The chicken or the egg? A note on the dynamic interrelation between government bond spreads and credit default swaps

This note provides the first empirical assessment of the dynamic interrelation between government bond spreads and their associated credit default swaps (CDS). We use data for the Southern European countries (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) that found themselves with a problematic public sector in the dawn of the recent financial distress. We find that CDS prices Granger-cause government bond spreads after the eruption of the 2007 sub-prime crisis. Feedback causality is detected during periods of financial and economic turmoil, thereby indicating that high risk aversion tends to perplex the transmission mechanism between CDS prices and government bond spreads.     

The Drivers of Sovereign CDS Spread Changes: Local Versus Global Factors

We use daily data for a panel of 34 countries to investigate regional differences in sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) spread determinants and the significance of local versus global market factors. Similar to prior studies, we find a high level of commonality among CDS spreads, but our results show that this effect is stronger in Latin American CDS. The results of our quantile panel regression model show that although global forces drive spreads across the conditional distribution, changes in credit ratings are significant in explaining CDS spreads only in the upper quantiles. We also confirm the existence of regional differences in spread determinants.     

Measuring the effect of watch-preceded and direct rating changes: a note on credit markets

This paper analyzes the importance of distinguishing between watch-preceded and direct rating changes for the credit default swap (CDS) market by examining a total of 2991 rating change announcements, 1526 watchlist placement announcements, and 430 rating affirmations following watchlist placements. The results show that watch-preceded downgrades do not lead to significant CDS market reactions, while direct downgrades are associated with a significant increase in CDS spread levels. Likewise, we document that watchlist placements for downgrade lead to increases in firms’ CDS spreads. CDS markets do not react to rating upgrades but watchlist placements for upgrade result in an immediate decrease in CDS spreads. Rating affirmations following watchlist placements for downgrade lead to slight reductions in CDS spreads, while affirmations following watchlist placements for upgrade have no effect on CDS spreads. These findings demonstrate the importance for empirical research on the interaction between credit markets and rating announcements to differentiate between watch-preceded and direct rating changes, particularly for rating downgrades.     

Sovereign CDS Spreads,Volatility, and Liquidity: Evidence from 2010 German Short Sale Ban

The paper examines global impact of 2010 German short sale ban on sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads, volatility, and liquidity across 54 countries. We find that CDS spreads continue rising after the ban in the debt crisis region, which suggests that the short selling ban is incapable of suppressing soaring borrowing costs in these countries. However, we find that the ban helps stabilize the CDS market by reducing CDS volatility. The reduction in CDS volatility is greater in the eurozone than that in the non‐eurozone. Furthermore, we find that the CDS market liquidity has been impaired during the ban for the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) countries. In contrast, there are no dramatic changes in the market liquidity for non‐PIIGS eurozone and non‐eurozone samples. The findings suggest that the short sale ban is ineffective to reduce sovereign borrowing costs in the debt crisis region if the underlying economy has not been significantly improved.     

Understanding the term structure of credit default swap spreads

The shape of the term structure of credit default swap (CDS) spreads displays large variations over time and across firms. Consistent with the predictions of structural models of credit risk, we find that the slope of CDS spread term structure increases with firm leverage and volatility, but decreases with the level and the slope of the Treasury yield curve. However, these variables together have rather limited explanatory power for CDS slope and there is a significant common component in the regression residuals. In addition, we find that CDS slope predicts future changes in the CDS spreads, even after controlling for the contemporaneous variables that determine changes in the CDS spreads according to the structural models. Our results suggest that while structural models are qualitatively useful for understanding the shape of credit term structure, there are missing factors that importantly affect the term structure of CDS spreads.     

Analysis of REIT IPOs Using a Market Microstructure Approach: Anomalous Behavior or Asset Structure

In this research, we examine and present new evidence on the market activity following the initial public offering (IPO) of a real estate investment trust (REIT) using microstructure data. We analyze the bid-ask spread differences for REIT securities compared to common stocks and closed-end funds for all IPOs between 1985 and 1988. Our results show that REITs, as a whole sample, experience significantly greater bid-ask spreads immediately following the IPO compared to common stocks and funds. However, this outcome is driven by the equity REIT sample, with the mortgage REIT sample having significantly smaller bid-ask spreads. This is in contrast to the evidence documented by Nelling, Mahoney, Hildebrand, and Goldstein (1995). We attribute our result to the underlying asset structure (such as equity, hybrid, and mortgage portfolios) of the various REITs. Overall, however, we find that bid-ask spreads for REITs are similar to those of common stock when both asset structure and the traditional determinants of the spread (share price, trade volume, and returns variance) are considered.     

The Performance of REIT-owned Properties and the Impact of REIT Market Power

Using a unique, detailed panel dataset of lodging properties, this paper tests whether properties owned by real estate investment trusts (REITs) perform differently than other properties and whether the concentration of real estate ownership brought about by REITs has increased market power. Our results demonstrate that REIT-owned properties, which are primarily mid-scale and high-end hotels, did not perform significantly better, on average, than other mid-scale or high-end hotels in the same geographic area. However, because of the superior overall performance of mid-scale and high-end hotels, REIT properties as a whole did perform better, on average, than non-REIT properties. From these results we conclude that the superior performance of REIT properties was due to the fact that REITs tended to acquire properties in market segments that performed well; REIT ownership in itself does not appear to have increased performance. Our results also suggest that the superior performance of the market segments in which REITs have a significant presence is not attributable to the market power of the REITs.     

