Disaggregate productivity comparisons: sectoral convergence in OECD countries

International comparisons of productivity have used exchange rates or purchasing power parity (PPP) to make output comparable across countries. While aggregate PPP holds well in the long run, sectoral deviations are persistent. It raises the need for a currency conversion factor at the same level of aggregation as the output that is compared. Mapping prices from household expenditure surveys into the industrial classification of sectors and adjusting for taxes and international trade, I obtain an expenditure-based sector-specific PPP. Using detailed price data for up to 8 years between 1970 and 1999, I test whether the sectoral PPPs adequately capture differential changes in relative prices between countries. They work well for agriculture and the majority of industrial sectors, but not for most service sectors and for manufacturing sectors that produce differentiated products. Using the most appropriate conversion factor for each industry, productivity convergence is found to be taking place in all but a few industries for a group of 14 OECD countries. The latter results are robust to the base year used for the currency conversion.     

Flexibility and specialization in question; birth,growth and death rates of Cambridge new technology-based firms 1988–92

Insight into the investment behaviour of firms is central in understanding economic dynamics. A critical question, however, is whether firms provide sufficiently reliable data to enable them to make plausible forecasts at the meso (regional or sectoral) level. This paper analyses Dutch investment forecasts at different levels of aggregation. The central research question is whether entrepreneurs, individually or as a group, make systematic errors in their investment forecasts. A statistical test reveals that investment forecasts are not biased at the aggregated (regional and sectoral) level. At the micro level, however, there is a significant bias. Hence, using aggregated (regional and sectoral) data to test the lack of bias (unbiasedness) of forecasts may lead to the wrong conclusions. Moreover, aggregated investment forecasts may then be an inappropriate source for policy recommendations, despite their seemingly high reliability. This finding may in principle be valid for many European countries, since data collection on investment is organized in similar ways throughout Europe.     

R&D subsidies and productivity in eastern European countries

This paper shows that R&D subsidy policies at the European Union (EU) and national levels stimulated labor productivity in Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) in the years after their entry to the EU. However, the average impact of national funding on labor productivity was higher for countries in the Western control group than in the CEEC sample. EU R&D subsidies compensated the CEEC in part for the greater innovation impact of Western economies. Although they crowded out some R&D subsidies by local governments at the country level, the EU subsidies crowded in many national and local subsidies at the firm level. Local/regional state innovation aid to enterprises encouraged no increase in labor productivity in all but one of the sample CEEC countries. These impacts are assessed in a sequential structural econometric model estimated using Eurostat’s collection of Community Innovation Surveys covering the years 2006–2014.     

Engagement in European social dialogue: an investigation into the role of social partner structural capacity

Despite the importance of social dialogue for the European social model, there has been little attention to the factors that account for social partner engagement with European social dialogue. On the basis of data from 28 European sectoral social dialogue committees, this article investigates structural factors that account for the conclusion of European sectoral social dialogue agreements. It is found that actors' organisational density is a necessary but not sufficient factor for successful European social dialogue and four different categories of sectoral social partner engagement with European social dialogue are identified.     

The Economic Impact of International Migration within The UK Economy

There is a vociferous debate regarding the extent, impact and future policy direction of international migration. This has intensified following the expansion of the European Union and the accession of the eight Central and Eastern European countries. This article explores the recent trends in net migration, looking particularly at the impact at the sectoral and regional level. It finds that foreign workers appear to have had a significant economic impact in filling skills gaps and in helping to arrest population decline in those regions where previously this had been a fact of economic life.     

World,country, and sector factors in international business cycles

Do sector-specific factors common to all countries play an important role in explaining business cycle co-movement? We address this question by analyzing international co-movements of value added (VA) growth in a multi-sector dynamic factor model. The model contains a world factor, country-specific factors, sector-specific factors, and idiosyncratic components. We estimate the model using Bayesian methods for 30 disaggregated sectors in the G7 economies for the 1974–2004 period. Our findings show that, although there is a substantial role for sector-specific factors, fluctuations are dominated by country-factors. The world factor appears to play a minimal role because, when using aggregate data, the world factor captures both the factor common to all countries and industries and the factor common to the same industry across countries. We then examine how these factors evolved as globalization deepened over the past two decades. Our results suggest that business cycles at a disaggregate level have not become more synchronized internationally. This is mainly driven by a substantial fall in the volatility of world shocks during the globalization period, rather than a lower sensitivity of sectoral growth to world factors. Our results also reveal that world factors appear to be more important for industries with a higher level of international vertical integration.     

