我国出口导向型贸易战略的效应分析

出口在一国经济发展中所处的地位及所起的作用是不言而喻的,扩大出口无论对发达国家还是发展中国家而言,都非常重要。我国作为一个发展中国家,在经济起飞阶段应当选择什么样的贸易战略,引起了经济学者的广泛关注与研究。出口这一战略导向型贸易战略在实施中产生了一定的负面效应,但积极效应更加明显,在我国产业结构升级换代的过程中,仍需要坚持并不断调整,减少其负面效应,以更好地利用该战略。     

Entering the last frontier: expansion by US multinationals to Africa

Literature on multinationalism, even that which focuses on economic development and incentives for foreign direct investment (FDI), largely ignores the African continent despite its market of over 700 million inhabitants and its unique challenges for foreign firms. However, the African continent provides an important arena for examining the effects of infrastructure, wealth, and political differentials across countries and the effects of these variables on the expansion decisions of US multinational corporations (MNCs). In this paper we examine the US stock market reaction to announcements of US firms entering African markets through both FDI and Non-FDI modes. Finally, we investigate the accounting performance implications of these expansions. Our results show that, on average, firms experience negative wealth effects when expanding to Africa. Further analysis shows that expansions to South Africa produce losses, while expansion to the rest of Africa produce positive gains. We also show that firms with higher return on equity perform better than firms with lower return on equity when they expand to Africa in countries other than South Africa.     

Macroprudential policies,economic growth and banking crises

Using a sample covering emerging market and advanced economies, we assess the impact of macroprudential policies on financial stability. Our empirical setup is designed to account for the potential direct and indirect effects that macroprudential policies can have on banking crises. We find that while macroprudential policies (MPPs) exert a direct stabilizing effect, they also have an indirect destabilizing effect, which works through the depressing of economic growth. It turns out that mitigating effects of MPPs on the likelihood of banking crises is more pronounced in emerging market economies relative to advanced economies.     

Redesigning after-sales service: Impact on incumbent product distribution channels

With the growth of multi-channel retailing, many firms that have traditionally relied upon third-party service providers to offer after-sales service (AS) have introduced direct AS channel. While there exist a few studies that examine the effects of adding a direct sales channel on the sales revenue of incumbent channels, there are no studies investigating the effects of adding direct AS channel. This study tries to fill this research gap by exploring cross-channel effects of including AS through the firm's direct brand stores on performance (i.e., revenue, assortment width, and extent of upselling) in both direct and indirect channels. A matched difference-in-difference quasi-experimental design was used to compare the sales outcomes of test and control groups using a five-year longitudinal dataset from a large dual-channel consumer durables firm. Results reveal that providing AS through the firm's direct channel has a positive significant effect on the revenue and upselling in the indirect channel, but no significant impact on assortment width in the indirect channel. However, unlike hypothesized, it results in significantly lower revenue, assortment width, and upselling in the direct channel. We interpret these negative effects as arising from customer confusion and perceived retail crowding. Overall, our research highlights that implementation of going direct with AS should be done with utmost care. Our findings would serve as a building block for future studies that are conducted to understand the dynamic cross-channel effects of introducing direct AS, and would be useful for drawing comparisons and contrasts.     

Does Index Futures Trading Reduce Volatility in the Chinese Stock Market? A Panel Data Evaluation Approach

This study investigates the effect of introducing index futures trading on the spot price volatility in the Chinese stock market. We employ a recently developed panel data policy evaluation approach (Hsiao, Ching, and Wan, 2011) to construct counterfactuals of the spot market volatility, based mainly on cross‐sectional correlations between the Chinese and international stock markets. This new method does not need to specify a particular regression or a time‐series model for the volatility process around the introduction date of index futures trading, and thus avoids the potential omitted variable bias caused by uncontrolled market factors in the existing literature. Our results provide empirical evidence that the introduction of index futures trading significantly reduces the volatility of the Chinese stock market, which is robust to different model selection criteria and various prediction approaches. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 33:1167–1190, 2013     

