The Erosion of the German Middle Class

Since the mid-1990s, income inequality has increased more sharply in Germany than in many other European countries, as the economic basis of middle-class prosperity and security has crumbled. The new minimum wage, an increase in coverage by collective agreements, the re-regulation of atypical employment forms and the elimination of incentives to take marginal, part-time jobs are the keys to strengthening the middle-income groups in Germany.     

Examining the economic growth and the middle-income trap from the perspective of the middle class

In recent decades, while some countries have been growing consistently, others were not able to keep high growth rates and got stuck in the “middle-income trap.” This study aims to explore the relationship between the middle class and the persistence of economic growth, and understand the role of the middle class in avoiding the middle-income trap which is a serious threat for many emerging markets, yet an understudied topic in the academic literature. Our findings suggest that the key growth factors including the middle class, innovation, productivity, and foreign direct investment have diminishing marginal effect on economic growth. Moreover, the middle class plays an important role in avoiding the middle-income trap. We also find regional differences in the middle-class growth and economic evolution of emerging markets over time. To our knowledge, this is the first study examining the relationships between the middle class, economic growth, and the middle-income trap.     

Stabileres Tarifvertragssystem durch Stärkung der Allgemeinverbindlicherklärung?

The declaration of the general binding of collective agreements plays a minor role in Germany compared to other European countries. In particular, the number of extended wage agreements has declined greatly over the last two decades. Because of the declining bargaining coverage, calls for a stabilisation of the collective bargaining system are increasing. In this context, the greater use of the extension mechanism could play an important role. This article analyses the historical development of the instrument and explains different proposals for reforming the extension mechanism put forward by political parties and trade unions.     

Das Mindestlohngesetz — Hoffnungen und Befürchtungen

The German government plans to introduce a minimum wage from 2015. This must be understood as a response to the decline in collective bargaining coverage and the marked increase in employment in the low-wage sector. The authors discuss how many workers are affected by this new regulation and whether the minimum wage is too high in relation to the average wage of workers (Kaitz index). They assume that the introduction of a minimum wage in Germany can have a number of effects. It is not possible to forecast all the reactions and behaviour of market participants to handle higher wages and goods prices. Some authors warn that these measures are significant labour market interventions that could have adverse employment effects. They recommend allowing more exemptions from the minimum wage law than intended by the government, especially for young employees and student apprentices. Other authors hope that minimum wages would help to strengthen collective bargaining and stabilise wages. Some authors emphasise that there should be a careful evaluation of the economic effects by scientists.     

Equity dimensions of road traffic injuries in low- and middle-income countries

Globally, poorer population groups bear a disproportionate burden of avoidable morbidity and mortality from road traffic injuries. The distribution of road traffic injuries is generally influenced by socioeconomic factors. Poor countries bear a disproportionate burden of injuries and fatalities, and within countries, poor people account for a disproportionate portion of the ill health due to road traffic injuries. The main source of data for this paper was the road traffic injury database of the WHO World Health Report for 1999 supplemented by the WHO Global Burden of Disease Study 2000 report, and published and unpublished works. Fatality rates for 0-4 and 5-14 year olds in low- and middle-income regions, measured as deaths per 100,000 population, were six times the rates for high-income regions, while within low- and middle-income regions the rates varied widely. Within poor countries, poor people – represented by pedestrians, passengers in buses and trucks, and cyclists – suffer a higher burden of morbidity and mortality from traffic injuries. In rich countries, children from poor socioeconomic classes suffer more injuries and deaths from road crashes than their counterparts from highincome groups. The disproportionate burden of morbidity and mortality in low- and middle-income countries, and among low socioeconomic groups in those countries, illustrates problems of global inequities in health. The problems can be addressed through policies that focus on the road safety of vulnerable groups.     

Die Erwartungen der Wirtschaft für 2018

The German economy experiences a boom period. The leading economic research institutes upgrade their economic balance for 2017 to a growth rate exceeding two per cent and their forecasts for 2018 are equally positive. This optimism is widespread despite the UK’s exit from the EU, the protectionist tendencies and the difficult coalition-building in Germany. Technological innovations look ahead: manufacturing industry and trade sector have to react to digital transformation — i.e. electro-mobility, autonomous driving, the use of artificial intelligence and the spread of online trading.     

Foreign Ownership and the Extensive Margins of Exports: Evidence for Manufacturing Enterprises in Germany

We examine how foreign ownership of a firm affects the variety of goods that the firm exports and the number of countries it trades with. We construct a simple theoretical model of how foreign ownership may affect these extensive margins of exports and take this model to data from Germany, one of the leading actors on the world market for goods. In line with theoretical predictions we find that foreign‐owned firms do export more goods to more countries after controlling for firm size, productivity and industry affiliation. These differences between foreign‐owned firms and domestically controlled firms are highly statistically significant, and they are large from an economic point of view, with foreign‐owned firms exporting up to 39 per cent more goods to up to 31 per cent more countries.     

