浅析房地产行业税收流失问题及对策

房地产行业税收流失的治理一直是我国税务部门征税的大难题。文章首先从税务部门自身及房地产企业两方面各个环节阐明房地产行业税收流失的现状;其次从税务部门为保持税收收入均衡增长等方面分析税收流失的原因;最后针对房地产企业税收流失的现状和原因,提出税务、审计部门及有关部门应加强协调,采取有效对策,加强和完善房地产税收控管的办法和措施等治理对策。     

构建甘青宁新西北少数民族经济区的设想

甘青宁新西北少数民族经济区的构建有利于西部大开发战略的纵深推进和西北地区经济、社会、文化的协调均衡发展,是西北地区产业结构调整、城乡居民收入进一步提高、地区稳定、民族和谐的必然要求。这一区域发展战略的提出,虽然只是一种制度设想,但是却为西北四省区的发展定位以及西部大开发战略中各项政策的协调,提供了新的解读和研究视角,期待能够引起我国各级政府和决策部门的重视。     

可再生能源、中间产品质量与可持续发展

本文通过构建一个基于中间产品质量创新的四部门内生增长模型,研究了在可再生能源和技术进步的双重作用下,基于市场主体最优决策的均衡增长路径,较为完整地分析了市场均衡中能源资源、研发创新与经济增长之间的相互作用机理。我们采用多种连续中间产品的产出效率来刻画技术创新,求解并讨论了经济系统的均衡增长路径及其存在条件,运用比较静态和数值模拟方法分析了各类参数的长期产出增长效应和能源消耗增长效应。最后得出结论并提出了相关的政策建议和进一步研究的方向。     

从非稳态出发探讨影响经济增长的因素——一个基于索洛模型的分析

在大多数模型化的经济增长理论中,首先考察的是经济如何达到长期均衡,然后分析一旦经济偏离了均衡增长将如何运行,是否能够重新收敛于长期均衡点。因此遵循均衡—偏离均衡—均衡的分析思路。而在现实生活中,我们所观察到的多是非充分就业下的非均衡的复杂经济状况。本文试图在索洛增长模型的基础上,在非充分就业环境的假定下探讨经济增长以及与之相关的经济运行问题。并且部分地尝试用其解释我国目前的经济运行情况。     

产业结构调整的哲学思考

关于产业结构调整方式问题，早在20世纪50年代，西方发展经济学就有过关于均衡方式与非均衡方式的激烈争论，以纳克斯、罗森斯坦一罗丹为代表的均衡论者认为由于某一生产部门所生产的产品往往是另一部门所需的原料或中间产品，产业部门之间具有互补性。因而各产业部门必须同时发展，同时推进。均衡发展一方面要求经济运行中的高度计划性，这不仅与市场经济的原则相背离，而且计划也极容易发生偏差，中国计划经济下产业结构严重失调就是一个很好的证明，另一方面要求国家有足够的资金投入，这对资金短缺的中国来说是很难实现的。与均衡论相对应，非均衡论的主要倡导者赫希曼、斯特里顿、罗斯托等强调要通过促使具有较高劳动生产率的产业部门和较高的增长可能性的部门优先发展，来提高整个经济的资源利用水平，缩短与发达国家的差距。对比均衡发展理论，中国的产业结构调整更适合非均衡的方式。     

WTO框架下知识产权保护的经济学分析——博弈论角度

本文试图从博弈论角度来分析国际知识产权保护问题,通过比较发展中国家和发达国家知识产权保护的纳什均衡,我们可以发现发展中国家相对于发达国家很自然地处于弱势地位。而且如果发展中国家能够和发达国家协调知识产权保护标准,同时发达国家更加开放其传统产品市场,南北双方都能获利。由此说明了在WTO框架下进行多部门谈判的优点。     

做好区域规划这篇大文章

与以往历次五年规划相比，编制“十一五”规划，除了要把握好科学发展观的要求、注重经济增长方式的转变、注重改革与发展的结合、充分考虑资源和生态环境的承载能力以外，突出的一条就是要在规划编制中引入区域均衡发展的理念。所谓区域的协调均衡发展，就是指人口分布、经济分布在各区域之间要适当、要均衡。缩小地区间差距。不只是缩小国内生产总值的差距，重点是缩小人均国内生产总值和城乡居民收入的差距，最终是缩小人民生活水平和公共服务方面的差距。促进区域协调均衡发展的一个有效措施就是编制区域发展规划，通过区域发展规划达到区域协调发展的目的。     

