Public sector risk managers and spending cuts: mitigating risks

This paper reports case study research, the results of which are used to consider whether councils have recognised the potentially substantially increased social risks they may create as they seek to reduce their spending in line with the UK Government’s programme of public sector austerity. It discusses the conceptual shift in the public sector risk management literature towards social risk management (SRM), presents empirical evidence of social risks and considers the approach to SRM developed by other organisations. It finds no evidence of SRM within the case study authorities and so advocates a shift in the public sector risk management culture from a preoccupation with defensive-institutional risk management practices to a more proactive social dimension. In so doing, it discusses the goals of SRM, the constraints limiting their achievement, metrics for measuring social risk, tools for mitigating social risk and the problems faced when operationalising SRM.     

寿险资金运用的风险限额管理

资金运用风险是寿险公司面临的两大最主要风险之一,加强资金运用风险管理对确保寿险公司持续稳健经营至关重要。风险限额管理作为风险管理的核心内容,是风险管理体系中不可或缺的组成部分。建立一个科学、可操作和有效的风险限额管理体系,为寿险资金运用风险管理提供控制标准,是决定风险管理成效的关键环节。本文借鉴风险限额分配模型,总结寿...     

The concept of risk society as a model for risk regulation – its hidden and not so hidden ambitions,side effects,and risks1

Beck’s risk society has become a highly influential theory in sociology and has begun to influence risk policy-making and regulation. The theory has been given too much credit, however. This article identifies and analyzes the troubling features of risk society, and demonstrates that it is a loose set of vague ideas, feelings, and hunches, rather than a theory. Risk society, as distinguished from modern industrial society, is a risk management society concerned with the identification and distribution of risks arising from industrial activities, while downplaying natural and other risks. Devoid of empirical content and analytical tools, it promotes a simplistic precautionary anti-industrial environmental and safety ethic. Risk society involves politicization of science and self-interested activism in risk management decision-making. Due to its unrealistic dogmas, ambitions, and side effects, risk society is unable to manage risks effectively and efficiently, and poses a threat to constitutional democracy. Policy-makers and risk managers, therefore, should not rely on risk society theory in designing and implementing risk management structures and regulations.     

Self-determination and risk: the role of life goals and causality orientation in domain-specific risk propensity

A growing body of risk research shows that risk is content specific. Accordingly, various studies have highlighted some factors that could explain why people’s risk propensity may arise in certain domains of risk (e.g. the financial domain) but not in other domains (e.g. the recreational domain). Until now, no research has examined motivation as a possible correlate of domain-specific risk propensity. On the basis of self-determination theory (SDT), we examined the role of both extrinsic life goals (i.e. superficial goal striving, including fame, money, and physical attraction) and control-orientated personality style (i.e. feeling that one’s behaviors are governed by external contingencies) in the propensity to take risks in various domains (social, ethical, recreational, financial, and health/safety). A community sample of 197 participants completed measures scaled to assess extrinsic life goals, controlled orientation, and domain-specific propensity (DOSPERT). The results showed that pursuing extrinsic goals and being control oriented increased the propensity to take ethical, recreational, financial, and health/safety risks but decreased the propensity to take social risks. In addition, to corroborate that risk propensity is domain specific, these results indicate that superficial life aspiration and sensitivity to social pressures are highly predictive of instrumental risks (e.g. ethical and financial), moderately predictive of health risks, and negatively predictive of ego-threatening risks (e.g. social risk). The results are discussed in light of the domain-specific risk literature and in the perspective of interventions based on SDT.     

Vulnerability,values and heterogeneity: one step further to understand risk perception and behaviour

The aim is to investigate differences in risk perception and behaviour among different population groups selected by gender, age, country of birth, disability and sexual orientation in the light of general values and vulnerability. The analyses use data from two Swedish national surveys from 2005 to 2008. People with foreign background perceive controlled and dread risks as a greater threat than do native-born people, but there is no difference in behaviour when general values and vulnerability have been controlled for. Compared to women, men rate known and dread risks as lower, but controlled risks as higher. Further, men’s behaviour is more risk-oriented and less risk-reducing, and homosexuals and bisexuals are more likely than heterosexuals to report risk behaviour. Compared to previous studies of the so-called White Male Effect carried out in the USA, gender does not play a similar role in Sweden. On the contrary, it seems as if gender is of less importance and that the strength of the association varies depending on type of risk or risk behaviour.     