体验型产品在线评论与消费意愿及销量的关系——以价格为调节变量

随着网络在线交易的迅猛发展,在线评论等网络口碑传播的重要性日益凸显。以体验型产品为研究对象,以信号理论和"刺激-反应"理论为指导,建立"在线评论-消费意愿-在线销量"模型分析三个要素之间的关系机理,并采用中介效应检验和调节效应检验进行验证,结果显示:在线评论作为一种信息刺激,其数量对体验型产品在线销量具有显著的正向影响,但在线评论质量效价评分对体验型产品在线销量的影响不显著,这与产品的类型有关;在线评论一是直接对在线销量产生影响,一是通过中介变量(即作为消费意愿替代变量的收藏量)传递影响,对在线销量产生作用;商品价格在在线评论和在线销量的直接和间接关系中都起到了正向调节作用,这与体验型产品交易过程中价格质量信号功能强于促销功能有关。实践中,企业可通过一些激励设计提高消费者在线评论参与度;进行更加科学化的网页设计,完善收藏功能,以方便消费者进行筛选和比较;注意防止盲目降价行为给消费者带来的负面影响,发挥好价格的信号作用。     

Social capital dynamics and foreign market entry

This paper explores the dynamics of social capital in 121 new foreign market entries (FMEs) of 24 Swedish and New Zealand small- to medium-sized enterprises in the early and later phases of their internationalization. Its main contribution is the systematic assessment of the roles and forms of social capital over time and across countries, thus providing greater insight into the social capital concept. We separate social capital into efficacy and serendipity roles (economic dimension) and direct and indirect relationships (structural dimension). Efficacious and direct social capital is associated with early FMEs, while serendipitous and indirect social capital is more prevalent with later FMEs, indicating that social capital changes with (and is dependent on) FME. Moreover, while geographical proximity does not appear to affect the economic dimension of social capital, it is important for the structural dimension.     

Longitude matters: Time zones and the location of foreign direct investment

Using bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) data, we find that differences in time zones have a negative and significant effect on the location of FDI. We show that this finding is robust across different specifications, estimation methods and proxies for time zone differences. Time zones also have a negative effect on trade, but this effect is smaller than that on FDI. Finally, the impact of the time zone effect has increased over time, suggesting that it is not likely to vanish with the introduction of new information technologies.     

Dismantling institutional complexity behind international competitiveness of emerging market firms

The paper examines the perceived role of emerging market institutions in the creation of firm‐specific advantages of local small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) supporting international expansion and competitiveness. Our objective is to deepen conceptual understanding of the complex link between emerging market institutional factors and an ability of emerging market SMEs to compete internationally. Our empirical evidence from Russian software SMEs operating in global niche markets reveals that managers perceive institutional influence on their firms' ability to compete internationally in a number of direct and indirect means. We find that, in addition to the well acknowledged negative impact of institutions, there are supportive and triggering forces that incentivize SMEs' international expansion and development of competitive advantages. We contribute to the literature by elaborating about the complexity of institutional influence on international competitiveness of emerging market SMEs. This research offers insights for managers about the prospects of international expansion of SMEs from emerging markets.     

Does shelf-labeling of organic foods increase sales? Results from a natural experiment

Can a simple point-of-purchase (POP) shelf-label increase sales of organic foods? We use a random-effects׳, random-coefficients׳ model, including a time adjustment variable, to test data from a natural experiment in a hypermarket in Gävle, Sweden. Our model incorporates both product specific heterogeneity in the effects of labeling and consumer adjustment to the labels over time. We find that the introduction of POP displays leads to an increase in sales of organic coffee and olive oil, but a reduction in sales of organic flour. All targeted products became less price-sensitive. The results reveal that product specific differences have to be accounted for, and in some cases consumers adjusted to labeling over time.     