Supply,Factor Shares and Inflation Persistence: Re‐examining Euro‐area New‐Keynesian Phillips Curves*

Using euro‐area data, we re‐examine the empirical success of New‐Keynesian Phillips curves (NKPCs). We re‐estimate with a suitably specified optimizing supply side (which attempts to treat non‐stationarity in factor income shares and mark‐ups) that allows us to derive estimates of technology parameters, marginal costs and ‘price gaps’. Our resulting estimates of the euro‐area NKPCs are robust, provide reasonable estimates for fixed‐price durations and discount rates and embody plausible dynamic properties. Our method for identifying the underlying determinants of NKPCs has general applicability to a wide set of countries as well as of use for sectoral studies.     

Gross job flows and institutions in Europe

We examine job flows in the 1990s for a sample of 13 European countries. By using a dataset of continuing firms that covers all sectors, we find firm characteristics to be important determinants of job flows, with smaller and younger firms within services typically having a larger degree of job turnover. Once controlled for firm and sectoral effects, the role of institutions in the dynamics of job creation and destruction is examined. As expected, employment protection is found to reduce job flows. Similarly, countries with higher unemployment benefits and more co-ordinated wage bargaining systems are characterised by lower job flows.     

The economic impact of migration: productivity analysis for Spain and the UK

Over the past 20?years labour has become increasingly mobile and whilst employment and earnings effects in host countries have been extensively analysed, the implications for firm and industry performance have received far less attention. This paper explores the direct economic consequences of immigration on host nations?? productivity performance at a sectoral level in two very different European countries, Spain and the UK. Whilst the UK has traditionally seen substantial immigration, for Spain the phenomenon is much more recent. Our findings from a growth accounting analysis show that migration has made a negative contribution to labour productivity growth in Spain and a negative but negligible contribution in the UK. This difference is driven by a positive impact from migrant labour quality in the UK. This finding broadly holds across all sectors, but we note considerable variation in magnitudes. Labour productivity growth has a neutral contribution from migrant labour in construction and personal services in the UK, whilst in every case in Spain the effect is negative, most strongly in agriculture. Using an econometric approach to production function estimation we observe a positive long term effect on total factor productivity from migrant workers in the UK and a negative effect in Spain. Our findings suggest that either the UK is better at assimilating migrants or is more selective in terms of who is permitted to migrate.     

Analyzing credit risk transmission to the nonfinancial sector in Europe: A network approach

We use a factor model and elastic net shrinkage to model a high-dimensional network of European credit default swap (CDS) spreads. Our empirical approach allows us to assess the joint transmission of bank and sovereign risk to the nonfinancial corporate sector. Our findings identify a sectoral clustering in the CDS network, where financial institutions are in the center and nonfinancial entities as well as sovereigns are grouped around the financial center. The network has a geographical component reflected in different patterns of real-sector risk transmission across countries. Our framework also provides dynamic estimates of risk transmission, a useful tool for systemic risk monitoring.     

The Fading Attraction of Central Regions: an Empirical Note on Core–Periphery Gradients in Western Europe

Abstract

This paper describes sectoral core–periphery gradients across Western European regions over the period 1975–2000, and it estimates the impact of EU membership on countries’ internal geography. Overall, it is found that the centrality of European regions has been losing importance as a determinant for the location of employment. Central regions have gained employment share in none of the eight broad sectors analysed, whereas peripheral regions have significantly gained employment share in four of these sectors. Accession to the EU has favoured countries’ peripheral regions in terms of manufacturing employment and their central regions in terms of service employment.     

Austria and the Single European Market

The economic consequences—global and on a sectoral level—of the full participation of Austria in the process of economic integration in Europe are assessed with the help of the INFORUM system of interlinked input–output models and the Austrian model in this family, i.e. AUSTRIA IV. The results of two scenarios up to the year 2000 are compared. One scenario is based on the assumption of the full participation of Austria in the process of European integration. The alternative scenario is based on the hypothesis that Austria has to remain in an outsider position. The analysis shows quite relevant positive consequences of full participation by Austria in the process of European integration. Because of compensating forces, the effects on a sectoral level are much more pronounced than those on the global level. The structural implications on output, employment, etc. are quite remarkable.     

Trade,competitiveness and investment: an empirical assessment

ABSTRACT

The Eurozone crisis has exposed several weaknesses of the European Monetary Union economies. This paper aims to assess the impact on external competitiveness of an expansionary capital stock policy that could contribute to reduce the trade balance asymmetries within the EU and help European exporters to recover their competitive role in international markets. A policy action to increase capital stock accumulation through investment in selected European countries could generate a double dividend: increasing both price and nonprice competitiveness, so stimulating their competitive position as exporters, and consolidating the growth path of EU economy. The analysis employs a bilateral trade model built at INFORUM with several distinguishing characteristics: a comprehensive bilateral data set, econometric estimation of key parameters, and emphasis on sectoral details. Our findings show that a capital stock increase is effective in narrowing trade imbalances within EU. Heterogeneous effects are estimated for commodities in China and the US.     