巨灾风险管理的困境与出路——兼论中、美洪水灾害风险管理差异

在经历了几场罕见的大灾大难之后,巨灾风险已经成为举国上下共同关注的话题。许多学者迫切要求国家尽快建立所谓的“完整制度”或“管理体系”,实现巨灾风险管理。这种想法具有代表性。本文通过对中、美两国洪水灾害风险管理实践的分析,认为巨灾是目前人类难于应对和应对不了,而又不得不应对的一种自然灾害。无奈之下,人类可以有两个选择：一...     

我国巨灾风险可保性的理性思考

巨灾保险虽然一直未能真正踏上破冰之旅,但近年频发加剧的巨灾,使巨灾保险再次成为保险业的聚焦领域。巨灾风险可保性争论不休,业界徘徊不前,厘清巨灾风险的保险属性,可否引导市场参与巨灾风险的有效管理,特别是金融市场、保险市场和资本市场的联动推进,更是尚需解决的问题。基于巨灾风险管理的理论分析认为,我国巨灾风险具备可保性有其理...     

Managerial risk-reducing incentives and social and exchange capital

This study investigates the impact of managerial risk-reducing incentives on the firm's social and exchange capital. Using CEO inside debt holdings to proxy for the incentives of risk-averse managers, we find that CEOs with more inside debt holdings are likely to invest more in building social capital, which targets broader society and potentially offers anti-risk protection advantages, to shield the value of their inside debt. However, our results further show that managerial risk-reducing incentives have no impact on firms' exchange capital, suggesting the need to recognize the difference between social and exchange capital. These findings corroborate the view that CEOs invest in social capital as a risk management strategy. Furthermore, this paper presents an understanding of the role that institutional investors play in moderating the impact of managerial risk-reducing incentives on social capital. Our results suggest that institutional investors constrain CEOs that have greater inside debt incentives from investing in social capital. However, they are still willing to increase the investment in social capital for risk management purposes when firm risk is high.     

Risk assessments at the Royal Netherlands Air Force: an explorative study

In this paper, differences in the assessment of mission risks and mission benefits between operators and members of the management level in the transport helicopter branch of the Royal Netherlands Air Force (RNLAF) are studied. Results were obtained from a risk analysis that was conducted in accordance with RNLAF procedures. The analysis suggests that the two organizational levels have a coherent perception on risks despite their hierarchical position. Perceived measures of control – controllability – seem to induce the inclusion or the exclusion of what is appeared to be a risk. The analysis also suggests that risk management tools may obscure these perceptual differences. Risk management tools may therefore not be sufficient to attain safe operations. In discussions and future studies on risk management and on hierarchical differences in risk perception, this is something to take well notice of. Also, managers and others involved in risk management need to recognize the implications of using risk management instruments that are based on simplified models of risk. This research adds to the risk management theory because it connects multi-dimensional risk theory with actual organizational risk management practice.     

中国金融开放的外源性风险评估与预警机制

本文在构建金融开放的外源性风险指标体系的基础上,提出了评估金融开放外源性风险的“3δ”原理和风险的神经网络预警模型。利用中国金融开放的风险指标数据进行的分析结果显示,中国当前金融开放的风险级别处于安全状态。对26个发展中国家金融开放外源性风险的评估和预警表明,该原理和预警模型对金融开放的外源性风险的评估与预警具有一定的...     

