Intergenerational Educational Mobility in Hong Kong: Are Immigrants More Mobile than Natives?

We characterize intergenerational educational mobility by the percentage of children who have more schooling than their parents, and the change in the relative probability of the children attending university across their parents’ schooling levels. In Hong Kong, immigrant children are very upward mobile; their percentage of upward mobility has caught up with that of the children of the Hong Kong‐born parents. Hong Kong‐born children of immigrant parents are also more mobile than the children of Hong Kong born parents. Even though parental educational background remains important for university attendance, immigrant children experience higher mobility than Hong Kong‐born children in terms of access to university education.     

Growth of Hong Kong Before and After its Reversion to China: The China Factor

The paper focuses on the Hong Kong economy and attempts to measure the contribution of Hong Kong's integration with mainland China to its GDP growth rate. Two linkages have received particular attention, namely, Hong Kong's foreign direct investment (FDI) in China and immigrants from China. While the former is assumed to stimulate capital investment in Hong Kong but at the same time to reduce human capital formation (owing to a shrinkage of its domestic manufacturing sector), the latter is assumed to further reduce Hong Kong's average human capital because immigrants tend to be less educated. By making some assumptions about the future trajectories of Hong Kong direct investment in China and Chinese immigrants into Hong Kong after its reversion to China, the paper offers some predictions about Hong Kong's future economic growth.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CONSUMPTION, INCOME AND WEALTH IN HONG KONG

Abstract. This paper estimates a consumption function for Hong Kong along the lines of the standard life‐cycle model. I find a stable relationship between consumption, labour income and wealth with plausible long‐run estimates of the implied marginal propensity to consume out of income and wealth. The marginal propensity to consume out of housing wealth is estimated to be lower than in other industrialized economies, which is consistent with a relatively uneven distribution of wealth in Hong Kong. Arithmetically, the decline in housing wealth in Hong Kong since 1997 can more than account for the weakness of consumption since then.     

服务使用与社会融合:香港新移民的一项探索性研究

基于285名香港新移民的问卷调查探索服务使用与社会融合之间的关联。香港新移民在社会融合过程面临一定的困难,具体表现在社会网络、社会参与和社会认同这三个层面。服务使用可以强化新移民的社会认同感,促进朋辈关系网络的建立和功能的发挥,提高参与者的就业能力和经济独立能力,从而帮助他们参与社会、贡献社会和融入社会。提出了相应的政策和服务建议。     

LONG‐TERM AND SHORT‐TERM EQUITY MARKET PRICE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN AUSTRALIA AND THE CHINESE STATES*

This study investigates the extent and manner of long‐term and short‐term price interaction between the equity market of Australia and those of China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan taking into account the effect of the Asian financial crisis. It uses cointegration and generalised forecast variance and impulse response analyses. The study finds no long‐term price relationship between the equity markets of Australia and the Chinese states. The short‐term evidence indicates that Australia was only significantly interdependent with Hong Kong during the pre‐Asian crisis period and with Hong Kong and Singapore during the post‐crisis period. Australia and these markets react to a shock from each other immediately during the first day and complete this reaction by day two. These findings are useful for investors and policy makers, especially in light of the economic importance of these nations and China's recent admittance to the World Trade Organisation.     

The Role of Productivity and Financial Frictions in the Business Cycles of a Small Open Economy: Hong Kong 1984–2011

This paper analyzes the business cycle properties of the Hong Kong economy during the 1984–2011 period, which includes the financial crisis experienced in 1997/98 and the economic crisis of 2008–2010. We show that the volatility respectively, of output, of the growth rate of output and of real interest rates in Hong Kong are higher than the corresponding average volatility among developed economies. Furthermore, interest rates are countercyclical. We build a stochastic neoclassical small open‐economy model estimated with a Bayesian likelihood approach that seeks to replicate the main business cycle characteristics of Hong Kong, and through which we try to quantify the role played by exogenous total factor productivity (TFP) shocks (transitory and permanent), real interest rate shocks and financial frictions. The main finding is that financial frictions, jointly with the assumption that the country spread is endogenous, seem important in explaining the countercyclicality of the real interest rates.     

Relative Returns to Skills and Assimilation of Immigrants in Hong Kong

A simple formal model is presented to analyse intercensal changes in the relative earnings of immigrants. A number of factors are analysed, including a change in the relative observed quality of immigrants, a change in the relative prices of observed skills, and assimilation. The model is applied to 1981 and 1991 Hong Kong census data and shows that although there is economic assimilation in the narrow sense at an estimated rate of approximately 1.55 percent p.a., earnings of immigrants diverge from earnings of natives because their relative returns to schooling declined.     

