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近期宏观经济指标一再低于市场预期,"稳增长"紧迫性进一步显现,及时调整宏观经济政策势在必行。建议实施以"补投资、促消费为重点,结构调整与总量松动结合,结构措施为主"的稳增长政策组合。财政政策应在"稳增长"中发挥"加油门"作用,运用结构性减税、加速折旧、扩大设备更新、基础设施薄弱环节和民生领域投资等工具来适当扩大投资、促进消费、稳定出口。货币政策需要发挥"松刹车"作用,运用利率、准备金率等工具及时解除前期反通胀中形成的紧缩惯性,消除经济继续下行诱因,促进经济及时回稳。一、实施"结构与总量结合、结构措施为主"的稳增长政策宏观经济数据中价格和供需指标持续"双降",说明前期反通胀 相似文献
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宏观经济研究院经济形势分析课题组 《宏观经济管理》2007,(11):20-23
一、2007年主要宏观经济指标的预测 2007年,我国多项宏观经济指标的增长比上年有所加快,整体经济基本实现了"又好又快"的发展目标. 相似文献
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我国宏观经济在2010年成功实现"V型"反弹后,于2011年步入增速下行的区间。2012年上半年,宏观经济不仅延续了2011年逐季回落的趋势,而且在多重因素的持续作用下,呈现出加速回落的态势。欧洲主权债务危机、美国债务上限问题以及全球不平衡的逆转,意味着世界经济步入结构重构和格局转换时期,决定了世界经济改善的步伐不仅十分缓慢,还充满了不确定性。受此影响,我国外部环境将面临持续的外需下滑和资本外逃的冲击,输入性衰退与波动具有中期化的趋势。因此,应关注宏观经济政策短期"稳增长"与中期"调结构"之间的矛盾,短期应利用刺激内需弥补外需的下滑,但刺激力度不宜过大,不宜对宏观经济增速回落做出过激反应,宏观政策的转向不能过猛。一、宏观经济走势预测与分析(一)宏观经济运行的主要特征 相似文献
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国家发改委宏观院形势课题组 《国有资产管理》2003,(6)
今年一季度,国民经济继续保持了去年以来较快增长的良好势头,多数宏观经济指标增长强劲,特别是居民消费价格指数在持续下跌一年后开始由负转正,生产资料价格强劲反弹,通货紧缩压力明显缓解。但是,对当前价格上涨也有人表示担心。我们认为,短期内物价回升力度有限,不易引发通货膨胀。 相似文献
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Using a long sample of commodity spot price indexes over the period 1947–2010, we examine the out-of-sample predictability of commodity prices by means of macroeconomic and financial variables. Commodity currencies are found to have some predictive power at short (monthly and quarterly) forecast horizons, while growth in industrial production and the investment–capital ratio have some predictive power at longer (yearly) horizons. Commodity price predictability is strongest when based on multivariate approaches that account for parameter estimation error. Commodity price predictability varies substantially across economic states, being strongest during economic recessions. 相似文献
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上市房地产公司由于其特殊的经济地位和所占据的重要社会地位,导致了它毫无疑问地成为了政府进行宏观调控的焦点。本文在阐述宏观经济要素对资本结构影响理论的基础上,利用多元线性回归模型实证分析了房地产行业的资本结构。实证表明:资产负债率与通货膨胀率呈反向变化,而与实际贷款利率呈同向变化,与GDP增长率和市盈率关系不显著。进而探讨了房地产上市公司资本结构的优化策略。 相似文献
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《Economic Systems》2008,32(1):70-91
Since the introduction of the euro in January 1999, exchange rate stability in the periphery of the euro area is growing. The paper investigates the impact of exchange rate stability on growth for a sample of 41 mostly small open economies at the EMU periphery. It identifies international trade, international capital flows and macroeconomic stability as important transmission channels from exchange rate stability to more growth. Panel estimations reveal a robust negative relationship between exchange rate volatility and growth for countries in the economic catch-up process with open capital accounts. 相似文献
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Maurizio Iacopetta 《Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control》2011,35(5):676-693
In this paper, I examine the transitional dynamics of an economy populated by individuals who split their time between acquiring a formal education, producing final goods, and innovating.The paper has two objectives: (i) uncovering the macroeconomic circumstances that favored the rise of formal education; (ii) to reconcile the remarkable growth of the education sector with the constancy of other key macroeconomic variables, such as the interest rate, the consumption-output ratio, and the growth rate of per capita income (Kaldor facts).The transitional dynamics of human capital growth models, such as Lucas (1998), would attribute the arrival of education to the diminishing marginal productivity of physical capital. Conversely, the model proposed here suggests that it is the rate of learning that catches up with the rate of return on physical capital. As technical knowledge expands, the rate of return on education increases, inducing individuals to stay longer in school. The model's transitional paths are matched with long run U.S. educational and economic data. 相似文献
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引入"里昂惕夫"生产技术,建立一个超边际-新兴古典一般均衡模型,分析交易效率对最终品的迂回生产结构的影响,以揭示资本市场形成的微观机制.研究显示,随着资本品和最终品的综合交易效率相对于生产者自用资本品的效率的充分改进,资本市场将出现在分工结构中,并对最终品市场产生促进作用;而资本品和最终品的交易效率对经济增长具有交互的正效应.从模型中得出的一项政策含义是:经济增长有赖于更大程度地改进资本市场和产品市场的交易效率. 相似文献
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我国银行体系的稳健性研究——基于面板VAR的实证分析 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
本文构建了我国银行稳健性指标体系的核心指标组,并合成银行稳健性指数BSI以综合评价我国银行体系的稳定性,检验了银行稳健性与经济增长、信贷规模扩张及资本市场价格之间的面板Granger因果关系。通过构建面板VAR模型度量了宏观经济与金融变量对银行稳定性的冲击。方差分解的结果显示,银行稳健性的波动主要受自身和GDP的影响,GDP增长率对BSI的波动的解释程度接近50%,说明银行的稳健性依赖于稳定的经济增长,受经济冲击的影响程度相当高。 相似文献
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Dilek Temiz Dinç Mahir Nakip Nayier Madadkhah Azari 《Journal of Transnational Management》2017,22(3):171-202
