Multiple equilibria and global indeterminacy in an endogenous growth model with congestible public goods

This paper extends the findings in Chen and Lee (2007) to show that the use of congestible public goods can produce both local and global indeterminacy in a two‐sector endogenous growth model with productive public services financed by income taxation. Basically, we observe the effects on growth rates by changing parameters, and compare the case of a single steady‐state with the emergence of dual steady‐states, identifying the feasible ways to avoid a possible low‐growth poverty trap. The novelty of our analysis is to detect the presence of global indeterminacy by making use of the Bogdanov‐Takens bifurcation theorem. Some examples are also provided to achieve concrete policy implications.     

Poverty Effects of Higher Food Prices: A Global Perspective

The spike in international food prices between 2005 and the first half of 2008 drew much attention to the vulnerability of the poor to such shocks. This paper provides a formal assessment of the direct and indirect impacts of higher prices of agricultural goods on global poverty using a representative sample of 63–93% of the developing world's population. To assess the direct effects, the paper uses domestic food price data between January 2005 and December 2007—when the relative price of food staples rose by an average of 5.6%—to find that the number of individuals living under the extreme poverty line increased by 155 million, with almost three‐quarters of this increase taking place in East Asia. To take the second‐order effects into account, the paper links household survey data with a global general equilibrium model, finding that the same increase in consumer prices of agricultural goods (modeled by increasing demand for first‐generation biofuels) would raise the number of individuals living under extreme poverty by 32 million, with nearly the entire increase occurring in South Asia and Sub‐Saharan Africa.     

扩大进口背景下中国进口对世界经济的影响——制造业就业的视角

伴随着中国经济的快速增长，中国在成为世界第一大出口国的同时也成为世界第二大进口国。以往对中国贸易的研究多是从供给端出发，然而从需求端来看，中国进口对世界经济的影响又有几何？本文在扩大进口战略背景下从全球制造业就业的视角对中国进口与世界经济的关系进行了实证分析，研究发现，通过对中国出口，相关国家的制造业就业实现正增长，但是两者关系会在不同贸易商品、经济发展程度和时间样本之间存在差异。在此基础上，本文进一步从就业创造和就业破坏等方面展开了机制分析。本文的研究表明，中国通过“世界市场”的角色在一定程度上降低了全球失业率，但同时也需警惕“进口竞争”对我国经济的影响。     

Ecological services to and from rangelands of the United States

The over 300 million ha of public and private rangelands in the United States are characterized by low and variable precipitation, nutrient-poor soils, and high spatial and temporal variability in plant production. This land type has provided a variety of goods and services, with the provisioning of food and fiber dominating through much of the 20th century. More recently, food production from a rangeland-based livestock industry is often pressured for a variety of reasons, including poor economic returns, increased regulations, an aging rural population, and increasingly diverse interests of land owners. A shift to other provisioning, regulating, cultural, and supporting services is occurring with important implications for carbon sequestration, biodiversity, and conservation incentives. There are numerous goods and services possible from rangelands that can supply societal demands such as clean water and a safe food supply. The use of ecologically-based principles of land management remains at the core of the ability of private land owners and public land managers to provide these existing and emerging services. We suggest that expectations need to be based on a thorough understanding of the diverse potentials of these lands and their inherent limits. A critical provisioning service to rangelands will be management practices that either maintain ecological functions or that restore functions to systems that have been substantially degraded over past decades. With proper incentives and economic benefits, rangelands, in the U.S. or globally, can be expected to provide these historical and more unique goods and services in a sustainable fashion, albeit in different proportions than in the past.     

Explaining Export Performance through Inputs: Evidence from Aggregated Cross‐country Firm‐level Data

Which trade barrier related to intermediate inputs forms a greater burden on the export performance of firms in developing countries? Using aggregated cross‐country firm‐level data covering 43 mostly developing economies, this paper estimates the marginal importance of the impact of various intermediate input trade cost barriers, namely tariffs, non‐tariff barriers (NTBs) and services barriers, on firms' export behavior. In a cross‐sectoral setting, this paper takes the firm's export performance in goods as a central focus to study the effects of these different trade barriers through the exporting firm's choice of use of intermediate inputs. The results show that the most significant trade barriers on inputs that impede export performance in developing countries are mainly NTBs and restrictions of services.     

