基于SECI模型的知识创造与金融产品创新机制研究

金融产品创新是商业银行保持竞争优势、顺利实现转型、参与国际竞争的必要条件。本文在对知识创造过程、金融产品创新影响因素以及知识管理技术等相关研究进行系统梳理,选择Nonaka的SECI知识创造模型作为重要理论基础,探索知识创造过程和知识管理系统对商业银行金融产品创新能力的影响机制,分析了知识创造过程中的社会化、外化综合化和内化四个维度在商业银行中的具体活动和特征,通过影响银行的流程和业务行为,从而对金融产品创新能力提升产生积极的推动作用。同时,系统分析商业银行中知识管理系统对知识创造过程上述四个维度有直接的支撑作用,同时会利用知识创造过程会间接的影响金融创新能力提升。另外,知识管理系统也会对商业银行的金融创新能力有直接的支撑作用,从知识管理视角分析完善商业银行产品创新理论,为商业银行创新能力提升提供理论指导和实践参考。     

浅析中国式影子银行

作为新兴市场的代表,中国的影子银行业务得到快速发展,金融脱媒现象不断加剧,一方面适应了客户的多样化需求与银行的创新冲动,另一方面使得中国的金融系统比以往传统的金融系统更脆弱。通过对于影子银行的全面分析,追溯其产生的根源,寻找相关对策,降低其对我国金融系统的风险,同时能够更好规范影子银行的发展,充分放大其融资的有利效应,推进我国金融创新的监管机制,并建立风险预警体系,提高防范能力,使得金融系统健康有序地发展。     

Explaining European Union Citizens’ Trust in the European Central Bank in Normal and Crisis Times

We study the determinants of trust in the European Central Bank (ECB) as measured by the European Commission's Eurobarometer survey, in particular during the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis. We find that the fall in trust in the ECB in crisis times can be rather well explained based on the pre‐crisis determinants. We also show that the fall in trust reflected the macroeconomic deterioration, a more generalized fall in the trust in European institutions in the wake of the crisis, and the severity of the banking sector's problems, to which the ECB was associated in the public opinion.     

基于影子银行视角的我国金融体制改革探索

学术界普遍认为影子银行脱缰似的发展助推并加剧了2008年的全球金融危机。后金融危机时代,我国的监管机构越发重视影子银行的风险防范问题。首先对我国的影子银行进行界定,继而从融资方的需求、投资方的供给以及投融资中介的配合三方面分析了我国影子银行兴起之表面原因,进而在探讨其隐藏的流动性风险、信息不对称风险以及系统性违约风险的基础上,指出影子银行兴起之深层次原因在于我国金融抑制环境下的利率管制以及当下"一行三会"的分业监管模式对金融创新存在监管真空等金融体制方面的弊端,最后提出为防范影子银行的风险,当前我国的金融体制改革的举措主要是完善金融监管体制、推进利率市场化改革,健全信息披露制度,加快社会信用体系的建设。     

Liberalization,Regulatory Delays and Vulnerability to Systemic Banking Crisis

This work aims at contributing to the improvement of the early warning systems of banking crises using a new approach accounting for model uncertainty. We show that a multinomial logit model based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a good strategy to predict banking crisis. To do this, we argue that differences in vulnerability to banking crisis can be largely explained by an asymmetry between financial market evolution and regulation update on a sample of 49 developed and developing countries between 1980 and 2010. When markets are liberalized, competition pushes bankers to take more risks and take advantage of regulatory delays thus increasing crises probabilities. Our empirical evidence supports that crisis probability is higher in country liberalizing their banking system when regulation is not updated. We developed an early warning system for systemic banking crises based on the multinomial logit model. Its main difference to existing prediction models and its contribution to the literature is that it is intended to identify and resolve what is called by Bussiere and Fratzscher [(2006). Towards a new early warning system of financial crises. Journal of International Money and Finance, 25(6), 953–973] as post-crisis bias in binomial models and to develop a new methodology of leading indicators selection based on BMA. Overall, our model predicts all banking crises during our sample period.     

数据信托参与数据治理:理论逻辑与实现机制

基于数据流通场景的数据治理和数据权利保护,以个人对个人信息/数据的绝对控制权为理论基础;这种个人绝对赋权模式忽视信息/数据的社会属性和公共属性,不能充分发挥信息/数据的价值。传统信托制度参与数据治理与信托当事人理论和信托财产理论等方面存在抵牾。当前实在法体系下,综合运用法律解释等法律方法能够为数据信托参与数据治理提供制度可能。由传统信托理论出发,对未来数据信托制度的建构必须基于数据收集阶段和数据流通阶段的具体区分,数据流通阶段是数据信托发生的主要场景;可以采取修改法律以及出台司法解释等方式更新传统信托理论,使之更加契合数据时代对数据权利保护的根本目的。     

