Diversification of Macroeconomic Risk and International Integration of Capital Markets: The Case of Mexico

This article tests the arbitrage pricing theory in the contextof the unstable macroeconomic years in Mexico, 1977–87.Using information on returns on assets available to domesticinvestors—primarily stocks traded at the local stock exchange—anattempt is made to ascertain the extent to which these assetshave offered premia for a set of proposed sources of risk. Thepervasive factors that play an important role in asset pricingin Mexico are unexpected inflation, unexpected money growth,innovations in the Standard & Poor's 500 price series, andinnovations in the dollar oil price. A residual market factoris obtained, using the McElroy and Burmeister model. Given thatthese risks get premia over and above the riskless rate, expectedrates of return in Mexico have been higher during the yearsof erratic macroeconomic conditions. Mexico is not consideredto be well integrated with the international capital marketsbecause local sources of risk—such as inflation—arenot priced in the United States, whereas international sourcesof uncertainty—such as oil price shocks—are pricedlocally but not in the United States.     

Measuring and Explaining the Impact of Productive Efficiency on Economic Development

A limitation of most empirical cross-country studies that focuson determinants of GDP or GDP growth is that they fail to distinguishexplicitly between inputs used in production and conditionsthat facilitate production. For example, physical capital, humancapital, and labor are production inputs, whereas the qualityof institutions, macroeconomic stability, and market qualityare conditions that facilitate production. This article takesthis distinction seriously and uses a stochastic frontier approachto study factors affecting economic performance. A panel dataset of 71 countries for the 1980–98 period is used toestimate a production frontier with physical capital, humancapital, and labor as inputs. The article also analyzes whatdrives productive efficiency, using the institutional framework,macroeconomic stability, market quality, and urbanization aspossible explanatory factors. Urbanization turns out to be animportant determinant, with the rule of law, inflation rate,and market quality also affecting productive efficiency.     

Auctions vs. Bookbuilding and the Control of Underpricing in Hot IPO Markets

Market returns before the offer price is set affect the amountand variability of initial public offering (IPO) underpricing.Thus an important question is "What IPO procedure is best adaptedfor controlling underpricing in "hot" versus "cold" market conditions?"The French stock market offers a unique arena for empiricalresearch on this topic, since three substantially differentissuing mechanisms (auctions, bookbuilding, and fixed price)are used there. Using 1992–1998 data, we find that theauction mechanism is associated with less underpricing and lowervariance of underpricing. We show that the auction procedure'sability to incorporate more information from recent market conditionsinto the IPO price is an important reason.     

Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia

The demographic transition—a change from high to low ratesof mortality and fertility—has been more dramatic in EastAsia during the twentieth century than in any other region orhistorical period. By introducing demographic variables intoan empirical model of economic growth, this article shows thatthis transition has contributed substantially to East Asia'sso-called economic miracle. The miracle occurred in part becauseEast Asia's demographic transition resulted in its working-agepopulation growing at a much faster rate than its dependentpopulation during 1965–90, thereby expanding the per capitaproductive capacity of East Asian economies. This effect wasnot inevitable; rather, it occurred because East Asian countrieshad social, economic, and political institutions and policiesthat allowed them to realize the growth potential created bythe transition. The empirical analyses indicate that populationgrowth has a purely transitional effect on economic growth;this effect operates only when the dependent and working-agepopulations are growing at different rates. These results implythat future demographic change will tend to depress growth ratesin East Asia, while it will promote more rapid economic growthin Southeast and South Asia.     

Modelos teóricos del capital humano y señalización: un estudio para México

The most common reference framework which assigns a prominent role to education for strengthening welfare and economic growth is represented by the human capital model. However, the theoretical approach of signaling implies that a process of greater support for education may have its limitations when it comes to generating impacts on macroeconomic growth. The aim of this study was to investigate if the empirical evidence available in Mexico on levels of schooling and returns to education responds to a human capital model or a model of signaling. A macroeconomic and a microeconomic model error correction were used. The results show that for the case of Mexico available information favors a model of human capital.     