Credit spread interdependencies of European states and banks during the financial crisis

We investigate the interdependence of the default risk of several Eurozone countries (France, Germany, Italy, Ireland, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain) and their domestic banks during the period between June 2007 and May 2010, using daily credit default swaps (CDS). Bank bailout programs changed the composition of both banks’ and sovereign balance sheets and, moreover, affected the linkage between the default risk of governments and their local banks. Our main findings suggest that in the period before bank bailouts the contagion disperses from bank credit spreads into the sovereign CDS market. After bailouts, a financial sector shock affects sovereign CDS spreads more strongly in the short run. However, the impact becomes insignificant in the long term. Furthermore, government CDS spreads become an important determinant of banks’ CDS series. The interdependence of government and bank credit risk is heterogeneous across countries, but homogeneous within the same country.     

Regime dependent determinants of credit default swap spreads

Credit default swap (CDS) spreads display pronounced regime specific behaviour. A Markov switching model of the determinants of changes in the iTraxx Europe indices demonstrates that they are extremely sensitive to stock volatility during periods of CDS market turbulence. But in ordinary market circumstances CDS spreads are more sensitive to stock returns than they are to stock volatility. Equity hedge ratios are three or four times larger during the turbulent period, which explains why previous research on single-regime models finds stock positions to be ineffective hedges for default swaps. Interest rate movements do not affect the financial sector iTraxx indices and they only have a significant effect on the other indices when the spreads are not excessively volatile. Raising interest rates may decrease the probability of credit spreads entering a volatile period.     

Credit derivatives and loan pricing

This paper examines the relation between the new markets for credit default swaps (CDS) and banks’ pricing of syndicated loans to US corporates. We find that changes in CDS spreads have a significantly positive coefficient and explain about 25% of subsequent monthly changes in aggregate loan spreads during 2000–2005. Moreover, when compared to traditional explanatory factors, they turn out to be the dominant determinant of loan spreads. In particular, they explain loan rates much better than same rated bonds. This suggests that CDS prices contain, beyond general credit risk, to a substantial extent information relevant for bank lending. We also find that, over time, new information from CDS markets is faster incorporated into loans, but information from other markets is not. Overall, our results indicate that the markets for CDS have gained an important role for banks.     

Do sovereign credit default swaps represent a clean measure of sovereign default risk? A factor model approach

In this study, we use a factor model in order to decompose sovereign Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads into default, liquidity, systematic liquidity and correlation components. By calibrating the model to sovereign CDSs and bonds we are able to present a better decomposition and a more accurate measure of spread components. Our analysis reveals that sovereign CDS spreads are highly driven by liquidity (55.6% of default risk and 44.32% of liquidity) and that sovereign bond spreads are less subject to liquidity frictions and therefore could represent a better proxy for sovereign default risk (73% of default risk and 26.86% of liquidity). Furthermore, our model enables us to directly study the effect of systematic liquidity and flight-to-liquidity risks on bond and CDS spreads through the factor sensitivity matrix. We find that these risks do have an influence on the default intensity and they contribute significantly to spread movements. Finally, our empirical results advance the idea that the increase in the CDS spreads observed during the crisis period was mainly due to a surge in liquidity rather than to an increase in the default intensity.     

Fear or fundamentals? Heterogeneous beliefs in the European sovereign CDS market

This paper proposes a model for credit default swap (CDS) spreads under heterogeneous expectations to explain the escalation in sovereign European CDS spreads and the widening variations across European sovereigns following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In our model, investors believe that sovereign CDS spreads are determined by country-specific fundamentals and momentum. By estimating the model we find evidence that, while some of the recent movements in sovereign CDS spreads can be explained by deteriorating fundamentals for core European Union (EU) countries, momentum has also played a destabilizing role since the GFC in all sovereign credit markets studied.     

主权CDS对欧元区主权债务危机的影响

本文概括了主权CDS是否影响欧元区主权债务危机的几种观点和研究,发现了其中的不足之处,并试图进行弥补。文章基于面板数据,在对样本区间和国家进行分组的基础上,用向量误差修正模型(VECM)检验了主权CDS息差与国债息差的价格发现过程,此外还用向量自回归(VAR)模型分析了各国主权CDS息差之间的传染效应。结果发现,虽然主权CDS在价格发现过程中占据领先地位,但是没有证据表明主权CDS与主权债务危机之间存在必然的联系,而各国债务危机之间确实存在传染效应。     

Credit default swaps and the UK 2008–09 short sales ban

Most studies of the short sales ban of UK financial stocks from September 2008 to January 2009 fail to control for the UK’s worst ever banking crisis and the underlying increase in risk. This paper studies the ban’s impact on the 13 large financials with credit default swaps (CDS) and 20 smaller stocks without CDS. The results reveal that returns of banned stocks Granger cause CDS returns in the pre- and post-ban periods, but causality runs from CDS to stock returns during the ban period. Underlying risk proxied by the CDS probability of default increased during the ban and the immediate pre- and post-ban periods which highlights an endogeneity problem ignored in some studies. This increased risk provides a plausible rationale for why CDS and related equity bid-ask spreads - which increased during the ban period – failed to fall significantly in the post-ban period. Panel regression results indicate that probability of default was an important economic determinant of stock bid-ask spreads during the ban period. Finally, our results suggest that the ban offered direct price support for the smaller non-CDS stocks during the ban period and indirect support for CDS stocks from their pre-ban to their post-ban levels.     

