Liberalization Agreements in the GATT/WTO and the Terms‐of‐trade Externality Theory: Evidence from Three Developing Countries

The terms‐of‐trade theory suggests that governments engage in trade negotiations with their trade partners in an effort to escape from a terms‐of‐trade prisoner's dilemma by mutually internalizing externalities that they impose on each other. In this paper, I use predictions of the terms‐of‐trade relationship to provide support for the theory based on the negotiating patterns of three developing countries during the Uruguay Round of the Generalized Agreements on Tariff and Trade. I use industry level import value as well as tariff schedules from these contracting party states that were graduated from the US Generalized System of Preferences list during the Uruguay Round. I exploit the rapid change in their tariff schedules from the best response to the optimal level within a single negotiation round to empirically test the terms‐of‐trade theory. I find that my estimates are consistent with the predictions of the theory as applied to these three developing countries that were compelled to negotiate for tariff concessions during the Uruguay Round.     

Multilateral trade and export-led growth in the world economy: some post-war evidence

In this paper, we address an empirical question: is there evidence to substantiate the assumption that the post-war liberalization of world trade has actually led to a significant increase in the world GDP? In our attempt to answer that question, time series data in the Penn World Table 6.1 are aggregated across countries to obtain a measure of world trade and output, and the total number of GATT/WTO member countries is employed as an explanatory variable to account for the impact of multilateral trade agreements, such as the Kennedy Round, Tokyo Round, and the Uruguay Round, on the trade-growth nexus. We then examine the relationship between world trade and the post-war GDP per worker across the world through the multivariate cointegration and error correction modeling and the Granger causality test. The results suggest that, at the global level, the post-war liberalization of multilateral trade has promoted both GDP and trade activities. There is also evidence that supports the export-led growth hypothesis in the world economy.     

绿色壁垒对我国贸易影响的对策

随着乌拉圭回合谈判的结束以及世贸组织的建立,“绿色贸易壁垒”成为国际贸易保护主义的主要特征。本文将从分析“绿色贸易壁垒”对我国外贸的影响入手,针对我国现状,提出相应对策。     

Import sensitive products and perverse tariff‐rate quota liberalization

Abstract This paper shows that a Tariff‐Rate‐Quota's (TRQ) minimum access expansion can perversely trigger domestic price increases. Often, TRQs have prohibitive over‐quota tariffs to mimic import quotas in providing minimum market access. In the WTO's Doha Round, it is likely that countries using TRQs will avoid aggressive tariff reductions if they increase the quota portion of TRQs. We show that when the import price lies between the unit cost of production and the price received by domestic upstream firms, an increase in import quota as a share of domestic production may cause an increase in the domestic retail price.     

PACIFIC RIM TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT: HISTORICAL ENVIRONMENT AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

Pacific Asia is deep rooted in its cultural heritage and historical background, which have set the tone for regions success. These same factors also have created rather different trading practices, compared with those of the West — practices that are less transparent and full of hidden private trade barriers.
Interdependence within the region suggests integration, but Pacific Asia has taken a course of non-exclusive cooperation rather than following the exclusive course of the European Community (EC) and of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The latter two trade blocs threaten the continued success and development of Pacific Asia. Although the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) sends relief, fostering a cooperative rather than a retaliative Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) organization offers the most promise.     

Tariffs and non-tariff barriers to trade in Hungary: The impact of the Uruguay Round and EU accession

International trade has featured prominently in Hungary's rapid transition to a market economy. This paper reports some relatively simple summary and complementary indicators for tariffs and non-tariff barriers (NTBs) to trade, which are designed to reflect the level and structure of tariffs and the scope of NTBs in Hungary. The existence of tariff 'spikes' and highly pervasive NTBs in certain sectors constitutes prima facie evidence that the domestic dead-weight efficiency and net welfare losses caused by tariff and non-tariff protection as well as the costs to consumers could be high. The indicators are used to highlight several key developments associated with Hungary's transition to a market economy, implementation of the Uruguay Round (UR) agreements and possible accession to the EU.     

The effects of the Uruguay round: empirical evidence from U.S. industry

This article uses an event study to evaluate the anticipated results of the Uruguay Round on U.S. industry. Economists commonly use computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to predict the net economic efficiency effects of trade agreements. The event study method represents a complementary approach that relies on stock price movements to assess how investors predict that an event, in this case the conclusion of the Uruguay Round, will affect industry profitability. The empirical estimates indicate that U.S. industries with comparative advantage (disadvantage) experience positive (negative) stock price reactions, reflecting an increase (a decrease) in the industry trade and investment opportunities as well as an increased (decreased) return to existing tangible and intangible assets. For the market as a whole, the variation in stock prices does not differ significantly from zero, and the economic magnitude of industry gains and losses is small. These results are consistent with most CGE assessments and with the skeptical attitude that the real impact of the Uruguay Round Agreement remains uncertain.     

