Drivers and barriers to the adoption and diffusion of Sustainable Jet Fuel (SJF) in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Sustainable Jet Fuel (SJF) represents an important component of the airline industry's strategy to simultaneously reduce GHG emissions while meeting a growing demand for international air travel. SJFs also have the potential to provide fuel supply diversification and security, enhance fuel price stability and provide regional/rural economic development benefits. This paper measures and ranks perceived drivers and barriers to an economically viable SJF industry in a unique U.S. region, the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW), through personal interviews with key aviation fuel supply chain stakeholders conducted from June to September 2015. In addition to providing a fertile arena for this first effort to systematically assess these drivers and barriers, the U.S. PNW is unique due to the region's long strategic focus on aviation innovation and its importance to the regional economy, the seminal efforts in the region to outline a path forward on SJF beginning in 2010, and the relatively small population spread over a large geographic area with a limited number of “hub” airport nodes which geographically concentrates aviation fuel demand and distribution. Nineteen stakeholder interviewees acknowledge that, in order for regional SJF adoption-diffusion to occur, airline jet fuel buyers must drive the process, particularly as they deal with greenhouse gas (GHG) emission issues and related policy considerations. Important perceived barriers to SJF industry scale-up in the U.S. PNW include the high production costs of SJF and related issues, such as fuel logistics and quality control in the transport, storage, and blending of SJFs. Perceptions around chain-of-custody issues, such as blending, tracking, and crediting of SJFs and future SJF market share projections for the year 2030 were also examined. Incorporating stakeholder input into discussions about adding blended SJF into the U.S. aviation fuel supply provides needed insight for the biofuels industry, policymakers, and researchers.     

The role of turboprops in China’s growing aviation system

The Chinese aviation system is in a period of rapid growth, with significant growth in second tier and emerging cities. Lower density cities could be well served by regional aircraft, either regional jets or turboprops, which offer different qualities and a different future for Chinese aviation. Turboprops offer a high level of fuel efficiency compared with regional jets which may improve the cost economics for carriers and reduce the air quality and climate impacts of a growing aviation system in a region where air quality and greenhouse gas emissions are a serious concern. However, regional jets are known for their superior quality of service and faster travel speeds. We begin with a spatial analysis of existing Chinese short-haul aviation networks and find that turboprops are deployed in limited number and are dispersed throughout the country. Their limited use, however, is not because of their cost economics. For the existing regional jet network we estimate the trade space of fuel and time for the replacement of regional jets with turboprops and find that all regional jet routes in China would generate savings if replaced with turboprops. We next establish future short-haul aviation routes between new and emerging airports and estimate the likelihood that a turboprop will be used. The finding that the most viable turboprop markets are spatially dispersed through the country validates considering turboprop investment at the state-level as a component of the established Chinese aviation sustainability initiative.     

Unintended trajectories: liberalization and the geographies of private business flight

The global commercial aviation industry has undergone significant regulatory reform during the last 30 years. This paper explores something of the relationship between air transport liberalization and the growth of private business aviation and suggests that the sector’s development is largely an unintended consequence of the increasingly deregulated operating environment in that it has developed to overcome some of liberalization’s negative impacts, including delays, congestion, and perceptions of poor customer service. We argue that liberalization has created innovative market opportunities for private business aviation and illustrate how the sector’s operating models are facilitating new, as yet largely undocumented, forms of aerial mobility. The paper examines: the advantages of private business aviation over scheduled services; business strategies in the sector, especially the idea of fractional jets; the impact of new technologies, particularly the Very Light Jet (VLJ); and, finally, employs Europe as an example of the spatialities of private business aviation.     

The potential for European aviation CO2 emissions reduction through the use of larger jet aircraft

There is increasing pressure to reduce global CO₂ emissions, with aviation targeted as an industry with high future expected growth and limited potential for reduced emissions. In Europe, air transport is likely to be included in the Emissions Trading Scheme from 2012, allowing open trading with other sectors. The proposed scheme may be economically efficient but will it do much towards curbing aviation emissions? A number of papers have looked at the ETS impact on air traffic growth rates, and others have forecast the rate of likely future fuel efficiency gains. This paper examines the potential for greater fuel efficiency through the use of larger aircraft and different patterns of operation. Fuel efficiency was found to be related to aircraft size with more benefit from trading up with short/medium-haul than with long-haul aircraft. This relationship only held for long-haul aircraft if those aircraft with two main decks were removed from the sample (these types showing inherently lower fuel efficiency). Combining these findings with manufacturers' and other forecasts of average aircraft size suggests that less than 1% a year of fuel efficiency gains will be available from this source over the next 20 years.     

