Governing the transition to low-carbon futures: A critical survey of energy scenarios for 2050

There is a growing scientific consensus that limiting the increase in global average temperature to around 2 °C above pre-industrial levels is necessary to avoid unacceptable impact on the climate system. This requires that the developed countries’ emissions are radically reduced during the next 40 years. Energy scenario studies provide insights on the societal transitions that might be implied by such low-carbon futures, and in this paper we discuss how a greater attention to different governance and institutional issues can complement future scenario exercises. The analysis is based on a critical review of 20 quantitative and qualitative scenario studies, all of relevance for meeting long-term climate policy objectives. The paper: (a) analyzes some key differences in energy technology mixes and primary energy use patterns across these studies; (b) briefly explores the extent and the nature of the societal challenges and policy responses implied; and (c) discusses a number of important implications for the design and scope of future scenario studies. Our review shows that in previous scenario studies the main attention is typically paid to analyzing the impact of well-defined and uniform policy instruments, while fewer studies factor in the role of institutional change in achieving different energy futures. We therefore point towards a number of strategies of integrating issues of transition governance into future scenario analyses, and argue for a closer synthesis of qualitative and quantitative scenario building.     

Delivering the Transport Renaissance Locally

This article focuses on how real transport change might be achieved through effective delivery of good local transport plans. It concentrates on two questions: (1) What has changed in the institutional, policy and political environment and what can we learn from those changes as we face the future challenges? (2) How well can we expect people at large to understand the nature of the problems, and how can we best engage to change their travel behaviour?     

Combining backcasting and adaptive management for climate adaptation in coastal regions: A methodology and a South African case study

Developing adaptation strategies for deltaic and coastal regions is a major challenge, due to future uncertainties of climate change and complexity of the social–ecological systems to be managed. This paper investigates how desirable futures or normative scenarios approaches, in particular backcasting, can be used to develop more robust climate strategies in coastal regions. The paper develops a methodology in which participatory backcasting and adaptive management are combined, and its applicability is demonstrated for the Breede–Overberg coastal region in South Africa where a catchment management strategy has been developed. It is concluded that the methodology offers an adequate framework for developing and implementing long-term climate adaptation strategies and policies, including a transition management scheme for intermediate assessments.     

Change by whom? Four ways of adding actors and governance in backcasting studies

There is a lack of actors and governance in backcasting studies. Given that such studies typically are used to explore and promote change, the absence of change agents and their institutions is a shortcoming. This paper presents four approaches to include actors and governance as objects of study in backcasting studies; the stakeholder analysis approach, the social network approach, the governance model approach, and the policy and change approach. In the paper a scenario study of the greening of private transport in Bromma, Stockholm is used as example.     

Beyond Self‐Evident: Recognising the Problematic Political Context of Accrual Accounting Adoption in South Korea

This paper responds to a recent call by researchers that we need to move beyond both advocacy of and technical arguments about the value of accrual accounting to more fully recognise the institutional forces, key change agents and the local political fields. We draw on elements of institutional theory and the practice theory of Pierre Bourdieu to explore the ‘problematic’ aspects of institutional forces, key organisational change agents and the local political field associated with the adoption of accrual accounting in the South Korean public sector. We found that accrual accounting was driven by many factors including a local financial scandal, the advocacy of a civil society group and the ambitions and the ideology of key actors. The contribution of this paper is that it shows how the practices of accounting cannot be separated from their political and personal context.     

Changes in economic management systems in Hungary and other east European countries

Taking Hungary as an example, this article examines changes taking place in economic management systems in Eastern Europe. Developments in the political, institutional and economic sectors of Hungarian society are analysed, and current trends and problems are presented. Countries of Eastern Europe are classified into three categories in order to show how a need for change emerges under different constraints.     