Unemployment and the welfare effects of trade policy

Abstract.  In this paper the welfare effects of tariffs and import quotas in the presence of involuntary unemployment are derived and compared. The framework used is the standard model of a competitive small open economy with many goods and factors. Optimum levels of the respective trade policy instruments are derived, as well as welfare increasing reform strategies. In all cases, the labour intensity of the import‐competing sectors turns out to be a crucial variable for deriving the welfare effects. JEL classification: F13, F16     

Market Growth, Structural Change, and the Gains from the Uruguay Round

It is found that market growth and structural changes will affect the results of quantitative analyses of the Uruguay Round. Rapid economic growth in Asia, and relatively deeper cuts in protection in that region, result in larger proportionate welfare gains in the year 2005 than in the year 1992. It is also found that changing comparative advantage, and shifts in global demand, result in substantial changes in the restrictive effects of the bilateral quotas on textiles and apparel. Accounting for the factors associated with market growth and structural change adds 30% to the estimates of global welfare gains from the Uruguay Round.     

Preferential Trading and Real Wages

Following the Stolper–Samuelson type of logic, the general impression is that freeing up trade, whether preferentially as in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) or on a nondiscriminatory basis as in the Uruguay Round, must lower real wages in one set of countries and raise them in the other set of countries. An increase in the real wage in all countries as a result of freeing up of trade either relies on gains via an improvement in the terms of trade or requires special assumptions such as increasing returns, complete specialization or asymmetries in production technology. This paper shows that even within a standard three-country, three-good, small-union model, preferential trade liberalization can lead to increased real wages in both partner countries without necessarily relying on terms-of-trade improvements, increasing returns, complete specialization, or asymmetries in production technology.     

Trade creation,trade diversion and imbalances in the EMU

The aim of this paper is to provide a unified explanation for the mixed evidence on the euro effect on trade and the development of imbalances in the European Monetary Union (EMU). It is argued that the two phenomena are the result of trade creation and trade diversion effects generated by the euro introduction and by globalisation-induced changes in trade patterns. Trade creation and trade diversion effects are estimated as structural changes in the relation between trade flows and financial opening, growth, prices, and measures of globalization. While most of these effects point to the increase in imbalances, financial opening is found to positively affect intra-EMU trade. On the other hand, GDP growth and global changes in production technology reduced intra-EMU trade. The results suggest that policies aimed at rebalancing the EMU should be strengthened and supported by measures aimed at improving the competitiveness of the single market as a whole.     

Sensitive products in the Doha negotiations: The case of European and Japanese market access

Given the highly concentrated distribution of agricultural protection, allowing in the negotiations too many exceptions through sensitive products puts at risk the objectives of World Trade Organization. This issue is difficult to analyze with the commonly used applied trade models, because they represent trade flows at an aggregate level, while sensitive products are picked at the product level and their protection, under the form of tariff-rate quotas, is contingent on the level of imports. This paper assesses the effect of these exceptions, based on the case of agricultural trade protection in Europe and Japan, two countries where tariff dismantling in the agricultural sector is a particularly sensitive issue. Since agricultural border protection is heterogeneous, we avoid aggregation bias by extending a multi-country computable general equilibrium model to the product level. This allows us to represent trade policies explicitly and to account for their interdependencies. The results suggest that consideration of sensitive products strongly limits the potential gains from a possible agriculture agreement at Doha. Moreover, there is no aggregate trade-off between decreasing tariffs and increasing/opening quotas. To achieve “substantial” market access improvements in the agricultural sector, the objective should be most favored nation tariff reduction.     

Did the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture Affect Trade Flows? An Empirical Investigation for Meat Commodities

The Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) was designed to reduce trade barriers and temper domestic and export policies that affect trade flows in agricultural commodities. This paper employs a dynamic framework to estimate the effects of the URAA on trade flows, as measured by export volumes, of three meat commodities. The model controls for several important factors, including regional trade agreements, and finds that the URAA had mixed effects on meat exports. Several complicating factors and policy responses, including increasing use of non-negotiated trade barriers, smaller export subsidies and domestic support, and limited effectiveness of market access provisions, explain the mixed empirical results.     

India’s Green Revolution: Economic Gains and Political Costs

Research and development (R&;D) promotion policies are critical for economic development in the sense that they contribute to technical progress. Although it is true that policy space is restricted under the World Trade Organization (WTO) system, there are still some R&;D promotion policy measures made available to developing countries. It is thus necessary for developing countries to utilize such available measures. In addition to explaining the R&;D promotion measures available under the current WTO regulations, I provide suggestions for modifying the Uruguay Round Subsidies Code with respect to the R&;D promotion policies of developing countries from the viewpoint of “distributional fairness” in international trade relations.     

