Strength of Preference in the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution

A new preference structure that includes a simple relative measure of strength of preference is developed and integrated into some of the stability definitions for the graph model for conflict resolution. In this triplet preference structure, a decision-maker may greatly prefer or prefer one state or scenario to another, or may be indifferent between them. Four stability definitions (solution concepts), Nash stability (R), general metarationality (GMR), symmetric metarationality (SMR), and sequential stability (SEQ), are extended to include strong and weak stabilities for the case of conflicts with two decision makers. Theorems that clarify the interrelationships of the strong and weak versions of these solution concepts are presented. The application of this new preference structure and the associated solution concepts is demonstrated in an environmental conflict model, called the Sustainable Development Conflict. This case shows that valuable strategic insights are gained when strength of preference is integrated into the stability analysis.     

Integrating Uncertain Preferences into Status Quo Analysis with Applications to an Environmental Conflict

An algorithm is put forward to conduct status quo analysis when preference uncertainty exists for at least one decision maker (DM) in a strategic conflict. This research integrates into a unified framework two recent expansions of the graph model for conflict resolution, preference uncertainty and status quo analysis. Both of these developments enhance the applicability of the graph model, preference uncertainty by accommodating uncertainty in DMs' preferences and status quo analysis by addressing the dynamics of conflict. The combination of preference uncertainty and status quo analysis improves the flexibility of the graph model in both modelling and analysis. A new model of an environmental conflict is analyzed to demonstrate how the new algorithm can be applied.     

Integrating an Option-Oriented Attitude Analysis into Investigating the Degree of Stabilities in Conflict Resolution

Despite the influences on one’s thoughts and actions, the attitude has usually been overlooked in conflict analysis. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new systematic methodology for the graph model for conflict resolution that can be employed to study real-world conflict situations and gain enhanced insights. More specifically, the proposed method starts with the development of an expanded option-oriented preference structure that is derived from decision makers’ attitudes toward others. Then based on this attitude-driven preference structure, the general concepts of stabilities are extended to contain the definitions of different degrees of stabilities under attitude. In addition, the proposed method is embedded in a decision support system, called NUAAGMCR, to facilitate the analytical process. Through a detailed case study of the two-stage environmental conflict of post-Fukushima controversy in Japan, the predicted resolutions are demonstrated to be more accurate and stable than those derived by the general stability analysis.     

Matrix Representation of Solution Concepts in the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution with Probabilistic Preferences and Multiple Decision Makers

Group Decision and Negotiation - In this paper, matrix methods are developed to determine stable states in the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) with probabilistic preferences with n...     

Negotiation support using the Decision Support System GMCR

The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution constitutes a unique and flexible approach to the representation, analysis, and understanding of strategic conflict. This methodology, as implemented in the Decision Support System GMCR, constitutes a useful tool for negotiation support. Because GMCR includes efficient algorithms for calculating the stability of states, it encourages extensive comparisons of the consequences of different models of negotiators' decision making. GMCR also facilitates modifications to the way in which the conflict is represented, encouraging sensitivity and what-if analyses. The applicability of GMCR to negotiations is discussed in general, and in the context of a specific case study in environmental conflict resolution.     

Modeling the Role of a Coordinator as a Medium of Communication in 2-Player Conflicts

This paper discusses the role of a coordinator in the 2-player conflict where the information on players' preference is incomplete. It is assumed that the coordinator has a priori prospect of feasible alternatives. First, the method of the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) is extended to apply to this conflict with incomplete information, and the coordination system for the conflict with incomplete information is proposed. The process operated by the coordinator uses Extended Robustness Analysis that specifies the critical conditions for the stability and Pareto efficiency of an alternative. Finally, the methodology is applied to the conflict between hydropower generation and environmental interests.     

Markov chains under nonlinear expectation

In this paper, we consider continuous‐time Markov chains with a finite state space under nonlinear expectations. We define so‐called Q‐operators as an extension of Q‐matrices or rate matrices to a nonlinear setup, where the nonlinearity is due to model uncertainty. The main result gives a full characterization of convex Q‐operators in terms of a positive maximum principle, a dual representation by means of Q‐matrices, time‐homogeneous Markov chains under convex expectations, and a class of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. This extends a classical characterization of generators of Markov chains to the case of model uncertainty in the generator. We further derive an explicit primal and dual representation of convex semigroups arising from Markov chains under convex expectations via the Fenchel–Legendre transformation of the generator. We illustrate the results with several numerical examples, where we compute price bounds for European contingent claims under model uncertainty in terms of the rate matrix.     

