Intra-Industry Specialization in United States–China Trade

Frictions in U.S.–China bilateral trade relations have intensified in recent years. Changes in intra-industry specialization indicators are used to assess factor adjustment pressures that may have been experienced by U.S. and Chinese industries from recent growth in bilateral trade. Many industries experienced large increases in intra-industry trade over the 2000–10 period. Only 14 of 62 U.S. industries may have experienced factor adjustment pressures. Most U.S. industries gained from growth in U.S.–China trade. Nine Chinese industries may have faced factor adjustment pressures. The United States should refrain from using trade remedy measures to address bilateral trade frictions and focus instead on improving trade relations.     

Pattern and Determinants of United States' Intra-Industry Trade

This study identifies country and industry-level determinants of intra-industry trade and its components, vertical (VIIT) and horizontal (HIIT) intra-industry trade, in bilateral U.S. trade. Unlike studies for other countries, U.S. intra-industry trade is found to be dominated by HIIT rather than VIIT. This finding is important because HIIT tends to have relatively low factor adjustment costs relative to VIIT. Industry specialization takes place within, rather than across, product lines within the same industry. Two new variables contribute to our understanding of intra-industry trade. Country-level product differentiation and the interaction between technological innovation and foreign direct investment are found to be important determinants of both HIIT and VIIT. Distance, foreign direct investment flows, scale economies, and seller concentration affect HIIT but not VIIT. Other influences exert similar influences on components of intra-industry trade.     

中国纺织服装产业内贸易现状及决定因素实证研究——基于 2002～2010年面板数据的分析

本文从静态和动态角度考察了2002～2010年中国纺织服装业总体、水平型和垂直型产业内贸易现状及其决定因素。实证结果表明:中国纺织服装总体产业内贸易发展缓慢,水平不高,仍以产业间贸易为主;各子产品产业内贸易水平高低不一,以垂直型产业内贸易为主导。经济规模、人均收入水平与我国产业内贸易尤其是水平型产业内贸易呈正相关,且有显著增强趋势;人均收入差异对我国纺织服装VIIT起到正向作用,且影响显著;地理距离对中国纺织服装TIIT、HIIT和VIIT起到了较显著负面影响;人民币汇率变动与中国纺织服装TIIT、HIIT和VIIT正相关,且影响程度有增强趋势;贸易不平衡与我国TIIT、HIIT和VIIT显著负相关,且影响程度有增强趋势。贸易开放度对我国纺织服装TI-IT、HIIT和VIIT的影响不显著。     

国际旅游服务业产业内贸易的影响因素

文章使用Crubel-Lloyd IIT指数,运用非线性Logit模型对国际旅游服务业产业内贸易的影响因素进行经验分析.分析结果表明人均收入差异程度、市场集中度、对外直接投资、两国间的直线距离以及旅游资源差异程度与国际旅游服务业产业内贸易程度正相关;贸易不平衡度、市场规模差异程度、市场开放差异程度、跨国公司和其国外子公司之间的贸易流以及交通质量差异程度与国际旅游服务业产业内贸易程度负相关.     

产业内贸易对劳动力市场调整的影响分析——基于中国制造业面板数据的SAH检验

随着中国经济全球化进程的深化,外贸对国内经济的影响日益显著。根据平滑调整假说(SAH),劳动力市场调整成本会随着产业内贸易水平的提高而降低。基于中国制造业22个细分行业面板数据进行检验,本文发现间隔3年的边际内产业指数最为有效,且产业内贸易水平对劳动力市场调整具有滞后效应,但回归分析结果并不支持SAH。随着产业内贸易比例扩大,劳动力的产业间调整增加,而并非产业内的调整。此外,劳动生产率和国内显性需求对劳动力市场调整有很大影响,在产业内贸易水平较高的行业内,劳动生产率的这种影响更加显著,而显性需求和产业内贸易水平影响作用较弱。     

基于Probit模型的产业内贸易影响因素差异研究:以中国和东盟产业内贸易为例

本文利用联合国SITC(REV.04)标准和2009年的数据,对中国与东盟产业内贸易指数的分析表明:新加坡、马来西亚、菲律宾、越南、泰国等与中国产业内贸易程度较高,其他东盟成员国与中国的G-L指数较小。Probit模型估计结果显示出中国与东盟产业内贸易的影响因素因行业不同而不同,并不具一致性。如外商直接投资显著促进了东盟与中国初级产品的产业内贸易,但对制造业无明显影响。而教育支出则显著地促进了中国与东盟间规模最大的机械及运输设备(SITC7)行业内贸易,但对其他行业影响不大。     

DETERMINANTS OF TRADE: THE CASE OF MEXICO

This article explains the extent of intra-industry trade (IIT) in Mexico's foreign trade, and tests empirically various country-specific hypotheses concerning the determinants of intra-industry trade between Mexico and its major trading partners. The results of the econometric analysis corroborate the predictions of the theoretical models. The results indicate that the extent of Mexican intra-industry trade is positively correlated with the average income levels, average country size, trade intensity, trade orientation, the existence of a common border, the existence of a common language, and the participation in regional integration schemes, while it is negatively correlated with income inequality, inequality in country size, distance, and trade imbalance.     