ENDOGENOUS PROTECTION IN A TRADE LIBERALIZING ECONOMY: THE CASE OF SOUTH AFRICA

This article aims to establish the changes that occurred in the institutional structures governing trade policy in South Africa during the period 1990–1998. It also examines the forces that influenced the application of tariff policy by the major tariff-setting bodies by applying various theories of endogenous protection to their decisions. Using firm-level data on applications made to the Board on Tariffs and Trade, the study finds that when estimating a probit model, employment considerations rather than capital invested influenced the board's decisions to grant protection. In addition, the board is found to have granted protection even in the face of tariff lines having been bound under the Uruguay Round. The article argues that this should not be interpreted as a reversal of the trade liberalization but rather as an attempt by the board to cushion firms from the acceleration in the tariff rationalization process that occurred after the GATT offer. Finally, it is suggested that the board's response to changes in import penetration ratios between industries that were considered organized provides prima facie evidence of the superior lobbying ability of such industries.     

Effort, trade, and unemployment

Abstract.  This paper incorporates equilibrium unemployment caused by efficiency wages into a monopolistic competition model of trade. Worker effort is treated as an endogenous variable that depends on the optimizing behaviour of firms and workers. Opening up trade induces firms to demand greater worker effort and to cut the size of their workforce. This counteracts the positive employment effect due to entry of firms. Circumstances are indicated in which the two effects just balance, leaving aggregate employment unchanged. Trade unambiguously increases worker effort, thereby enhancing within-firm productivity.     

Quotas and equilibrium relative prices in the trade restricting country

This paper is concerned with the effects of international trade restriction through quotas. It is shown that a casual relationship exists between the fraction of licences distributed domestically, the terms of trade, and the domestic relative price of the importable.     

Institutional quality and the effectiveness of aid for trade

Trade policy barriers and high transaction costs hinder developing countries from taking the full advantages of the global trading system. In order to help developing countries overcome the problem, the World Trade Organization (WTO) launched the Aid for Trade (AFT) initiatives in its Ministerial Conference held in Hong Kong in 2005. We examine the effects of AFT inflows on bilateral trade costs facing 133 developing countries while accounting for differences in their location on the contours of various measures of institutional quality. Our results from the estimation of a mixed effects (random-intercept and random-coefficient) model indicate that institutional quality significantly affects the extent to which AFT reduces bilateral trade costs. An important policy implication of our findings is that an economically robust and sustainable reduction in bilateral trade costs facing developing countries requires the presence of both promulgated and effectively functioning institutions such as regulatory power and the rule of law.     

Trade creation and trade diversion in the Canada – United States Free Trade Agreement

In this paper the changes in trade patterns introduced by the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement are examined. Variation in the extent of tariff liberalization under the agreement is used to identify the impact of tariff liberalization on the growth of trade both with member countries and non-member countries. Data at the commodity level are used, and the results indicate that the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement had substantial trade creation effects, with little evidence of trade diversion. JEL Classification: F13, F14
Création de commerce et diversion de commerce dans l'Accord de libre-échange Canada-U.S. Ce mémoire examine les changements dans les patterns de commerce international engendrés par l'Accord de libre-échange entre la Canada et les Etats-Unis. La variation dans l'intensité de libéralisation tarifaire selon les secteurs dans l'Accord est utilisée pour identifier l'impact de la libéralisation tarifaire sur la croissance du commerce à la fois entre les pays membres et avec les pays non-membres. A l'aide de données par produits, on montre que l'Accord a eu des effets substantiels de création de commerce mais qu'il n'y a pas lieu de croire qu'il y a eu beaucoup de diversion de commerce.     

The Cairns Group and the Uruguay Round of International Trade Negotiations

The Cairns Group was formed out of frustration among comparatively efficient agricultural exporting countries about a series of changes in the conduct of world agricultural trade over which they, as individual countries, could have no influence. They are collectively significant as producers of agricultural products, with more value added in agriculture than either the EC or the United States, and as agricultural exporters, with more such exports than the EC and the United States combined. Their cohesion, stemming from the reduction in their net agricultural export earnings by more than half as a consequence of protection in industrial countries, and their unique combination of industrial and developing countries has given them an extraordinary influence over the conduct of the Uruguay Round. This article quantifies their collective interest in agricultural trade reform, reviews their contributions to the Round and examines their interest in the reforms which are most likely to emerge from it.