The 1985 to 1994 Global Real Estate Cycle: An Overview

The globalization of financial markets is affecting real estate markets. During the period 1985 to 1994, a large number of countries experienced strong real estate booms that peaked around 1989 followed by severe asset price deflation and an output contraction that usually lasted until 1994. Global finance appears irreversible. Should we also expect the recurrence of real estate cycles of strong amplitude? Or does this first global cycle represent a one-time adjustment to global integration happening in many countries simultaneously? To facilitate further comparative analyses, this article inventories the international and domestic factors, in their macroeconomic and intrinsic real estate cycle dimensions, that contributed to this strong global cycle. This overview has three threads: What triggered this first global cycle? What has been its impact? Are there lessons for countries that are not yet fully integrated into global capital markets such as semireformed socialist economies, newly industrialized economies, and other developing countries?     

How do commodity futures respond to macroeconomic news?

This paper investigates the impact of seventeen US macroeconomic announcements on two broad and representative commodity futures indices. Based on a large sample from 1989 to 2005, we show that the daily price response of the CRB and GSCI commodity futures indices to macroeconomic news is state-dependent. During recessions, news about higher (lower) inflation and real activity lead to positive (negative) adjustments of commodity futures prices. In contrast, we find no significant reactions during economic expansions. We attribute this asymmetric response to the state-dependent interpretation of macroeconomic news. Our findings are robust to several alternative business cycle definitions.

This time is different: Causes and consequences of British banking instability over the long run

This paper addresses three questions: (1) How severe were the episodes of banking instability experienced by the UK over the past two centuries? (2) What have been the macroeconomic indicators of UK banking instability? and (3) What have been the consequences of UK banking instability for the cost of credit? Using a unique dataset of bank share prices from 1830 to 2010 to assess the stability of the UK banking system, we find that banking instability has grown more severe since the 1970s. We also find that interest rates, inflation, lending growth, and equity prices are consistent macroeconomic indicators of UK banking instability over the long run. Furthermore, utilising a unique dataset of corporate-bond yields for the period 1860 to 2010, we find that there is a significant long-run relationship between banking instability and the credit-risk premium faced by businesses.     

Top Indian Incomes, 1922-2000

This article presents data on the evolution of top incomes andwages for 1922–2000 in India using individual tax returndata. The data show that the shares of the top 0.01 percent,0.1 percent, and 1 percent in total income shrank substantiallyfrom the 1950s to the early to mid-1980s but then rose again,so that today these shares are only slightly below what theywere in the 1920s and 1930s. This U-shaped pattern is broadlyconsistent with the evolution of economic policy in India: Fromthe 1950s to the early to mid-1980s was a period of "socialist"policies in India, whereas the subsequent period, starting withthe rise of Rajiv Gandhi, saw a gradual shift toward more probusinesspolicies. Although the initial share of the top income groupwas small, the fact that the rich were getting richer had anontrivial impact on the overall income distribution. Althoughthe impact is not large enough to fully explain the gap observedduring the 1990s between average consumption growth shown inNational Sample Survey–based data and the national accounts–baseddata, it is sufficiently large to explain a nonnegligible partof it (20–40 percent).     

Patterns of Transition from Plan to Market

The transition from a planned economy to a market economy involvesa complex process of institutional, structural, and behavioralchange. This article develops an index of economic liberalizationand analyzes its interaction with growth and inflation, usingdata from twenty-six transition countries for 1989–94.The article reveals two paradoxes of transition. First, theattempt to maintain output by subsidizing enterprises resultsin larger declines in output than occur under a policy of reducingsubsidies. Second, price liberalization results in lower inflationthan occurs under a policy of continued price controls. Strong common patterns exist among countries at similar stagesof reform. The common legacy and the associated changes thatresult from initial disruptions in the socialist economic coordinatingmechanisms and subsequent liberalization measures go a longway toward explaining the transition experience. Because stronginteractions between liberalization and stabilization are likely,stabilization becomes a priority for the resumption of growth.     

Determining underlying macroeconomic fundamentals during emerging market crises: Are conditions as bad as they seem?

