Affordable retirement: light at the end of the tunnel

Compared to previous studies, the 2004 Replacement Ratio Study from Aon Consulting/Georgia State University shows an increase in the amount of income today's workers need at retirement to maintain their preretirement standard of living. After describing the study's replacement ratio findings, the authors estimate lump sums needed at retirement and required adjustments for both nonincreasing annuities and retiree medical expenses. They then describe steps innovative plan sponsors can take to encourage participants to understand and undertake their responsibility to acquire the substantial personal savings needed for a comfortable retirement.     

Making Federal Pension Policy Work

Abstract

Millions of Americans retire while they are still productive. Of these, many will have the resources to enjoy all of their golden years. Unfortunately, many others will face economic hardships after they have exhausted their own resources but have become too frail to return to work. Part of the problem is that the current pension system is fraught with financial incentives that push ablebodied elderly workers into retirement just when they should instead be encouraged to remain in the workforce to accumulate additional retirement assets. This paper recommends a number of ways to change federal pension laws in order to encourage elderly workers to remain in the workforce. For example, this paper recommends toughening the penalty on premature distributions, repealing the minimum distribution rules, and repealing the exceptions to the Age Discrimination in Employment Act that permit retirement plans to provide early retirement incentives and subsidies.

This paper also considers whether the government should require that all retirement plans be neutral as to the timing of retirement. In an age-neutral world, workers would always accrue more benefits if they kept working. Consequently, more workers would remain in the workforce, accumulating additional assets for their eventual retirement.

Finally, this paper also considers how federal pension policy could help counteract the tendency of Americans to retire too early because they underestimate their life expectancies, overestimate their financial resources, and fail to understand the deleterious effects of inflation. In particular, this paper recommends that the government require that virtually all retirement plans pay at least a portion of their benefits in the form of an inflation-adjusted annuity.     

A Note on the Tax Treatment of Private Pensions and Individual Savings Accounts

The UK government is planning to introduce stakeholder pensions from April 2001 as an alternative to existing personal pensions for people on moderate earnings. But stakeholder pensions are only one way to save for retirement; the new tax‐free Individual Savings Account (ISA) is another. This note compares the tax treatments of pensions and ISAs and assesses the conditions under which the tax treatment of private pensions is more generous than that of an ISA to a basicrate taxpayer – the typical target for stakeholder pensions. The abolition of dividend tax credits paid to pension funds in July 1997 reduced the relatively tax‐favoured position of pensions, but the tax‐free lump sum means that private pensions continue to be a tax‐favoured form of saving at most reasonable rates of return. We show that employer contributions to private pensions are particularly tax‐favoured.     

How Did the Elimination of the US Earnings Test above the Normal Retirement Age Affect Labour Supply Expectations?*

We look at the effect of the 2000 repeal of the earnings test above the normal retirement age on retirement expectations of workers in the Health and Retirement Study, aged 51 to 61 in 1992. For men, we find that those whose marginal wage rate increased when the earnings test was repealed, had the largest increase in the probability to work full-time past normal retirement age. We do not find significant evidence of effects of the repeal of the earnings test on the probability to work past age 62 or the expected claiming age. On the other hand, for those reaching the normal retirement age, deviations between the age at which Social Security benefits are actually claimed and the previously reported expected age are more negative in 2000 than in 1998. Since our calculations show that the tax introduced by the earnings test was small when accounting for actuarial benefit adjustments and differential mortality, our results suggest that although male workers form expectations in a way consistent with forward-looking behavior, they misperceive the complicated rules of the earnings test. Results for females suggest similar patterns but estimates are imprecise.     