How influential factors affect aviation networks: A Bayesian network analysis

The aviation industry was the catalyst for the economic development of advanced cities, and there has been a close relationship between the development of cities' aviation industries and economic indexes. Researchers have long been interested in investigating which economic factors affect the passenger and cargo volumes of airports. By leveraging statistical analysis, most existing research only indicates the significant factors affecting aviation networks and quantifies the positive or negative relationship between those factors and aviation passenger volume. However, it is difficult to envisage how the degree of changes in economic factors affects aviation networks, especially passenger and cargo volume. This paper utilizes Bayesian network analysis to bridge this gap. The airport-level data collected from OAG was combined with city- or country-level economic data that are exploited to build the Bayesian network. We find that GDP and inflation directly influence passenger and cargo volume, while fuel prices directly influence only cargo volume. Both networks change with time, indicating that evolving external economic factors influence the network. This study is the pioneer in using Bayesian network analysis to analyze aviation networks. We identify how airport passenger and cargo volumes change with respect to different degrees of economic factors change. In addition, the Bayesian network exhibits the output in a probabilistic way to fully address the uncertainty worldwide. The findings could potentially facilitate policymakers’ decisions to improve global aviation network development.     

Fuel burn rates of commercial passenger aircraft: variations by seat configuration and stage distance

Aircraft fuel consumption is a very large component of airline costs. Fuel burn is also very important because it is highly correlated with emissions and contributes directly to transport externalities. This paper calibrates fuel burn in kilos per seat per nautical mile for aircraft using the EMEP/EEA aircraft inventory database. We then employ the model with OAG flight schedule data to evaluate fuel burn by flight routes and aircraft types at a global scale. The paper shows comparative fuel use among different distance based markets as well as among a variety of routes in the long-haul market. The results show geographical heterogeneity of fuel burn rates among a variety of routes, while controlling for seat configuration and stage distance. The paper finds that stage lengths centered on 1500–2000 NM have the lowest fuel burn rates under current technology, fleet composition, and seat configuration. These findings, together with comments on the viability of long range flights provide better understandings not only for the carbon taxation debates but also for operational efficiency of current aviation markets. The lower rates for moderate distance flights seems to favor networks without extreme links, and supports the use of a hub connection scheme.     

Determining the predictors for ease of sleep while on aircraft: Regression and qualitative analyses

BackgroundFactors predicting passengers’ ability to fall asleep and levels of sleep anxiety, while traveling on a commercial flight, are investigated through a two-study mixed design.MethodsData collected from approximately 400 participants contributed to the development and validation of multiple regression equations and model fit analysis; and participants responded to related open-ended questions.ResultsRegression equations yielded between two to seven predictors and predicted between 6.7% and 27.7% of the variance, ps < .001. Model fit was strong in all cases. An inductive qualitative approach provided detailed insight into passengers’ concerns and barriers over sleeping on a commercial flight.DiscussionAs the field of commercial aviation continues growing, researching and understanding passengers' experiences and perceptions is crucial to the success of the industry as consumers ultimately drive the market. Passengers’ perceptions of sleep quality on commercial aircraft is a key factor influencing their traveling decision. Therefore, a better understanding of this phenomenon can provide crucial information to future passengers, airline companies, regulatory agencies, and manufacturers, potentially influencing the future success of the aviation industry.     