Modeling Group Preferences Using a Decompositional Preference Approach

This article examines an extension of the decompositional, conjoint, or stated-preference approach to model group decisions. In the conventional approach, only one member is chosen to be the group's representative and provide answers for the group as a whole. In this study, all group members are brought together and asked to jointly complete a conjoint preference experiment. The hypothesis is tested that this joint group approach predicts group behavior better than the conventional approach with representatives. The paper presents the estimated part-worth utilities of the group model and compares preference structures of individual group members and groups. Finally, group preference models are tested to determine whether they outperform representative-based preference models in terms of the ability to correctly predict the group preferences for new alternatives. These analyses are performed in the context of residential preferences of co-ops, which are groups of young people, usually not partners, who live together in owner-occupied houses.     

Logarithm Compatibility of Interval Multiplicative Preference Relations with an Application to Determining the Optimal Weights of Experts in the Group Decision Making

We propose the new compatibility of interval multiplicative preference relations (IMPRs) in the group decision making (GDM) and apply it to determine the weights of experts. Firstly, we introduce the operation of interval numbers and define the new conception of logarithm compatibility degree of two interval multiplicative preference relations. Then, we prove the properties of logarithm compatibility of IMPR. It is pointed that if IMPR provided by every expert and its characteristic matrix are of acceptable compatibility, then the synthetic preference relation and the synthetic characteristic matrix are also of acceptable compatibility. Furthermore, we construct a mathematical programming model to determine the optimal weights of experts by minimizing the square logarithm compatibility in the GDM with IMPR and discuss the solution to the model. Finally, a numerical example is illustrated to show that the model is feasible.     

Consistency in MCGDM Problems with Intuitionistic Fuzzy Preference Relations Based on an Exponential Score Function

This paper investigates an approach for multiple criteria decision making problems with intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations (IFPRs). An exponential score function for intuitionistic fuzzy numbers is developed. Its novelty is that it can convert an IFPR into a multiplicative preference relation. Then, the exponential score preference relation is introduced and its associated optimal transfer matrix is proposed. The optimal transfer matrix can guarantee the consistency via the additive transitivity property. Furthermore, an optimal model for aggregating group IFPRs to reach consistency is proposed. Finally, a group decision making approach and a multi-criteria decision making approach with IFPRs are presented.     

Advances in Drama Theory for Managing Global Hazards and Disasters. Part I: Theoretical Foundation

Global risk and disaster management challenges are complex and ill-structured group decision processes characterized by time-sensitive, multi-faceted, and self-organizing negotiations, high decision stakes, extreme uncertainty, and dynamic, value-laden tradeoffs. Drama theory asserts that conflict resolution requires players to engage in a rational-emotional process of re-defining both the game and their “positions” in it until agreement on a satisfactory resolution is reached. While game theory has been widely applied to problems dealing with hazards, risk, and disasters, it assumes fixed players, options, and preferences, and hence does not allow for the re-definition of the conflict under consideration. Results show that drama theory constitutes a flexible and powerful tool for modeling group decision and negotiation processes involving natural, man-made, and health-related hazards, risk, and catastrophes in the post-911 security environment by modeling emotional responses that, throughout the course of a game, can lead to unanticipated reactions and change basic assumptions. This is achieved through the use of option boards to construct and analyze emergency, disaster, or crisis models that are structurally similar to game models. Finally, drama theory is compared and contrasted to conflict analysis, which developed from common roots in metagame analysis. The strengths and weaknesses of drama theory are critically evaluated in the context of global climate change and the mounting risk of a worldwide influenza pandemic.     

Cultural values,emotional intelligence,and conflict handling styles: A global study

While previous research has identified cultural values and emotional intelligence as central determinants of conflict handling styles, little is known about the mechanism through which cultural values impact individuals’ preferences for specific conflict handling styles. Based on a multinational dataset including 1527 individuals from ten different cultural clusters, the current study aims to integrate these two literature streams by examining the influence of cultural values on conflict handling styles through emotional intelligence. The results of structural equation modeling and mediation analysis show that in particular uncertainty avoidance and long-term orientation influence preferences for the conflict handling styles of compromising, obliging, and integrating through emotional intelligence. Furthermore, we find that collectivism has a direct negative effect on the preference for a dominating style and that power distance has a direct positive effect on the preference for an avoiding and a dominating style. Our study contributes to a more comprehensive and more integrative understanding of earlier research on the role of culture and emotional intelligence in conflict handling.     