农村公共品建设意愿一致性研究 ——基于我国“十县百村”的实证分析

本文利用“十县百村”的大样本调研数据研究农村公共品建设意愿的一致性问题。统计分析表明,农户最需要的三类公共品分别是乡村道路、灌溉设施和农村社会保障。通过对比村级和农户的公共品建设意愿发现,农村公共品建设的一致性程度很低。进而本文采用多元logit分析和线性回归分析得出影响一致性的因素有：性别、是否党员、是否从事农业生产、人均土地面积、是否是新农村示范村、村长是否选举、村级公共开支总额。本文最后提出了相关的政策建议。     

Understanding Japan's Capital Goods Exports

Japan is the leading supplier of sophisticated capital goods to East Asian countries. These goods embody advanced technologies and facilitate learning and productivity growth. Capital goods also represent 30–40% of Japan's exports. This paper investigates the determinants of these exports. Results from dynamic ordinary least squares estimation indicate that exports depend on exchange rates, income in the importing countries and downstream countries' exports to the rest of the world. Results from out‐of‐sample forecasts indicate that Japanese exports crashed in 2009 because of the perfect storm of a yen appreciation, a global slowdown and a collapse in Asia's exports.     

Less Developed Countries,Tourism Investments and Local Economic Development

This paper analyzes the forward linkages of a multinational's investment in a resort that kicks off tourism activity in a less developed country. We show that, under quite natural assumptions, overnight stays are increasing in the number of differentiated tourism‐related goods and services. These goods and services, if supplied by the local community, represent forward linkages of FDI in tourism. We investigate the multinational's incentives to promote, reduce or eliminate these forward linkages and the effectiveness of some policy instruments available to a local government to leverage on the presence of FDI and to stimulate domestic entrepreneurship.     

The Political Economy of the Global Environment

Issues of the ‘global commons’ have secured a prominent place in environmental discourse. The temperature-regulating functions of the global atmosphere and radiation control functions of stratospheric ozone offer clear examples of true public goods. Other environmental assets, such as biodiversity and forests, are treated as if they are public goods, but in reality are complex mixtures of private goods, local public goods and global public goods. The approach to the provision and protection of these goods has tended to focus on the development of international agreements, such as those at the Rio de Janeiro ‘Earth Summit’ in 1992. But do these agreements contain the relevant incentives to conserve the global commons? Much depends on one's view of human nature. The Scottish economic tradition suggests that unless incentives focus on ‘self love’, as postulated by Hume and Smith, improvements will, at best, be marginal. A richer array of policy measures is obtained by analysing the potential for ‘global bargains’, trades that improve the environment whilst making each party better off. The souls of Hume and Smith surely approve recent developments in practical global bargains.     

Should governments stop subsidies to private goods? Evidence from rural Latin America

This paper empirically documents the effects of subsidizing private goods to the detriment of the government's supply of public goods. We use a new data set from the rural sector in fifteen Latin American countries over the period 1985–2001 collected using a methodology that allows us to separate government subsidies to private goods from expenditures in the provision of public goods. The econometric evidence shows that the government's decision to subsidize either private or public goods has dramatic consequences for economic development. Reducing the share of subsidies to private goods (or, equivalently, increasing the share of public goods) in the government's budget has, ceteris paribus, a large and significant positive impact on rural per capita income, reduces certain undesirable environmental effects associated with output expansion, and contributes to poverty reduction.     

