大限将至看中国股市——一位证券公司资深人士的隐忧

2006年是中国入世的大限,届时金融领域将全面兑现入世承诺,此前三年的皆大欢喜也许仅仅是“小孩吃药——糖衣在前”。眼下的资本市场正忙着对付宏观调控带来的各种问题,根本无暇顾及大限将至对中国金融业和资本市场到底意味着什么。也根本意识不到宏观调控与2006年入世承诺的关系。为此,本刊记者与一位不愿披露姓名的证券公司老总进行了对话,从2006年入世承诺即将到期的视点,审视金融业和资本市场的各种问题,审视宏观调控的确切含意。     

刘俊海:从法律层面看资本市场发展

<正>一是,要推动中国资本市场的国际化,离不开中国资本市场的法制国际化。要打造中国资本市场竞争力,必须要以打造中国资本市场法律制度竞争力为前提。我认为,现在《公司法》、《证券法》和宏观调控的职能设计与资本市场国际化不相匹配,应以资本     

美、加资本市场发展对中国的启示

根据WTO协议的要求,中国迎接资本市场开放的新形势使得中国资本市场建设面临新的机遇和挑战.在这样的环境下,立足中国资本市场发展现状,积极借鉴和吸取美国和加拿大资本市场建设的有益经验,优化中国资本市场体系建设,发挥资本市场在实施自主创新战略中的重要作用,这些对加速中国资本市场的国际化进程具有现实指导意义.文章重点比较分析美国和加拿大资本市场结构、资本市场融资工具等方面的特点和差异,并结合中国资本市场发展现状,谈谈对加速中国资本市场国际化进程的启示.     

中国资本市场的渐进式国际化分析

本文是通过国际债务融资、外商直接投资（股权的国际化）和中国企业的海外上市方面分析中国资本市场国际化。本文认为，中国资本市场的国际化是渐进式的，它构成了中国经济渐进式转轨不可分割的组成部分。中国资本市场的渐进式国际化，是从对国际债务的过度依赖，逐渐走向股权资本市场的开放。在这一过程中，政府承担了较高的市场交易费用。中国的经济增长水平、中央银行贴现率（长期资本利率）、要素成本、关税保护水平以及进口水平是股权国际化的主要决定因素。由于中国经济正处于深入转轨的时期，以股权国际化加速资本市场的国际化，不仅面临股权国际化与产业整合不对称性，而且面临增加宏观调控成本的问题。面对这些因素，本文认为，加速中国资本市场的国际化不仅要解决资本市场的战略定位，而且应致力于开辟新的资本投资工具     

中国资本市场在全球经济失衡调整中的机遇与挑战

在未来全球经济失衡的调整过程当中，中国资本市场面临着国际金融资本转移、人民币升值等重大机遇。但监管体系欠发达、资本市场产业基础薄弱等问题也将制约着这些机遇的利用。中国资本市场的发展也可以从提升消费率、促进储蓄转化为投资、提高产业重组效率、改善宏观调控等多方面增强应对全球经济失衡的能力。因此．中国应该通过推进资本项目开放、完善汇率形成机制、做强资本市场产业基础等措施，确保中国资本市场牢牢抓住全球经济失衡给它带来的发展机遇，同时也更好地发挥资本市场在应对全球经济失衡中的作用。     

我国资本市场现状及发展

有效的资本市场在经济发展中具有重要作用,中国资本市场在规模、结构、规则等方面仍存在着制度缺陷.本文分析了我国资本市场发展现状、背景,以及我国资本市场存在的问题,并对资本市场在经济中的作用进行了说明,提出了中国资本市场未来发展趋势.     

流动性过剩背景下加息政策的效果分析

为了缓解流动性过剩,中国中央银行采取了一系列宏观调控政策,连续加息就是其中之一。从加息对房地产市场、资本市场以及经济增长的影响来看,加息政策对经济增长影响不大;对房地产市场存在时滞效应,且作用极弱;对资本市场影响有限。由此得出的结论是：利率不宜作为当前中国货币政策调控的主要工具,建议将调整汇率作为当前货币政策调控的主要工具,在现有人民币汇率基础上,盯住美元,保持人民币对美元汇率的长期稳定,减弱热钱涌入的冲动。     

境外资本进入中国出版市场的特征、趋势和规制建议

本文通过系统研究境外资本进入中国出版市场的方式、分布、战略行为,揭示了境外资本进入中国出版市场的行为特征和发展趋势.在此基础上,本文对规范境外资本进入中国出版市场的行为提出了规制与监管优化的建议.     

