经济周期、信贷周期叠加贸易摩擦下的去杠杆路径

当前我国宏观杠杆率总体趋稳,去杠杆取得了一定成效,去杠杆的重点仍是地方政府和国企部门以及房地产、产能过剩领域。宏观杠杆率与促进经济增长之间存在着某种稳态关系,稳杠杆应着力于合理把控债务增速与GDP增速的关系。企业杠杆率的下降有赖于产权比率的降低、 ROE的提升和总负债增速的下降,通过提升创利水平来降杠杆是可取之道。信贷周期和金融周期均受经济周期波动影响,经济下行期叠加贸易摩擦背景下,宽泛的去杠杆会加大经济下行压力。去杠杆应注重杠杆资源优化配置,纠正杠杆错配,鼓励和支持好的合理的杠杆,降低落后的、过剩的、低效的杠杆,从而提高杠杆资源利用效率;去杠杆还应注重与监管周期协调,疏通货币政策传导机制,深化利率市场化改革,并发挥信贷政策导向作用,增强金融服务实体经济的意愿和效能。     

为什么国有企业是我国经济去杠杆的重中之重

本文从三个方面论述我国经济去杠杆的核心是国有企业。首先,杠杆率结构的国际比较表明,非金融企业是实体部门杠杆率快速上升的主因,而国有企业杠杆率过高则是非金融企业债务问题的关键;其次,国有企业高杠杆本质上是资产周转率大幅下降的体现;再次,实证结果显示,国有企业杠杆率高企已对投资产生"抑制效应",而非国有经济仍有较大的投资增长潜能。因此,国有企业是去杠杆改革的主要着力点。最后,本文系统性地提出降低国有企业杠杆率的政策措施。     

日美去杠杆对中国的借鉴北大核心CSSCISSCI

谈到日本的经济问题,人们一般会习惯性地想起日本在20世纪90年代初的资产泡沫破灭和经济硬着陆以及"失去的二十年",但大家对日本经济"失去的二十年"的原因却看法不一。反观美国,2008年史无前例的次贷危机后,仅仅七年后经济就呈现强劲复苏之势。当前,中国正面临金融监管加强和金融去杠杆的紧迫任务,如何借鉴日美经济的去杠杆经历,选择中国式去杠杆的可行路径,已经成为非常现实的问题。本文认为,中国经济更现实的选择是稳杠杆和转杠杆,重点是通过金融监管体制和激励约束机制改革,降低金融部门的杠杆率,以此来带动国企和地方政府降杠杆。     

居民杠杆率快速上升挤出消费了么?

国内一些专家学者认为,近几年来,我国社会消费品零售总额增速下滑,消费出现降级,导致居民杠杆率快速上升并挤出了居民消费。不过,本文通过研究发现该论断未考虑到日益增长的居民服务消费,忽视了消费升级现象和无法解释美日危机前消费增速持续高位等问题。究其原因,一是房价持续上升时期居民家庭杠杆率提升,对消费的拉动效应大于挤出效应,会促进消费;二是经验表明宏观层面居民总杠杆率处于合理区间,居民加杠杆和消费增长就会始终存在;三是我国居民实际杠杆率目前不高,还有较大上升空间。因此,当前的工作重点不是降低居民总杠杆率,而是应重点防范低收入人群的结构性加杠杆风险。     

疫情下中国宏观杠杆率的新变化、风险与应对策略

2020年在新冠疫情冲击下,逆周期调控政策推动宏观杠杆率快速攀升,表明自2015年起的去杠杆进程告一段落。与2008-2014年加杠杆阶段相比,2020年各部门加杠杆的结构、渠道、期限出现新变化。非金融企业部门加杠杆的主体发生变化,国企杠杆率趋于下降,私营企业负债快速增加。"房住不炒"下居民平稳加杠杆,贷款增速有所回落。政府部门对宏观杠杆率增幅贡献率上升,中央政府承担支出责任的主动性提高,地方政府市场化融资水平提升。总的来看,宏观杠杆率快速上升缓冲了疫情负面影响,促进金融服务实体经济,但也提高了企业、居民债务风险,加重了地方财政收支平衡的压力。当前,要处理好稳增长和防风险的关系,稳定宏观杠杆率,有序处置各部门债务风险,健全多层次资本市场,提高直接融资占比。     

实体经济各部门杠杆率、房地产价格与金融风险联动研究

本文首先从资产负债表关联的视角,对实体经济各部门杠杆率和金融风险的联动进行了理论分析;然后利用或有权益分析法和预期损失法测度了我国系统性金融风险;最后基于门限结构向量自回归(T-SVAR)模型,刻画了在不同房价区制下杠杆率和金融风险的相互影响.研究表明:(1)房地产价格与各部门杠杆率互相推动;(2)总体上居民在一定程度上承担了政府和企业的债务风险,并推高了金融风险;(3)低房价阶段,各部门杠杆率和金融风险互相降低,说明银行信贷此时投放比较理性,有加杠杆的空间;(4)在高房价阶段,政府杠杆率上升导致企业杠杆率和金融风险提高,金融风险则降低了政府杠杆率,说明此时应该侧重控制政府债务积累;(5)各部门杠杆率增速上升也会提高系统性金融风险.因此,对居民杠杆率增速过快、政府债务和高房价的联动需格外关注;同时,应该稳定房价,促进金融稳定.     

