基于主成分分析的上市公司财务危机预警模型研究

本文以我国上市公司为研究对象,选取2009年被ST的上市公司作为财务危机样本组,共61家,同时选取与财务危机组同行业,资产规模在10%差异之内的61家非财务危机上市公司作为配对样本,共计122家(61组)上市公司的财务数据进行研究。从这61组中随机选取31组配对样本作为学习样本组,用来构建财务困境预测模型,另外30组样本作为检验样本组,用来检验预测模型的有效性。     

中小板上市公司财务预警与实证分析

本文以我国深沪两地上市公司A股为研究对象,采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法,从基础指标中确定了5个指标作为模型指标(模型自变量),以这些样本企业发生财务危机前一年和前两年的数据资料为基础,建立了我国上市公司的Logistic模型.该模型的回代结果显示:在企业发生财务危机前一年,Logistic模型的回代准确率94.2%;在企业发生财务危机前两年,Logistic模型的回代准确率86.5%.最后,本文又选取了38家中小板上市公司(2004年上市),利用发生财务危机前一年的Logistic模型对其进行财务预警.     

基于现金流量的上市公司财务危机预警研究

本文以2010年沪深股市124家ST和非ST公司为样本,建立基于现金流量的财务指标体系,运用统计方法筛选指标,然后构建Logistic回归财务危机预警模型。研究结果表明:模型预测准确率达到了83.9%,其中上市公司的自由现金流和股权现金流对财务危机的预测影响很大。     

我国制造业上市公司财务预警研究

随着我国经济体制的不断改革,企业面对日益激烈的竞争,其陷入财务危机甚至破产的风险也越来越大。上市公司作为我国证券市场的基石,其质量好坏与证券市场的稳定与发展息息相关。而占据我国上市公司一半以上的制造业公司,更是国民经济的重要组成部分。证监会实施特别处理机制以来,先后有上百家公司被ST,其中大部分为制造业公司。因此,研究制造业公司的财务预警模型,以便于提前预测是否会发生财务危机,具有重大意义。本文在借鉴该领域前人的研究成果上,以国内制造业上市公司为样本,以是否被ST作为判别财务危机的标志,采用多元判别分析法,根据上市公司发布的2008年财务数据,建立了这类公司的财务预警模型。同时使用2010年数据对模型进行了检验。本文结论表明,我国证券市场的数据是有效的,所建立的模型能够得到较高的正确率。     

基于RS-LSSVM制造业上市公司财务危机预警模型

针对制造业上市公司财务危机影响因素多、 各影响因素之间相互关联、 样本信息采集困难等问题， 本文结合财务危机理论构建了上市公司财务危机影响因素指标体系， 基于粗糙集理论融合最小二乘支持向量机方法， 提出了制造业上市公司财务危机预警模型， 预警了未来 ３ 年的财务危机情形， 对比了该模型与传统的最小二乘支持向量机的预测效果。 结果表明， 粗糙集融合最小二乘支持向量机能够有效提高预警效率， 反映各控制因素对上市公司财务危机的影响， 计算结果与样本值拟合精度较高， 满足实际应用要求。     

企业财务危机预警指标筛选探究

选择合适的财务指标来描述预警模型对提高预测的精度至关重要。运用显著性分析和因子分析法,对企业财务危机预警的备选指标进行筛选,并选择了76家上市公司为样本进行实证研究。通过两次筛选,最终得到由7个预警指标组成的全面互斥的财务危机预警指标体系。为进一步的财务危机预警评价提供参考。     

基于Logistic回归模型的建材业上市公司财务预警研究

在当前房地产调控政策下,我国建材业上市公司面临着巨大的财务危机。论文对24家建材业上市公司2009年、2008年的财务指标进行了基于Logistic回归模型的财务预警实证分析,并利用上述模型及2010年的财务数据对样本公司2011年的财务状况进行了预测,继而给出了财务风险应对策略,以期我国建材业上市公司能够走出财务困境,走上健康发展的道路。     

房地产上市公司财务风险识别及处置措施研究

论文以我国沪深两市8家房地产上市公司为研究样本,采用上市公司发生财务危机前2年的实际财务数据,选用主成分分析方法建立了财务风险识别模型,进行财务风险识别,并提出了房地产企业财务风险控制以及财务风险处置措施,如降低资产负债率、合理安排收款计划、加快房地产的变现等,为房地产企业进行财务风险管理提供参考。针对该类公司财务风险管理方面存在的一些问题提出了相应的解决对策,即调整资产负债结构、加强对外担保管理等。     

民营化公司盈余质量的下降趋势分析

体制因素下的价值转移与再分配假说和监管理论提供了民营化公司盈余质量下降的理论基础.利用1999～2005年154家民营化上市公司以及民营化公司及其配时的221家上市公司样本.通过实证检验发现:比起民营化之前的国有上市公司以及同行业同规模同时上市但没有民营化的国有上市公司,民营化公司的盈余质量有显著下降的趋势.但这种下降趋势不具有持续性.稳健性检验也支持我们的结论.这种结论弥补了民营化效应的研究中关于盈余质量研究的不足.     