产业内贸易指标述评

自20世纪90年代以来,产业内贸易(ⅡT)指标从标准G-L指数不断发展为新的分类指标、动态指标和一些扩展指标.这些指标使我们对ⅡT的经验研究不再局限于简单的系数估计,而是可以依据研究目标来检验ⅡT理论的适用性,预测具体的ⅡT模式,以及估计贸易扩张的动态调整效果等.本文尝试将这些ⅡT指标及其适用范围进行综述,以期对人们进行有关研究有所裨益.     

中澳两国产业内贸易的实证研究——基于1997-2007年进出口贸易数据

本文首先通过理论和实证比较选取Aquino指数对中澳两国产业内贸易状况进行了测度,然后利用GHM法将产业内贸易细分为垂直型和水平型,从更深层次研究中澳两国产业内贸易现状和发展趋势,结果发现:中澳两国初级产品产业内贸易整体水平较低,但Aquino指数呈现上升趋势,产业内贸易水平有进一步提升的空间;中澳两国制成品产业内贸易整体水平明显高于初级产品,但无论是资本、技术密集型产业还是劳动密集型产业,中国都不具有优势,中国劳动密集型制成品没有表现出预想优势,贸易条件持续恶化,资本或技术密集型制成品与澳大利亚有较大差距,但差距呈现缩小趋势。     

中日两国产业内贸易的实证研究

本文对中日双边贸易中制成品产业内贸易的发展现状、特征以及影响因素进行了实证研究,发现随着中日双边贸易中资本和技术密集型产品比重的提高,制成品产业内贸易比重也有所提高;其中,机械和运输设备产业内贸易所占比重最高;垂直差异化产品产业内贸易是中日制成品产业内贸易的主要形式;日本对华直接投资活动活跃、跨国公司国际一体化生产体系的构筑及其产业内投资的发展、中国持续经济增长引起的市场容量扩大、加工贸易的快速发展、产品差异化发展以及便利的地理区位因素均有利于促进双边产业内贸易的发展,规模经济和贸易壁垒因素对其则尚存消极影响。     

中韩贸易中工业制品的比较优势及国际分工类型分析

中国正式加入WTO以后,其产业发展已进入按国际分工结构来选择和实施战略性调整的关键时期。本丈分析了中国对韩国出口工业制品的比较优势和中韩间在工业制品中产业内贸易发展的状况,指出了两国间产业国际分工的类型及特征。     

Intra-industry trade between the united states and the major latin american countries: Measurement and implications for free trade in the Americas

This paper presents estimates for the level of intra-industry trade in the 1991 bilateral commerce between the United States and Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Venezuela. As theory predicts, intra-industry trade is positively correlated with income and with foreign investment in this study. Furthermore, Mexico and the United States present high levels of intra-industry trade, whereas the other Latin American countries analyzed have relatively low levels. The paper concludes that Mexico should experience much less difficulty in adjusting to free trade with the United States than the other countries. The low levels of intra-in-dustry trade between the United States and the other Latin American nations signal that increased trade between these areas would bring about significant dislocation of resources and high adjustment costs.     

The Relation of Key Industrial Characteristics to Trade Performance

The relationship of key industrial characteristics to trade indicators are examined in a comprehensive data set of 200 U.S. manufacturing industries. It is found that labor productivity and skill positively affects trade performance while labor content adversely affects such performance. Significant relationships are also found for capital expenditures, degree of concentration, inventories and specialization. Implications of the results for public policy are offered.     

