金融创新对存款准备金制度的影响与对策

存款准备是现代中央银行基本制度之一,它对调节社会信用总量发挥着重要作用,但全球范围内快速发展的金融创新对其产生了重大影响,制约了这一货币政策工具有效性的发挥。一、金融创新削弱了存款准备机制作用(一)从货币供给方面看,金融机构通过创新缩小了存款准备金制度的作用范围,减弱了存款准备金控制货币供应总量的作用。1.商业银行通过金融工具创新减少应缴准备金。货币市场的回购协议、货币市场互助基金等非存款工具不受存款准备金制约,商业银行利用这一有利条件,一方面通过非存款工具增加负债规模,另一方面规避存款准备金的制约,从而限制存款准备作用的发挥。在网络银行中,商业银行通过开发一些电子货币,不断取代有准备金要求的负债业务。资料表明,在纯网上银行中,涉及存款准备金问题的业务比重已降至50%左右,这些新的金融工具在很大程度上规避了准备制度的政策效用。2.商业银行通过创新,利用混业经营的趋势,设立子公司或附属机构,这些机构成为非存款类金融公司,其经营运作不受存款准备制度的约束。近年来,这类公司的资产占金融机构总资产的比重迅速上升,而且随着资产证券化的快速发展,将有更多的原本可以是存款的资金流向了这类金融公司,从而减少了银行负债,降低了...     

建立适当交叉重叠的大金融监管体制

我国目前实行分业经营、分业监管，央行与银监会等三家监管部门分别在法定范围执行监管功能。这种体制虽可避免职责重复，但却容易出现监管真空和道德风险，导致信息共享与协作能力差，影响央行宏观经济决策的效率。我们不妨借鉴一下美联储的货币监管经验。目前，美国金融管理机构主要有联邦储备体系、货币监理署、联邦存款保险公司、州银行管理部门和存款机构总署。联储与其它金管机构间存在明显的多头管理、交叉监管和重叠监管，使监管不留空白，     

改进信贷资金控制方法 加强中央银行的宏观控制

我国银行通过资金运用所创造的货币,按其周转速度可以分为四个层次: M₁=流通中现金+能转帐结算的存款或限额（以下简称支票存款）; M₂=M₁+活期储蓄+财政基建拨存款+财政金库未拨款+汇兑在途资金; M₃=M₂+定期储蓄存款+单位定期存款; M₄=M₃+银行自有资金和结益。 M₁是流通中的货币,是直接的购买力,困而M₁要与流通中的货币必要量相等。除M₁之外的其他信用货币的存在,说明有一部分货币暂时退出了流通,于是银行可以再创造些货币,直至M₁与流通中的货币必要量相等。     

发挥信贷调节作用 稳定农村货币流通

(一)在我国,信用集中于银行,货币投放与回笼都是通过银行信贷程序实现的,信贷活动调节着货币流通。从总量上看,信贷既是市场货币流通的“投放口”,又是货币流通的“回流阀”。银行增加贷款或减少存款,会直接或间接地增加货币流通量;反过来,控制贷款投放或大力组织存款,就会相应地减少市场货币流通量。从内部活动的范围、方向看,信贷活动左右着货币流通,例如,对农村贷款扩大,流向农村的货币也就随之增多;而投向农业生产     

无所不在的监管

三管齐下 美国银行监管部门主要有联邦储备银行(FED)、货币管理局(OCC)和存款保险公司(FDIC).如果银行是上市公司,还要接受证交会(SEC)的管理.联储主要用货币政策来引导银行业和整个经济金融活动,货币管理局主要对银行准入退出进行管理,存款保险公司主要就会员银行存款进行保险.前两者无须谈及,因为我国已把有关监管职能从中国人民银行分离出来成立了银监会.问题在于我国有无必要成立存款保险公司呢?回答是肯定的.     

新型数字化货币对传统货币替代及货币创造影响研究

本文提出新型数字化货币对货币创造影响的“三阶段论”：2011-2017年支付场景深化和货币市场基金兴起推动现金进入银行体系增加货币创造；2018-2019年备付金新规导致银行体系存款漏出减少货币创造；2020年至今数字人民币试点短期或造成银行存款漏出减少货币创造，但长期为中性影响。2011-2021年数字化支付的发展使货币总量净增8.9万亿元，总体影响有限。数字化支付场景深化是互联网金融发展与基础设施建设综合的结果。从货币职能看，数字化货币减少了用于交易支付和价值窖藏的现金持有率，提供了更佳货币持有形式，推动更多货币沉淀为价值窖藏，为“中国货币迷失之谜”提供了可能的解释。当下，数字人民币已被纳入“十四五”规划战略，本文对实现数字人民币高质量发展具有启示意义。     

多层次金融市场与金融脱媒

金融脱媒和多层次金融市场是宏观管理部门和商业银行都很关注的问题。“脱媒”是上世纪60年代在美国出现的一个新词。狭义地讲，当时是指在定期存款利率上限管制条件下，当货币市场利率水平高于存款机构可支付的存款利率水平时，存款机构的存款资金就会大量流向货币市场工具的现象。这个现象直接源于美国Q条例对存款利率的管制，Q条例的实行一方面使商业银行获得了低成本资金，但另一方面使人们感到将存款存到商业银行是不合算的。因此就有一些机构提供类似于存款的工具，以逃避Q条例的限制。广义地讲，金融脱媒不仅是指存款资金直接流向高息资产，而且是指资金需求方抛开金融中介，直接在货币市场发行短期债务工具。在这种情况下，企业需要资金，可能不再向商业银行借款，而是直接在市场发债、发股票或者短期商业票据。对银行来说，就面临存款的转移和贷款需求的减少。     

美联储救助次贷危机的创新及对我国央行应对危机的启示

目前，全球金融体系变化的突出特征是金融体系正在由银行主导转向市场主导。这种金融结构的演进导致了金融危机的性质和区域都发生了变化。面对这种变化，关联储在次贷危机的形成过程中没有及时识别系统中的风险，未能阻止危机的爆发。不过在危机爆发后，关联储在传统救助政策的基础上发展了新的政策手段，缓解了金融市场压力。本文通过对关联储救助过程的解读，全面分析其危机管理政策，并结合我国的实际情况，提出对策建议。     

欧洲联盟财政体制及其改革方向探析

欧洲联盟(EU)有统一的货币当局，管理货币与汇率政策。受制于辅助性原则，EU没有统一的财政机构，财政政策仍主要由各成员国执行。经济全球化的发展、“欧洲情结”的滋长以及欧盟范围公共产品的空间界限的不断外推等，将对更紧密的经济一体化产生压力。从短期看，进行卓有成效的政策协调可以解决这些问题，若从长期看，创建一个中央财政机构更好地处理分配、再分配及宏观经济稳定等问题将日益迫切。     

对原始存款与派生存款概念的再思考

《货币银行学》或《金融学概论》是财经类专业的核心课程,存款货币创造过程是该课程的重点与难点问题,现有教材对这一问题中涉及到的基本概念存在分歧,给学生带来困惑。以近4年出版的代表性教材为依据,结合货币制度从金属货币本位向纸币本位的演变,提出原始存款的三种属性,根据三种属性界定原始存款的内涵,修正原始存款的定义,进而完善派生存款和存款乘数的定义。基本学术主张是：在现代中央银行垄断货币发行的纸币流通条件下,原始存款是存款货币银行体系得到的最初一笔准备金。派生存款是存款货币银行通过业务活动创造的超过原始存款的存款,表现为货币供应的流量。存款乘数是派生存款与原始存款的比率。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…