Going multilateral? Financial markets' access and the League of Nations loans, 1923–8

Why are international financial institutions important? This article reassesses the role of the loans issued with the support of the League of Nations. These long‐term loans constituted the financial basis of the League's strategy to restore the productive basis of countries in central and eastern Europe in the aftermath of the First World War. In this article, it is argued that the League's loans accomplished the task for which they were conceived because they allowed countries in financial distress to access capital markets. The League adopted an innovative system of funds management and monitoring that ensured the compliance of borrowing countries with its programmes. Empirical evidence is provided to show that financial markets had a positive view of the League's role as an external, multilateral agent, solving the credibility problem of borrowing countries and allowing them to engage in economic and institutional reforms. This success was achieved despite the League's own lack of lending resources. It is also demonstrated that this multilateral solution performed better than the bilateral arrangements adopted by other governments in eastern Europe because of its lower borrowing and transaction costs.     

Sovereign Risk Premia and the International Balance Sheet: Lessons from the European Crisis

The external dimension has emerged as an important factor in the euro debt crisis. The crisis has also shown that fluctuations in risk premia can be dramatic. We investigate the relevance of the net international investment position for sovereign risk perception and the role of market uncertainty in this relation. Furthermore, we ask whether the composition of net external assets, in terms of debt and equity instruments, is relevant in explaining sovereign risk premia and their fluctuations in time. We find that both public debt and NIIP are subject to fluctuations in risk premia; the external variable is more sensitive to the uncertainty of future expectations, and net external debt is what drives this result. Net foreign debt liabilities are associated with a lower government bond yield spread when market optimism justifies their presence with high future growth patterns; however, it becomes an important risk factor for sovereigns when global uncertainty increases and the capacity to repay foreign debt becomes a concern. Portfolio equity and FDI are related to sovereign risk in a stable manner, while a given amount of net external debt can be associated with government yield spread spikes as high as 4 %.     

Sovereign Spreads and Contagion Risks in Asia

In the aftermath of the recent global financial turmoil, sovereign spreads have exhibited a significant degree of volatility. This paper explores how much of these movements in the spreads of Asian economies reflected shifts in global risk aversion or country‐specific risks, directly from worsening fundamentals, or indirectly from spillovers originating in other sovereigns, or risks and uncertainty surrounding their exchange rates. This analysis finds that earlier in the crisis, the increase in market‐implied contagion led to an increase of sovereign bond yields relative to the swaps. Higher‐rated sovereign bonds in Asia benefited from the flight to quality that accompanied the increase in global risk aversion during this period. Once the systemic risks in the financial sectors worldwide were contained, the risk of sovereign spillovers eased, which, together with a fall in perceived currency‐related risks, led to a fall in sovereign bond yields relative to swaps yields across the board. Comparing the situation to that of Europe, the present paper concludes that the debt crisis in the euro area has not affected the perception of sovereign risks of Asian economies. In fact, a fall in exchange rate and spillover risks, combined with stronger fundamentals, have led to a continued normalization of Asian sovereign spreads since the height of the financial crisis.     

From imperial to regional trade preferences: Its effect on europe’s intra- and extra-regional trade

From Imperial to Regional Trade Preferences: Effect on Europe's Intra- and Extra-Regional Trade. - Europe's switch from imperial to regional trade preferences has certainly raised the share of its trade that is intra-regional, but this does not necessarily mean Europe is becoming less economically integrated with the rest of the world. This paper shows that the propensity for European GDP to be traded with non-Europeans - which trebled during the hundred years to 1928 - has fallen little since then. The reason is that the re-direction of Europe's trade has been accompanied by a considerable degree of opening up to trade with non-Europeans. Data are also presented for Eastern and Western Europe separately from 1928. The hope is that Europe's latest regional integration initiatives will be able to continue this trend, rather than lead to a “Fortress Europe” outcome.     