延迟退休年龄、内生生育率与养老金

本文通过构建内生生育率的OLG模型,从微观视角考察了延迟退休年龄对生育率、养老金替代率及其个人养老金收入的影响。研究表明:(1)延迟退休年龄会提高均衡时的生育率水平,但提高幅度非常有限。(2)生育率的提高会增加未来劳动力供给,促进养老金替代率上升和养老金收入增加,而延迟退休年龄延长了养老保险缴费期限,也会促进养老金替代率上升和养老金收入增加;但同时,延迟退休年龄将使得预防性储蓄下降,资本积累降低,工资收入下降,养老金收入降低。因此,延迟退休年龄会使养老金替代率上升。当资本产出弹性大于或等于0.5时,延迟退休年龄会使得养老金收入降低;当资本产出弹性小于0.5时,在平均预期寿命较大或养老保险缴费比例较高的情形下,养老金收入会随着退休年龄的延迟而增加,反之,其会随着退休年龄的延迟而降低。进一步地,将模型拓展到包含人力资本的情形,延迟退休年龄仍会提高均衡时的生育率与养老金替代率。     

Valuation, optimal asset allocation and retirement incentives of pension plans

We provide a framework in which we link the valuation and assetallocation policies of defined benefits plans with the lifetimemarginal productivity schedule of the worker and the pensionplan formula. In turn, we examine the retirement policies thatare implied by the primitives of the model and the value ofpension obligations. Our model provides an explicit valuationformula for a stylized defined benefits plan. The optimal assetallocation policies consist of the replicating portfolio independentof the pension liabilities. We show that the worker with retirewhen the ratio of pension benefits to current wages reachesa critical value which depends on the parameters of the pensionplan and the discount rate. Using numerical techniques we analyzethe feedback effect of retirement policies on the valuationof plans and on the asset allocation decisions.     

Pension Wealth Uncertainty

Using a representative sample of Italian investors, we measure the uncertainty of social security benefits by eliciting for each individual the subjective distribution of the replacement rate as a summary indicator of pension uncertainty. We find that pension uncertainty varies across individuals in a way that is consistent with what one would expect a priori, given different information sets and pension schemes. In particular, individuals who are a long way from retirement, and thus face more career uncertainty, report more subjective pension uncertainty. Since expectations reveal information about people's understanding of pension reforms, our findings suggest that they should also be an important determinant of how people respond to reforms.     

Public Pension Reform in the United Kingdom: What Effect on the Financial Well‐Being of Current and Future Pensioners?*

Unlike many tax and benefit changes, reforms to public pension programmes take many years to have their full effect. This paper examines the effect of reforms to the public pension programme in the United Kingdom on the state retirement incomes of current generations of pensioners and on the prospective state incomes of future generations of pensioners. We show that, for an individual with lifetime earnings close to male average earnings, the UK pension system is at its most generous to those reaching the state pension age around the year 2000, but that the introduction of the state second pension and the pension credit postpones this peak for individuals on lower incomes and for those with substantial periods out of paid employment spent with caring responsibilities. We also consider how the ‘mix’ of benefits, particularly between the contributory and income‐tested sectors, could change over time, and the impact that this would have on incentives to save for retirement.     

Quality of life aspirations: Exploring baby-boomer financial means-end goal structures

Motivated by industry concerns that baby-boomers are neglecting to plan for an eventual retirement, this study examines perceptions about the importance of financial means in contributing to their quality of life. Framed by means-end chain analysis and scholarship in consumer evaluations of life satisfaction, a number of theoretical expectations are empirically confirmed. Findings indicate that financial means are not high in the order of life domains that contribute to respondent quality of life. Retirement planning relies predominantly on compulsory superannuation contributions from employers, with the assumption that this would provide sufficient income to maintain their current lifestyle. Prior to retirement, respondents reported being more preoccupied with funding children's education costs and home mortgage payments. They also wished to avoid the embarrassment of approaching a financial planner until they had a reasonable sum that required more skilful investment advice. Finally, it was revealed that gender had an influence on the priority given to financial means and subsequent decisions to seek financial planning advice. These findings confirm the importance for financial planners to determine the core motivations and subordinate means through which baby-boomers envisage achieving quality of life on the journey into retirement.     