The Credibility of the PRC Commitment to a Market Economy in Hong Kong: Hypotheses and Evidence

How credible is China's commitment to a market economy in Hong Kong after 1997? Events signaling changes in commitment and the movement of time closer to 1997 should reduce the relative prices of immobile assets if commitment is not fully credible. Several factors may offset these effects: anticipatory adaption, growing dependence on China-related trade, and Chinese investment in Hong Kong. Analysis of data on incorporation and investment decisions, the relative sensitivity of the stock prices of firms with different asset mobility to political events, and the market for office space most strongly support hypotheses about credibility, adaption, and demand augmentation.     

The Impact of the China Factor on the pre-1997 Hong Kong Economy: a macroeconometric analysis

After the reunification of Hong Kong and China in 1997, Hong Kong is assured of a high degree of autonomy by the Basic Law. However, there remains some worry about the territory's economic viability and financial stability. Whether Chinese policies and China's remarkable growth momentum could continue to boost Hong Kong's prosperity has become an issue of concern. As the Chinese economic reform proceeds, the ‘China factor’ has been generating an increasing influence on the performance of the Hong Kong economy. Unfortunately, there have been very few rigorous quantitative analyses of this rapidly evolving development. To fill the gap, we have constructed a macroeconometric model of Hong Kong which takes into detailed account the linkages of the two economies including trade and capital flows. Estimation of the model incorporates error correction techniques to establish short-run dynamics and long-run equilibria. Our findings have identified crucial channels through which the ‘China factor’ has exerted impact on the Hong Kong economy. It is shown that the factor was not overwhelming up to the recent past, in terms of its stabilizing effects in the financial market and its stimulation on growth, although its influence may rise in the post-1997 era.     

中欧关系中的香港因素探析

在一个半世纪的英殖民统治时期．香港就逐渐成为中国与欧洲乃至西方交流的一座桥梁。自1997年主权回归后。香港在“一国两制”下的特殊地位以及欧盟对香港经济政治事务的密切关注使其在中欧关系中发挥着独特的影响。香港既可以成为中欧之间密切经贸联系的桥梁和纽带,也可能因其内部政治事务的发展而对中欧关系构成挑战。为此,我们在战略性地推动香港在中欧关系中的“门户”作用的同时,也不能忽视外来势力对中国主权与安全构成的潜在威胁。     

Hong Kong Output Dynamics: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract. Advanced statistical techniques are used to analyze Hong Kong output dynamics. Hong Kong, Japan and the US are found to share some common long‐term and short‐term cyclical variations. While the Hong Kong economy is susceptible to external shocks and Granger‐caused by the other two economies, local factors account for a large proportion of output growth variability and uncertainty. On the transmission mechanism, the selected trade and financial variables have incremental explanatory power but do not lessen the ability of lagged output variables to explain Hong Kong growth dynamics. Interestingly, the US does not appear to exert undue influences on Hong Kong.     

The cohort effect of political change on language speaking: Evidence from Hong Kong

It has been proven that language is a symbol of culture and politics. This study investigates the cohort effect of Hong Kong's handover on the language spoken in adulthood based on the 2006 and 2011 Hong Kong population censuses. We find that Mandarin is more likely to be used by Hong Kong natives who were exposed to the transfer of sovereignty over Hong Kong in 1997 during their school-age years, especially the generation that were exposed during their primary-school years. This cohort insisted on speaking Mandarin, even when the political environment changed from 2006 to 2011. Our evidence reveals that the political change that occurs during one's school-age years has a long-term impact on an individual's behaviour in adulthood. Further discussion indicates that exposure to political change such as regime transfer during school-age years impacts an individual's national identity.     

Profiteering from the Dot‐Com Bubble,Subprime Crisis and Asian Financial Crisis

The paper explores the characteristics associated with the formation of bubbles that occurred in the Hong Kong stock market in 1997 and 2007, as well as the 2000 dot‐com bubble of Nasdaq. It examines the profitability of technical analysis (TA) strategies generating buy and sell signals, with and without our proposed trading rules. The empirical results show that, by applying long and short strategies during the bubble formation and a short strategy after the bubble burst, it not only produces returns that are significantly greater than buy‐and‐hold strategies, but also produces greater wealth compared with TA strategies without trading rules. We conclude that these bubble detection signals help investors generate greater wealth from applying appropriate long and short moving average (MA) strategies.     

MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY AND COUNTERFACTUAL INFLATION‐TARGETING IN HONG KONG

The present paper evaluates macroeconomic adjustment in Hong Kong with an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model under a fixed exchange rate regime. We find that exports and world inflation shocks are the dominant sources of GDP volatility, with the risk premium taking on importance during the Asian crisis after 1997. A counterfactual simulation, assuming a flexible exchange rate regime with inflation targeting, shows that inflation would have decreased slightly, but interest‐rate volatility would have increased significantly. The welfare gains from switching out of the currency board system appear to be marginal.     

Dynamic linkages between exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from East Asian markets

This study examines dynamic linkages between exchange rates and stock prices for seven East Asian countries, including Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand, for the period January 1988 to October 1998. Our empirical results show a significant causal relation from exchange rates to stock prices for Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, and Thailand before the 1997 Asian financial crisis. We also find a causal relation from the equity market to the foreign exchange market for Hong Kong, Korea, and Singapore. Further, while no country shows a significant causality from stock prices to exchange rates during the Asian crisis, a causal relation from exchange rates to stock prices is found for all countries except Malaysia. Our findings are robust with respect to various testing methods used, including Granger causality tests, a variance decomposition analysis, and an impulse response analysis. Our findings also indicate that the linkages vary across economies with respect to exchange rate regimes, the trade size, the degree of capital control, and the size of equity market.     

Economic policy uncertainty spillovers in small open economies: The case of Hong Kong

This paper studies the extent to which economic policy uncertainty shocks in major economies affect real economic activity in small open economies. We use Hong Kong as a case study. Following Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016), we construct a newspaper‐based economic policy uncertainty index for Hong Kong for the period 1998 to 2016. We estimate international spillovers of uncertainty and find large spillovers of uncertainty from major economies to Hong Kong. Furthermore, using a structural vector autoregressive approach, we show that a rise in domestic economic policy uncertainty leads to tight financial conditions, and lower investment and vacancy posting, dampening domestic output growth.     

Impact of Low‐Skilled Immigration on Female Labour Supply

In this paper, segmenting the market by educational levels, we investigate which native‐born women are more affected by an increase of low‐skilled immigrants working in the household service sector. We present a model of individual choice with home production and, using a harmonized dataset (the Cross‐National Equivalent File), we estimate its main comparative static results. The results suggest that the share of immigrants working in services is positively associated with an increase of native‐born women's labour supply at the intensive margin, if skilled, and at the extensive margin, if unskilled. Moreover, the results show that these effects are larger in countries with less‐supportive family policies.     

In the Shadow of the United States: The International Transmission Effect of Asset Returns

We examine how fluctuations in financial and housing markets in the United States affect asset returns and GDP in Hong Kong. In contrast to studies using linear specifications, which find that the United States and Hong Kong are virtually delinked in terms of the asset markets, our regime‐switching models indicate that an unexpected change in US stock returns, followed by the TED spread, has the most significant effect on Hong Kong asset returns and GDP, typically in a regime of high return and low volatility. For in‐sample one‐step‐ahead forecasting, the US term spread is the best predictor.     

An Intertemporal Currency Board

The paper shows that the traditional wisdom of raising interest rates to defend a currency enriches rather than punishes the speculators. Furthermore, using high interest rates as a currency defense tool often produces the opposite effect in times of crisis. A new approach is proposed of using Hong Kong dollar "put" options as an explicit commitment by the government. The put option itself acts like an intertemporal currency board in keeping the linked exchange rate over time. This costly signaling produces a separating equilibrium that distinguishes the strength of the Hong Kong dollar from the other Asian currencies that were under pressure in 1997.     

The Case for Adopting the Convertible Reserves System in Hong Kong

The East Asian currency crisis spread to Hong Kong in October 1997, touching off worldwide repercussions. Weaknesses were revealed in the operational mechanism of Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system (the link). This paper casts the link as a peculiar currency board system in the proper historical and comparative contexts. After examining the conflict between the classical currency board (which relies on the two "automatic" stabilizers of specie-flow and cash arbitrage) and modern financial developments, it is pointed out that Hong Kong should move forward to the convertible reserves system of Argentina, Estonia and Lithuania (the AEL model), and adopt its cashless/electronic arbitrage arrangement to defend the link. Moreover, it is necessary to balance the need for short-term stability and the consideration of long-term flexibility. Any measure that increases the ultimate exit cost from the link must be assessed carefully.