基于作业的商业银行操作风险管理框架:实践者的视角

对无处不在的操作风险进行准确有效的界定、衡量和控制一直是商业银行没能很好解决的问题,原因之一是没能建立一个强有力的风险管理框架。本文从流程管理的角度提出了基于作业的操作风险管理框架(ABORM)。该框架将流程中的“作业”作为银行的基本业务单位,以作业为基础来寻找、确认操作风险驱动因素,进而构建(关键作业,风险动因)组合群。操作风险的衡量和控制都是在这些组合的基础上实现。基于作业的操作风险管理框架能够解决或回答操作风险管理中实践者关心的主要问题,具有较好的有效性和可操作性。     

From objective to constituted risk: an alternative approach to safety in strategic technological innovation in the European Union

Safety is a legitimate means of limiting technological innovation in our societies. However, the potential socio-economic impact of curtailing techno-industrial progress on the grounds of safety means that risk governance policies tend to restrict the range of legitimate approaches to safety on the principle that it can only be discussed in the frame of an allegedly objective scientific representation of risk. In European risk governance, socio-economic factors such as the underlying innovation rationales and goals are not openly considered to be related to the constitution of safety, but tend largely to be treated as factors of subjective reaction towards risk and technology. This paper seeks to overcome that approach by proposing a ‘constitutive’ understanding of how risk and socio-economic factors and dynamics relate, focusing in particular on the ‘safe and responsible’ development of nanotechnology in the European Union (EU). I argue that risk is constituted according to socio-economic considerations, and that the controllability of the environmental and health risks of nanotechnology in the EU is assumed on principle in the very strong institutional commitment to the industrial exploitation of nanotechnology R&D. Using a constitutive approach, we may legitimately conceive a broader set of potential safety scenarios, while at the same time highlighting major obstacles to implementing more critical constitutions of techno-industrial risk in the framework of a highly competitive knowledge-based global economy.     

Application of early risk detection concepts and methods to environmental health. A German feasibility study

Early risk detection is essential for being able to address the most important environmental health risk‐topics in a persistent and prospective manner. In support of the action programme “Environment and Health” (APUG) of the German Federal Ministry of Health and Social Security (BMGS) and the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, and Nuclear Safety (BMU) which recommended that a detection and evaluation system for the timely recognition of emerging risk problems be developed, a qualitative feasibility study was commissioned. The results of this study are presented here and support the development of an early risk detection system based on the insights gained from the investigation of case studies and the differentiation and presentation of a risk typology, methods, tools, and suggested organizational processes.

The study has shown that early risk detection includes the identification, characterization, evaluation and dissemination of information on possible risks as well as the circumstances of appearance and distribution. The goal is the recognition of possible risks in order for risk management to be able to introduce swift and appropriate measures. Consequently, it can also serve as an instrument towards further development of a balanced and structured implementation of the precautionary principle in the environmental health policy.     

The implication of extreme events on policy responses

This paper considers a situation where a real risk exists that requires precautions, but the public mostly experiences the risk through infrequently occurring extreme events; this type of risk includes risk from climate change, international terrorism, natural calamities or financial crises. The analysis shows that if a risk-mitigating policy is based on the perceived riskiness of that risk, it will call for disproportionate responses (compared to what the ‘real’ risk suggests) by either under- or over-investing in risk-reducing policies, depending on the characteristics of the problem, implying significant volatility in the policy response. This type of response provides at least three challenges to society: policy cycles where implementation lags behind the actual change in risk, a lock-in to inefficient technologies and additional costs. Finally, this paper addresses the question of how the above-mentioned challenges can be managed through proper risk communication.     

中国银行业经济资本管理的实施路径——从巴塞尔新资本协议获得的启示

经济资本是加强商业银行内部资本管理和风险管理的重要手段。借助经济资本和其他基于风险的管理工具，金融机构可以对其面临的风险进行量化，计算应对这些风险所需的资本及得出根据实际风险进行调整后的收益。对大多数国内银行而言，经济资本的应用已经落后于其他先进国家，本文试图从新资本协议IRB方法的基本思路入手，提出国内银行业在现有条件下提升经济资本计量水平的解决方案。并提出在目前条件下，为实现有效资本管理的最终目标，要尽快开发关键风险参数的量化模型，加强资本管理IT系统建设以及建立资本计划的制定和实施程序。     

地理分散化降低了多少保险经营风险?

