while, on the other hand, indirectly decreases their intrinsic motivation. We show that, provided that the indirect effect dominates, the policy leads to crowding‐out of intrinsic motivation which ultimately undermines the effectiveness of the policy itself. Specifically, despite its positive effect on environmental outcomes in the short run, the policy will lead to a deterioration in long‐run environmental outcomes, giving rise to a reverse green‐paradox‐like outcome. Moreover, even in the case in which the direct effect dominates, provided that the indirect effect is large enough, the policy will generate a deterioration in short‐run environmental outcomes. These results clearly suggest that the optimal design of environmental policy is particularly complicated since it requires to take into account also its effects on intrinsic motivation.     

A NEW PICTURE OF SWEDISH EARNINGS INEQUALITY: PERSISTENT AND TRANSITORY COMPONENTS, 1960–1990

Using a large individual longitudinal database, I decompose the cross-sectional variance of male annual earnings in Sweden between 1960 and 1990 into persistent and transitory components. The persistent variance displays a downward trend during the whole sample period, but with the rate of decline more rapid up until the early 1980s than afterwards. The transitory variance has increased from 1960 until the early 1970s, decreased slightly until the late 1970s, and then risen again during the second half of the 1980s. An important lesson from these results concern the interpretation of the rise in cross-sectional inequality observed after the 1983 breakdown of centralized bargaining in Sweden. While it has often been presumed that this growth reflected increased returns to skills, this study shows that it was in fact due to increased transitory earnings fluctuations.     

Review Essay on Economics for the Common Good

The initial stage of labor market activity for young adults influences their labor market engagement and earnings profiles over their life cycle. I examine earnings inequality among young adults in a dynamic setting. Education, marital status, race are contributors to the observed earnings inequality. Earnings equalization is observed in the long run, and the proportion of earnings inequality attributed to education, marital status, and race is found to be significant.