Emerging market crises are characterized by large swings in both macroeconomic fundamentals and asset prices. The economic significance of observed movements in macroeconomic variables is obscured by the brief and extreme nature of crises. In this paper we propose to study the macroeconomic consequences of crises by studying the behavior of “effective” fundamentals, constructed by studying the relative movements of stock prices during crises. We find that these effective fundamentals provide a different picture than that implied by observed fundamentals. First, asset prices often reflect expectations of improvement in fundamentals after the initial devaluations; specifically, effective depreciations are positive but not as large as the observed ones. Second, crises vary in their effect on credit market conditions, with investors expecting tightening of credit in some cases (Mexico 1994, Philippines 1997), but loosening of credit in others (Sweden 1992, Korea 1997, Brazil 1999).     

Calm After the Storms: Income Distribution and Welfare in Chile, 1987-94

After rising during most—but not all—of the 1960–85period, inequality in Chile seems to have stabilized since around1987. Following the stormy period of economic and politicalreforms of the 1970s and 1980s, no statistically significantLorenz dominance results could be detected since 1987. Scalarmeasures of inequality confirm this picture of stability, butsuggest a slight change in the shape of the density function,with some compression at the bottom being "compensated for"by a stretching at the top. As inequality remained broadly stable,sustained economic growth led to substantial welfare improvementsand poverty reduction, according to a range of measures andwith respect to three different poverty lines. Poverty mixedstochastic dominance tests confirm this result. All of thesefindings are robust to different choices of equivalence scales.     

Rural Poverty: Old Challenges in New Contexts

Poverty is still a predominantly rural phenomenon. However,the context of rural poverty has been changing across the world,with high growth in some economies and stagnation in others.Furthermore, increased openness in many economies has affectedthe specific role of agricultural growth for rural poverty reduction.This paper revisits an ‘old’ question: how doesgrowth and poverty reduction come about if most of the poorlive in rural areas and are dependent on agriculture? What isthe role of agricultural and rural development in this respect?Focusing on Sub-Saharan Africa, and using economic theory andthe available evidence, the author comes to the conclusion thatchanging contexts has meant that agricultural growth is onlycrucial as an engine for growth in particular settings, morespecifically in landlocked, resource-poor countries, which areoften also characterized by relatively low potential for agriculture.However, extensive market failures in key factor markets andlikely spatial effects give a remaining crucial role for ruraldevelopment policies, including focusing on agriculture, toassist the inclusion of the rural poor in growth and development.How to overcome these market failures remains a key issue forfurther research. JEL codes: O41, Q10, O55     

Oil, Macroeconomics, and Forests: Assessing the Linkages

How does an oil boom affect the forest cover of tropical oil-exportingcountries? What macroeconomic linkages and policies are decisive?A comparison of research findings on long-run land-use changesin eight tropical developing economies reveals that the directphysical impacts of the oil industry on forests are unquestionablyless than its derived macroeconomic impact. In most cases oilwealth indirectly but significantly protects tropical forests.The core mechanism is that oil rents cause macroeconomic "Dutchdisease" decreasing the price competitiveness of agricultureand logging, strongly diminishing pressures for forest degradationand deforestation. But domestic policy responses to oil wealthare also vital determinants of the forest outcome. When governmentsuse oil wealth for urban spending sprees, this reinforces thecore effect by pulling more labor out of land-using and forest-degradingactivities. When oil revenues finance road construction or frontiercolonization, however, the core forest-protective effect canbe reversed. Repeated currency devaluation and import protectionof land-using domestic sectors also increase pressures on forests.Other international capital transfers, like bilateral credits,aid, or debt relief, can have impacts similar to those of oilwealth, either alleviating pressures on forests or aggravatingspecific forest-detrimental policies. These insights point toforest-friendly safeguards that can realistically be made inthe design of structural adjustment programs, considering theimportant tradeoffs between development and conservation objectives.      

Can digital financial inclusion promote China's economic growth?

Can digital financial inclusion as an emerging and innovative financial service promote economic growth? Based on a Bayesian macroeconomic analysis framework, this paper introduces the level of Internet development as a threshold variable, analyzes the impact of digital financial inclusion on economic growth based on provincial panel data from 2011 to 2019 in China, and finally explores the mediating effect of digital financial inclusion on economic growth through a multiple mediation model. The results show that ① digital financial inclusion development has a significant contribution to economic growth. ② The impact of digital financial inclusion development on economic growth has a significant Internet threshold effect. ③Promoting small and medium-sized enterprise entrepreneurship and stimulating residents' consumption are two important channels through which digital financial inclusion development affects economic growth.     

