20世纪90年代以来美国对外贸易逆差与经济增长的相关性分析

本文应用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验方法检验了20世纪90年代以来美国对外贸易逆差与经济增长的相关性。检验结果表明,1991~2005年间,美国对外贸易逆差的扩大与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的动态均衡关系,美国的经济增长是其对外贸易逆差扩大的Granger原因,而拒绝对外贸易逆差扩大不是美国经济增长的Granger原因的概率只有60%。对此计量检验结果,本文认为,美国国内总供给与总需求缺口、经济结构升级、低利率、高新技术出口管制以及美国的国际分工地位、大规模对外直接投资、主要贸易伙伴经济增速缓慢、谋求全球霸权等国内外因素对美国经济的影响具有双效性:一方面支撑了美国经济的增长;另一方面却加剧了美国对外贸易的逆差。

Analysis on Corelationship between American Foreign Trade Deficit and Its Economic Growth since 1990s

This paper examined empirically the corelationship between American foreign trade deficit and its economic growth since 1990s by the Cointegrating analysis and Granger test of causality.The results indicate that there are long and steady dynamic equilibrium relations between the economic growth and the trade deficit from 1991 to 2005,and American economic growth is the Granger's causality of the expansion of American foreign trade deficit,but the contrary probability is only about 60 percent.We consider that the factors,such as the gap between aggregate supply and aggregate demand,economic structure upgrading,low interests rate,high-tech export controlling,international division status,extensive foreign direct investment,principal trade partners' low economic growth rate and seeking global hegemony,have coincident impacts on American economy.On one hand they can stimulate the economic growth;on the other hand they can aggravate the trade deficit of America.