Strategies of Major UK Building Societies: 1987-1993 Review,Analysis and Implications

During the last 20 years, R&;D and innovation activities in the service sector have clearly increased. In particular, business services are believed to be one of the main drivers of technical changes and economic progress. Looking at the labour indices calculated over the period from 1982 to 1996 one notices a remarkable increase of over 70 per cent for business services. About 8 per cent of total employment in West Germany is in business services. In particular, by taking advantage of information and communication technologies, knowledgeintensive business service firms increasingly play the role of ‘converters’ of technological information within the economy. They are providers, purchasers or partners in the context of innovation. A sound innovation capacity, especially knowledge, creativity, market and management skills, lets them become bridges for innovation.     

Trade Policy Flexibilities and Turkey: Tariffs,Anti‐dumping,Safeguards and WTO Dispute Settlement

The commitment to lower import tariffs and to maintain tariffs at low levels entails political‐economic trade‐offs. Empirical work examining the relationship between such commitments and the ‘flexibilities’ that policymakers exercise to get around them is still relatively nascent, especially for emerging economies. This paper provides a rich, empirically based assessment of ways that Turkey exercised trade policy flexibilities during the global economic crisis of 2008–11. First, and despite multilateral and customs union commitments that might limit changes to its applied tariffs, Turkey exercised flexibilities during 2008–11 by making changes to both its applied MFN and preferential tariffs that could affect nearly 9 per cent of its manufacturing imports. Second, Turkey's cumulative application of temporary trade barrier (TTB) policies – that is, anti‐dumping, safeguards and countervailing duties – is estimated to impact an additional 4–6 per cent of Turkey's manufacturing imports by 2011. Other surprising results include Turkey's lengthy extensions to the duration of previously imposed anti‐dumping and safeguards beyond expected removal dates, conversion of product coverage from one TTB policy to another, extensive coverage of upstream and downstream segments of important industries and potential deepening of discriminatory preferences already inherent in existing preferential trade agreements.     

Strukturelle Schwäche der russischen Wirtschaft

The economic situation in Russia is dramatic. GDP decreased by alarming 3.7 per cent in 2015. The imposed economic sanctions as well as the fall in oil prices have contributed to the downward spiral. However, the real weaknesses of the Russian economy are more structural in nature. The strong dependence on the oil and gas business, corruption problems, setbacks in privatisation efforts and the inefficient use of the existing human capital require greater commitment on the part of the government to commit to a return to a sustainable growth path. Individual sectors and companies in Germany suffered considerable losses of revenue in the course of the economic crisis in Russia. Overall, however, the effect on the German economy has been rather moderate.     

Under-Reporting of R&D in Small Firms: The Impact on International R&D Comparisons

There is a widely recognised tendency for conventional measures of R&D activity to under-estimate the R&D investments of small companies. This arises due to small firms' emphasis on developmental rather than fundamental research, and because this activity is often informally organised. International survey evidence suggests a greater degree of formality in the organisation of R&D in German small firms. This reduces the likely degree of under-estimation of German small firms' R&D activity relative to that in the U.K. As a result, aggregate R&D figures may be under-estimating the true level by 13.9 per cent in the U.K. and 2.4 per cent in Germany. This is equivalent to around half of the historical difference between aggregate levels of business R&D in the U.K. and Germany.     

论民主发展的经济基础

经济发展通过不同的方式和途径促进民主化水平的提高。首先,经济发展带来了人口流动,促使社会结构发生变迁,社会资源总量的增加促使了教育水平的提升,在社会中形成了规模庞大的中产阶级,而中产阶级是民主发育的前提;其次,经济发展使人们交往范围扩大,并产生了新的社会规范,这构成了民主政治的社会心理基础和社会规范基础;再次,经济的发展更推动了公民社会的发育,而公民社会是民主成熟和巩固的必要基础。中国的民主发展必须以经济建设为中心,在经济发展的基础上,积极推进社会主义民主建设。     

Road safety determinants in low and middle income countries

The objective of this article is to summarize and review the literature on the determinants of road traffic injuries and fatalities, to identify the relevant research gaps in particular for low and middle income countries. We also present a cross-country analysis of the determinants of road traffic injuries and fatalities that take into account a wide range of potential environmental, economic and social factors. The present study focused on differences based on the level of development. The goal was to identify relevant commonalities that may assist in the creation of road safety policies common to countries at a similar level of development. The countries were divided according to the level of gross national income per capita, and these income-level groups were the primary units of interest. The results presented here focus on the differences by income level.     