产业结构变化及其对经济增长影响的理论分析

一、引言 传统经济增长理论假设竞争均衡,认为经济增长是资本积累、劳动力增加和技术变化长期作用的结果;在很长时期内,忽略了结构变化与经济增长的内在联系.最早,Lewis(1954)对这一问题进行了初步探讨,他认为结构变化对经济增长具有重要作用,部门结构转变是经济增长和生产率提高的重要源泉.     

转型期社会利益关系失衡之危害及解决路径探讨

利益关系是社会关系的本质,构建公正合理的协调的利益关系是新时期建设和谐社会的必然要求。当前中国社会利益关系失衡违背了这一要求损害了社会公平,影响到经济的增长,更不利于我国的民主建设以及社会的和谐与发展。因此,兼顾个人利益同时强化社会公共利益,建立和完善合理的相对均衡的利益分配格局,健全通畅的利益表达机制,公平正义的利益保障机制,是解决利益关系失衡的路径依赖。     

我国金融产业结构与经济增长关系研究

我国金融产业结构与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,但是金融产业内部各行业对经济增长的贡献却各有不同,我国金融产业结构存在发展不协调的问题。本文对我国金融产业结构和经济增长相互关系进行实证研究,分析了我国金融产业结构和经济增长的关联性,并在实证研究的基础上,提出促进我国金融产业结构与经济增长协调发展的相关政策建议。     

The Individual Life Cycle and Economic Growth: An Essay on Demographic Macroeconomics

We develop a demographic macroeconomic model that captures the salient life-cycle features at the individual level and, at the same time, allows us to pinpoint the main mechanisms at play at the aggregate level. At the individual level the model features both age-dependent mortality and productivity and allows for less-than-perfect annuity markets. At the aggregate level the model gives rise to single-sector endogenous growth and includes a Pay-As-You-Go pension system. We show that ageing generally promotes economic growth due to a strong savings response. Under a defined benefit system the growth effect is still positive but lower than under a defined contribution system. Surprisingly, we find that an increase in the retirement age dampens the economic growth expansion following a longevity shock.     

Agricultural productivity growth in China: farm level versus aggregate measurement

We measure agricultural productivity growth in China using alternative data sets: farm level data for Jiangsu province, national data, and provincial aggregate data for Jiangsu. For all three data sets, productivity growth was estimated to be strong during the immediate post-reform 1978–1987 period. According to the farm level data, productivity growth then slowed from 1988 to 1996. Alternatively, the national and provincial aggregate figures showed continued high productivity growth in the 1990s. These findings suggest that aggregate data may blur the true picture with regard to agricultural productivity growth in China.     

20世纪90年代以来美国对外贸易逆差与经济增长的相关性分析

本文应用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验方法检验了20世纪90年代以来美国对外贸易逆差与经济增长的相关性。检验结果表明,1991~2005年间,美国对外贸易逆差的扩大与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的动态均衡关系,美国的经济增长是其对外贸易逆差扩大的Granger原因,而拒绝对外贸易逆差扩大不是美国经济增长的Granger原因的概率只有60%。对此计量检验结果,本文认为,美国国内总供给与总需求缺口、经济结构升级、低利率、高新技术出口管制以及美国的国际分工地位、大规模对外直接投资、主要贸易伙伴经济增速缓慢、谋求全球霸权等国内外因素对美国经济的影响具有双效性:一方面支撑了美国经济的增长;另一方面却加剧了美国对外贸易的逆差。     

Money,inflation, and output growth: Does the aggregate demand-aggregate supply model explain the international evidence?