Productivity impacts of infrastructure development in Asia

This study investigates the impact of infrastructure capital on total factor productivity in selected Asian countries. The scope of the assessment is broadened by exploring the effect of infrastructure development on sectoral differences in total factor productivity. The study calculated the total factor productivity over the period 2006–2016 for 16 manufacturing industries in 19 Asian countries. Further, the impact of lagged infrastructure and endowment is also explored with an eye toward improving different infrastructural measures. The empirical findings show that lagged infrastructure and endowment exert a positive and significant impact on infrastructural improvement. The impact of telecommunications, road, and power infrastructure on sectoral productivity is investigated by applying the fully modified ordinary least squares estimation technique to control the endogeneity problem associated with infrastructure provision. Overall, the empirical findings show that infrastructure provision, particularly the provision of telecommunications and power, is an important factor for explaining patterns of comparative advantage, whereas the provision of roads is important to explain patterns of absolute advantage. The results further indicate that road infrastructure is more important for low technology-intensive industries, while power infrastructure is crucial for high technology-intensive industries.     

Obstacles to transnational trade union cooperation in Europe—results from a European survey

This article analyses obstacles to transnational union cooperation within Europe. It is based on a survey of unions in 14 European countries and all members of the European Trade Union Confederation. The result shows that ‘hard’ industrial relations factors are generally more important obstacles to transnational cooperation than ‘softer’ factors such as cultural, linguistic, ideological and religious differences and that there are sectoral differences in experiences of obstacles to transnational union cooperation: unions in the manufacturing sector tend to emphasise differences in industrial relations and a lack of organisational resources for transnational union cooperation, whereas low organisational priorities are held to be of more importance in the services sector and for unions for professional workers.     

The Transmission of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: Are the Effects Different Across Countries?*

This paper analyses whether the effects of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) may be different across Euro area countries. First, the limitations in the current empirical literature are highlighted. The paper then suggests how to deal with these limitations and provides new empirical evidence on the effects of a common monetary policy shock across individual member countries. Surprisingly, very similar output effects are found across countries.     

The European sectoral social dialogue: questions of representation and membership

In the debates on the European social dialogue as a potential level of supranational industrial relations, the key questions of representations and mandates are often neglected. To what extent can the European sectoral social dialogue act for national constituencies across 27 Member States in the perspective of collective action by European associations? This article addresses this question by the means of three dimensions: the representation of heterogeneous members, the various degrees of national players' commitment in the European committees and finally, the definition of a common agenda among members.     

Investment in Fixed Capital Stock: Testing for the Impact of Sectoral and Systemic Uncertainty*

This paper applies current theory recognizing the irreversibility of investment, in order to test for the impact of uncertainty on investment expenditure for a middle income country. The contribution of the paper is unique in two respects. First, it employs dynamic heterogeneous panel estimation techniques not previously applied to investment functions. Secondly, it explicitly tests for the impact of both sectoral and systemic uncertainty on investment expenditure. We find that both sectoral (as measured by output volatility) and systemic uncertainty (as measured by political instability) have a negative impact on investment rates in a middle income country context. Liquidity constraints and growth in total factor productivity are found to have no impact on investment, while trade liberalization has the impact predicted by Heckscher‐Ohlin trade theory. Finally, we find complementarity effects between physical capital and skilled human capital, suggesting that South African educational policies may have hampered investment in physical capital as well as the growth performance of the economy. Policy implications emphasize the importance of lowering uncertainty for investors, and the need for sound human capital investment.     

Intersectoral labour reallocations and unemployment in Italy

The Italian labour market, like most European labour markets and unlike the US, shows a greater cyclical sensitivity of the service sector with respect to manufacturing and firing costs higher than hiring costs. This accounts for the negative relationship between sectoral employment shifts and Italian unemployment in the post-war period and, correspondingly, for the pro-cyclical pattern of the Lilien index, in contrast with the US experience.By applying the Lilien index to the Italian context, this paper analyses the relative importance of sectoral regional and national factors in the explanation of changes in industrial structure, and their impact on unemployment. The econometric exercise illustrates that, given the structural features of the Italian labour market, the decline in intersectoral and interregional labour reallocations has significantly contributed to the increase of unemployment in Italy. New hires, the pull of new sectors, sectoral shifts and regional mobility can keep unemployment down, while at the same time maintaining some of the structural features of the “European model” (high employment security and stability).     

Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data

We construct factor models based on disaggregate survey data for forecasting national aggregate macroeconomic variables. Our methodology applies regional and sectoral factor models to Norges Bank’s regional survey and to the Swedish Business Tendency Survey. The analysis identifies which of the pieces of information extracted from the individual regions in Norges Bank’s survey and the sectors for the two surveys perform particularly well at forecasting different variables at various horizons. The results show that several factor models beat an autoregressive benchmark in forecasting inflation and the unemployment rate. However, the factor models are most successful at forecasting GDP growth. Forecast combinations using the past performances of regional and sectoral factor models yield the most accurate forecasts in the majority of the cases.