Wage and competition channels of foreign direct investment and new firm entry

Using a rich data set of the Dutch manufacturing sector between 1995 and 2010, we investigate the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on domestic new firm entry. The emerging empirical literature has focused on the direct relationship between FDI and entry, but has not explored the mechanisms behind the observed effect. Drawing on a simultaneous equations model, our analysis features both the direct effect of FDI as well as indirect effects through two channels: industry competition and wages. We estimate the parameters through 3SLS and take into account the endogeneity of competition and wages with respect to entry. Our results show that there is a significant negative direct effect of FDI on entry. At the same time, FDI decreases competition and increases wage levels, which then impact entry positively and negatively, respectively. The total effect of FDI is negative, but small and virtually disappears after one year. Policy implications are discussed.

     

The Lag Structure of the Impact of Business Ownership on Economic Performance in OECD Countries

This paper investigates the impact of changes in the number of business owners on three measures of economic performance, viz. employment growth, GDP growth and labor productivity growth. Particular attention is devoted to the lag structure. The analysis is performed at the country level for 21 OECD countries. Our results confirm earlier evidence on three stages in the impact of entry on economic performance: an initial direct positive effect, followed by a negative effect due to exiting capacities and finally a stage of positive supply-side effects. The net effect is positive for employment and GDP growth. Changes in the number of business owners have no effect on labor productivity.      

Preference Erosion – The Case of Everything But Arms and Sugar

While the European Union's Everything But Arms (EBA) agreement has granted unlimited preferential access to the European market for the least developed countries (LDCs) since 2001, the sugar sector has been exempted for the first years. Only from 2009 on, the LDCs were entitled to export an unlimited amount of sugar to the EU, receiving the intervention price. The expected increase in sugar imports led the EU to substantially reduce the intervention price, besides other measures. This caused a disadvantage for countries which had been granted preferential access to the European market already: the African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) countries. Our paper quantifies this erosion of preferences, employing a gravity framework. In terms of methodology we are addressing two fundamental problems well known in the gravity literature. The occurrence of excess zeros in the dependent variable of such disaggregated data is tackled with the employment of the scale‐independent negative binomial quasi generalised pseudo maximum likelihood estimator. The problem of identification is addressed by modelling the policy change with the continuous preference margin instead of using dummy variables. We find that preference erosion did occur. The ACP countries were indeed negatively affected by the consequences following the introduction of the EBA.     

Impacts of International Greenfield Investment on Firm Valuation

Our study examines the announcement effects of 343 international greenfield investments by 289 U.S. firms for their impact on shareholder wealth. This paper develops five hypotheses based on the positive‐multinational‐network hypothesis. The evidence indicates that market reactions to announcements by firms entering developing countries are more favorable than those entering developed countries. In addition, the results show that the wealth effect for firms entering a host country for the first time is greater than for those that are already operating within the country. As for the long run, greenfield firms have shown improvement in their operating performance and stock performance. Copyright © 2012 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1

The economic development and growth literature contains extensive discussions on relationships between exports and economic growth. One debate centres on whether countries should promote the export sector to obtain economic growth. An abundant empirical literature on this export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis has followed. We aim to contribute to this literature in two ways. In this paper, part 1, we provide a comprehensive survey of more than 150 export-growth applied papers. We describe the changes that have occurred, over the last two decades, in the methodologies used empirically to examine for relationships between exports and economic growth, and we provide information on the current findings.The last decade has seen an abundance of time series studies that focus on examining for causality via exclusions restrictions tests, impulse response function analysis and forecast error variance decompositions. Our second contribution is to examine some of these time series methods. We show, in part 2, that ELG results based on standard causality techniques are not typically robust to specification or method. We do this by reconsidering two export-led growth applications – Oxley’s (1993) study for Portugal, and Henriques and Sadorsky’s (1996) analysis for Canada. Our results suggest that extreme care should be exercised when interpreting much of the applied research on the ELG hypothesis.     

What drives stock market development in emerging markets—institutions,remittances, or natural resources?

In this paper, we assess the macroeconomic determinants of stock market capitalization in a panel of 17 emerging markets in the Middle East and Central Asia, including both hydrocarbon-rich countries and economies without sizeable natural resource wealth. In addition to traditional variables, we include an institutional variable and remittances among the regressors. We find that (i) both institutions and remittances have a positive and significant impact on market capitalization; and (ii) both regressors matter, especially in countries without significant hydrocarbon sectors; whereas (iii) in resource-rich countries, stock market capitalization is mainly driven by the oil price.     

