Financial market integration,exchange rate policy,and the dynamics of business and employment in Korea

We study the consequences of different degrees of international financial market integration and exchange rate policies in a calibrated, medium-scale model of the Korean economy. The model features endogenous producer entry into domestic and export markets and search-and-matching frictions in labor markets. This allows us to highlight the consequences of financial integration and the exchange rate regime for the dynamics of business creation and unemployment. We show that, under flexible exchange rates, access to international financial markets increases the volatility of both business creation and the number of exporting plants, but the effects on employment volatility are more modest. Pegging the exchange rate can have unfavorable consequences for the effects of terms of trade appreciation, but more financial integration is beneficial under a peg if the economy is subject to both productivity and terms of trade shocks. The combination of a floating exchange rate and internationally complete markets would be the best scenario for Korea among those we focus on.     

Productivity,Preferences and UIP Deviations in an Open Economy Business Cycle Model

We show that a flex-price two-sector open economy DSGE model can explain the poor degree of international risk sharing and exchange rate disconnect. We use a suite of model evaluation measures and examine the role of (1) traded and non-traded sectors; (2) financial market incompleteness; (3) preference shocks; (4) deviations from UIP condition for the exchange rates; and (5) creditor status in net foreign assets. We find that there is a good case for both traded and non-traded productivity shocks as well as UIP deviations in explaining the puzzles.     

Heterogeneous workers and international trade

In this paper, I survey the recent theoretical literature that incorporates heterogeneous labor into models of international trade. The models with heterogeneous labor have been used to study how talent dispersion can be a source of comparative advantage, how the opening of trade affects the full distribution of wages, and how trade affects industry productivity and efficiency via its impact on sorting and matching in the labor market. Some of the most recent contributions also introduce labor market frictions to study the effects of trade on structural unemployment and on mismatch between workers and firms.     

我国服务贸易国际竞争力实证分析

本文运用TC指数、RCA指数、贸易结构和国际市场占有率对我国服务贸易国际竞争力进行了分析,通过分析表明我国服务贸易出口主要以资源和劳动密集型服务为主,对外服务贸易就整体而言国际竞争力还比较弱,并提出了加快提高我国服务贸易竞争力的对策。     

Time preference and two-country trade

We present a dynamic two-country model of international trade with endogenous time preference. We show that if the two countries have similar preferences, production technologies and labor endowments, there exists a unique and stable steady state such that both consumption and investment goods are produced in both countries. Unlike the case of constant time preferences, the steady state is independent of the initial international distribution of capital. We prove a dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin theorem such that the labor-abundant country exports the labor-intensive good.     

危机冲击与全球贸易波动的经验分析

本文对近二十年来历次危机冲击下全球贸易波动的特征进行经验比较后发现:贸易波动的幅度均高于经济波动幅度,同时贸易收入弹性值有逐步增大的趋势,而危机冲击时期贸易收入弹性值呈现明显的"放大性"并有出现负值的可能。因此,贸易增速历来高于经济增速的事实,很难准确解释危机冲击下的贸易大幅度波动。危机冲击下全球贸易波动特征的演进规律及其内在作用机制,应从国际分工演进和国际贸易自身特点入手,这是值得深入研究的大课题。     

国际原油价格波动对我国宏观经济影响的实证分析

本文首先运用现代非均衡经济理论分析国际原油价格对我国宏观经济的作用机制,发现国际原油价格与我国经济增长和PPI之间存在一定的关系。然后在结构VAR模型的基础上,讨论了国际原油价格波动对我国经济增长和PPI的动态影响。     

International financial integration and risk sharing among countries: A production-based approach

This paper develops a production-based model for analyzing a role of asset trade in pooling risks among countries and provides new evidence for the international consumption-output puzzle and risk sharing among countries. Efficient risk sharing rules among countries are the same as the conditions for full financial integration. Input prices and interest rates as well as technology shocks are found to be the driving variables for cross-country output co-movements. The international correlation puzzle reflects an inability to account for production risk sharing among countries in previous studies. The degree of international risk sharing is substantial relative to earlier estimates, which is largely realized from pooling production risks rather than consumption risks among countries.     

对广西国际金融创新的思考

对于广西这样一个基国际金融技术相对滞后的省份来说,如何在对外开放中进行国际金融创新以推进基础设施建设及贸易与金融的同步发展呢?本文在分析现状的基础上提出了对广西国际金融创新的几点思考。     

浙江省农产品国际竞争力的实证分析

本文分析了浙江省农产品贸易的发展现状和特点,并运用国际市场占有率(MS)、贸易竞争力指数(TC)、显性比较优势指数(RCA)对浙江省农产品国际竞争力进行实证测度,分析了浙江省现阶段农产品国际竞争力现状和变化趋势,表明浙江省农产品参与国际贸易的力度不够,发展潜力巨大,并就此提出了提升浙江省农产品国际竞争力的对策建议。     

从跨文化交际的角度看深圳的国际旅游软环境

在国际旅游中,游客不仅从一国到了另一国,更从他/她所熟悉的语言文化环境到了另一陌生的语言文化环境中,游客会有生理和心理等多方面的不适应,即“文化休克”。一个城市较好的旅游软环境对于减轻游客的“文化休克”,使游客能顺利愉快地旅游有着不可忽视的作用。本文从跨文化交际的角度分析了深圳的国际旅游软环境及其问题,提出了一些建设性的对策,对打造深圳国际化旅游城市的形象有着积极的意义。     