物流外包中的冲突分析及解决机制

物流外包中的冲突不涉及到根本利益的对抗,这种冲突在物流运营过程中普遍存在。分析了物流外包冲突的机理,建立了一个以物流集成商为中心的物流外包冲突分析模型,并进行了稳定性分析,找出了解决方案,最后提出了冲突分析的解决机制：协商机制和激励机制。     

Association Ambiguity in Brand Extension

A research method is developed to effectively identify associations that significantly influence the perceived fit of brand extensions. Contrary to extant brand extension studies that mainly focus on the fit of associations, the current study considers the ambiguity of associations. The proposed measure of association ambiguity, defined as the level of uncertainty based on the perceived conflict of a particular association in a brand extension indicated by the similarity and intensity level of perceived association distance to the parent brand and extension category, was tested and validated using several brand extension cases. Identifying an association's level of ambiguity and the magnitude of its impact on the perceived fit will allow advertisers to adjust their advertising messages and increase consumer receptiveness toward brand extensions. Implications for advertising practitioners and future research are discussed.     

奈特不确定下资产定价消费模型的建立

在不确定条件下进行资产定价是金融学中的一个重要问题。受金融市场的时变性和人的参与,通常情况下很难得到如收益、利率、波动率等某些变量的精确估计值,现实金融市场中不仅存在概率意义上的不确定性,还存在模糊性,在实际投资中如何对不确定性给出正确的建模就变得非常重要。把不确定性理论引入到传统的资产定价模型中,通过引入不确定性惩罚因子和熵函数建立奈特不确定条件下的最优消费和投资组合模型,能够同时反映随机不确定性和模糊性,可满足投资者的需求。该模型是对经典模型的一种自然推广,它可以适用于不同类型的市场,不同类型的个体,有较好的适用性。     

Folding Arguments: A Method for Representing Conflicting Views of a Conflict

This article presents a method for representing social conflict under disagreements over its representation, with the view that the resolution of such disagreements often affects the resolution of the conflict itself. The Argumentative Analysis of Options (AAO) method proposed here extends Howard's Analysis of Options method for conflict analysis. The AAO method highlights the role of policy discourse in resolving the disagreed representation, and models arguments made in these social processes. In this method, people's arguments are folded into a "strategic map" of a conflict, using a new coding system based on modal logic. The method is designed to be incorporated into group support systems (GSS) as a non-exclusive, non-specialist communication medium for both principal players and grassroots people. An experimental study is reported in which use of a prototype of GSS with the AAO method resulted in an assembly of rational and structured arguments in an attempt to resolve a hypothetical conflict. An evaluation by users of the prototype GSS suggested that it was less simple and more difficult to use, but richer than a more traditional electronic mail system. Design implications and potential pitfalls of this approach to GSS are discussed based on the results of the experimental study.     

Decision making and decision aiding: Defining the process,it representations,and support

We present a formalized account of decision making as a multistep process that involves several classes of participating entities. The purpose of this article is to lay the foundations for a conceptual framework in which decision support systems can be placed. A series of increasingly formal representations of the decision problem are developed, from a mental model conceived by the decision maker to a knowledge base that may be used in a decision support system. The reformulations of the decision problem lead us to contemplate different forms of support: for mental models, for formal models (this includes supporting measurement and representation), for solution, and for communication.     

Understanding Hybrid Channel Conflict: A Conceptual Model and Propositions for Research

ABSTRACT

The use of several distinct channel types by suppliers to serve a given product-market is rapidly becoming the dominant design. Such increasingly complex distribution systems present unique opportunities and problems for marketers, including how to most effectively manage the intrafirm, interchannel conflict resulting from channel coalitions competing with one another for resources, both internal (expenditures, personnel) and external (customers). Moreover, it is unclear whether conflict in a hybrid distribution system is “good” or “bad” for the supplier firm. We develop a theoretically-grounded conceptual model of the antecedents and consequences of hybrid channel conflict and offer several empirically testable research propositions, including a contingency framework for determining the functionality of hybrid channel conflict. Perhaps most important in terms of contribution to the marketing literature are the conceptualization of hybrid channel conflict itself and the associated definitions which we present in this paper.     

Network valuation in financial systems

We introduce a general model for the balance‐sheet consistent valuation of interbank claims within an interconnected financial system. Our model represents an extension of clearing models of interdependent liabilities to account for the presence of uncertainty on banks' external assets. At the same time, it also provides a natural extension of classic structural credit risk models to the case of an interconnected system. We characterize the existence and uniqueness of a valuation that maximizes individual and total equity values for all banks. We apply our model to the assessment of systemic risk and in particular for the case of stress testing. Further, we provide a fixed‐point algorithm to carry out the network valuation and the conditions for its convergence.