WTO的挑战与银行业的改革

随着我国经济一体化进程的不断加快，中国加入WTO后，外资银行将凭借其雄厚的资本实力、健全的经营体制、丰富的融资品种和良好的人才结构，给我国整体竞争力较为低下的银行业带来巨大的冲击和挑战，但同时也会给我们带来一定的发展机遇。因此，我国银行业要以市场化为基本取向，进一步深化金融体制和融资模式改革，充实资本金、培育金融市场，创新金融服务，在渐进开放的过程中，充分发挥本土优势，努力提高我国银行业的整体竞争力。     

如何看待银行业利润大幅增长问题

今年以来,银行业利润大幅增长问题引起了社会各界高度关注。本文的分析表明,银行业利润的大幅增长主要归因于实体经济平稳较快增长、现行金融保护制度、银行中间业务快速发展、银行业改革红利和市场环境变迁等,是各种内外部、主客观因素共同作用的结果。银行业良好的经营绩效对于银行、金融体系乃至国民经济的健康平稳发展具有重要意义。受制于多方面因素,当前银行业的高盈利不具备可持续性,可采取有关改革措施保持银行业利润合理、平稳增长。     

Securitization,Social Distance,and Financial Crises

Because the process of securitizing home mortgages played a critical role in precipitating the recent financial crisis, it is widely agreed that this market must be reformed to prevent future collapses. Most proposals focus on improving the dissemination of information among securitization participants, and on strengthening incentives to discourage excessive risk-taking. This paper argues that because securitization involves the commodification of the lending relationship, it reinforces the type of self-interested behavior that often undermines regulatory efforts. What are needed are structural reforms that encourage moral behavior by narrowing the social distance between lenders and borrowers. This can be accomplished by a return to traditional banking lending, supplemented by the use of covered bonds to loosen credit constraints and to help financial intermediaries manage market risk.     

Securitization,Social Distance,and Financial Crises

Because the process of securitizing home mortgages played a critical role in precipitating the recent financial crisis, it is widely agreed that this market must be reformed to prevent future collapses. Most proposals focus on improving the dissemination of information among securitization participants, and on strengthening incentives to discourage excessive risk-taking. This paper argues that because securitization involves the commodification of the lending relationship, it reinforces the type of self-interested behavior that often undermines regulatory efforts. What are needed are structural reforms that encourage moral behavior by narrowing the social distance between lenders and borrowers. This can be accomplished by a return to traditional banking lending, supplemented by the use of covered bonds to loosen credit constraints and to help financial intermediaries manage market risk.     

信任问题的财务学思考

信任问题倍受社会学关注并已引起经济学和管理学的重视，但在财务学领域，信任问题还是一个全新的研究课题。本认为，信任是信息不对称的委托代理关系，信任是财务行为的内生性因素。是提高财务效率的重要机制。降低信任所带来的财务风险，最重要的是建立信任的保障机制。事前的信任保障机制就是审慎的信任给予机制，包括信息搜寻机制、信任审查机制、信任限制机制、信任和信任担保机制；事后的信任保险机制主要依赖于强制性的法律程序，包括自发性和解机制、相机控制机制、破产清算机制、财产追索机制和撕破面子机制等。     

管制、竞争与民营银行的发展

金融深化的基础是管制与竞争的均衡。计划体制下,国家对金融业一直采取国有控股或国家垄断,因而产生民营银行压抑现象。市场化改革显化了金融制度与经济制度的摩擦,因而民营银行发展在金融深化中具有现实性,也是金融基础设施建设的重要组成。从竞争的角度看,放松民营银行进入壁垒,有助于金融业适度竞争,同时也是国有银行改革的重要组成部分。当然,金融本身的脆弱性说明银行民营化过程也是管制重建的过程。     

A Crisis of the Overcrowded Future: Shadow Banking and the Political Economy of Financial Innovation

This article focuses on the role the shadow banking system played in the financial crisis of 2007–9. Engaging with emergent theories of shadow banking, I inquire into its structural role in contemporary capitalism. My main premise here is that the crisis of 2007–9 is distinct in financial history because it did not centre on any organised market. Rather, it was crisis of the overcrowded financial channels bridging the present and the future, which have become congested because of the massive concentration of financial values generated, yet not sustained, through the shadow banking network. My analysis suggests that shadow banking has determined the nature of financial crisis of 2007–9 and continues to play a necessary role in financial capitalism based on futurity. Drawing on scholarship in financial Keynesianism, contemporary legal studies and early evolutionary political economy, I argue that shadow banking is best seen as the organic institutional infrastructure of financialised capitalism based on debt and geared towards futurity, a concept originally developed by John Commons.     