解构中美贸易顺差问题——试析生产全球化、国际产业转移之影响

近年来,随着中美之间贸易顺差的扩大,中美之间的贸易摩擦也成为各界关注的重点。本文尝试从经济全球化和产业国际转移角度来剖析中美贸易摩擦,以探求中美贸易顺差的合理性,同时对中美贸易衡量标准的选择和双方地位实质上的不平等问题进行了深入剖析,并从维护国际贸易增长全局方面提出了初步建议。     

中美经贸摩擦背景下全球新兴产业转移机理、特点及应对举措

中美经贸摩擦是现阶段影响全球新兴产业转移的重要因素.在探讨中美经贸摩擦对全球产业转移影响机理的基础上,从转移形式、转移内容、转移格局以及存在问题等维度分析中美经贸摩擦对国际新兴产业转移的影响特点,并借鉴发达国家历次全球产业转移浪潮的典型经验.提出中国需要强化关键核心技术攻关、强化对国际规则的研究、强化"引进—消化—吸收—再创新"的发展路径、强化自主创新自信提升原始创新能力.     

Financial Frictions,the Great Trade Collapse and International Trade over the Business Cycle

Open Economies Review - This paper investigates the impact of financial frictions on the dynamics of international trade over the business cycle and their role in the great trade collapse of...     

Trade, convergence, and globalisation: The dynamics of the international income distribution, 1950-1998

This paper investigates the evidence for convergence in per capita incomes across 115 economies during the period 1950-1998 and examines the impact that international trade had on this process. Drawing on trade-conditioning within a distribution dynamics framework, that explicitly models frequency distributions of the cross sections of economies over time, this study suggests that trade patterns in the Golden Age were conducive to the formation of middle and high income groups or clubs of economies, but similar trade patterns (dominated by the rich economies) do not seem to explain the perpetuation of these group formations in the post-Golden Age period. If foreign trade is a key aspect of globalisation, why does it matter in accounting for the observed dynamics of the international income distribution during the Golden Age, but not during the decades since the first oil-shock? Further, the evidence from the ergodic (long-run equilibrium) distribution suggests that in the long term the established trade patterns favoured the growth of the rich at the expense of the poor economies across the world.     

日本纺织服装产业升级及中日比较

日本纺织服装产业在面临本币升值、劳动力成本上升和贸易摩擦的内外升级压力下,通过产业转移、产品创新、淘汰落后产能,发展技术纺织品和时尚产业,提高了产品的附加值,完成了对纺织服装产业的改造。中国纺织服装产业虽然面临着与日本当年相似的升级压力,但也存在着相异特征如大国、区域发展不平衡、经济实力、制造业的核心竞争力、创新和产业政策的有效性等不如当年的日本。通过分析日本的纺织服装产业的调整过程和经验教训,并对中日纺织服装产业升级进行比较,本文提出了相应的政策建议。     

中日韩与东盟(10+3)税收协调研究

中日韩与东盟经济合作的现状决定了(10 3)国家间区域性税收协调的深度和广度。本文通过分析中日韩与东盟(10 3)区域税收国际协调现状、困难,提出了(10 3)税收国际协调应该遵循的原则,建议应建立中日韩与东盟(10 3)区域税收协调机制,以及消除货物、服务贸易中阻碍商品、人员自由流动、涉及投资所得等税收因素,以促进(10 3)国家间商品、资本、劳务、知识产权等的自由流动。     

反倾销、贸易政策不确定性与中国企业高质量出口

贸易摩擦和保护主义频发加剧了贸易不确定性。本文试图从反倾销引致的贸易政策不确定性(TPU)这一新视角阐述微观企业如何应对不利冲击以实现高质量出口。基于全球反倾销数据和高度细化的海关数据匹配得到的2000-2008年样本数据,利用高维面板固定效应估计模型,本文对TPU如何影响多产品企业高质量出口进行了实证检验。研究发现：①TPU提高,会倒逼企业升级出口产品质量,考虑逆向因果等潜在内生性问题之后,结果依然稳健。②企业内产品转换是TPU倒逼出口企业产品质量升级的主要作用机制。③异质性分析发现,加工贸易、外资企业、资本品行业和高技术行业中,这一倒逼效应更显著。在国际价值链断裂加剧贸易不确定性的新形势下,本文对于深刻理解TPU和高水平对外开放之间的关联具有重要意义。     

商业银行国际贸易融资汇率风险防范研究

国际贸易融资业务目前已成为许多国际性银行的主要业务之一。针对我国汇改后商业银行开展国际贸易融资业务中最主要的汇率风险,商业银行应利用金融衍生产品规避风险,并采取相应的对策措施。     

李嘉图模型中的技术进步与国际贸易摩擦

本文在拉尔夫.戈莫里、威廉.鲍莫尔和保罗.萨缪尔逊有关技术进步与国际贸易摩擦的研究基础上,提出一个四商品的国际贸易模型,对两种类型的技术进步与国际贸易摩擦进行统一分析。本文认为,只有在一定条件下,技术进步才会引起国际贸易摩擦,在这一条件以外,两国贸易均能够获得顺利发展。