经济体制转型的平滑模式与突变模式

本文在剖析了把转型与改革割裂对立起来与用激进和渐进表述两种转型方式的流行观点的基础上,提出区分以中俄为代表的两种转型方式的根本标志是宪法性秩序转变方式的不同,并以此为据,将两种转型方式分别概括为经济体制转型的平滑模式和突变模式.     

现代化，人口转变与后人口转变

现代化是指人类从传统的农业社会向现代工业社会转变的历史过程。人口转变实际是现代化过程在人口发展中的体现,完整意义的人口转变,除涉及出生、死亡、自然增长等内容外,还应包括人口构成、人口素质等方面内容。从欧美国家实现现代化情况看,人口转变完成的主要标志是,人口城市化进程、非农化进程结束,人口进入零增长。中国目前正处在工业化过程的前期,现正向工业化中期逼进,中国目前不仅没有进入人口转变时期,更谈不上进入后人口转变时期。     

Investment in Transition Economies

Summary

All centrally planned economies suffered from overinvestment. Due to low capital productivity, reasonable growth rates in output could be maintained only with high investment/GDP ratios. Nevertheless, the sharp reduction in investment during transformational recession and its slow growth during subsequent recovery are viewed as negative phenomena, since transition economies offer numerous opportunities to increase output with relatively small targeted investment.

This paper seeks to develop and test two major hypotheses. The first one explains the behavior of aggregate investment during transition: we find that changes in external financing (current account balance), in the government budget deficit and in the institutional capacity of the state (as measured by the share of government revenues in GDP) explain up to 75% of the variations in investment/GDP ratios during transition, while the progress in reforms (cumulative liberalisation index) and in privatisation (share of the private sector in GDP) do not matter a great deal. With respect to sources of investment financing, there is some evidence that better investment performance is supported by budgetary funds, by credits to the private sector and by the strength of the stock market, whereas foreign aid is a substitute rather than a complement (i.e., it is negatively related to investment) and the inflow of foreign direct investment is not important.

The second hypothesis deals with the impact of investment on economic performance as measured by changes in GDP during transition: we find that differences in performance arc, in great part, associated not with investment patterns, but with varying marginal capital productivity. The latter in turn is determined mainly by differing magnitudes of restructuring required in various countries, i.e., by the distortions in industrial structure and trade patterns inherited from central planning, and by the institutional capacity of the state (as measured by the share of shadow economy and government revenues in GDP). The degree of liberalisation in this case appears to be a relatively important determinant of capital productivity, while the rates of inflation are not.     

Economic Transition

Abstract

Poland has become one of Eastern Europe's biggest success stories as an important emerging market and rapidly growing economy. However, transition from a centrally planned economy to a market economy has proven to be an enormous challenge in regard to the development and growth of small entrepreneurial ventures within the tourism and hospitality industry. The objective of this study is to examine the environment for growth and development of these enterprises after more than a decade of transition. The 2002 survey was conducted to examine various factors, such as: entrepreneurial disposition, entrepreneurial orientation, strategies, organizational factors, and environmental factors. A model of the entrepreneurial environment was used to analyze policy implications that can be used to assist in the growth and development of the tourism and hospitality industry in Poland and in the other countries in the region.     

现代化,人口转变与后人口转变

现代化是指人类从传统的农业社会向现代工业社会转变的历史过程.人口转变实际是现代化过程在人口发展中的体现,完整意义的人口转变,除涉及出生、死亡、自然增长等内容外,还应包括人口构成、人口素质等方面内容.从欧美国家实现现代化情况看,人口转变完成的主要标志是,人口城市化进程、非农化进程结束,人口进入零增长.中国目前正处在工业化过程的前期,现正向工业化中期逼进,中国目前不仅没有进入人口转变时期,更谈不上进入后人口转变时期.     

Human Transformation in the Transition Economies

Abstract

This paper discusses the human transformation in the transition economies exemplifying the case of Georgia in particular and analyzes the natures of homo Sovieticus, homo transformaticus, and homo economicus. It then argues that since homo economicus has some deficiencies and is thoroughly egoistic in nature, another model of man is to be found to explain his/her behaviours not only in the marketplace but also in the social life, and it introduces the model of man of society. Hypothesizing that individuals are in general men of society, this model is offered not only to make a paradigmatic transition from homo economicus to a real existing man/woman in a nonarbitrary fashion, but also to complement the homo economicus and thus to effectively deal with many problematic issues in the transformation period which is expected to lead to a democratic society with a balanced economy. The paper also includes the results of a survey conducted to find the evidence of man of society in the Georgian society.     

Exchange-rate Regimes and the Transition Process in the Western Balkans

Although the importance for successful transition of a monetary policy aiming at a sustainable price level has often been stressed in the academic literature, there is still ample room for further research into the choice of the exchange-rate system throughout the different phases of the transition process. This article deals with the question of how the choice of a specific exchange-rate system affects the economic success of a country in transition and, above all, its gradual integration into the European Union (EU) and European Monetary Union (EMU). It focuses on the transition process in five South-Eastern European countries (SEECs). The authors are grateful for valuable comments received from participants in the EUROFRAME 2006 Conference in Berlin, Germany, the ICMAIF 2007 Conference in Rethymno, Greece, and the EEFS 2007 Conference in Sofia, Bulgaria.     