A meta‐analysis of the indirect impact of foreign direct investment in old and new EU member states: Understanding productivity spillovers

In this paper, we summarise, combine and explain recent findings from firm‐level empirical literature focusing on the indirect impact of foreign direct investment (FDI ) on economic performance, measured as productivity, in the Enlarged Europe. We have reviewed 52 quantitative studies, released between 2000 and 2015 and codified 1,133 estimates. We run a regression of regressions which measures the strength of the FDI –productivity relationship. Taking advantage of large number of high‐quality studies on FDI and its role in explaining the growth in firms’ productivity in Europe, we adopt recent meta‐regression analysis methods—funnel asymmetry and precision estimate tests and precision‐effect estimate with standard errors —to explain the heterogeneous impact of FDI . This paper assesses the country‐specific impact of FDI on firms’ performance, after taking publication selection bias, econometric modelling and the individual studies’ characteristics fully into account. Our results show that on average FDI has a positive indirect impact on productivity. The impact is especially significant in selected European countries, and we interpret this as a sign of better absorptive capacities in those countries.     

金融去杠杆对经济增长和经济波动的影响

金融去杠杆会影响经济增长和经济波动,而金融结构变迁和金融发展水平变化可能使金融去杠杆与宏观经济之间的关联呈现出差异性.本文以全球97个国家和地区1980—2015年的年度非平衡面板数据为研究样本,实证检验了金融去杠杆对宏观经济的影响,以及金融结构变迁和金融发展水平变化对二者关联的影响.结果表明,金融去杠杆会抑制经济增长,同时加大经济波动;以资本市场为代表的直接金融的发展会弱化金融去杠杆对经济增长的负效应和对经济波动的放大效应;而金融结构的变迁和以金融中介为代表的间接金融的发展不会对金融去杠杆与宏观经济之间的关联产生影响.这表明,在金融去杠杆背景下,监管部门应采用可控的手段来稳步推进金融去杠杆进程,避免产生"处置风险的风险".与此同时,还应加快资本市场的发展,以平抑金融去杠杆对宏观经济可能带来的负面影响.     

A Typology of Situational Factors: Impact on Salesperson Decision-Making about Ethical Issues

We explore two dimensions of situational factors expected to influence decision-making about ethical issues among sales representatives – universal vs. particular and direct vs. indirect. We argue that these distinctions are important theoretically, methodologically, and managerially. We test our hypotheses by means of a survey of 252 sales representatives. Our results confirm that considering universal and particular and direct and indirect situational factors contributes to our understanding of decision-making about ethical issues within a sales context, specifically willingness to engage in an unethical act. We also find that personal factors act independently and interact with situational factors in decision-making about ethical issues. Both demographic factors, age and gender, and personality factors, Machiavellianism and self-monitoring, have main effects on decision-making, and some of these factors interact with situational factors to affect decision-making. For example, age of the decision-maker (younger) and size of commission (larger) interact such that the likelihood of choosing an unethical alternative is greater.     

Disentangling the effects of organizational capabilities, innovation and firm size on SME sales growth

This paper focuses on certain drivers of SME sales growth related to knowledge and innovation. Building on the dynamic capabilities literature, we test whether two organizational capabilities (external sourcing and employee involvement in renewal activities) predict sales growth, and if so, whether such effects are mediated by process and/or product innovation. Based on survey data from a panel study of Dutch SMEs, and controlling for several firm characteristics (firm size, sector, age and family business), we conclude that external sourcing has direct effects on both product and process innovation, with an indirect effect (mediated by process innovation) on sales growth. In line with our hypothesis development, we also find that employee involvement, while positively affecting process innovation, has a negative effect on sales growth. Firm size moderates the effects of two of the variables (external sourcing and product innovation) on sales growth, with more positive effects found for the smallest firms, results supporting the nimbleness (versus resource-based) view.