The Danish agricultural revolution in an energy perspective: a case of development with few domestic energy sources

This article examines the case of Denmark—a country which historically had next to no domestic energy resources—for which new historical energy accounts are presented for the years 1800–1913. It demonstrates that Denmark's take‐off at the end of the nineteenth century was relatively energy dependent. This is related to Denmark's well‐known agricultural transformation and development through the dairy industry, and thus the article complements the literature which argues that expensive energy hindered industrialization, by arguing that similar obstacles would have precluded other countries from a more agriculture‐based growth. The Danish cooperative creameries, which spread throughout the country over the last two decades of the nineteenth century, were dependent on coal. Although Denmark had next to no domestic coal deposits, this article demonstrates that Danish geography allowed cheap availability throughout the country through imports. On top of this it emphasizes that another important source of energy was imported feed for cows.     

The Danish trading companies of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries

Abstract

The great trading companies form one of the characteristic features of the economic history of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. This is true of Europe generally, and of Denmark in particular. The charter for the first Danish trading company, the East India Company, was issued by king Christian IV on 17 March 1616. And on 21 March 1792, king Christian VII appended his signature to the last company charter, that for the Asiatic Company. The seventeenth and eighteenth centuries thus form a well-defined period with regard to the trading companies as far as Denmark is concerned. There were simply no companies prior to 1600. And when the Asiatic Company was wound up in 1843 after a death struggle which had lasted for more than a generation, the last of the companies vanished. But within this 200-year period there had existed at least twenty Danish trading companies - depending on how trading companies are defined and how their founding and reconstruction are interpreted. At all events the number of them is large by European standards. In fact the concentration of companies in Denmark is even more pronounced, for of the twenty companies, eighteen were founded within a period of only 125 years, between 1656 and 1782. A comparison with the concentration of companies in other European countries during this period is not easy. The literature is diffuse, and the problems of classifying the individual companies as solely or predominantly trading companies are great. But there is scarcely any doubt that Denmark would occupy a high position on any comparative list during this 125-year period — and it is not unlikely that this marginal region of the European economy might come highest on the list.     

Bank dependence and financial constraints on investment: Evidence from the corporate bond market paralysis in Japan

This paper investigates whether firms are able to substitute bank loans for public debt when the latter become less available to firms. To do so, this paper utilizes the 2008 financial crisis and its impact on Japanese markets as a natural experiment. Because the Japanese banking sector remained functional while the corporate bond markets were paralyzed, the data from Japan during this period provide us with an ideal environment to examine this hypothesis. I specifically examined whether firms with large holdings of corporate bonds maturing in FY2008 were financially constrained, by comparing the changes in their capital investment expenditures and borrowing conditions with those of bank-dependent firms. The main empirical results indicate that (1) firms with large holdings of corporate bonds maturing in FY2008 did not reduce investment expenditures; (2) instead, they exhibited higher increments in bank loans; and (3) firms that maintained relatively close bank-firm relationships had greater access to bank loans with low borrowing costs. These findings demonstrate that Japanese firms were able to substitute bank loans for public debt during the crisis and imply that the Japanese banking sector worked efficiently to replace public debt markets during the crisis.     

Money on the road to empire: Japan's adoption of gold monometallism, 1873–971

In the macro‐economic literature, Japan has at several times been treated as a canonical example of why countries joined the gold standard. On the one hand, the country has been linked to the argument that there exists a relationship between the gold standard and lowered borrowing costs; on the other hand, it has been discussed as motivated by a desire to expand its trade with gold standard countries. This article argues against both strands in the literature, and argues for a third interpretation. It demonstrates that the specificities of Japan's gold standard reveal a concern with ‘original sin’, or the impossibility of raising foreign loans in Japan's own currency, and explains that there were grave costs to gold standard adoption.     

The LDC external debt and the euromarkets: The impressive record and the uncertain future

This paper deals in detail with the volume and nature of LDC borrowing in the eurocurrency markets over the past 10 years. The factors affecting borrowing and lending on the euromarket are discussed, followed by an evaluation of the terms and conditions attached to euromarket loans. These borrowing activities, which have grown considerably recently, are analysed with a view towards clarifying a number of major issues related to the general problem of the increasing LDC external indebtedness and to the future of financial relations between the LDCs and the rest of the world economy.     

A panel study of zombie SMEs in Japan: Identification,borrowing and investment behavior

Utilizing a panel dataset of firms for the period 1999–2008, we estimated the prevalence of zombies among Japanese Small- and Medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and their borrowing and investment behaviors. We observe that 4–13% of SMEs were zombie firms during the period 1999–2008. The estimation of the borrowing function reveals that SME zombie firms did not change their loans in response to a change in land values due to evergreening. We also observe that the profitability of investment, measured by marginal q, did not have positive effects on investments of zombie firms. This indicates that investment increase resulting from evergreen loans was not necessarily productive or profitable.     