中国民间商会功能变迁之规律探析

民间商会作为新兴的公共管理主体,在促进我国市场经济发展和推动政府职能转变的进程中发挥着重要的治理功能。然而,就中国民间商会的形成和发展而言,它却存在着不同于国外商会发展的特殊路径和角色定位。正是由于中国民间商会在功能履行的过程中受到多元治理因素的综合影响,最终形成了其集多种属性于一身的独特属性以及体制内外双重代理的职能运行规律。     

探路文化转型

策划前言上世纪80年代末,学术界关于美国霸权是否衰落。争论不休。1990年,约瑟夫·奈出版了《注定领导世界:美国权力性质的变迁》一书。在对保罗·肯尼迪等人的衰落派观点进行批驳之后,提出了软实力的概念。他认为,美国不仅拥有经济和军事等硬实力优势。还拥有文化、价值观和意识形态的软实力优势。     

实现绿色贸易转型——基于外贸部门"十二五"节能减排规划研究

一、绿色贸易转型的必要性（一）我国对外贸易对环境造成巨大压力过去30年,出口导向型的增长模式对拉动我国的经济增长做出了重大贡献,加入世贸组织以后,我国的对外贸易更是取得举世瞩目的成就。但是在贸易价值量顺差的同时,大量出口所产生的巨额环境逆差的凸显,形成了＂产品输出国外,污染留在国内＂的尴尬局面。     

Windfalls,Wealth, and the Transition to Self-Employment

We examine the transition to, and survival in, self-employment among a sample of British workers. We find evidence of capital constrains, with wealthier individuals being more likely to transit ceteris paribus. Windfall gains raise the probability of transition at a decreasing rate – gains or more than ￡20000–￡22000 reduce the probability of transition – and larger gains reduce the probability of transition amongst relatively wealthier respondents. We also find peculiarities in the effects of particular types of windfall; redundancy payments and inheritances raise the probability of transition, whilst lottery wins reduce the probability of (especially male) transitions. In contrast, inheritances (lottery wins) hinder (augment) self-employment survival.     

Europe’s Path Towards the Socio-Ecological Transition

Beset by an unprecedented combination of challenges including globalisation, demographic shifts, high unemployment and climate change, Europe is in dire need of a new kind of growth and development strategy. The authors of this Forum make compelling arguments for a socioecological transition, in which traditional measures of progress like GDP growth are downplayed in favour of factors such as social inclusion, environmental welfare, high levels of employment and the well-being of European citizens. This Forum explores some of the issues that must be resolved in order to fully achieve the socio-ecological transition, including the necessary decoupling of non-renewable energy use from GDP growth, the reduction of income and wealth inequalities, and the encouragement of innovation that is not based on fossil fuel technology. The Forum presents an optimistic path forward for the continent, with practical policy solutions that do not ignore the many obstacles facing a successful transition.     

当代台湾人口转变及其原因分析

2 0世纪 80年代初期 ,我国的台湾地区完成了第一次人口转变 ,接着很快步入第二次人口转变阶段。与其他发展中国家和地区相比 ,台湾的人口转变具有早且快的特点。本文运用人口转变理论分析战后台湾人口转变的过程 ,探讨其发生的原因 ,对我国大陆未来人口政策的研制具有一定的参照与思考价值。     

E-Business Education in Transition

ABSTRACT

The present study built on previous research to explore the development of e-business education in North America. Data was collected from college and university web sites on master's and bachelor's e-business programs. Findings suggest that the number of both types of e-business programs is increasing. The proportion of technical e-business courses in such programs also appears to be growing. This may reflect a move toward balanced treatment of technical and nontechnical e-business course content.     

Buyer-Seller Relationships in Transition

ABSTRACT

Two Russian case studies have been investigated by adopting a relationship marketing perspective and adding a new concept, that of relationship knowledge. Relationship knowledge is assumed to be the main condition for relationship success in terms of and is visible through the more efficient execution of activities and implementation of new resources. The conclusion is that in Russia, the inadequate levels of trust, commitment and business activity lead to low external knowledge of the counterpart, which hampers development.     

Enterprise Restructuring in Transition

Abstract

Poland in 1989 was faced with massive and unprecedented change. If we consider what communism was-an ideology, an economic system, a political system, a way of life-we can begin to appreciate the nature, scale, challenge and complexity of the change involved.

This paper evaluates how privatised, post-socialist Polish enterprises have responded to market conditions. In particular, it traces the management role in capitalist restructuring and adjustment to the wider aspects of economic transformation in Poland.

A general introduction is followed by case material from three privatised, post-socialist Polish enterprises. Conclusions reached demonstrate both continuity and change in management behaviour and adaptation to capitalism through incremental rather than radical adjustment strategies. Capitalist restructuring is, however, shown to be more radical and extensive with dominant MNC ownership and control.     

转型时期影响我国城乡居民居住消费的因素分析——中国居住消费函数构造

经济转型30年是我国城乡居民居住消费快速增长的一个时期,但近年来存在价格过高、投资波动、消费不振等现象。在当前因次贷危机引发的世界性经济危机期间,通过刺激居住消费需求带动经济回暖,具有重要的现实意义。转型时期我国城乡居民居住消费,基本不能用完全消费保险假设来解释而能较好地适用持久性收入/生命周期理论;城乡之间居住消费模式具有一定差异,农村居民居住消费较多地受当期收入变动的影响,而城镇居民更多地受持久性收入影响。