BANK COMPETITION,FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT,AND INCOME INEQUALITY

Income inequality rises with financial development initially and then drops. We reach this conclusion by numerically solving a heterogeneous agent model parameterized to the Chinese economy. The model features a banking sector with Cournot competition, and the process of financial development in the model economy begins with the deregulation of the banking sector. Based on regressions with the fixed effects and the system generalized method of moments, the empirical analysis also suggests an inverted‐U relationship between income inequality and financial development using provincial data from China. (JEL E25, G21, G28)     

Dual Financial Systems and Inequalities in Economic Development

This paper analyzes the emergence and the evolution of a modern banking system, in a developing economy where banks coexist with informal credit institutions. Banks have a superior ability in mobilizing savings while informal lenders enjoy a superior information on borrowers. More specifically, banks cannot observe perfectly the behavior of borrowers; therefore the latter need to provide collateral assets in order to obtain bank loans. Physical collateral is not needed to borrow in the informal credit market: informal lenders can rely on social networks to obtain information on borrowers' behavior and invoke social sanctions to enforce repayment. The sustained growth path is associated with the successful development of the banking system that gathers savings on a large scale. However, informal lenders and other traditional credit institutions are necessary in the first stage of development when collateral is scarce. In this economy, the development of modern financial intermediaries is closely associated with the accumulation of collateral assets by entrepreneurs. This implies that the initial level of development as well as the initial distribution of wealth will determine the joint evolution of the real side of the economy and the financial system. Under certain conditions, two long-run steady-state equilibria exist: in the first one the economy stops growing and the banking system never successfully develops; in the second one the economy reaches a sustained growth rate and the informal sector asymptotically vanishes. The impact of the following policies is discussed: financial repression, micro-credit institutions and redistribution of assets.     

Withstanding financial crises: would trade partners help or hurt?

This article provides new empirical evidence on the losses of real activity caused by various financial shocks. Spillover effects due to foreign trade linkages deserve special attention. To this end, we estimate a modify auto-regressive process and a Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations estimator is used to account for the dependency of one’s country growth on its trade-weighted partners growth. We run estimations on a set of currency collapses, banking crises and sovereign defaults in 49 advanced and developing countries from 1978 to 2011. The trade-weighted foreign demand effect mitigated the economic downturn following a banking or a sovereign debt crisis in all countries, while only the advanced ones benefited from it after a currency collapse. Trade-based spillover effects make banking crises more costly in the developing countries, in those that liberalize their financial account. It contrasts with what is observed during currency or sovereign debt crises.     

融资制度绩效的信息经济学分析

融资机制的运行效率是一个国家保持经济持续增长的一个制度性基础。由于信息不对称现象的普遍存在,它所引起的逆向选择和道德风险,降低了融资绩效。因此,判断直接融资和间接融资的孰优孰劣及其适用性,关键在于这种融资制度能否有效减少信息的不对称程度,进而促进金融体系的有效性。一般而言,直接融资要求的信息充分程度较高,发展中国家具有发展间接融资的相对优势,应重视培育有效的银行体系,充分发挥商业银行的金融中介作用。     

Is the use of bank debt as a governance mechanism conditioned by the financial system? The cases of Chile and Spain

We test whether the use of bank debt as a governance mechanism is conditioned by the financial system in which firms operate. Our results indicate that the legal and institutional environment determines the use of bank debt to finance growth opportunities. Firms use bank debt to finance their growth opportunities when the country's banking system contributes to solving agency and asymmetric information problems and avoiding information monopoly costs. The evolutionary process of the financial systems in each country means that market imperfections such as information asymmetry or agency costs can have a diverse influence on firms’ bank debt decisions.     

基于MCMC方法的我国银行业技术效率评价

以动态随机前沿模型为基础,采用基于吉布斯抽样的马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛方法,运用1998—2007年我国银行类金融机构的基本数据对模型的各参数进行贝叶斯估计,得到我国银行类金融机构的技术效率评价结果。结果表明:我国银行类金融机构的技术效率均值为96.68%,运行效率较高,这说明我国推行的银行业改革卓有成效。     

制度变迁下国有商业银行农村服务网络演化——以农业银行兰考县支行为例

经济转轨背景下农村的银行服务网络呈现出不同于城市的演化特征。从制度变迁角度建构分析框架,基于历史、调查与访谈数据,以农业银行兰考县支行为例,探讨我国商业银行农村服务网络演化动力机制。研究表明:国有商业银行农村服务网络经历了恢复成立后的快速扩张和密集的人工网点服务,市场化改革中农村业务收缩和大规模网点撤并,到新时期人工、自助、电子、代理等多元服务渠道扩张;农村银行服务网络演化是商业银行和制度环境相互作用的空间过程,普惠金融战略下我国特别强调金融服务的均等化和基础金融网点的全覆盖,商业银行不断借助新的伙伴关系开拓农村市场,其中合作代理日益发挥重要作用。不同地区、不同商业银行农村服务网络模式的差异,农村银行服务网络转型对农村社会经济发展、金融生态环境改善、农民金融素养提升的影响等还需进一步研究。