将消费看成是人力资本积累的一个来源及其意义--一个动态经济增长模型和基于中国数据的实证检验

本文发展了一个动态经济增长模型,发现消费与收入之间的短期关系非常不同于长期关系.相对于其他消费理论分析框架而言,该模型具有明显包容性,并与Granger-Engle非经典时间序列方法成功实现了"对接".凯恩斯边际消费倾向递减律、永久性收入假说、生命周期假说、随机游走假说,以及曼昆的λ假说等消费理论或假说,也都可以在这一框架下得到解释,或者说上述理论流派或假说都属于特例.实证分析结论不但支持该理论框架,而且比较恰当地刻画出了我国转型经济中的重大政策和制度变迁的影响.将消费看成是人力资本积累的一个来源,是解释消费与收入之间的短期非稳定关系和长期均衡关系的重要途径.在这个框架下也很容易认识到,从长期视野来看,公平与效率本质上存在一致性.对于寻求解决诸如扩大内需、社会主义新农村建设、集约增长方式选择等诸多中国当前面临的现实问题,以及有关发展政策、公共政策和宏观政策等而言,本文不失为一个具有启发意义的参考基准.     

论凯恩斯的"萧条经济学理论体系"

在凯思斯的经济学说中,一国短期的均衡就业量和收入水平,决定于有效需求,而有效需求又是由消费需求和投资需求构成的.消费需求是由消费倾向所决定的;投资需求是由资本边际效率与利息率决定 的.由消费需求和投资需求构成的总需求和现有生产要素所决定的总供给,决定一国短期均衡的就业和收入 水平.凯恩斯是由就业不足引到有效需求不足、引到投资不足与消费不足乃至货币不足,构成了被人们称之为"萧条经济学体系".在资本主义出现有效需求不足、经济萧条和严重失业时,凯恩斯主张采取积极财政政策,直接增加政府的支出和公共投资,以刺激经济增长,解决失业问题.因为消费倾向在短期内是相对稳定的,因而要实现充分就业就必须从增加投资需求着手.     

凯恩斯的失业理论对破解当前我国失业难题的启示

从资本主义社会失业的常态、资本主义社会失业的成因、资本主义社会有效需求不足的根源、资本主义社会医治失业问题的办法四个角度,对凯恩斯的失业理论进行系统、深入的分析,并且对其进行评述。认为凯恩斯的失业理论对破解当前我国失业难题的启示有两点：一是大力扶持民间经济的发展,充分发挥民间经济对就业的拉动效应;二是扩大消费需求,带动经济与就业的协调增长。     

全面重启改革议程

对于当前的经济增长问题,目前比较流行的分析框架是投资、消费、出口三驾马车的强度决定产出增长率高低,但是三驾马车的分析是源于凯恩斯主义短期的宏观经济分析,是分析短期经济问题的工具。按照凯恩斯主义的政策得出的结论主要是以发货币、加投资、扩需求、保增长。但是凯恩斯主义主要是用来分析短期问题,被用来对付长期问题则是错误的。     

用实践的标准检验凯恩斯的就业一般理论

<正> 当代英国资产阶级庸俗经济学家凯恩斯于1936年出版的《就业利息和货币的一般理论》(以下简称《一般理论》),曾经在资本主义世界名噪一时,直至目前仍对一些资本主义国家的经济政策发生重大影响。《一般理论》的主要内容是论述充分就业问题。凯恩斯认为,社会就业取决于有效需求的大小;而有效需求则由“消费倾向”、“对资产未来收益的予期”和对“灵活的偏好”即对货币的偏好这三个基本心理因素,“工资单位”以及货币量所决定。在凯恩斯看来,资本主义社会失业人口的存在,并不是由资本制度所造成,而是由于有效需求不足;经济危机并不是资本主义基本矛盾的产物,而是由于资本家对投资的未来收益缺乏信心而造成的资本边际效率(予期利润率)的“突然崩溃”。凯恩斯以有效需求理论为依据,一反传统的资产阶级经济理论的     

内生性通胀与外生性通胀理论——兼议凯恩斯经济学的衰落与复兴

凯恩斯经济学派的衰落源于一个长期无法解决的问题,这就是通货膨胀无法与宏观经济实现顺周期的问题.人类最理想的宏观经济情形就是菲利普斯曲线所描述的那样:经济繁荣时有通胀无失业,经济萧条时有失业无通胀,但"滞涨"打破了这一局面,现实经济与菲利普斯曲线的偏离导致凯恩斯宏观调控政策的失灵以及凯恩斯学派的衰落.本文提出了内生性通胀和外生性通胀的概念,其中内生性通胀完全是与宏观经济顺周期的,可以通过财政政策解决,而外生性通胀则与经济周期无关,需要用产业政策和货币政策有针对性地解决.本文还计算出了内生性通胀与经济增长之间的计量关系,这一中国新凯恩斯主义通胀理论的提出可以让凯恩斯经济学实现重新复兴.     

