当前我国国债市场存在的主要问题及对策建议

内1981年重新恢复发行吲债至今,我国国债市场已历经了近30年的发展历程.目前,我国国债市场已初具规模,市场化程度不断提高,但与成熟市场同家相比还存在差距,在国债市场的法律基础和监管体系、一级市场、二级市场以及财政政策与货币政策在国债市场上的协调配合等方面都存在着亟待解决的问题.对此,笔者提出了加快出台<国债法>,明确国债市场的主管部门;扩大国债发行规模,提高发行频率,完善定价机制;建立统一互联的国债市场体系,提高二级市场流动性,推出相关金融衍生产品,促进国债收益率曲线的构建和完善;推进储蓄吲债的利率市场化,用国债取代央行票据作为中央银行公开市场操作的主要工具等政策建议.     

论国债二级市场的有效运作

1998年以来,我国实行积极的财政政策,国债余额到2005年底已超过3万亿元,投资于基础设施建设,扩大了国内需求,拉动了经济增长。今后一段时期内,国家将继续增加国债的发行。国债二级市场已经成为关系国民经济发展的一个重要因素。要进一步发展完善国债二级市场,就必须要解决一些问题,如确定适当规模、合理搭配品种、提高流动性等。这对国债功能的发挥、积极财政政策效用的发挥都起着积极的作用。论文最后对完善国债二级市场,实现国债二级市场的有效运作提出了建议。     

欧美国债市场做市商制度分析与比较

考察国外债券市场发展的实践,我们发现做市商制度是活跃国债市场不可缺少的因素,起着举足轻重的作用.目前,我国银行间债券市场虽然也存在做市商制度,但是有行无市的困扰一直存在,形同虚设.本文重点对美国国债市场和欧洲MTS市场的做市商制度进行介绍,以期对我国国债市场做市商制度的发展和完善起到一定的借鉴作用.     

发展国债市场 推进财政政策与货币政策的协调

我国自1998年以来一直坚持实行积极的财政政策,同时,中央银行实施稳健的货币政策,满足了扩大内需、发展经济的货币需求。但是,由于体制转轨过程中存在的制度建设滞后,金融体制改革有待深化和完善等原因,我国的国债市场也还存在一些不可忽视的问题。江西财经大学严武教授分析了我国国债市场目前存在的问题并指出发展国债市场是协调财政政策与货币政策的市场基础。我国应从确定适度国债规模、合理运用国债资金、深化国债的市场化改革等方面入手来发展和完善国债市场,以更好地发挥国债对财政政策与货币政策的协调配合作用。     

国债熊市中的思考

国债市场是金融市场的重要组成部分。本文通过对国债市场历史的回顾和现状分析,在市场定位、风险意识、制度建设等方面对当前国债熊市进行分析,并就国债市场的发展提出了相应的改进思路。     

世纪门槛的跨越——评《大突破:世纪门槛的中国金融改革》

在改革开放２０周年之际的１９９８年,我国的金融改革取得了重大突破———在金融机构体系建设上,新成立了中央金融工作委员会,中国人民银行跨省区设立九大分行,银行、保险、证券分业经营和分业监管的模式形成;在金融市场体系培育上,通过进一步严格同业拆借市场的准入资格,完善利率机制,保证了同业拆借市场的健康发展,通过增发国债品种和数量、完善国债流通二级市场、恢复国债回购业务等措施保证了中央银行公开市场业务的进行,由此也克服了长期以来我国货币市场建设滞后的局面,形成了货币市场与资本市场齐头并进、相互配合的良性…     

关于构建旗县农牧区国债代销机制的构想

国债是我国筹集经济建设资金,弥补财政赤字,拓宽人民群众投资渠道,活跃市场经济的重要手段。建立完善的国债发行市场和管理机制对确保顺利完成国债发行任务具有重要意义。目前,我国国债发行市场主要集中于城市地区,而县域农村牧区的国债发行一直较为滞后。近年来,随着经济的快速发展,县域农村牧区居民生活逐渐富裕,收入水平不断提高,农牧民的投资意识不断增强。由于农村牧区国债发行市场发展滞后,致使农牧民购买国债困难,制约了农牧区融资市场的发展。为促进县域农村牧区国债市场发展,扩大国家国债筹资范畴,活跃农村经济,解决县域地区国债发行中存在的实际问题,笔者通过调研,并结合内蒙古自治区国债发行现状及农村牧区金融机构分布特点,提出构建旗县农牧区国债代销机制,以进一步促进我国国债市场的建设和完善。     

论建立适合我国国情的国债发行制度

20世纪80年代初以来 ,我国国债发行从行政摊派走向市场化的竞标承销 ,国债发行制度已日臻完善 ,国债市场的功能也得到了发挥 ;然而 ,我国国债发行制度的缺陷和不足 ,制约了国债发行市场的规范和发展及其功能的充分发挥。本文从剖析我国国债发行制度创新的误区入手 ,对建立适合我国国情的国债发行制度做现实剖析和前瞻性研究。     

我国金融工程发展的市场环境与制度框架

金融工程具有对风险的规避和放大效应。金融工程的发展不仅需要强大的技术手段支持，更需要政府从制度层面进行合理配置。本文分析了金融工程在经济运行中的负面作用，根据当前我国利率、汇率市场化改革的宏观环境，并结合当前国外金融制度建设的基本特征和我国基本国情，提出了我国金融工程发展的制度框架。其中，近期制度建设构想为：加强法规制度建设，优化金融环境，严防金融欺诈；加强监管机构管理，确保其独立性和公平性；加强二级市场管理建设。远期制度建设构想为：进一步强化对产品发行人、合作投资计划、市场中介机构和行业自律等方面的制度约束。     

我国国债二级市场投资风险实证分析

长期以来,大多数研究国债的学者主要关注国债发行市场及其宏观影响,如国债的使用方向,适度规模研究,国债挤出效应及与财政货币政策关系等,而对国债二级市场的发展未能得到足够的重视。本文利用VaR-GARCH方法对国债二级市场风险进行实证分析,希望能够对投资者在风险控制和投资管理上有较好的借鉴意义。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…