Property rights on First Nations reserve land

This paper examines the economic effects of existing private property rights on First Nations reserves. We focus on three regimes of land tenure: lawful possession, designated land and permits. These land regimes have been used to create individual landholdings and grant secure and transferable rights of use of reserve land. Using confidential census microdata and rich administrative data, we find evidence of a positive relationship between the use of these tenure regimes and homeownership rates, housing conditions and band's public spending. We also observe a positive relationship with average income. However, this last result is driven by the inflow of a non-Indigenous population not by improvements in Indigenous households’ income or on-reserve employment. Our findings thus suggest that while reforms to individual property rights on reserve have some positive effects, their scope remains limited and they are unlikely to constitute a transformative tool to alleviate poverty on reserve.     

Community-based development and poverty alleviation: An evaluation of China's poor village investment program

We conduct the first systematic evaluation of the world's largest community-based development program—China's flagship poverty alleviation program began in 2001 which finances public investments in designated poor villages based on participatory village planning. We use matching methods and a panel household and village data set with national coverage to compare changes from 2001 to 2004 in designated poor villages that began plan investments and in designated poor villages that had yet to begin plan investments. We find that the program significantly increased both government- and village-financed investments. While the program did not increase the income or consumption of poorer households, it did increase the income and consumption of richer households by 6.1 to 9.2%. We also find suggestive evidence that governance matters in the distribution of program benefits. Relative gains were greater for richer households in villages with more educated leaders, and higher quality village committees delivered greater benefits to both richer and poorer households.     

Demand for locally provided public services within the median voter's framework: the case of the Brazilian municipalities

In this paper we estimated the demand for local public spending for the Brazilian municipalities within a median voter's framework. The rationale for applying that framework came from the fact that in federal systems voters’ preferences are more likely to be reflected at the local level as the consumers of public services have a better knowledge of the benefits and costs of the local public expenditures. Results obtained are consistent with the theoretical background thus suggesting that this hypothesis might be useful to describe the demand for local public goods in Brazil. In particular, the use of quantile regression permitted us to investigate the impacts of the conditioning variables on local public expenses across different expenditures classes thus allowing for heterogeneity across municipalities. Our results also suggest that the impact of the city size on the quality of club goods shows crowding effects as γ is between zero and one. However, in the estimated models, marginal congestion slightly decreases with expenditure. This is a rather surprising result as one is tempted to conclude that the congestion effect should be higher on big cities. Yet, a more careful look shows the drawbacks of such an interpretation. The indivisibilities preclude the provision of certain services in small towns, concentrating their provision on larger cities. Hence, the higher expenditures of those big cities reflect not only a crowding cost but also the fact that these towns offer a wide range of services when compared to the small ones.     

Breaking up the collective farms

The de‐collectivization of Vietnamese agriculture was a crucial step in the country's transition to a market economy. The assignment of land‐use rights had to be decentralized and local cadres ostensibly had the power to capture this process. We assess the realized land allocation against explicit counter‐factuals. Depending on the region, we find that 95–99 percent of maximum aggregate consumption was realized by a land allocation that generated lower inequality overall, with the poorest absolutely better off. We attribute this outcome to initial conditions at the time of reform and actions by the centre to curtail the power of local elites.     

Does Government Expenditure Crowd Out Private Consumption in Italy? Evidence from a Microeconomic Model

An abnormal expansion of the public sector may create serious problems to the market economy, as the literature suggests. This issue is quite important in countries such as Italy where the size of the public sector and of its debt are quite relevant. In this paper a model, in the microeconomic tradition, is developed and applied to the italian economy using a quite general utility function to represent consumer's behaviour. The aim of the article is to set up a methological framework in which to test for the hypothesis that the provision of public and impure public goods crowds out private consumption. The main result of the analysis is that, in Italy, traditional public goods play a neutral role in expenditure decisions while impure public goods crowd out private consumption. This crowding out is created by over-production of these services; merit goods are direct complements to a wide range of private goods, but this beneficial effect is more than offset by the negative income effect related to their financing.     