Economics of welfare: The implications of demographic change for Europe

The author reviews some factors that may necessitate a re-examination of social policy. Since the Second World War the proportion of people aged 65 and over has increased by half in some countries. The probable decline in the age of retirement will further strain resources, and continuing inflation and recession would reduce revenue and increase the cost of benefits.     

Maximum Withdrawal Rates: A Novel and Useful Tool

Even after accumulating a portfolio of investment assets, retirees still need to know how much of their wealth they can spend each year without risking running out of money before they die. Traditionally, financial advisers use extensive simulation to predict a “failure rate” (i.e. the probability of a retiree running out of money before they die). Unfortunately, the failure rate approach is flawed because strategies with the same failure rate may not be comparable overall. For example, different withdrawal strategies may have the same failure rate but wind up leaving significantly different amounts of wealth behind. Instead of failure rate, this author recommends using the maximum withdrawal rate, or MWR, approach that predetermines a desired bequest (which could be zero or some positive sum), thus enabling an apples‐to‐apples comparison of retirement strategies. In addition to permitting direct comparisons of retirement strategies, the MWR provides a way to assess how likely a retiree is to sustain a target sequence of inflation‐adjusted withdrawals. This is the main advantage of the MWR; it is a single tool that can be used to explore two of the most important issues in retirement analysis. The MWR as presented here is essentially a measure of the best a retiree could have done had he known the future returns of his portfolio. Obviously, one cannot be sure of future rates of return ahead of time, so the MWR does not eliminate all retirement risk. That said, its adoption would be an improvement upon current practice.     

A social security fallacy

The article investigates whether compulsory old age provisions are justified from an economic point of view. According to a standard argument, some people would not provide sufficiently for their old age in the absence of a compulsory pension system — they would become a charge to the public. This free rider problem can be solved by mandatory lump sum contributions. However, if contributions depend on labour income, as they do in reality, potential free riders consider them as payroll taxes — even if the pension system is fully funded and actuarially fair. Therefore, compulsory contributions which are related to earned income do not solve an economic problem which cannot be tackled by the tax system as well. Put differently, there exists no economic justification for compulsory contributions, the standard argument is simply false.     

Valuing the Longevity Insurance Acquired by Delayed Claiming of Social Security

Individuals can claim Social Security at any age from 62 to 70, although most claim at 62. We show that expected present value calculations substantially understate both the optimal claim age and the losses resulting from early claiming because they ignore the value of the additional longevity insurance acquired because of delay. Using numerical optimization techniques, we illustrate that the optimal claim age is between 67 and 70. We calculate that the amount by which benefits payable at suboptimal ages must be increased so that a household is indifferent between claiming at those ages and the optimal combination of ages can be as high as 19.0 percent.     

Optimal retirement time under habit persistence: what makes individuals retire early?

As the effective labor market exit observed in most OECD countries is lower than the corresponding official retirement age, the question concerning the driving factors for an early retirement decision arises. This paper incorporates the optimal retirement decision in an optimal consumption and asset allocation problem in order to analyze, among others, the effect of habit forming preferences and diverse leisure preferences for earlier retirement. We compare two possible situations for the retirement phase: (a) the individual is allowed to freely consume and invest; (b) he annuitizes his wealth at retirement and consumes the annuity income. We find that early retirement is optimal if leisure gain through earlier retirement is highly appreciated or the standard of living (habit level) is low. Additionally, our numerical results show that high initial wealth or low labor income lead to early retirement, confirming observations of Fields & Mitchell.     

Impact of Replacing a Defined Benefit Pension with a Defined Contribution Plan or a Cash Balance Plan

Abstract

Four pension plan conversions are examined to determine the impact on retirement benefits of workers. The study was based on interviews with top management, employee surveys, and actuarial analysis of retirement benefits under the old and new pension plans. In general, workers who leave the firm prior to the age of early retirement can expect increased benefits under the new defined contribution and cash balance plans, whereas older, more senior workers can expect to accrue smaller benefits after the plan conversions. Recognizing these potential adverse effects, the employers in our studies provided various types of transition benefits to existing workers or gave employees the choice of remaining in the old defined benefit plan. Employee surveys reveal that younger workers are more supportive of the new pension plans than are older workers. These case studies also indicate that communication by managements with their employees is very important to the successful implementation of plan conversions.     