内部控制有效性与企业绩效的关系研究——来自上海A股上市公司的经验证据

近年来内部控制在我国越来越得到重视,但是内部控制作为一项控制措施是否提高了企业经营效率还缺乏实证证据。为了研究内部控制的有效性与企业绩效的相关关系,本文通过以2010年沪市A股的976家上市公司为样本,对企业内部控制的有效性与企业绩效的关系进行实证检验。结果表明我国上市公司的内部控制制度的建立和完善确实对企业价值有较大的促进作用。     

战略性新兴产业选择：从政策解读到理论评判

发展战略性新兴产业是提高我国经济发展质量效益的重要举措,得到了各地政府的积极响应.但战略性新兴产业在迅猛发展的同时也遇到了诸多问题,产业选择和布局不合理是制约其健康发展的主要因素之一.战略性新兴产业是战略性产业与新兴产业的交集,既有一般产业的共同特征,又有“战略”和“新兴”的特殊性.文章从“战略性”和“新兴性”的经济学内涵出发,分析了战略性新兴产业的产业规模、产业组织和产业技术特征,构建了基于产业经济学理论的选择指标体系,为进一步深化该领域研究搭建了基础平台.     

Strategic assets and organizational rent

We build on an emerging strategy literature that views the firm as a bundle of resources and capabilities, and examine conditions that contribute to the realization of sustainable economic rents. Because of (1) resource-market imperfections and (2) discretionary managerial decisions about resource development and deployment, we expect firms to differ (in and out of equilibrium) in the resources and capabilities they control. This asymmetry in turn can be a source of sustainable economic rent. The paper focuses on the linkages between the industry analysis framework, the resource-based view of the firm, behavioral decision biases and organizational implementation issues. It connects the concept of Strategic Industry Factors at the market level with the notion of Strategic Assets at the firm level. Organizational rent is shown to stem from imperfect and discretionary decisions to develop and deploy selected resources and capabilities, made by boundedly rational managers facing high uncertainty, complexity, and intrafirm conflict.     

新兴产业对经济发展的时变性影响——来自京津冀地区的经验分析

本文建立了带有随机波动率的时变参数向量自回归模型（SV-TVP-VAR），以京津冀地区为研究对象，分析了不同时期新兴产业发展对地区生产总值、财政收入以及就业的影响。研究结果发现：（1）新常态时期新兴产业的发展对京津冀经济状况的影响程度大于在全球经济危机时期和经济高速发展时期的影响程度，但在大部分时期新兴产业的发展都只会对京津冀的经济状况产生负向效应；（2）如果经济增长是首要经济目标，天津应该加强新兴产业的发展，如果就业是首要经济目标，河北应该加强新兴产业的发展。     

Revisiting the firm,industry, and country effects on profitability under recessionary and expansion periods: A multilevel analysis

Research summary: Despite voluminous past research, the relevance of firm, industry, and country effects on profitability, particularly under adverse contexts, is still unclear. We reconcile institutional theory with the resource‐based view and industrial organization economics to investigate the effects of economic adversity, such as the 2008 global economic crisis. Using a three‐level random coefficient model, we examine 15,008 firms across 10 emerging and 10 developed countries for the 2005–2011 period. We find that firm effects become stronger under adversity, whereas industry effects become weaker, as well as country main and interaction effects, particularly among the emerging economies. These findings confirm our assumptions that the firm's own fate is, to a great extent, self‐determined; a reality that is even more pronounced during periods of extreme economic hardship. Managerial summary: In this research, we examine how generalized economic adversity affects the balance across the firm‐, industry‐, and country‐specific factors determining firm profitability. We specifically examine 15,008 firms from 10 emerging and 10 developed countries during the 2005–2011 period to investigate the effects of the 2008 global economic crisis on firm performance. We find that in such adverse conditions, the role of the industry and the country are reduced and the firm's own resources and capabilities become more pertinent for firm performance. This phenomenon is more pronounced across emerging markets. We conclude that the firm's own fate is, to a great extent, self‐determined, a reality that is markedly more evident during periods of extreme economic hardship. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应研究——基于Malmquist指数和我国行业面板数据的实证研究