马克思与凯恩斯投资理论的比较

马克思与凯恩斯的投资概念具有相似之处,但凯恩斯更强调投资的市场需求约束;在投资的决定因素方面,马克思强调利润率、利率、劳动生产率等因素的决定作用,而凯恩斯强调资本边际效率与利率的决定;在竞争与投资的理论分析上,马克思的分析是一个长期的动态分析,而凯恩斯仅着眼于解决就业的短期分析;在投资与失业的分析上,马克思说明投资引起技术创新,技术创新对失业具有吸收与抑制的矛盾性影响,而凯恩斯则说明有效需求不足是原因,强调政府干预的政策。两位经济学大师对问题做出了不同甚至相反的解释,这是缘于他们具有不同的理论基础。     

斯密、凯恩斯和马克思分析资本主义经济的不同角度:长期、短期和超长期

斯密、凯恩斯和马克思这三大经济学家分析资本主义经济的不同角度可以分别用长期、短期和超长期来表示。凯恩斯的短期分析与斯密的长期分析的共同点是以资本主义经济制度为既定前提,分歧仅在于资本主义经济是否能够自动实现充分就业均衡。马克思的超长期分析与斯密的长期分析和凯恩斯的短期分析最根本分歧在于资本主义经济制度是否必将走向灭亡。在二者之间存在根本分歧的前提下,从马克思经济学的视角看,对资本主义经济的长期分析和短期分析并非毫无意义,而且是必要的;从西方经济学的视角看,马克思对资本主义经济的超长期分析也有重要借鉴意义,并对其发展产生了重要影响。     

世界经济形势 趋向和我们的对策研究(中)

<正> 二、新出现的重要国际现象与上述几个主要特征相联系,80年代西方经济中出现了一些重要的国际现象:经济政策思想和实践中的“保守主义回潮”,多极化的世界经济新格局,以及国家干预的国际化发展。这些重要的国际现象征90年代还将有所发展。第一,西方主要国家的经济政策思想和实践中的“保守主义回潮”。上期文章中曾提到英美等主要西方国家改变了经济战略,即从战后几十年来以“国家调节”为核心的凯恩斯主义战略,转向80年代以“自由经营”(“非国家调节”或“私有化”)为指导的供给学派、货币主义战略。正是这种战略的变换,在国际上掀起了保守主义的回潮。凯恩斯主义是在30年代大危机形势下,适应国家垄断资本主义发展的需要而产生     

赤字-增长联系:来自发展中国家的一些近期证据

一、引言在大萧条期间和之后,J·M·凯恩斯把预算赤字视为工业化国家反经济衰退和医治失业的补救措施之一。在发展中国家假定有大量失业和运用不足的人力及其它物力,那是这些国家典型地存在着的。决策者们认为,赤字财政可能是促进经济增长的一个有效工具。这种被坚持的财政政策可能有助于这些国家投资于急需的基础设施和其它经济发展项目。与之对照,在发展中国家地区也常有这样的看法:庞大的预算赤字与浪费性的政府开支、严重的官僚主义及其它不利生产的经济政策     

Are Full Employment and Social Cohesion Possible Under Financialization?

Unemployment and unequal income distribution were singled out by J.M. Keynes, in the General Theory, as major faults of capitalist economies. This paper argues that there is a negative relationship between financialization and unemployment. In particular, we develop a simple Post Keyneian/Kaleckian model and explore distribution as well as institutional channels through which financialization might have negatively affected the employment performance of capitalist economies, undermining the social cohesion and egalitarian development. Furthermore, we argue that in the face of financialization full employment is likely to be attainable under the institutionalization of an Employer of Last Resort (hereafter ELR) policy strategy.     

Are Full Employment and Social Cohesion Possible Under Financialization?

Unemployment and unequal income distribution were singled out by J.M. Keynes, in the General Theory, as major faults of capitalist economies. This paper argues that there is a negative relationship between financialization and unemployment. In particular, we develop a simple Post Keyneian/Kaleckian model and explore distribution as well as institutional channels through which financialization might have negatively affected the employment performance of capitalist economies, undermining the social cohesion and egalitarian development. Furthermore, we argue that in the face of financialization full employment is likely to be attainable under the institutionalization of an Employer of Last Resort (hereafter ELR) policy strategy.     

Comment: Lucas on involuntary unemployment

Keynes distinguishes three concepts: voluntary, frictional and(Keynesian) involuntary unemployment. Frictional unemploymentis a Classical form of involuntary unemployment (not voluntary,as Lucas suggests), and reflects the Marshallian, rather thanWalrasian, treatment of time and equilibrium. Lucas contradictsboth Keynes and Pigou in asserting that there are always immediatevacancies for unskilled labour, and abstracts from the veryproblem that Keynes seeks to address. If voluntary unemploymentis re-defined appropriately, as De Vroey helpfully suggestselsewhere, the prefix ‘involuntary’ is dispensable,not because all unemployment is voluntary, as Lucas would haveit, but because it is all involuntary.     