The Division and Size of Gains from Liberalization in Service Networks*

If two disjoint country service networks involving a small and large country are connected as part of international liberalization in the presence of network externalities, the per capita gain for the small country from access to a large network will be large, and the per capita gain for the large country will be small. In contrast to goods, the benefits of liberalization in network‐related services are more likely to be approximately equally divided between large and small countries than is true of trade in goods, where benefits accrue disproportionately to the small country. We also argue that non‐cooperation in network‐related services trade may involve more extreme retaliation than suggested for trade in goods by the optimal tariff literature, so that relative to a non‐cooperative outcome, gains from liberalization in network‐related services become larger than from liberalization in goods. We develop simple models which we use for numerical examples showing these points, along with an empirical implementation for global telecoms liberalization for the US, Europe, Canada, and the rest of the world using the framework developed in the paper. This shows similar proportional gains to regions, consistent with the theme of the paper that goods and services liberalization differ.     

The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area

This paper describes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a fraction of non-Ricardian agents in order to estimate the effects of fiscal policy in the Euro area. The model takes into account distortionary taxation on labor and capital income and on consumption, while expenditures are broken down into purchases of goods and services, compensation of public employees and transfers to households. A newly computed quarterly data set of fiscal variables is used. Our results point to the prevalence of mild Keynesian effects of public expenditures. In particular, although innovations in fiscal policy variables tend to be rather persistent, government purchases of goods and services and compensations for public employees have small and short-lived expansionary effects on private consumption, while innovations in transfers to households show a slightly more sizeable and lasting effect. The effects are more significant on the revenue side: decreases in labor income and consumption tax rates have sizeable effects on consumption and output, while a reduction in capital income tax favors investment and output in the medium run. Finally our estimates suggest that fiscal policy variables contribute little to the cyclical variability of the main macro variables.     

Australian Opportunities through the Chinese Structural Transformation

China is now Australia's largest trading partner, continuing to increase its relative importance. Its growth and structural change have been the major determinants of the conditions under which Australia relates to global markets for goods, services and capital. China has been a labour surplus economy. Over the past half‐dozen years, China has entered the ‘turning point’ in economic development, in which labour becomes scarce, real wages rise rapidly, the surplus of savings over investment falls and there is some easing of growth rates in sectors that use resources intensively. This changes the nature of Australian opportunities in China.     

Optimal Redistribution with Productive Social Services

Publicly‐provided private goods are conventionally considered consumer goods. Departing from this perspective, we analyze the public provision of inputs that improve household productivity (e.g., education and childcare). In a two‐class economy with distorting taxation, public provision is always welfare improving with respect to pure taxation, given that the public input directly affects household productivity. Moreover, the case for public provision strengthens as households' heterogeneity in input demand fades out, contrary to consolidated results in the literature. The features of optimal provision schemes depend on the nature of publicly provided input, namely, if it substitutes household productive capacity or just helps households to exploit it.     

Valuing Global Ecosystem Services: What Do European Experts Say? Applying the Delphi Method to Contingent Valuation of the Amazon Rainforest

Valuing global public goods like the Amazon rainforest by stated preference surveys of a representative sample of the global population would be very costly and time consuming. We explore the use of the Delphi Method in contingent valuation (CV) by asking a panel of 49 European environmental valuation experts in two rounds what they think would be the result if a European CV survey of Amazon Rainforest protection plans was conducted. The experts’ best guess for the mean willingness-to-pay (WTP) by European households for preserving the current Amazon Rainforest, and thus avoiding a predicted loss in forest area by 2050 from currently 85% to 60% of the original forest in the 1970s, was 28 € per household annually as an additional income tax. Aggregated over all European households this amounts to about 8.4 billion € annually. This preliminary estimate indicate that WTP of distant beneficiaries is substantial, and could justify preservation of global ecosystem services where aggregated benefits of the local population often do not exceed the opportunity costs of preservation in terms of lost income from commercial activities. The income elasticity of WTP with respect to per-capita income in the European countries is 0.5–0.6. Recognizing the limitations and assumptions of the Delphi CV method, it could still be a time saving and cost-effective benefit transfer tool for providing international donors with much needed order-of-magnitude estimates of the non-use value of ecosystem services of global significance.