本文利用2004～2011年我国行业的面板数据,用非参数的Malmquist指数的方法测算中国八大行业的全要素生产率,通过GMM方法分析我国对外直接投资传导的国际研发存量和我国的研发存量以及两者的交互项对这8个行业的全要素生产率的影响,以便了解对外直接投资的逆向技术溢出效应。实证结果表明：现阶段国内各相关行业通过对外直接投资途径传导的国外逆向技术有一定的溢出效应,但对技术进步的影响并不显著;只有在国内研发和其他方面的投入跨越一定的门槛值后,才能使我国对外直接投资产生逆向技术溢出效应。      

Perfect timing? Dominant category,dominant design,and the window of opportunity for firm entry

The optimal time to enter emerging industries is a key concern in strategy, yet scholars struggle to create a theoretical foundation that can integrate conflicting empirical findings. We incorporate categorical dynamics to industry life cycle theory to enhance existing entry timing theories. We introduce the concept of a dominant category—the conceptual schema that most stakeholders adhere to when referring to products that address similar needs and compete for the same market space—linking it to the dominant technological design and entry‐timing advantages. In particular, we propose the existence of a window of opportunity for firm entry that starts with the emergence of the dominant category and ends with the emergence of the dominant design. © 2013 The Authors. Strategic Management Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

PIMS and BCG: New horizons or false dawn?

Strategic market opportunities arise either because a firm is exceptionally well placed competitively or because it recognizes the opportunity, on the basis of private information, before others. Strategic market analysis must reflect these two possible routes to attractive opportunities. Both the approaches developed by the Strategic Planning Institute (SPI) through its Profit Impact of Market Strategy (PIMS) and the Boston Consulting Group's (BCG) growth/share matrix fail to reflect the full impact of competitive expectations and risk. Analysis of PIMS data should be directed more towards generalities of limited direct economic significance whereas the BCG approach should be used mostly in the context of experience curve effects. Neither approach should dominate a full analysis of the specific nature and critical ambiguities in any strategic option.     

Network policy formation between idealist and strategic models: a political economy perspective from Turkey

Two models of telecom reform, the Idealist and the Strategic, can be applied to the network policy formation process. The Idealist model, which is manifested in the rhetoric of the emerging global governance regime of telecommunication networks, amounts to a policy of exclusion in developing countries not only in the sense of teledensity, but also regarding the network policy formation process as well. The scope of the policy sphere has been reduced to purportedly competitive markets ignoring socio-economic development, the economy as a whole, local production and technology capabilities, research and development, innovation systems and the potential for using markets as instruments. Disconnecting long-range planning of the government and “independent regulator's” policies can be added to the list of excluded possibilities. Based on Turkey's experience, the strategic model is more appropriate both for understanding the formation of network policies and for designing participatory policy formation mechanisms. As the number of agents involved in the policy formation process diversifies and increases in the true sense, outcomes more closely resemble a Strategic approach. Thus, in trying to understand network policy formation, a new dimension should be added to the Strategic/Idealist dichotomy: top–down or participatory.     

Critical Technology Management Issues of New Product Development in High-Tech Companies

This article reports the results of a study of management of technology issues (unresolved technology management problems) in the new product development (NPD) processes of high-tech product companies. Using a three-questionnaire DELPHI methodology that includes academic and industry participants, the study ranks 24 technology management issues of NPD in terms of importance. A dominant "Number One Issue" is identified as Strategic Planning for Technology Products.     

Sources, characteristics and effects of emerging technologies: Research opportunities in innovation

Diverse technological developments across information technology, biotechnology, nanotechnology, and satellite communications technology are dramatically altering industry landscapes, with important economic and policy implications. Not surprisingly, therefore, managers are challenged to develop strategies to cope with the threats posed by emerging technologies and leverage the opportunities posed by them. Indeed, there is growing anecdotal evidence that firms' inabilities to cope with emerging technologies have produced high product and firm failure rates.From an academic perspective, I argue that emerging technologies have important distinctive features that have not been examined in current theory in marketing, and specifically, in organizational innovation. In this article, I identify several research questions that emerge from the sources, characteristics and effects of emergent technologies in the area of organizational innovation. Insights generated from such a line of inquiry have the potential to broaden the canvas of innovation theory and provide valuable insights to managers who confront these onerous challenges on a daily basis.