The impact of credit rating announcements on credit default swap spreads

We document the ability of the credit default swap (CDS) market to anticipate favorable as well as unfavorable credit rating change (RC) announcements based on more extensive samples of credit rating events and CDS spreads than previous studies. We obtain four new results. In contrast to prior published studies, we find that corporate RC upgrades do have a significant impact on CDS spreads even though they are still not as well anticipated as downgrades. Second, CreditWatch (CW) and Outlook (OL) announcements, after controlling for prior credit rating events, lead to significant CARs at the time positive CW and OL credit rating events are announced. Third, we extend prior results by showing that changes in CDS spreads for non-investment-grade credits contain information useful for estimating the probability of negative credit rating events. Fourth, we find that the CDS spread impact of upgrades but not downgrades is magnified during recessions and that upgrades and downgrades also differ as to the impact of simultaneous CW/OL announcements, investment-grade/speculative-grade crossovers, current credit rating, market volatility, and industry effects.     

Credit default swap spreads and annual report readability

This paper investigates whether annual report readability matters to CDS market participants and how it affects their evaluation on a firm’s credit risk, as measured by CDS spreads. We find that the less readable the annual reports, the higher the CDS spreads. Furthermore, the impact of readability on CDS spreads is more concentrated on firms with high information asymmetry and with investment grade ratings. Our results suggest that investors take into account the readability in their view of the firms’ credit risk. Creditors appear to suffer higher cost on CDS protection of the debts if the underlying firms have less readable annual reports.     

Credit default swaps and the market for sovereign debt

In this paper, we analyze the determinants and effects of credit default swap (CDS) trading initiation in the sovereign bond market. CDS trading initiation is associated with a 30–150 basis point reduction in sovereign bond yields, with greater yield reductions accruing to higher default risk economies. For countries with high default risk, rated B or lower by Standard and Poor’s, CDS initiation is also associated with significant price efficiency benefits in the underlying market. CDS trading initiation is more likely following increases in local equity index volatility, index spreads for regional and global CDS markets, or depreciation of the local currency relative to the US dollar, and decreases in a country’s ability to service foreign debt. Our results are robust to selection bias controls based on these factors.     

Credit default swap prices as risk indicators of listed German banks

This paper explores empirically the usefulness of credit default swap (CDS) prices as market indicators. The sample of reference entities consists of large, internationally active German banks and the observation period covers 3 years. By analysing the explanatory power of three risk sources: idiosyncratic credit risk, systematic credit risk and liquidity risk, we gain important insights into modeling the dynamics of CDS spreads. The impact of systematic risk, for example, has three components; one is related to the overall state of the economy, another related to the risk of the internationally active banking sector, and the third is an unobservable systematic factor. Default probabilities, inferred from a tractable reduced form model for CDS spreads, are compared with expected default frequencies from the Moody’s KMV model. The results lend empirical support to the hypothesis that structural models can be less informative than reduced-form models of CDS spreads in the case of banks with major investment banking activities as the leverage loses explanatory power. Although the CDS market appears to have matured over the observation period, during certain periods premiums for liquidity risk can increase substantially thus limiting the value of CDS spreads as market indicators. We conclude that equity prices and CDS premia should be considered together to fully exploit the information content of both market indicators and to mitigate their respective drawbacks.

Rating-based CDS curves

ABSTRACT

This paper explores the extent to which term structure of individual credit default swap (CDS) spreads can be explained by the firm's rating. Using the Nelson–Siegel model, we construct, for each day, CDS curves from a cross-section of CDS spreads for each rating class. We find that individual CDS deviations from the curve tend to diminish over time and CDS spreads converge towards the fitted curves. The likelihood of convergence increases with the absolute size of the deviation. The convergence is especially stable if CDS spreads are lower relative to the rating-based curve. Trading strategies exploiting the convergence generate an average return of 3.7% (5-day holding period) and 9% (20-day holding period).     

Price discovery of subordinated credit spreads for Japanese mega-banks: Evidence from bond and credit default swap markets

This paper investigates the determinants and dynamics of subordinated credit spreads for Japanese mega-banks using the bond and credit default swap (CDS) spreads. The main findings are as follows. Subordinated bond and CDS spreads are cointegrated in most cases, and the CDS spread plays a more dominant role in price discovery than the bond spread. In addition, there are significant volatility spillovers from the CDS to bond spread. This information leadership for the CDS spread can largely be explained by stronger reactions of the CDS spread to some financial market variables and bank-specific accounting variables than the bond spread.