Money, Inflation, and Output Growth: Does the Aggregate Demand-Aggregate Supply Model Explain the International Evidence? - Using annual post-war data for 32 countries, it is shown that output and the price level are positively related along the aggregate supply and negatively related along the aggregate demand curve. This implies that the negative correlation between inflation and growth simply means that the price level has been countercyclical as aggregate supply shocks domi-nated aggregate demand shocks. It is also shown that money growth has positive and permanent effects on inflation, but may affect output only in the short run: in the long run, money is probably neutral.     

Explaining the Productivity Growth Gap Between China and India: The Role of Structural Transformation

Chinese and Indian aggregate productivity growth has been significantly different over the last 30 years. This paper studies the role of structural transformation in accounting for the aggregate productivity growth gap between two economies. We calibrate a neoclassical model of structural transformation for China and India. The model implies that higher productivity growth in China's manufacturing and agriculture accounts for most of the aggregate productivity growth gap between the two countries. According to the development strategy of China's government, China would start a new phase of structural transformation whereby employment is moving from manufacturing to services. Since the productivity growth gap in services is pretty small between China and India, if China wants to remain superior in relative productivity, it should improve the productivity growth rate of services. In contrast, the relative performance in India hinges on closing its productivity gap in agriculture and manufacturing relative to China.     

The Short-Run Relationship Between Sectoral Shifts and U.S. Labor Market Fluctuations

Monthly data for the aggregate U.S. economy are used to assess competing hypotheses concerning the relationship between sectoral employment shifts and fluctuations in the unemployment rate. It is shown that sectoral shifts are caused by major work stoppages, aggregate fluctuations unrelated to permanent sectoral shifts, a reallocation-timing effect, and allocative shocks at the sectoral level. Larger employment shifts are associated with higher unemployment during slow growth periods and lower unemployment during above-average growth periods. Models are presented which demonstrate that both aggregate and allocative shocks are causes of cyclical increases in unemployment.     

扩展的总需求总供给模型——一个阐释我国宏观经济运行的分析框架

本文在附加预期的菲利普斯曲线基础上,通过引入可变的技术进步变量,修正了新古典的总供给曲线,指出除预期的通货膨胀率、产出缺口外,技术进步也是影响总供给曲线的重要变量;同时将总需求曲线扩展到开放经济条件下,从而推导出了“通货膨胀率——产出增长率”系统下的总需求总供给模型。作为对扩展后模型的检验,本文利用该模型阐释了我国宏观经济运行中的“高增长与低通胀并存”现象。     

The implications of the New Silk Road Railways on local development

This paper studies the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on local development in Europe. In particular, we analyze regional treatment effects of the introduction of the China Railway Express on economic growth, employment, and intermodal transport volumes. The commissioning of rail connections under the umbrella of the BRI provides a natural experiment that can be evaluated empirically using causal inference techniques. On the aggregate level, our results show that establishing a new railway connection with China is not systematically associated with short-run economic growth. However, the new railway connections spurred local employment and road freight, i.e. boost intermodal transport. These aggregate findings are supplemented by additional evidence on sector-specific and regional spillover effects. These findings shed light on the increased relevance of BRI infrastructure projects for its future expansions.     

Variation in the Effects of Aggregate Demand Shocks: Evidence and Implications across Industrial Countries

Over a sample of nineteen industrial countries, more variable aggregate demand and/or higher mean inflation attenuates (augments) the effect of aggregate demand shocks on real output growth (wage and price inflation) while having no effect on the response of the real wage to such shocks. In all countries examined, aggregate demand shocks are positively (negatively) correlated with nominal variables (real output). Among explanations of the business cycle based on shocks to aggregate demand, this evidence favors the new Keynesian sticky wage explanation over the sticky price and the new classical imperfect information explanations.     

我国居民劳动报酬增长的阶段性与同步性研究

劳动力供求的变化使我国可能在2015年以后进入劳动报酬的高增长期。届时劳动报酬占比较低的状况可能得到改善,但在劳动报酬总量持续增长的同时,人均劳动报酬将会陷入一个低增长期,原因主要在于低水平的人力资本积累、低效率的产业结构转型、老龄化及忽视员工的企业经营伦理。因此,实现劳动报酬总量与人均水平同步增长的关键在于培育一个包含政府、企业、劳动者,充满有效的动力、激励和约束机制的社会系统模式。