The issue of foreign trade and economic growth have been on the economic agenda for centuries. Foreign trade is a facilitator of goods and services exchange in the global marketplace and is an engine of economic growth in a country. Moreover, economic growth is a means to improve the output, employment opportunities, and welfare, which in turn could make a favorable impact on the positive foreign trade balance. Economic growth is also an essential component of country competitiveness in international markets. Yet, the objective of this study is to analyze the correlation between foreign trade and economic growth in some developing countries, including Iran and Turkey, by using econometrics applications (panel co-integration method and E-views software), also resting on credible national and international publications. Thus, it is estimated in the study that foreign trade has a positive impact on economic growth, resource allocation, energy and green energy consumption, human capital development, and physical capital consumption. 相似文献
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Abstract . This inquiry is an effort to evaluate the macroeconomic performance of the United States economy in the period after the close of World War II in terms of the macroeconomic goals to which national economic policy supposedly had been directed. That is, whether policy achieved full employment, price stability or an adequate rate of growth. Insofar as key indicators can be used as a basis for judgment—and there is, as yet, no scientific basis for measuring how far that reliance can be chanced—it would appear that policy was least successful in attaining full employment with price stability, or full employment, or price stability. In certain infrequent periods, growth seems to have occurred. But was its rate “adequate?” And did it result from policy? Analysis by key indicators may not tell us much, if anything; but it helps to delineate an approach toward policy-monitoring researchers need to cultivate. 相似文献
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《Economic Systems》2022,46(4):101022
In this study, we investigate the potential contribution of bank competition to macroeconomic stability, and the interactive role of financial development. We classify macroeconomic stability into economic and financial stability. Economic stability is represented by the volatility of actual and unexpected output growth, whereas financial stability is assessed by the aggregate Z-score and volatility of the private credit-to-gross domestic product ratio. We employ two structural and two non-structural measures of bank competition in our analysis. Applying a two-step dynamic panel system (GMM) to macroeconomic data from 48 developing nations from 1999 to 2018, we find a bell-shaped relationship between bank competition and macroeconomic stability. The findings imply that a higher level of bank competition promotes macroeconomic stability by reducing output growth volatility, fluctuations in private credit, and the probability of bank default. There is an optimal level of bank competition beyond which it may foster economic and financial instability. Moreover, financial development enhances bank competition’s positive impact on macroeconomic stability. 相似文献
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SEAN HOLLY 《Economic Outlook》1988,12(9):21-29
This Briefing Paper describes a new version of the London Business School model, which incorporates our most recent research on the supply side. The changes reflect the desire to improve the specification of the supply-side of the model, and to capture the effects of taxes on the incentives to save, invest and to work, while still retaining the basic features of the income-expenditure framework. The main features of the new model are: - Gross domestic product is determined as the sum of the outputs of five sectors. Previously GDP was determined by the demand side as the sum of the expenditure components. - Domestic demand for the output of the private sector depends on domestic absorption and on the price of this output relative to import prices. Overseas demand for exports depends on world economic activity and on the price of exports relative to the world price of exports. - Supply depends on the capital stock, real unit labour costs and real raw material prices. In the short run, input prices are allowed to affect the mix between goods which are exported and those which are supplied to the domestic market. In the long run, however, the mix depends only on the price of exports relative to the price of domestically supplied goods (i.e., relative profitability). - In the short run, disequilibrium in the goods market is reflected in adjustments to prices, inventories and the external balance. - Since gross domestic product is determined by summing the output of each sector, output decisions are reconciled with expenditure decisions by making imports the difference between final expenditure and aggregate supply. - In the long run, increases in government expenditure crowd out private expenditure, but the effect takes several years to come through. - A cut in corporation taxes which is not financed by higher taxes elsewhere boosts the supply side by raising investment and the capital stock, but not by enough to raise revenues sufficiently to pay for the tax cut. Private sector saving increases but not by enough to fund higher public sector borrowing, so the current account goes into deficit. - In the short run, both supply and demand factors influence economic activity; in the long run, the path of the economy depends only on population growth, capital accumulation and technical progress. 相似文献