本文定量分析了地理分散化对中国保险公司经营风险的影响。收集我国1998~2017年间各省市区的财产保险业和人身保险业的收入和支出数据,基于投资组合原理,比较了三种地理布局战略下保险公司的赔付风险。研究发现:无论是财产保险业还是人身保险业,各省区市之间赔付风险的差异性较大,在华北、东北、华东、中南、西南和西北这六大区域内部经营并不能显著地分散风险,但扩大到全国范围内经营,便能够较好地分散风险。进一步,采用Bootstrap随机模拟方法分析发现:财产保险公司在约10个省区市经营能够分散掉约80%的赔付风险,而人身保险公司在约5个省区市经营能够分散掉约40%的赔付风险。鉴于财产保险公司经营的各条产品线之间的风险差别较大,本文还发现:农业保险的地理分散化效果最强,短期健康险的地理分散化效果最弱。研究结果既支持保险公司跨地域经营以降低风险,也为监管资本设计中考虑地理分散化效应提供了经验证据。     

The relationship between liquidity risk and credit risk in banks

This paper investigates the relationship between the two major sources of bank default risk: liquidity risk and credit risk. We use a sample of virtually all US commercial banks during the period 1998–2010 to analyze the relationship between these two risk sources on the bank institutional-level and how this relationship influences banks’ probabilities of default (PD). Our results show that both risk categories do not have an economically meaningful reciprocal contemporaneous or time-lagged relationship. However, they do influence banks’ probability of default. This effect is twofold: whereas both risks separately increase the PD, the influence of their interaction depends on the overall level of bank risk and can either aggravate or mitigate default risk. These results provide new insights into the understanding of bank risk and serve as an underpinning for recent regulatory efforts aimed at strengthening banks (joint) risk management of liquidity and credit risks.     

Risk assessment for public–private partnership projects: using a fuzzy analytic hierarchical process method and expert opinion in China

Public–private partnerships (PPP) have been widely used in China to procure public facilities and services. Complicated problems in PPP projects in China arise because of a variety of risk factors. A proper risk assessment model is needed to identify risks and provide risk response strategies for future Chinese PPP projects. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP) method provides the ability to solve complex risk assessment of PPP projects. Current risk assessment models are limited to PPP projects in specific countries and do not consider unique risks in China, especially political, economic, social, and legal risks. This paper designed a risk evaluation index system for PPP projects based on the Delphi expert investigation method, and then established an optimized risk evaluation model for PPP projects in China using the F-AHP method. The risks identified are confirmed by interviewing experts from Chinese local government departments, private enterprise, third-party intermediary consulting and regulatory agencies, and academic organizations. The results show that the risks that ranked among the top ten are closely related to China’s political and economic policies and relationships among stakeholders. It can be concluded that government authorities play a critical role in providing a favorable political, social, and economic environment and an effective institutional framework for PPP projects. Furthermore, it is also important to deal with relationships among stakeholders based on the public–private ‘win–win’ principle. This study provides risk response strategies, addressing key issues from eight aspects: an impeccable legal and regulatory framework; a central coordinating and regulating PPP authority; supportive governmental authorities; institutional capacity-building; favorable economic conditions and viability; community, partner, and moral accountability; clear division of responsibilities through contracts; and effective advisory management. These effective measures may be useful in reducing the adverse effects of risk for PPP projects in China.     

Risk Management of Correlation Products

Trading units within the banking and dealer community that trade exotic instruments are well aware of the hazards of using traditional tools in analysing the risks resulting from positions taken in their specialised markets. The global risk management systems within these organisations have been slower to recognise the new risk profiles created by more recently traded exotic instruments. For traditional risks that are separable , the evaluation of risk at the individual trading units and the subsequent aggregation of risk across trading units captures the risks inherent in the portfolio. However, with non-traditional, non-separable risks, this division (by trading unit) and subsequent aggregation (by risk managers) of risks may obscure an increasing amount of risk found in the firm's trading operation.