关于建立地方政府债务管理体系的研究

我国政府应对2007年美国次贷危机发生对全球的金融、经济发展的融资方案带来的负面影响影响至今。四万亿的救市计划虽然避免了中国经济"硬着陆",却令整个社会的杠杆率不断上升,债务规模迅速扩大。由于近年来我国中央政府和地方政府逐渐出现事权和财权不匹配,地方政府为完成资金匹配和追求政绩,形成"政府担保、银行放款"模式。根据财政部数据显示,我国地方政府债务截止到2015年达到16万亿元。巨大的还款压力也影响地方政府的信用和经济社会健康可持续发展。本文结合我国地方债务管理研究现状,结合国外发达国家政府管理相关经验,对我国建立地方政府债务管理体系进行初探研究。     

中国经济杠杆率水平评估及潜在风险研究

近年来,有关我国经济杠杆率高低的讨论非常激烈。有学者运用一些基于经验总结的判断标准,认为当前我国经济已处于高杠杆区间,存在着较大的潜在风险。本文在梳理国内外有关研究成果的基础上,对我国经济的杠杆率进行了评估和结构分析。分析结果表明,当前我国经济的杠杆率水平总体可控。当前的最大风险不是杠杆率的绝对水平,而是地方政府和非金融企业杠杆率较高的结构性风险,以及经济增速逐渐下行所可能引发的债务偿还风险。当前我国不宜实施过急的去杠杆行为,而应该用好、用活目前仍然存在的杠杆率空间,优化债务结构,在经济增长过程中逐步降低杠杆率水平。     

中国降杠杆的新思路

自2009年开始,中国杠杆率开始持续上升,这被认为是当前中国经济增长持续低迷的罪魁祸首。当前央行实行的紧缩信贷的去杠杆方式负面影响大,不能解决高杠杆的问题。本文通过分析中国杠杆率高企的内在原因,探求降杠杆的新思路。     

杠杆率、债务风险与金融稳定——基于理论和中国经济杠杆率的实证分析北大核心SSCI

危机以来,金融机构"去杠杆化"及其伴随的主权债务风险上升、经济增速放缓引起了各国的高度关注。IMF认为,主权债务风险将是未来影响全球金融稳定的最主要因素之一。当前中国正步入增速放缓、结构转型升级的新常态,债务风险问题也备受关注,中国经济各部门的债务率(杠杆率)发生了哪些变化,蕴含了何种风险,未来该如何应对?本文对杠杆率与经济增长、金融稳定之间的作用进行理论探源,并通过实证分析研究我国各经济主体杠杆率的构成及变化,并与其他国家进行对比,以期捕捉我国金融体系的脆弱环节和风险薄弱领域。     

Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

The development of the group accounts disclosure system in Japan

The Japanese disclosure system of consolidated statements was introduced in 1977 and extensively revised in 1997. The role of the bureaucracy has been significant in these developments and seems to be part of Japan's closed culture. However, other explanations could also be applied. In particular, although Japanese firms opposed such disclosures on the basis of preparation costs, the Japanese government had to modernize the disclosure system, including consolidation, in order to develop the securities market regardless of an individual company's interests.     

Moments of Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the moments and the descending factorial moments about a point n of mixed Poisson and compound mixed Poisson distributions, in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. As byproduct, we also obtain recursive formulae for the evaluation of the moments about the origin, central moments, descending and ascending factorial moments of these distributions. Examples are also presented for a number of mixing densities.     

The designing of corporate accounting law in Japan after the Second World War

After the Second World War, during the neutralization of the controlled economy of wartime Japan, a design for a Corporate Accounting Law was elaborated by the Investigation Committee on the Business Accounting System. The Investigation Committee tried to establish not only new business accounting standards but also a central and independent administrative organ of corporate accounting regulation on the basis of the Corporate Accounting Law. The Corporate Accounting Law was expected to lay the legal foundation of the new corporate accounting regulation regime in Japan. Nevertheless, even though the original design of the fundamental accounting law was never realized, it should be considered the starting point for our understanding of external accounting history in post-war Japan.     

Disclosure of government financial information and the cost of local government’s debt financing——Empirical evidence from provincial investment bonds for urban construction

China’s slowing economic growth and rapid urbanization have made local government debt financing a significant issue.This study uses a sample of China’s provinc...     

The deliberation around accounting techniques: accounting for depreciation and foreign exchange in an Indian jute company, 1870-1900

This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.     

Short-sale refinancing and price adjustment speed to bad news: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Short selling may accelerate stock price adjustment to negative news. However, the literature provides mixed evidence for this prediction. Using short-sale refinancing and a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model, this paper explores the effect of short selling on stock price adjustment. Our results show that (1) short-sale refinancing improves the speed of stock price adjustment to negative news. This result holds after we control for endogeneity. (2) The positive relationship between short-sale refinancing and stock price adjustment speed is significant in subsamples of stocks with higher earnings management or lower accuracy of analyst forecasts, indicating that firms with more opaque information are more likely to be targeted by short sellers. In subsamples of stocks with a higher ownership concentration or lower ownership by institutional investors, short selling is more likely to increase the speed of stock price adjustment, indicating that ownership structure may influence negative news mining. (3) As short-sale refinancing exacerbates the absorption of bad news by stock prices, it increases crash risk. This study enriches the research on the economic consequences of short selling and provides empirical evidence supporting regulations on short selling in China.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

【正】The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing ...     

Pricing Dynamic Insurance Risks Using the Principle of Equivalent Utility

We introduce an expected utility approach to price insurance risks in a dynamic financial market setting. The valuation method is based on comparing the maximal expected utility functions with and without incorporating the insurance product, as in the classical principle of equivalent utility. The pricing mechanism relies heavily on risk preferences and yields two reservation prices - one each for the underwriter and buyer of the contract. The framework is rather general and applies to a number of applications that we extensively analyze.