Issues for Implementing Phased Retirement in Defined Benefit Plans

Abstract

U.S. society is aging. The nature of work has changed from work that requires physical strength to work based on knowledge. As a result, workers are beginning to phase into retirement rather than going directly from full-time work to full retirement. From a retirement income perspective, many final-average-pay defined benefit plans have features that make phased retirement difficult at best and detrimental at worst. U.S. pension law and regulations present barriers to phased retirement if the phased retiree wants to receive a portion of available pension benefits during phased retirement.

This paper examines private sector options to encourage phased retirement and to eliminate the disincentives that currently affect defined benefit plans. It offers alternative calculations of final average pay that do not penalize the part-time worker. It also demonstrates that the plan’s early retirement reduction and late retirement increase can be set to maintain actuarial equity throughout phased retirement. The paper presents benefit calculations with equal actuarial values for various payout patterns.

The paper discusses the coordination between phased retirement and subsidized early retirement. Finally, the paper notes some of the changes in ERISA that will be needed to facilitate phased retirement in defined benefit plans, especially for participants who want to receive pension distributions while working part time.     

An analysis of the Medical Savings Account as an alternative retirement savings Vehicle

Personal savings as a percentage of disposable income have dropped steadily since the early 1980s. Savings have continued to decline in 1999, as the savings rate—savings as a percentage of after-tax income—dropped to a record low of minus 0.7% in April 1999, according to the Department of Commerce. The study finds that MSA-type accounts are a viable supplement to retirement savings, but should not be used as a replacement for existing retirement alternatives given their current structure. Results show that future health care expenditures are an important factor in the success or failure of MSAs as supplemental retirement accounts. Medical Savings Accounts are currently eligible for long-term care expenses, and to the extent that such expenses occur during retirement, MSA balances could be used to pay for retirement expenses. In that respect the accounts already capture the characteristics of a retirement savings account. A comparison of the Roth IRA with the MSA as defined by the 1996 HIPAA legislation is also conducted.     

Longevity risk, retirement savings, and financial innovation

Over the last couple of decades unprecedented increases in life expectancy have raised important concerns for retirement savings. We solve a life-cycle model with longevity risk, which can be hedged through endogenous saving and retirement decisions. We investigate the benefits of financial assets designed to hedge the shocks to survival probabilities. When longevity risk is calibrated to match forward-looking projections, those benefits are substantial. This lends support to the idea that such hedging should be pursued by defined benefit pension plans on behalf of their beneficiaries. Finally, we draw implications for optimal security design.     

The value of honesty: empirical estimates from the case of the missing children

How much are people willing to forego to be honest, to follow the rules? When people do break the rules, what can standard data sources tell us about their behavior? Standard economic models of crime typically assume that individuals are indifferent to dishonesty, so that they will cheat or lie as long as the expected pecuniary benefits exceed the expected costs of being caught and punished. We investigate this presumption by studying the response to a change in tax reporting rules that made it much more difficult for taxpayers to evade taxes by inappropriately claiming additional dependents. The policy reform induced a substantial reduction in the number of dependents claimed, which indicates that many filers had been cheating before the reform. Yet, the number of filers who availed themselves of this evasion opportunity is dwarfed by the number of filers who passed up substantial tax savings by not claiming extra dependents. By declining the opportunity to cheat, these taxpayers reveal information about their willingness to pay to be honest. In our analysis, we develop a novel method for inferring the characteristics of taxpayers in the absence of audit data. Our findings indicate both that this willingness to pay to be honest is large on average and that it varies significantly across the population of taxpayers.