Rural telephone in Indonesia and Thailand: Social and economic benefits

This article considers the need for telecommunications in the rural areas of Indonesia and Thailand. Using the findings from questionnaire surveys in the two countries, the authors examine how the telephone is used when limited facilities are available, the effects of telephone service in terms of improved communication and work efficiency, and the consequences of not having access to a telephone     

Forecast rationality and monetary policy frameworks: Evidence from UK interest rate forecasts

We find evidence of heterogeneity and irrationality among professional forecasts for three-month inter-bank rates and ten-year gilt yields at both short and long forecast horizons over the period 1989-2006. The majority of biased forecasts overestimate the future spot rate, consistent with slow adjustment to the declining trend in inflation and interest rates. Furthermore, we produce evidence indicating that both monetary policy actions and elements of communication policy have information content regarding the rationality of forecasts. Changes in official bank rates and disagreement among the Monetary Policy Committee influence the rationality of forecasts. The publication of inflation reports has no effect.     

Students,Patients, Citizens,and Believers as “Customers”: A Cross-National Exploratory Study

ABSTRACT

Executives in 94 large UK companies engaging in cause related marketing (CRM) completed a questionnaire concerning (i) their firms' approaches to the management and evaluation of CRM, (ii) the benefits perceived to accrue to the practice, and (iii) whether these businesses applied commercial rather than philanthropic principles when selecting CRM partners. It emerged that, in general, the sample firms employed mainly commercial criteria when choosing CRM projects, that selections were frequently influenced by employee opinion, and that most of the evaluation techniques conventionally used to appraise commercial sponsorship and advertising were also utilised to assess CRM programmes. Companies were reported to demand close and obvious links between their products and the activities of partner charities. Typically, they preferred to affiliate with well-known charities and tended to dislike “controversial” causes. In the main the respondents held low opinions of their charity partners' marketing abilities. The article concludes with a number of recommendations regarding the ways in which charities should formulate proposals when inviting businesses to participate in CRM programmes.     

The expectations hypothesis: New hope or illusory support?

Recent studies of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure (EHTS) find evidence in favor of the EHTS using post 1980s US data. This has been attributed to the relative macro stability of this period and greater market efficiency. Using a panel of forecasts for 3-month interest rates for ten countries we test separately for EHTS and rational expectations. Assuming rational expectations holds we find support for the EHTS is illusory due to an off-setting time-varying term premia and non-rational expectations. Previous forecast-based studies suggest biased expectations tend to reinforce the effect of a time varying term premium. This change can be understood in the context of Fama’s (2006) argument that markets tend to underestimate future spot rates during periods of long-run increases and overestimate during declines.     

Credit default swaps and the UK 2008–09 short sales ban

Most studies of the short sales ban of UK financial stocks from September 2008 to January 2009 fail to control for the UK’s worst ever banking crisis and the underlying increase in risk. This paper studies the ban’s impact on the 13 large financials with credit default swaps (CDS) and 20 smaller stocks without CDS. The results reveal that returns of banned stocks Granger cause CDS returns in the pre- and post-ban periods, but causality runs from CDS to stock returns during the ban period. Underlying risk proxied by the CDS probability of default increased during the ban and the immediate pre- and post-ban periods which highlights an endogeneity problem ignored in some studies. This increased risk provides a plausible rationale for why CDS and related equity bid-ask spreads - which increased during the ban period – failed to fall significantly in the post-ban period. Panel regression results indicate that probability of default was an important economic determinant of stock bid-ask spreads during the ban period. Finally, our results suggest that the ban offered direct price support for the smaller non-CDS stocks during the ban period and indirect support for CDS stocks from their pre-ban to their post-ban levels.