美国次贷危机对我国房地产市场的影响

美国次贷危机给处于经济高位运行的中国敲响了警钟。研究美国次级债市场现状，分析其对我国传统房地产宏观调控理论挑战和造成国际短期资本从中国房地产市场撤离等影响，总结经验和教训，提出我国政府应该从信用监管、实现商业银行资产证券化、稳定房价等方面进行改进，这对于保障我国金融市场及房地产市场的健康发展大有裨益。     

地区差距对中国GDP增长的影响——一个结构分析

地区差距是否如许多学者所说是中国中长期经济持续快速发展的障碍,本文在计量分析的基础上,给出否定答案.该实证分析的基本结论是:(1)中国的地区差距扩大对经济增长几乎没有影响,因此,针对地区差距展开的宏观调控仅能改善社会公平;(2)城市化、工业化和城乡收入问题滞后会削弱资本推动力,减慢整个经济增长速度;它们对经济增长的影响能力和资本投入相比具有同等重要性,是中国中长期经济增长真正可能的障碍;针对这些领域展开的宏观调控将改善资本效率,释放潜在经济增长能力.     

Monetary policy with heterogeneous agents and borrowing constraints

We show that the long-run neutrality of inflation on capital accumulation obtained in complete market models no longer holds when households face binding credit constraints. Borrowing-constrained households are not able to rebalance their financial portfolio when inflation varies, and thus adjust their money holdings differently compared to unconstrained households. This heterogeneity leads to a new precautionary savings motive, which implies that inflation increases capital accumulation. We quantify the importance of this new channel in an incomplete market model where the traditional redistributive effects of inflation are also introduced. We show that this model provides a quantitative rationale for the observed hump-shaped relationship between inflation and capital accumulation.     

Inflation and capital gains taxes in a small open economy

Inflation distorts an economy through many channels. This paper highlights the interaction between inflation and capital gains tax and their distortions to a small open economy through the financial market. This research captures several observations. First, capital formation or investment is an important channel for consumption smoothing over the life cycles. Second, capital gains are taxed only when the gains are realized. Third, inflation introduces an upward bias in the calculation of tax base. Thus, a capital gains tax in the presence of inflation can have a significant welfare effect even though its contribution to the government revenue is relatively small. The quantitative analysis shows that high inflation alone can lower social welfare. This problem becomes more severe when capital gains tax is introduced in an inflationary economy. The implicit inflation tax can be more hazardous to the economy than the explicit counterpart.     

通货膨胀、财政赤字与经济增长

铸币税和通货膨胀税作为政府隐性税收降低了居民可支配收入,通货膨胀与一般性税收之间的时滞对政府总财政税收产生了一定的影响,国内资本市场的不完善和政府对中央银行的直接干预是我国财政赤字和通货膨胀的主要原因,以通货膨胀促进经济增长不仅效果甚微,而且以改变居民经济预期的方式抑制了国内消费需求。     

Capital Trading,Stock Trading,and the Inflation Tax on Equity

A market for used capital goods, or financial instruments that represent the ownership of the used capital goods, induces inflation taxes on wealth and on the nominal income flows that they provide. This paper explicitly introduces trading in either used capital goods or financial instruments into the standard stochastic growth model with money and production. These two monetary economies are equivalent. The value of the firm is equal to the firm's capital stock divided by inflation. The resulting asset-pricing conditions indicate that the effect of inflation on asset returns differs from the effects found in the literature by the addition of a significant wealth tax. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E0, E4, E5.     

Inflation,taxes and housing: A theoretical analysis

This paper examines the real effects of inflation under a distortionary tax system. The presence of a tax subsidy to housing substantially alters the effects of inflation on the capital intensity of production and on the market interest rate. The analysis suggests that not taxing the flow of services from housing has caused inflation to reduce capital intensity, thereby decreasing U.S. productivity. Furthermore, this tax subsidy has caused inflation to raise the real interest rate while reducing the after-tax real returns to assets.     