Macroprudential policy in the EU: A political economy perspective

In response to the lessons of the global financial crisis, macroprudential policy is now firmly established as a financial policy area to prevent excessive risk taking in the financial sector and mitigate its effects on the real economy. However, macroprudential policy is facing several challenges relating to its political sensitivity and institutional context. These include political and interest group resistance, weaknesses in the governance framework, and limited institutional memory among policy makers. This article seeks to contribute to the contextual understanding of macroprudential policy by exploring how factors relating to these challenges influence policy in the EU. More specifically, it develops and empirically tests a number of hypotheses on how wider institutional and structural factors influence the actual use of macroprudential measures across Europe. The findings yield considerable support for theoretical predictions that institutions and contexts matter - Political pressure and interest group resistance tend to influence the intensity of macroprudential policy stances. Weaker policy stances characterise countries where banking systems depend on domestic banks, whereas the opposite holds for financial systems with significant market shares of other financial intermediaries. Results on institutional arrangements show that governance arrangements on relating to transparency influence policy stances. The results also indicate that policy makers' inertia is best counteracted by appointing a single macroprudential authority. The results differ somewhat depending on whether countries are based in the Euro zone or not. This suggests that policy frameworks that are multi-layered and complex pose tricky conundrums on how to ensure sufficient institutional autonomy, policy capacity and discretion among macroprudential authorities. This also has implications on other policy areas macroprudential policy, such as microprudential policy, crisis management and fiscal policy.     

Future subjunctive: backcasting as social learning

Backcasting represents a form of explicitly normative scenario analysis. This paper reviews some of the key theoretical and methodological issues that are raised by a backcasting approach and discusses how these are addressed in the Georgia Basin Futures Project, a five year participatory integrated assessment project focusing on modeling, scenario analysis and community engagement. The paper argues for a “second generation” form of backcasting, where the desired future is not determined in advance of the analysis but is an emergent property of the process of engaging with users and project partners. In this sense backcasting contributes to a process of social learning about possible and desirable futures.Subjunctive: A: Adj. 1b. Designating a mood, the forms of which are employed to denote an action or a state as conceived (and not as a fact) and therefore used to express a wish, command, exhortation, or a contingent, hypothetical or prospective event. (Oxford English Dictionary, p. 3122)     

Past and future of backcasting: The shift to stakeholder participation and a proposal for a methodological framework

This paper deals with the past, present and future of backcasting. After having reviewed the origin and developments since the 1970s, it is concluded that several varieties can be distinguished and that a shift has been made to broad stakeholder participation and towards a focus on realising follow-up and implementation. A methodological framework for participatory backcasting is proposed consisting of five stages and four groups of tools and methods that can be applied and are necessary in such a framework, while different type of goals are possible. The paper reports on two cases in which participatory backcasting was applied, the Novel Protein Foods project at the Sustainable Technology Programme in the Netherlands and the Nutrition case study of the Sustainable Households (SusHouse) project. The paper concludes that these have resulted in broad stakeholder involvement, sustainable future visions, analyses and construction of follow-up agendas, but that follow-up and impacts are quite different. A research agenda is proposed to compare and evaluate backcasting studies and their impacts after a couple of years, while the future of participatory backcasting is also briefly discussed.     

Futures studies’ backcasting method used for strategic sustainable city planning

Achieving a sustainable city requires long-term visions, integration and a system-oriented approach to addressing economic, environmental and social issues. This paper case studies a sustainable city planning project, Göteborg 2050, that uses the backcasting method. Visionary images of a long-term sustainable future can stimulate an accelerated movement towards sustainability. The paper describes a special kind of scenario methodology to build a future model for city development as a planning tool in facilitating a sustainable society. Backcasting in futures studies is widely discussed together with the comparison of three selected backcasting approaches, including Robinson's approach, The Natural Step Framework, and the Sustainable Technology Development approach. The purposes of this paper are to examine and discuss the use of the backcasting method within the Project Göteborg 2050, lessons learned and findings drawn from the experience. The case study shows that backcasting is an appropriate method in developing action plans for achieving urban sustainability. This work can be served as a model for sustainable city planning in Thailand as well as other countries.     