A GHG reduction obligation for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) in the EU and in Germany

Despite various legal drivers already in place, a large-scale use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) is still missing. Thus, bringing SAF for GHG reduction reasons into the day-to-day business more effective market injection mechanisms are needed. In this context, direct and indirect effects of a greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction obligation in the EU and in Germany are analysed, considering an obligation level of 2% in 2023 increasing stepwise to 10% by 2030 following the goals derived from transport-related RED II targets. For such GHG reduction obligations referred to the entire EU 27 and the entire German aviation fuel uplifts, obligation induced SAF demands possibly exceed future SAF production quantities by a factor of about two without effective capacity expansion exceeding the published expansion plans. The considered SAF options lead to an aviation fuel price increases of 5–45% referring to a conventional aviation fuel price of 550 €/t. Aviation related EU ETS and German aviation tax revenues are mostly insufficient to significantly cover obligation-induced SAF costs or additional fuel costs. Fostering a broad spectrum of SAF technologies will thus require obligation related sub-mechanisms, due to (significantly) different SAF compliance costs. Thereby, sub-mandates represent the most effective approach. In terms of obligation avoidance measures, tankering – in contrast to three re-routing options considered – is likely to be economically feasible for airlines and requires appropriate countermeasures.     

COVID-19 pandemic and air transportation: Successfully navigating the paper hurricane

This paper aims to analyze and understand the impact of the corona virus disease (COVID-19) on aviation and also the role aviation played in the spread of COVID-19, by reviewing the recent scientific literature. We have collected 110 papers on the subject published in the year 2020 and grouped them according to their major application domain, leading to the following categories: Analysis of the global air transportation system during COVID-19, the impacts on the passenger-centric flight experience, and the long-term impacts on broad aviation. Based on the aggregated reported findings in the literature, this paper concludes with a set of recommendations for future scientific directions; hopefully helping aviation to prepare for a post-COVID-19 world.     

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on current tertiary aviation education and future careers: Students’ perspective

This study investigates Australian undergraduate tertiary aviation students' perceptions of the aviation industry and skills required to succeed following the COVID-19 pandemic. By developing an understanding of the skills students perceive to be necessary for their careers following the COVID-19 pandemic, comparisons can be drawn with industry perspectives to determine whether these perspectives align and, more importantly, support students’ successful development of skills as sought by the industry. An online survey of current undergraduate tertiary aviation students at Australian universities was conducted to determine the perceived impediments, additional skills required, post-graduation plans and how university courses should evolve post-COVID-19. The results show that students are cognisant of the current oversupply of aviation professionals due to the downturn in the industry and are seeking further support with the development of non-technical skills to better prepare themselves to be competitive following graduation. These findings have implications for both undergraduate aviation students and universities offering an undergraduate aviation program. By considering these findings universities can adapt their programs to better prepare students and support the development of skilled aviation professionals, equipped to deal with challenges of the post-COVID-19 aviation industry.     

Airline cost changes: To what extent are they passed through to the passenger?

Since the start of the Millennium airline costs have been highly volatile, mainly due to large fluctuations in jet fuel prices. An important question for airlines and regulators is whether airlines are able to pass through cost changes to their prices. Little empirical evidence on the pass-through of costs exists. In this paper, we investigate which pass-through rates are most likely. According to economic theory, the pass-through of costs depends strongly on the type of cost increase (firm-specific or sector-wide) and market conditions (monopoly, oligopoly, perfect competition). In monopolistic markets, the shape of the demand curve also matters (linear, constant elasticity, log, power function). A pass-through rate of 100% is often assumed based on the reasoning that the aviation sector is highly competitive. We analyse market concentration in all airline markets in the world, and generally find a high level of concentration. Additionally, different airlines offer different products based on a variety of factors, including service, flight frequency, legroom, bags allowed on board, flight time and transfer time. Therefore, most aviation markets can be characterised as differentiated oligopolies. As airlines choose their quantities first (flight schedules) and adapt their prices to demand (yield management), we consider the Cournot model the best choice. In such markets, firmspecific cost changes will be passed through by a rate of less than half while sector-wide cost changes are passed through by a rate of more than half. In specific situations, the pass-through rate may be different. Examples are limited airport capacity (congestion), cross-subsidization, and the extent to which there is a level playing field.     