An Endogenous Growth Model of a Financially Repressed Small Open Economy

The paper develops a monetary endogenous growth model of a financially repressed small open economy, characterized by curb markets, capital mobility, transaction costs in domestic and foreign capital markets, and a flexible exchange rate system, to analyze the impact of financial liberalization – interest rate deregulation and lower multiple reserve requirements – on growth and inflation. When the model is calibrated to match world figures, we find that interest rate deregulation enhances growth and reduces inflation in steady-state. For relatively smaller transaction costs in the curb market, the above result is, however, reversed. Under such circumstances, lowering the transaction costs in the foreign capital market tends to restore the growth-enhancing (inflation-reducing) capabilities of interest rate deregulation. Lower reserve requirements, though, always ensures lower (higher) steady-state inflation (growth).     

美元贬值对中国通货膨胀的影响:传导途径及其效应

本文结合有向无环图方法(DAG)及结构向量自回归模型(SVAR),分别从成本推动渠道、资金输入渠道和货币扩张渠道就美元贬值对我国通货膨胀影响的传导途径及其效应进行了实证研究。分析表明,由成本推动渠道,美元贬值会迅速带动我国工业品出厂价格上涨,能源价格、食品价格和金属价格的传导效应都很显著,而推动我国居民消费价格走高则存在一定时滞,主要依赖食品价格传导。此外,国际大宗商品价格上涨对我国通货膨胀的影响更侧重于生产领域。由资金输入渠道,美国联邦基金利率走低和美元指数下滑会带动国内商品房销售价格和资本市场价格的结构性上升,进而拉动我国通货膨胀,其中以市场利率和短期资本流动传导尤为显著。由货币扩张渠道,美元贬值对我国工业品出厂价格的影响更为显著,货币扩张主要通过外汇占款和人民币升值预期对我国通货膨胀产生影响,且以对消费领域的影响较为明显。本文的研究显示,我国当前承受着较大的输入型通货膨胀压力。     

A principal components analysis of market interest rates in The Netherlands, 1962–1970

This paper reports about a principal components analysis of 20 Dutch market interest rates. We found that on the money market 96% of total variation is explained by the first principal component and 2% by the second one. On the capital market these percentages are 90 and 8.The main conclusions are: (1) the first component identifies the true interest rate, while the second and third component are related to risk and the rate of inflation. (2) The textbook distinction between money and capital markets does not show up. (3) The use of many interest rates in macro models has only a limited economic meaning.     

虚拟资本运行与经济泡沫形成

虚拟资本有其不同于实物资本的运行特点和运动轨迹 ,随着虚拟程度增加 ,其自身价格变动已越来越脱离了它所代表的实际资本的内在价值 ,更多取决于证券市场上的交易状况 ,取决于证券市场上投资者的预期与信心。而这种对虚拟资本的预期和信心远比对实际投资的预期和信心来得脆弱 ,不确定性更强。虚拟资本比实物资本大得多、多得多 ,因而 ,虚拟资本本来就是以泡沫形式存在的。货币供求机制和信用制度在较大程度上决定了虚拟资本向经济泡沫的传导过程。经济泡沫本质是虚拟价值增殖的过度膨胀 ,经济泡沫对经济的影响是多方面和多渠道的     

Structural Changes and the Scope of Inflation Targeting in Korea *

A small, open macroeconomic model that accounts for new financial accelerator effects (the effects of fluctuations in asset prices on bank credit and economic activity) is developed to evaluate various policy rules for inflation targeting. Given the conditions of asset markets and the fragility of the financial sector, monetary policy responses can potentially amplify the financial accelerator effect. Simulations are used to compare various forms of inflation targeting using a model that emphasizes long-term inflation expectations, output changes, and the asset price channels. The simulations suggest that a successful outcome can be obtained by adhering to simple forward-looking rules, rather than backward-looking policy rules. Furthermore, inflation targeting can contribute to price as well as output stability by helping to keep the financial accelerator from being activated. Inflation targeting in emerging economies can provide an environment conducive to long-term capital market development. [E51,F3,F4]