China's Healthcare Costing in Times of Crisis: Conflicts,Interactions, and Hidden Agendas

This paper presents a longitudinal interpretive case study on the development of healthcare costing in China over the period 2002 to 2015. Adopting a middle-range theory lens, the study explores dynamic interactions in the use of cost information among societal institutions and organizations. It reports the successful internalization of costing systems in public hospitals in Beijing, which supports the effectiveness of a hybrid steering mechanism combining both transactional and relational features; however, such successful internalization does not indicate the success of steering the lifeworld of institutions and organizations towards change. Notably, hospitals' responses to steering alter over time, from passive absorption to active manipulation, revealing how cost information may underpin hospital beliefs in marketization. At an institutional level, the paper provides empirical evidence for relational steering among societal institutions, where a reaction of ‘rebuttal’ is observed. It offers insights on how accounting can be a powerful tool in legitimizing such rebuttal, while keeping political considerations as hidden agendas. The findings suggest the importance of understanding lifeworld complexity at both societal and organizational levels, and cross-institutional collaboration in using accounting as a steering mechanism. The findings have important policy implications for public sector reform, both in China and worldwide.     

中国农业保险制度的变迁与创新

本文通过对改革开放三十年我国农业保险发展历程的梳理,运用新制度经济学的经典理论,从历史的角度展开对我国农业保险制度变迁的全方位研究,从国家层面来研究和探讨我国农业保险制度发展变迁与创新。通过这种制度分析,形成对我国农业保险制度变迁的一个清晰认识和准确把握,探索我国农业保险发展及其制度创新的特定路径依赖和路径选择,并在此基础上提出我国农业保险制度创新的未来方向。     

Credit stimulus and corporate excess employees

This study examines how the large and unexpected Chinese credit stimulus in 2008 affects firms' labor decision. Using a large sample of industrial firms, we find that state-owned enterprises tend to hire more employment than their counterparts after the credit stimulus. Mechanism analysis shows that the credit stimulus package is followed by lower financing costs and more bank loans for the state-owned enterprises, enhancing the degree of their excess employment compared with their counterparts. Moderating effect tests suggest that the overemployment effect is stronger in provinces with a high unemployment level, where the political leaders have stronger promotion incentives, in industries that are selected as the key stimulating industry, and in provinces with higher bank competition level, but weaker in provinces with higher marketization level. Finally, we find that the firm's overemployment caused by the credit stimulus plans decreases firm labor productivity. Overall, our findings shed light on how credit policy influence firms' labor decision and offer important implications for regulators.     

The role of biosolar technologies in future energy supply making scenarios for the Netherlands: Energy port and energy farm

This paper assesses the possible roles of biosolar energy systems in the Netherlands in the coming years. The appraisal is made in the light of EU Directives on renewable energy and reduction of CO₂ emissions, and the new Dutch Energy Agreement for Sustainable Growth. The assessment is made within the Dutch BioSolar Cells (BSCs) research programme on photosynthesis and its application in fuel production. Part of the programme is committed to societal debate by considering different options and uses of biosolar technology. To provide building blocks for these discussions, we conducted a comprehensive desk study supplemented with key expert interviews, and we identified and articulated the main drivers for the Dutch transition towards more sustainable energy supply. Next, these drivers were used to develop two futures: energy port and energy farm, representing institutional settings in which BSC technology could be implemented. Both represent fundamentally different types of innovation and are useful in assessing the effect of policies on future energy systems. Both scenarios were used in workshops with BSC researchers and policymakers. Their possible implications for the BSC programme itself, as well as the broader policy significance of the use of biosolar technologies in the Netherlands, are indicated.     