The historical fuel efficiency characteristics of regional aircraft from technological, operational, and cost perspectives

To develop approaches that effectively reduce aircraft emissions, it is necessary to understand the mechanisms that have enabled historical improvements in aircraft efficiency. This paper focuses on the impact of regional aircraft on the US aviation system and examines the technological, operational and cost characteristics of turboprop (TP) and regional jet (RJ) aircraft. Regional aircraft are 40–60% less fuel efficient than their larger narrow- and wide-body counterparts, while RJs are 10–60% less fuel efficient than TPs. Fuel efficiency differences can be explained largely by differences in aircraft operations, not technology. Direct operating costs per revenue passenger kilometer are 2.5–6 times higher for regional aircraft because they operate at lower load factors and perform fewer miles over which to spread fixed costs. Further, despite incurring higher fuel costs, RJs are shown to have operating costs similar to TPs when flown over comparable stage lengths.     

Reform and opening up: Way to the sustainable and harmonious development of air transport in China

The global air transport has been undergoing wings of change in the past 30 years as a result of deregulation and liberalisation. During this period, the air transport in China has also been undergoing significant transformation and rapid growth following the reform and opening up policy of China since 1978, the same year when the USA enacted the Airline Deregulation Act. Although China has become the world's second largest air transport system since 2006, few studies have analyzed the growth pattern and policy evolution of this important market. This paper critically reviews the development of the air transport policy of China and examines the challenges in the 21st Century. Such an investigation leads to the following conclusions: (A) the reform of China's civil aviation has been based on the national policy in socialist market economy as well as the liberalisation of air transport; (B) the substantial growth in the last three decades has been driven by economic growth as well as the transformation of China's transport industry. (C) In order to sustain the rapid and continuous development in civil aviation, China should continue to implement scientific management and development, deepen the reform and opening up and continue liberalisation.     

Is spatial dispersal the dominant trend in air transport development? A global analysis for 2006–2015

The economic performance of a city or region is considered to be intertwined with its air travel capability. It is thus important for planners and stakeholders to understand the changes in the global aviation network. This study investigates the global aviation network, taking 10 years worth's OAG data from the years 2006–2015 and examines whether a spatial dispersal trend dominates the development of the aviation industry. It considers the aviation network at the airport level, and the airport–city level, which may consist of one or more airports. After clarification of the various definitions of concentration, we find that there appears a trend toward a dispersal pattern in the global aviation network at the airport level. On the other hand, there appears a slight concentration at the airport–city level. Besides, there have been some major capacity expansions at airports in the Middle East and East Asia, while the capacities of some traditional hubs in Europe and North America have become increasingly constrained since the 2008 global financial crisis. Furthermore, our study provides further observations consistent with the phenomenon of bypassing of traditional hubs, especially mega-hubs. Competition for passengers among hubs and secondary airports, especially in multi-airport cities, is discussed.     

Risks,resilience, and pathways to sustainable aviation: A COVID-19 perspective

This paper discusses the COVID-19 pandemic as an opportunity to reconsider the foundations of the global aviation system. There is much evidence that air transport creates opportunities as well as risks. While the former accrue to businesses and individuals, risks are imposed on society. Pandemics, in which aviation has a role as a vector of pathogen distribution, as well as the sector's contribution to climate change are examples of long-standing negative externalities that continue to be ignored in assessments of aviation's economic performance and societal importance. As commercial aviation has shown limited economic resilience throughout its history, this short paper questions whether a return to business-as-usual, supported by very significant State aid payments, is desirable. The volume growth model championed by industry and aviation proponents may have to be replaced with an alternative model of a slimmed air transport system that is economically less vulnerable and accounting for its environmental impacts.     

International standardization compliance in aviation

The commercial aviation industry is global in the sense that passengers travel around the world from destination to destination. It is also global in that the states of the world (countries) regulate the industry domestically and internationally. There is a unique stage where the world comes together to promote aviation, discuss ideas and establish international standards. This stage is the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). The 191 current member states signed treaties acknowledging their commitment to abiding by the standards and practices established by ICAO. No state is 100 percent compliant with international standards, however, and the purpose of this paper was to explore the relationship between the fulfillment of compliance by individual member states and the safety of the commercial aviation industry in terms of fatality rates. Using a Negative Binomial regression, the results suggested that there was a relationship between compliance with international safety standards and fatalities, as well as associations between fatality rates and member states levels of GDP and population. Implications of this research apply to all ICAO member states as the concerns grow over growing air travel and airspace congestion over the next several decades.     