Ein Grundeinkommen für Kinder

Children in Germany are disproportionately threatened by poverty. And despite the favourable macroeconomic situation, families rely increasingly on social assistance. The federal government wants to increase additional child benefits and reduce the marginal transfer withdrawal rate, which will increase the marginal burden on the middle class. To solve this dilemma, this article suggests increasing child benefits to approximately 400 Euro. The transfer withdrawal rate and the burden on small income families would decrease and administrative expenses would go down. The article also discusses the effects on income distribution, labour market incentives and fiscal policies.     

News and Events

Our aim is to report the findings of the initial three years of road traffic injuries (RTI) surveillance at Karachi and to compare it with previously published RTI-related data from Pakistan and other low-and middle-income countries. Data were collected through the RTI surveillance programme at Karachi (RTIRP) from the five biggest emergency departments of the city, which receive almost all the major emergencies of the city for the period September 2006 till September 2009. A total of 99,272 victims were enlisted by the RTIRP during the study period. Annual incidence of RTI is calculated to be 184.3 per 100,000 populations and mortality is 5.7 per 100,000 populations. Eighty nine per cent of victims are male and 73% are between 15 and 44 years of age. Commonest road user to be affected is riders of two wheelers (45%). Only 7% of affected motorcyclists were found to be wearing helmets at the time of the accident. Trends of injuries remained uniform over the years. Most frequent injuries were external wounds, followed by orthopaedic injuries. On the basis of our surveillance system, we have presented the largest RTI-related data from a metropolitan city of Pakistan to date.     

Initial results of Pakistan's first road traffic injury surveillance project

Our aim is to report the findings of the initial three years of road traffic injuries (RTI) surveillance at Karachi and to compare it with previously published RTI-related data from Pakistan and other low-and middle-income countries. Data were collected through the RTI surveillance programme at Karachi (RTIRP) from the five biggest emergency departments of the city, which receive almost all the major emergencies of the city for the period September 2006 till September 2009. A total of 99,272 victims were enlisted by the RTIRP during the study period. Annual incidence of RTI is calculated to be 184.3 per 100,000 populations and mortality is 5.7 per 100,000 populations. Eighty nine per cent of victims are male and 73% are between 15 and 44 years of age. Commonest road user to be affected is riders of two wheelers (45%). Only 7% of affected motorcyclists were found to be wearing helmets at the time of the accident. Trends of injuries remained uniform over the years. Most frequent injuries were external wounds, followed by orthopaedic injuries. On the basis of our surveillance system, we have presented the largest RTI-related data from a metropolitan city of Pakistan to date.     

中等收入国家沉浮对中国经济发展的启示

纵观世界经济发展进程，大部分国家进入中等收入阶段后，因快速发展过程中积累的问题不断凸显，很容易出现经济增长的停滞和徘徊，掉进“中等收入陷阱”，迟迟不能进入高收入国家行列，只有少数国家或地区成功跨越。当前，我国已进入中等收入国家行列，正处于艰难爬坡的关键阶段。总结中等收入国家沉浮的经验和教训将有利于中国规避“中等收入陷阱”，确保国民经济稳中求进并书写新的传奇。     

Einkommensschwache Personen: die jüngere Entwicklung in Deutschland

The article examines the structure and development of persons in low income households in Germany from 2011 to 2016. Low income is operationalised as a fixed percentage of median income of all households, similar to the EU’s risk of poverty definition. The low income population rose to 16 per cent in this period but this was the result of increasing average incomes. Above average levels of low income are seen in Eastern Germany and in the migrant population. Employed and retired persons are less affected than the unemployed or students. The increase in the numbers of low income households is mainly due to an increase in the number of migrants. The number of “poor” students has also increased.     

Die Demografi estrategie der Bundesregierung — ein Weg zu mehr Wohlstand?

How can Germany maintain its high standard of living as its workforce decreases in number and there are ever fewer skilled workers available? The economic challenge associated with demographic change is to achieve a productivity increase large enough to prevent a decline in the principal indicator of prosperity — per capita GDP. Does the demographic strategy pursued by Germany in 2012 refl ect this central challenge? Only to a certain extent. The core message of this paper is that qualifi cation — in the form of lifelong learning — is a central driver of increased productivity and is, by extension, the sustainable solution for Germany.     

State Visits and International Trade

Politicians travel extensively abroad, for various reasons. One purpose of external visits is to improve bilateral economic relations. In this paper, I examine the effect of state visits on international trade. Based on a large data set that covers the travel activities of the heads of state of France, Germany and the United States for the period from 1948 to 2003, I find that state and official visits are indeed positively correlated with exports. I first apply a gravity model of trade to control for other trade determinants and find that a visit is typically associated with higher exports by about 8 to 10 per cent; the results are sensitive to the type of visit (as they should). I then use a differences‐in‐differences specification to deal with the issue of reverse causality. The results show a strong, but short‐lived effect of visits on bilateral exports growth, which is driven by repeated visits to a country. Additional support is provided by an exploratory instrumental vari‐ables analysis.