Political change and public security—the prospect of Taiwan

This paper examines the change in public security of the Taiwanese society that was caused by the political democratization movements and the cross-Strait interactions. In addition to sociological explanations of crime, this paper adopts and integrates theoretical concepts of futures studies. Official statistics of longitudinal essence were utilized to serve the purpose of macro analyses. Delphi survey method was employed in collecting micro data that were subsequently used for forecasting the future social life individuals anticipate. Findings support the macro hypothesis that political alteration directly as well as indirectly contributes to the change of public security. A chaotic progress in social order is in sight, and the restoration of public safety is not far away. The series of scenarios, forecasting on the basis of the time-frame concepts of futurists, is likely to begin and conclude within the coming five years. However, the manner the scenarios proceed can be altered depending upon how knowledgeable the government is in foreseeing the forthcoming probable future of chaos.     

政治问责视角下的政府财务信息供求机制研究

资本市场中的会计改革已经证实,宏观制度因素能够影响资本市场中的财务信息供求。在公共领域,学者们发现宏观层面的制度变化也对政府会计信息的供求机制产生影响。政治问责形式根据制度环境变迁,从而改变政府会计信息供求关系,引起政府会计改革,但将政治问责与财务信息供求联系起来的研究却屈指可数。论文从政治问责视角切入研究我国政府财务信息供求问题,从理论上探讨了政治问责与信息供求机制的内在关系;较为全面、系统地梳理了我国政治问责与政府财务信息供求的历史与现状;从我国目前的实际情况出发,结合具体案例进行论证,提出了相关的政府会计信息披露的政策建议。。     

Prospects for a national innovation policy in the USA

This article examines efforts in the USA to initiate and implement a national innovation policy, and from this future prospects are inferred. It is argued that unless a crisis atmosphere prevails for a considerable period the USA will develop and implement neither an innovation policy nor a ‘comprehensive-type’ industrial policy. The reasons for this are deeply rooted in US political values and institutions.     

Financial development,institutions and banks

This paper presents a framework for understanding the interactions between political and legal institutions, property rights protection, and their implications for financial development. Whereas the literature has answered questions on why some countries lag behind in terms of financial and economic development, the current study suggests how to get around some institutional attributes to spearhead financial intermediation and economic growth through a set of institutional, information, and banking reforms. It finds little support that common law legal heritage is more suitable than French civil law for some key features of financial development. It concludes that types of institutional and market reforms are more relevant to financial intermediation than legal systems. It proposes some ways forward to increase financial intermediation; and expects, over the long run, the proposed approach to financial development to be beneficial for a number of developing countries.     

Meaning and power in the design and development of policy experiments

Poorly designed or implemented policies impede a society's ability to adapt to changes in the policy environment. In order to avoid such situations, pilot projects and other forms of policy experiments can and are often used to test new approaches before their full-scale roll-out. Policy experimentation can provide meaning to policymaking by helping in framing or projecting the future, deriving alternate response strategies and monitoring any changes in the policy environment. At least in theory, the small scale and experimental nature of pilots can encourage policy innovations and reduce policy risks. The discussion in this paper examines three key challenges to policy experimentation all of which centre on questions of meaning in terms of understanding the future, and power in terms of the ability of governments to design and implement such actions. These are (1) the influence of politics and key stakeholders therein on the design and evaluation of experiments, (2) problems in the technical evaluation of policy experiments and (3) problems encountered in the diffusion of experiments and retaining the lessons drawn from them.     

Budgetary governance and accountability in public sector organisations: An institutional and critical realism approach

This paper analyses the impact of the institutionalisation of governance and budgetary policies on the accountability of organisational actors from an institutional and critical realism perspective. The study extends the framework by Burns and Scapens (2000) to critical realism. Findings from field studies conducted in two public hospital districts in Finland show two institutions of budgetary governance: the political and the technical. Accountability practices depend on how the institutionalised policies have reduced or increased the gaps between the real, the actual and the empirical domains of reality of the organisational actors involved and the governance policy that prevails at a given domain of reality. The use of budgetary information as a tool of governance and accountability in the empirical field of the study cannot be taken for granted.