Vertical Intra-Industry Trade and Product Fragmentation in the Auto-Parts Industry

A distinctive feature of present globalization is the development of international production sharing activities, i.e. production fragmentation. The increased importance of fragmentation in world trade has created an interest among trade economists in explaining the determinants of intra-industry trade (IIT) in intermediate goods. In this study, the extent of IIT in Austria’s auto-parts trade is analyzed by decomposing Austria’s auto-parts trade into one-way trade, vertical IIT, and horizontal intra-industry trade IIT. Then, the development of vertical IIT in the auto-parts industry is examined as an indicator for international fragmentation of the production process between Austria and its 29 trading partners, and various country-specific factors suggested by the fragmentation literature are tested using panel econometrics as well as more recent data from 1996 to 2006. The results show that a substantial portion of IIT in the Austrian auto-parts industry is vertical IIT, and the econometric results mainly support the hypothesis drawn from the fragmentation theory. In particular, the findings show that the extent of Austria’s vertical IIT in auto-parts is positively correlated with average market size, differences in per capita GDP, and foreign direct investment, while it is negatively correlated with distance.     

中国对外贸易政策取向的实证研究——基于中韩自由贸易区的建立

产业内贸易程度不仅可以衡量一国在国际上的产业竞争优势和国际分工地位,而且能全面反映贸易双方在规模经济、技术进步、消费者福利等多方面的优势。文章通过对1992～2007年中韩产业内贸易指数的计算和实证分析发现:中韩产业内贸易还存在诸多问题,农产品的产业内贸易程度太低,工业制成品的产业内贸易多为垂直型,并且有加工贸易的迹象。因此文章建议:在中韩自由贸易区的环境下,通过外商直接投资促进中韩产业内贸易由垂直型向水平型转变,进而改善我国的贸易条件;借助中韩自由贸易区关税优惠政策和原产地的便利,进一步扩大中韩贸易市场份额,共享中韩自由贸易的成果。     

ECFA框架下海峡两岸产业内贸易发展研究

近十年台湾和大陆之间的贸易规模和水平的持续飞速提高为产业内贸易的形成提供了基础,产业内贸易越来越成为其贸易利益的主要来源。文章通过对2000～2009年大陆与台湾产业内贸易总体水平、按技术含量高低分类的产品产业内贸易水平、边际产业内贸易水平以及水平型和垂直型产业内贸易进行量化分析,结果显示海峡两岸产业内贸易总体水平比较高,并且水平型产业内贸易占总产业内贸易的份额有所上升,表明大陆与台湾在国际分工的地位上以及技术水平上的差距正在逐步缩小。文章最后提出了在ECFA框架下发展海峡两岸产业内贸易的对策建议。     

产业内贸易的计量

产业内贸易是同一产业内产品同时进口和出口的贸易活动。对产业内贸易计量方法的研究一直是产业内贸易理论研究的重点之一。文章在回顾了传统计量方法的基础上 ,概括和推导出新的计量方法 ,并加以论证 ,进而归纳出当前最优的产业内贸易计量方法。最后 ,结合我国情况予以实证检验 ,并分析我国产业内贸易的实际水平和发展趋势。     

Intra-Industry Trade in Latin America and the Caribbean

An increasingly important component of total world trade is intra-industry trade (IIT). The large volume of literature on IIT is reflective of this importance. However, this extensive literature has focused almost completely on explaining the causes of IIT. This focus has left a puzzling gap in the literature. Specifically, it is almost impossible to determine the level of IIT for a particular country or region. Further, there is almost no information on the level of IIT at the industry level either globally or for a region or country. In this article we provide estimates of IIT for the world and for the countries of the Western Hemisphere. Further, we provide estimates of IIT for ten different SITC product categories on the same basis. The findings of the article indicate that in most industries, IIT in Latin America is substantially lower overall than the world average. There are, however, substantial variations observed both by country and by industry. Because the results are the first available for the region as a whole, they should allow researchers to get a better picture of the extent of IIT in Latin America and the Caribbean by country and by industry.     

后配额时代中国纺织服装业产业内贸易研究

文章对后配额时代中国纺织服装业的产业内贸易规模、水平及结构进行了实证研究,结果显示,中国纺织服装产业对外贸易快速增长的同时,整体产业内贸易发展比较缓慢,产业内贸易水平较低;贸易模式主要表现为产业间贸易。部分纺织产品产业内贸易以垂直型为主,其中低质量垂直型占绝对主导地位,产业内贸易的层次有待提升。     

产品内分工与产品内贸易——一个基于汽车产品的实例分析

国际分工由产业间深入到产业内并进一步深入到产品内已是一个不争的事实,尤其是在汽车、电子、服装等制造业产业。经典贸易理论以整体终端产品作为潜在的分析假设,因此难以担负解释国际贸易现状的重任。那么,什么是产品内分工和产品内贸易,在该领域的研究现状如何,怎样分析产品内分工的组织或权力结构?本文将以汽车为例,针对以上问题作出初步的回答。