Modeling the Impact of Agricultural Growth and Government Policy on Income Distribution in India

This article uses a limited general equilibrium model to investigatethe growth and equity effects of a variety of economic and technicalchanges and selected agricultural policies in India. It exploreshow changes in food prices, rural wages, and farm profits associatedwith the Green Revolution period affected income distributionbetween net buyers and sellers of food. The model shows thatincome gains from the Green Revolution initially accrued tothe wealthier rural groups but that after 1972–73 theywere transferred to urban consumers and that by 1980–81the per capita incomes of poor and wealthier rural groups alikewere barely above their respective 1960–61 levels. Themodel is also used in counterfactual analysis of the impactof changes in technological, demographic, investment, taxation,and income redistribution variables. Its findings indicate theimportance of trade policies for the nature of the equity outcomesfrom agricultural growth and suggest that a reduction in populationgrowth and an increase in nonagricultural employment and incomeare required to convert agricultural growth into reduced ruralpoverty.     

Creditor Protection and Credit Response to Shocks

This article studies the relationship between creditor protectionand credit responses to macroeconomic shocks. Using a data seton legal determinants of finance in a panel of data on aggregatecredit growth for 79 countries during 1990–2004, it isshown that credit is more responsive to external shocks in countrieswith weak legal creditor protection and weak enforcement. Theresults are statistically and economically significant and robustto alternative measures of creditor protection, to the inclusionof variables that reflect different stages of economic development,to the restriction of the sample to only developing economies,to the controls for systemic crises, to alternative shock measures,and to vector autoregressive specifications.     

Short- and Long-Term Effects of United Nations Peace Operations

In an earlier study Doyle and Sambanis (2000) [Doyle, MichaelW., and Nicholas Sambanis. 2000. "International Peacebuilding:A Theoretical and Quantitative Analysis." American PoliticalScience Review 94(4):779–801.] showed that United Nations(UN) peace operations have made positive contributions to peacebuildingin the short term, helping parties implement peace agreements.But are the effects of UN peace operations lasting? Becausethe UN cannot fight wars, such operations should not be usedto enforce a peace. Peacekeeping operations contribute moreto the quality of the peace—that is, to securing morethan the mere absence of war—than to its duration, becausethe effects of such operations dissipate over time. For peaceto be self-sustaining, countries must develop institutions andpolicies that generate economic growth. UN peacebuilding lacksa strategy for fostering self-sustaining economic growth thatcould connect increased participation with sustainable peace.The international community would benefit from an evolutionthat uses economic reforms to plug the gap between peacekeepingand humanitarian assistance on the one hand and developmenton the other.     

Credit risk drivers: Evaluating the contribution of firm level information and of macroeconomic dynamics

Understanding if credit risk is driven mostly by idiosyncratic firm characteristics or by systematic factors is an important issue for the assessment of financial stability. By exploring the links between credit risk and macroeconomic developments, we observe that in periods of economic growth there may be some tendency towards excessive risk-taking. Using an extensive dataset with detailed information for more than 30 000 firms, we show that default probabilities are influenced by several firm-specific characteristics. When time-effect controls or macroeconomic variables are also taken into account, the results improve substantially. Hence, though the firms’ financial situation has a central role in explaining default probabilities, macroeconomic conditions are also very important when assessing default probabilities over time.     

Oil price dynamics,macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation

What is the role of financial speculation in determining the real oil price? We find that while macroeconomic shocks have been the main real oil price upward driver since mid-1980s, financial shocks have sizably contributed since early 2000s as well, and at a much larger extent since mid-2000s. Even though financial shocks contribute 44% out of the 65% real oil price increase over the period 2004–2010, the third oil price shock is a macro-finance episode: macroeconomic shocks actually largely account for the 2007–2008 oil price swing. While we then find support to the demand side view of real oil price determination, we however also find a much larger role for financial shocks than previously noted in the literature.