Financial constraints and unemployment equilibrium

The aim of this paper is to show that a robust determination of unemployment equilibria can be based on the integration of credit rationing into a general equilibrium model. We first review some of the Keynesian macroeconomic models. We show that the problems bequeathed by Keynes’ legacy are only partially solved by the strand of the new Keynesian economics based on market imperfections and endogenous rigidities. In order to overcome these problems we refer to credit rationing. In particular, we build a simple general equilibrium model in which prices are–in principle–perfectly flexible and credit rationing implies unemployment equilibria.     

Endogenous, Efficient Long-Run Cyclical Unemployment, Endogenous Long-Run Growth, and Division of Labor

The paper uses a dynamic equilibrium model to explain the concurrence of economic growth and business cycles. Introducing durable goods into a model with ex-ante identical consumer–producers and economies of specialized learning-by-doing, the author shows that when job-shifting costs, economies of specialized learning-by-doing, and trading efficiency are sufficiently large, a dynamic equilibrium with business cycles and unemployment might be Pareto superior to noncyclical growth patterns. Long-run cyclical unemployment still exists when the credit market is imperfect. Extending the model into overlapping generations framework, the author shows that complete division of labor with business cycles would still occur in equilibrium.     

Lucas on involuntary unemployment

The aim of this paper is to examine critically Lucas' argumentsagainst Keynes's General Theory and in particular against Keynes'sconcept of involuntary unemployment. It comprises two main parts.In the first part of the paper, the author questions Lucas'sclaim that Keynes betrayed the equilibrium discipline by freeinghimself from the postulates of optimising behaviour and marketclearing. In the second part, Lucas’ three arguments againstthe involuntary unemployment concept are discussed—first,that there is no rationale for drawing a distinction betweentwo sorts of unemployment; second, that every economic outcomefeatures the voluntary and the involuntary jointly; and third,that alternatives to unemployment are always present.     

Joan Robinson's disillusion with economics

In her last public comments on the state of economics, Joan Robinson made some extraordinary remarks that conveyed profound pessimism and theoretical nihilism. To account for the bleakness of Robinson's later views on economics and economic policy this article examines her last decade. These years were marked by an array of reverses to the causes she espoused. While ill health and a propensity to be provocative coloured her disposition, her comment about economic theory disintegrating in her hands was not made casually; it was, rather, an acknowledgement that her project to integrate Keynes with the classical surplus theory had failed. This acknowledgement crystallised into her rejection of the long-period equilibrium interpretation of Keynes's theory of unemployment. At the end of her life Robinson was willing only to embrace the more traditional short-period Keynesian model grounded in uncertainty and expectations.     

Dynamic Externalities and Policy Coordination

The paper introduces trade into dynamic models with externalities and capital accumulation, and evaluates the efficiency of the Cournot–Nash equilibrium. It considers mixed economies characterized by a blend of strategic and nonstrategic sectors. Also, there are two sources of interdependence: the existence of production externalities and the endogenous determination of market prices. It is shown that policy coordination is not needed when preferences are the same. In this case, the production externalities are internalized, so that an inefficient solution becomes the efficient integrated world equilibrium due to trade.     

International Trade and the Equilibrium Rate of Unemployment in a Heckscher-Ohlin World Economy

This paper develops a (stylized Asia-America) Heckscher-Ohlin world economy in which the equilibrium rate of unemployment is endogenous. We examine the impact of various economic shocks on unemployment in the global economy. Harrod-neutral or Hicks-neutral technical progress across all industries in Asia leads to a terms of trade improvement for America but raises America's unemployment rate. Introducing a third country such as the block of former socialist economies results in higher unemployment for both Asia and America. Protection in America lowers American equilibrium unemployment but raises Asia's unemployment. [E24]     

The NAIRU reconsidered: why labour market deregulation may raise unemployment

According to the mainstream theory of equilibrium unemployment, persistent unemployment is caused mainly by ‘excessive’ labour market regulation, whereas aggregate demand, capital accumulation and technological progress have no lasting effect on unemployment. We show that the mainstream non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) model is a special case of a general model of equilibrium unemployment, in which aggregate demand, investment and endogenous technological progress do have long‐term effects. It follows that labour market deregulation does not necessarily reduce steady‐inflation unemployment. Theoretically, if the decline in real wage growth claims owing to deregulation is smaller than the ensuing decline in labour productivity growth and in the warranted real wage growth, then in that case steady‐inflation unemployment may increase. Empirical evidence for 20 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries (1984–1997) indicates that the impact of labour market deregulation on OECD unemployment is zero, and possibly negative (causing a higher rate of unemployment).