The great divergence and the economics of printing†

While China's invention of printing took place several centuries ahead of Europe's, it was in Europe where the more advanced printing technology of movable type took hold and where book production reached far higher levels. This article explores the extent to which China's complex logographic writing system explains these different outcomes. Using an economic analysis, I show how China's preference for block printing technology over movable type can be justified as the rational choice of commercial producers. In addition to this, model simulations also predict that movable type would be used in China under some specific circumstances which closely match the historical record. On the other hand, the use of block printing would not have led to larger printing costs in China, and as such should not be regarded as the reason behind China's modest level of book production when compared to Europe's.     

Bailouts,Inflation, and Risk-Sharing in Monetary Unions

This paper presents a new rationalization for bailouts of sovereign debt in monetary unions, such as those observed during the recent Euro crisis. It introduces a model where member countries of the monetary union are ex-ante identical, and each derives utility from consumption and disutility from the union-wide inflation rate. The union’s central bank is utilitarian and lacks commitment. Countries borrow or save in a market for nominal sovereign debt in response to idiosyncratic income shocks, with countries that receive positive income shocks saving and countries that receive negative income shocks borrowing. Ex post, the monetary union’s central bank will attempt to devalue sovereign debt through surprise inflation, as this will redistribute income from rich creditor countries to poor debtor countries. Creditor countries choose to bailout debtor countries because bailouts will weaken the redistributive motives of the central bank and forestall surprise inflation. As bailouts in this environment constitute a payment from lucky creditor countries to unlucky debtor countries, they mimic a risk-sharing arrangement that insures against income shocks. The payments made by creditor countries are incentive-compatible due to the shared currency and inflation rate in the monetary union. This ability of countries to provide each other with incentive-compatible insurance constitutes a novel theory of optimal currency areas. This insurance benefit of the monetary union is largest for countries with negatively correlated income shocks, in contrast to the classic Mundell-Friedman optimal currency area criterion.

     

Ancient and early modern mortality: experience and understanding1

This article discusses the various problems associated with the derivation of mortality measures for ancient Greece and Rome. It outlines two new sets of high mortality model life tables that describe the experiences of such populations more effectively than existing models. The issue of ‘demographic borrowing’ is also considered, particularly the use of early modern Europe and East Asia as sources for analogies, together with the ways in which the mortality component of historical demographic regimes has been represented and interpreted.     

Fiscal risks and their impact on banks' capital buffers in South Africa

South Africa's fiscal balances have deteriorated significantly over the last decade, although the economy has been recording disappointing economic growth rates even prior to the COVID-19 crisis. In this paper, we estimate a series of equations to test how sovereign risk premia affect capital buffers, while controlling for variables identified in the literature, such as size of banks and the economic cycle. Unlike other studies, we use actual capital buffers. We show that these are substantively different to the proxy buffers calculated using the common approach in the literature, indicating that results based on proxy measures should be interpreted with caution. Our overall results show a positive relationship between the sovereign risk premium and capital buffers. This suggests that banks are accumulating capital to mitigate against fiscal and other domestic policy risks. It is likely that this is contributing to higher lending rates.     

Revisiting Sweden’s response to the Great Depression of the 1930s: economic policy in a regional context

This intra-Scandinavian comparison provides a corrective to existing comparative literature on Sweden's response to the Great Depression at three levels: policy conception, case selection and mode of explanation. The paper's holistic view of economic policy shows that the Swedish response was not just about fiscal policy. A broadly defined Swedish response becomes even less distinctive when compared with its Danish and Norwegian counterparts. The paper makes three points to explain the intra-Scandinavian variation (convergence and divergence). First, the regional-metropolitan context matters. Facing similar international challenges, the three small states developed a defensive reflex by striking domestic compromises, abandoning the gold standard, devaluing their currencies and effecting monetary expansion. Second, the political-economic development experience matters. On one hand, proportional representation entrenched Scandinavian farmers as a critical political force, thus ensuring agricultural protectionism across the region. On the other hand, the cross-national divergence in industrialisation largely shaped industrial policy: Sweden’s relative trade and domestic liberalism sharply contrasted with Denmark’s exchange controls and Norway’s import substitution. Third, ideology matters. Whereas the Danish Social Democrats’ traditional liberalism and their Norwegian counterparts’ radicalism buttressed fiscal orthodoxy, the Swedish Social Democrats’ ideational and programmatic renewal paved the way for the fiscal experiment of the crisis years.     