Attitudes of ageing passengers to air travel since the coronavirus pandemic

The coronavirus pandemic has had a devastating impact on the demand for air transport. One passenger segment that has received relatively little attention is ageing passengers (defined as aged 65+), in spite of the fact that this group has been disproportionately affected by COVID-19, and in recent years has been viewed as a potential growth market. Therefore, the aim of this brief paper is to analyse the attitudes of ageing passengers by assessing air travel plans in the next 12 months, examining the factors influencing future flying decisions, and investigating the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on perceived risks and experiences associated with flying. The findings show that over 60% of ageing passengers are planning to travel by air in the next 12 months, although the nature of their trips may change. Factors such as flexible ticket booking and quarantine rules do not appear to be key drivers affecting travel decisions and within the different stages of the air journey, getting to/from the airport is perceived as the safest stage. The findings suggest that there are various COVID-19 implications for airlines and airports serving this market segment, ranging from the use of self-service technology, the generation of commercial/ancillary revenues and the design of surface access policies.     

Probabilistic assessment of fleet-level noise impacts of projected technology improvements

Demand projections for civil aviation have forecast increases in operations in future decades. Increases in demand are beneficial to the growth and advancement of the aviation industry, but also come with the threat of significant increase in environmental impacts. In response, the industry is focusing on programs to develop technologies for reductions in fuel burn, NO_x emissions, and noise. While aircraft-level impacts are an obvious metric of success, it is difficult to make informed robust technology investment decisions with respect to noise without understanding the fleet-level impacts. Fleet-level predictions of noise for technology explorations are especially complicated because it is computationally expensive, highly combinatorial, and airport-specific. Recently, rapid automated airport noise models have been developed, which can be simulated using Design of Experiments (DOE). The results of these simulations are used to generate surrogate models for airport noise contour area, which can be summed to yield a fleet-level impact. These models make use of simplifying assumptions to provide estimates of airport-level noise that are substantially cheaper to compute. They can be used to perform parametric trade-off analyses in conjunction with the equivalency assumption. Equivalency asserts that environmental impacts of a technology infused aircraft can be represented by scaled operations of the baseline aircraft in the same class. This simple assumption allows for the modeling of technology and market penetration factors under the same units: operations. This research uses surrogate models in conjunction with the equivalency assumption to examine two potential technology scenarios in a target forecast year, simulating technology and market performance factors to identify vehicle classes that could have the greatest impact in reducing contour area. Results show that technology and market performance of future notional Small Single Aisle and Large Single Aisle vehicle aircraft have the highest positive correlations with potential reductions in contour area.     

The politics of flying: aeromobile frictions in a mobile city

This article joins recent calls for greater attention to be paid to the politics of mobility. In particular, it examines how air transport is not only experienced inequitably among different social groups, but is also an activity whose access and opportunities are geographically distributed in uneven ways. Using Singapore as a candidate and foil to reflect on this issue, this paper interrogates how three ‘international’ legislative frameworks—air traffic rights, air navigation rules, and climate change initiatives—have variously limited the city-state’s potential to ‘move’ at different stages of its flying career. Despite the city-state’s widely-acclaimed aviation success, this paper demonstrates how it remains subject to the geopolitical actions of more dominant players, residing interstitially between being at the vanguard, and at the peripheries of global air traffic. It is suggested that further interrogations on how particular transport practices and configurations become salient in the world are needed.     

Commodity price pass-through in the US airline industry and the hidden perks of consolidation

How do changing jet fuel prices impact airline revenues? As expenses for jet fuel are one of the most relevant cost factors for airlines, their economic success largely depends on the ability to match changes on the cost side with an adaption on the revenue side. While previous studies primarily focused on the impact of fuel price changes to consumer prices, this paper empirically examines the ability of US airlines to pass-through lagged jet fuel prices to scaled operating revenues from an airline driven perspective. Our results suggest that the extent to which an exogenous increase in fuel prices can be passed on to revenues will deviate according to the competitive situation faced by an airline. Based on these findings our research should also be of interest for European policy makers who are discussing actions to exogenously increase jet fuel prices due to environmental reasons.