Dancing to the Donors' Tune? Policy Choice in Aid‐Dependent Countries

Current aid rhetoric emphasizes the selective allocation of otherwise unconditional funds in support of the recipients' own plans, in contrast to the old donor practice of bundling money and policies. I show that when recipients have private information, policies reflecting their preferences and knowledge might result in such a regime. However, generous transfers can also induce them to conform to the outcome‐oriented expectations of donors at the expense of lower aid impact. Such behaviour is consistent with an abundance of case‐study evidence. Moderate disagreements over what the optimal policy is could actually produce better results. Certain forms of both donor competition and coordination might also eliminate this distortion, while a donor concern for need only removes incentives for aid‐seeking in the least needy countries. In summary, optimal aid policies are highly context‐specific, and donors should thus concentrate their efforts to practise more informed selectivity.     

International Capital Flows in the Model with Limited Commitment and Incomplete Markets

Recent literature has proposed two alternative types of financial frictions, i.e., limited commitment and incomplete markets, to explain the empirical patterns of international capital flows between developed and developing countries in the past two decades. This paper integrates these two frictions into a two-country overlapping-generations framework to facilitate a direct comparison of their respective effects. In our model, limited commitment distorts the investment made by agents with different productivity, which creates a wedge between the interest rates on equity capital vs. credit capital; while incomplete markets distort the investment among projects with different riskiness, which creates a wedge between the risk-free rate and the mean rate of return to risky capital. We show that the two approaches are observationally equivalent with respect to their implications for international capital flows, production efficiency, and aggregate output.     

Exchange rate determination: a theory of the decisive role of central bank cooperation and conflict

Economists’ faith that variable exchange rates benevolently equilibrate has been empirically disconfirmed. That faith is here tackled at its theoretical core with an exchange rate model that although ultra abstract, includes the undeniable fundamentals of market power and differential goals of central bankers and large-scale private players. It permits a game theoretic analysis under the assumption that all agents maximize their payoffs. The paper then relaxes the assumption of maximising agents, allowing for a more complex and thus realistic second version of the model that is interpretable within SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory of risk and uncertainty. In an experimental setting, this second version of the model points to: a) the inability of agents in central banks, governments and the private real and financial sectors to operate in maximising ways; b) destructive central bank conflict; and c) the widely discrepant outcomes arising from the dynamics of individual personality differences. The paper’s theoretical and empirical findings thus both point to the merits of a single world currency.     

Reforming Budgetary Institutions in Latin America: The Case for a National Fiscal Council

Latin America's economies have made tremendous improvements in recent years. Following the lost decade of the 1980s, economic growth has resumed. But the fruits of this progress remain to be consolidated. The political consensus supporting reform is fragile, and the economies of the region are still susceptible to destabilizing shocks, as recent events have underscored. Even well-devised economic policy strategies can be thrown off course by disturbances. This article proposes an institutional reform—a National Fiscal Council—designed to allow Latin American countries to break out of this vicious circle.     

Cellular phone etiquette among college students

There has been tremendous growth in the cellular telephone industry in recent years. This evolving technology has given rise to concerns over the social rules of etiquette governing cellphone usage behaviour. The present study was undertaken to better understand the perceptions of cellphone usage propriety among one of the most important target markets for cellphone products – young adults attending college. Data were collected from a total of 383 cellphone consumers residing in geographically diverse regions of the United States. Overall, the results indicated a high degree of agreement among respondents as to appropriate and inappropriate situations for cellphone usage. Respondents considered inappropriate situations for cellphone usage to include during worship/church, during class, in a library and in a movie theatre during a movie. Respondents considered it to be appropriate to use cellphones while on public transportation, in a supermarket, and to use a hands‐free set while driving. Specific differences were found as a function of geographic regions, gender and employment status.     

German dominance in the EMS

The paper assesses the merit of the view according to which the Bundesbank dominates monetary policy-making in the European Monetary System. Our tests give a strong rejection of German dominance and suggest, instead, that monetary policymaking in the EMS is interactive. There is evidence that the Bundesbank pursues her own policy goals in the longer run. But German independence does not imply German dominance.     

Stock Externality vs. Symbiosis in a Forest-Air System

Stock externalities and ecological interaction have similar equilibrium effects. The influence on the dynamics of an ecosystem, however, is quite different. The different effects are laid out theoretically in the context of a forest-air model. We compare a centralized, welfare-maximizing policy and decentralized policies. Finally, we numerically simulate the dynamic differences between stock externalities and ecological interaction.