Debt disorganization in Japan

Business transactions shrank in the early 1990s in Japan, and banks rolled over significant amounts of non-performing loans to keep non-viable firms afloat. Why did firms became inactive even though banks continued providing loans? In order to solve this problem, we focus on the nature of debt contracts as a commitment device. By rolling over bad loans, the banks might have destroyed (unintentionally) the trustworthiness of the commitments of the debtors, thereby breeding distrust among firms. The rise of distrust could then have disorganized chains of productions.We conducted an empirical analysis to check this hypothesis. Our empirical results are supportive of this line of thinking, suggesting that the Japanese economy might have suffered from disorganization due to the rollover of bad debts.     

The strange birth of liberal Denmark: Danish trade protection and the growth of the dairy industry since the mid‐nineteenth century1

The usual story of the ‘first era of globalization’ at the end of the nineteenth century sees Denmark as something of an outlier: a country which, like the UK, resisted the globalization backlash in the wake of the inflow of cheap grain from the New World, but where agriculture, rather than going into decline, in fact flourished. Key to the success of Danish agriculture was an early diversification towards dairy production. This article challenges this simple story which sees Denmark as something of a liberal paragon. Denmark's success owed much to a prudent use of trade policy which favoured dairy production. Moreover, this favouritism continued even after a more general movement to free trade in the 1860s. Using micro‐level data from individual dairies, we quantify the implied subsidy to dairy production from the tariffs, and demonstrate that in many cases this ensured the profitability of individual dairies.     

A Tale of Two Peripheries: Real Wages in Denmark and New Zealand 1875–1939.

Abstract

Denmark achieved dramatic real wage growth after 1870, compared to other European economies and to those of the New World. The ingredients of Denmark's success are gauged by comparison with one its major competitors in the British food-products markets, New Zealand. Faster Danish productivity growth explains only part of Denmark's faster real wage growth. Open economy forces, chiefly international capital flows before 1913, and especially Danish trade union militancy around the end of World War I, influenced income distribution and especially favoured wages over property income in Denmark. Denmark's GDP per capita equalled New Zealand levels between the world wars but her real wages surged past those of New Zealand as distributional shifts favoured Denmark's wage earners.     

Denmark and the OEEC, 1948–1959

Abstract

By the late 1940s, the Danish economy was dependent on competitive and specialised agricultural exports to the British and German markets, In the 1930s and 1940s, protective barriers had given rise to a home-market-oriented industry that secured the main part of urban employment. As a small country with low tariffs and a high foreign trade dependency Denmark embraced the Marshall Plan and the OEEC. However, due to its particular structure of foreign trade and the protectionist measures the Danish economy was vulnerable to the imbalances of the OEEC's Trade Liberalisation Programme, The Danish response was to commit the large economies to the legal framework within the OEEC. In the mid-1950s the Danish government turned to a more aggressive strategy combining the advocacy for liberalisation and freer agricultural trade with a deliberate delay of the liberalisation of industrial protection, While the Nordic customs union had little chance of seeing the light of day in the 1940s and early 1950s, inter-Nordic consultations remained a valuable tactical asset in the OEEC. However, in the mid-1950s the plans for a Nordic customs union became an important part of the Danish effort to bolster the country's bargaining position and to modernise and industrialise the economy.     

Just add milk: a productivity analysis of the revolutionary changes in nineteenth‐century Danish dairying

The late nineteenth‐century Danish agricultural revolution saw the modernization and growth of the dairy industry. Denmark rapidly caught up with the leading economies, and Danish dairying led the world in terms of productivity. Uniquely in a world perspective, high quality micro‐level data exist documenting this episode. These allow the use of the tool of modern agricultural economists, stochastic frontier analysis, to estimate production functions for milk and thus find the determinants of these productivity and efficiency advances. This article identifies the contribution of modernization through specific new technologies and practices.